So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

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  1. Comment on Comres Poll:

    Nothing really new. This poll appears entirely consistent with the general sense coming from all the polls of two parties that are basically neck and neck overall.

    In sum: polldrums now for yet another week.

  2. @ Rivers10

    YouGov NowCast also gives about 5% go GP in Wirral West. Quite a few academics from the two universities live there, so some of these could be in the Green camp, also left leaders, who don’t like Labour.

    Unless every single UKIP and many LiBDem voters give their votes to the Conservatives, Labour will have it. The Green voters may just stay at home (unless they feel that without them the Conservatives get in). I haven’t been everywhere in the constituency of course, but the poster scene looked pretty laboury.

  3. Labour are releasing a ‘manifesto for the countryside’. I wonder what will be in it. Hopefully something better than 2010. In that election I remember the Conservatives going big on farming issues, Lib Dems targeting village issues and Labour putting forward ‘access to the countryside’. Access to the countryside spoke to no one in rural areas. This inability to connect with rural issues needs addressing pronto.

  4. Leaders = leaners

  5. @Catsowyn

    The Comres/ITN poll of Labour/Conservative marginals is about as useful as last week’s version of LD/Conservative marginals. That is, not very as we have no idea how the percentages break down across the seats.

    I disagree. It provides independent corroborative evidence that the ElectionForecast model is almost precisely on target in projecting Lab/Con differences across these critical marginal seats.

  6. Laszlo

    I was of course being facetious, but the sense in which I was using “evidence based policy” was the same as “evidence based medicine” i.e. evidence that it works, not evidence that it is popular.

  7. @Laszlo

    Wirral West is one of the marginals I think the Tories will have real trouble hold on to. Esther McVey can come across as a divisive type and I’m not sure that will help her in a part of the country that is naturally sceptical of Conservatives. Her only hope is probably that the UKIP vote their collapses to <5%. Not impossible but unlikely. I think EF have called it about right.

  8. Anyone know what Survation means by their description of using: ‘targeted lifestyle data for specific younger age brackets…. to achieve a broad sample of ages and wards’

    http://survation.com/methodology/

  9. RAF
    I don’t think you can split the difference as they are measuring two different things. The Comres marginal swing is pretty much bang on what the Ashcroft polls have been finding. A swing in the marginals of 3.5%. This number is much more important than national VIs if you want to know who will be the PM

    ATM this swing would put the two main parties on roughly the same number of seats with EM as PM.

  10. @ Jack Sheldon

    “Esther McVey can come across as a divisive type.”

    Much more popular with men than women according to this Sun Poll.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6424437/Esther-McVey-female-politician-married-men-would-most-like-to-bed.html

  11. Google Trends:

    The Brand interview effect?

    ‘Searches for Ed Miliband makes up 55% of Google searches of UK party leaders, up 17% since yesterday.

    In contrast, searches for David Cameron is down by 5%, and constitutes 17% of the searches.

    Nigel Farage is at 14%, Nicola Sturgeon 10% and Nick Clegg makes 4% of Google searches.’

  12. @ ExileinYorks

    Yes, I know, but you gave an opportunity for the plug in for that great article.

    off: while I’m all in for EBM, I would like it to be combined with SBM. /off

  13. Hawthorn

    I think this is a key point with Clegg. Even if he does survive in Sheffield a lot of his colleagues will not. It is going to be either a bad night or a very bad night for the LibDems and as leader he will carry the can. I am far from convinced the remnants still standing will want to follow him.

    Bantams

    You may not be a Tory but you are most definitely hostile to Labour. I think that much is true.

  14. @ Cloudspotter

    The only thing I would say here is that ComRes have a reputation for being Tory friendly – and obviously Lord Ashcroft actually is a Tory. Maybe all the marginal polling we are seeing is wrong because it comes from these two pollsters? If YouGov did marginal polling I would be happier we were seeing a balanced picture.

  15. @Cloud Spotter

    OK. But both Ashcroft and Comres are phone pollsters who tend to show a much weaker Labour position than other pollsters nationally (Con+6 and Con+4 respectively). Would this “house effect” not also be present on their marginals polling?

    I’m not saying they are wrong, just that on balance they may be underplaying Labour’s performance due to method.

  16. Re a 3% swing…in the two closest to Home that would mean that Ashcroft recently had Hove 8% up to Labour, does that mean The Tories are 5% up in Brighton Kemptoen (which I think will be close) without the incumbency & naming prompt coming into play. This immediately halves the 40 to 20
    Separately the Spread Bookies are currently on their highest (19 seat) difference of the campaign with mid point as follows :
    Cons 286
    Lab 267
    Libs 24
    SNP 49

    Money talks?

  17. Actually, going through some of the seats the unfairness of the boundaries is very obvious. Wirral West has 53th, Liverpool Riverside 74th voters. Of course, it is because of the Birkenhead people’s refusing to be associated with Liverpool (Central) :-)

  18. I mean YG in addition to Comres and Ashcroft.

  19. Mike N: Parliament doesn’t have to “allow an election to happen”. If DC doesn’t resign after a first motion of no confidence and he doesn’t carry a second motion of confidence within 14 days, there is an automatic dissolution under the law. No PM in the past 100 years actuallly resigned after a vote of no confidence. In all such cases, there was a new election. Why should we have a new constitutional convention that goes against established precedent ?

    Again, we need to keep things in perspective. Ed Miliband’s trying to hang on to power without a fornal agreement with the SNP and without winning a plurality of the popular votes or of the seats in the HoC would be infinitely more damaging to the country than a second summer election that would probably give us closure one way or the other (as voters would most likely rethink their choices such as e.g. voting for UKIP or the SNP).

    If, on the other hand, Labour has a concrete possibility of forming a stable government (for example with the SNP), them I’ll be the first person to urge Cameron to resign even before Parliament meets.

  20. Has anyone else ever been hounded by one of those stupid reverse beeping things? There is one working day after day in the field by me at the moment and it is driving me crazy.

    Why do they have to be so loud? There is no-one in the field to ‘warn’ about the fact the tractor is reversing. So what is the point of it?

    Sorry. Got distracted there. I was looking at the latest polls and trying to see how things were moving but all I can hear is that stupid beeping.

  21. MARTINW
    A fair point, although the YouGov Nowcast also gives a very similar picture, albeit slightly more pro-Labour. With Comres, Ashcroft and the Nowcast all pretty much in agreement, I think it’s corroboration of the Ashcroft polls all the models have been heavily relying on.

  22. @ MBruno

    “No PM in the past 100 years actuallly resigned after a vote of no confidence”

    I keep reading this. It’s a total red herring because it’s never happened immediately after an election before.

  23. @Martinw
    Do not accuse others of cheating because you cheat. This cheap shot at Ashcroft is a typical lefty slur and is getting very tedious. As for COM-RES, who says they are Tory friendly? The boss of You Gov is a socialist, his wife is a socialist, why have I never accused him of being a cheat.

  24. VEGAS SEAGULL

    If money always talked then Sprinter Sacre would have nailed it at Cheltenham.

  25. @ MBRUNO

    “In that situation, David Cameron has a strong case IMHO for holding a fresh election rather than resigning after a vote of confidence, which BTW, as I insist, would be in line with the precedent set by all PMs who also lost a vote of confidence in the 20th century.”

    Cameron can not order a new election. Only the HoC can do that now, and it requires a 2/3rd vote for it.

    Out of interest, I was arguing on the interweb about the Labour-SNP Trident dispute. I have always been under the impression that budget / finance bills were automatically deemed to be confidence votes and if the government was unable to pass your budget they had to resign.

    (I was contemplating a ‘nightmare scenario’ where a Labour administration is brought down by the SNP and Tories combining to vote against a Trident Bill, allowing Cameron to win a new election (after cannily refusing to form a government and letting parliament reach its automatic dissolution ‘fail-safe’) by arguing only a strong Tory government can succeed, Labour had its chance and now it is time for the grown ups to take control again.)

    Digging further into this, I was unable to come up with any conclusive evidence that supply bills are automatically confidence votes. It all seems a bit ambivalent, as if it has been a conventional expectation that has never been written down. I found this, in a parliamentary research paper from the 90s:

    “A confidence motion is a device which directly tests that confidence. If the result demonstrates that the Government has indeed lost the confidence of the House, and cannot therefore continue to govern effectively, it must resign or seek a dissolution of Parliament (on which choice, see the following section). No other parliamentary event requires such an outcome, and suggestions that various obviously important occasions such as, say, the Queen’s Speech or the second reading of the Finance Bill, are tantamount to confidence motions must, in modern circumstances, remain speculative.”

    … Which seems to suggest a government can fail to pass a budget bill and still survive, though there would likely be an expectation and moral pressure on them to resign.

    Does anyone know of any further authority on this matter?

  26. @ Roland

    Let them get on with it, I have growing confidence of another Con-LD coalition as long as NC hangs onto his seat.

  27. UNICORN
    It provides independent corroborative evidence that the ElectionForecast model is almost precisely on target in projecting Lab/Con differences across these critical marginal seats.

    Sorry. I will change my opinion in deference to you and others who have pointed out that I have read this poll wrongly.

    Thanks.

  28. @ CloudSpotter

    I think there’s a 20 seat difference between YG Nowcast and the forecasts based on Ashcroft’s polls

    That would equate very well with a 5% swing instead of a 3.5% swing.

  29. @UNICORN

    I disagree. It provides independent corroborative evidence that the ElectionForecast model is almost precisely on target in projecting Lab/Con differences across these critical marginal seats.
    _______________________________________

    I must say,Chris Hanretty did seem very confident in his assertion last night (Newsnight) that the bases were all covered in terms of there Con 280 v Lab 270 prediction.

  30. MBRUNO

    “No PM in the past 100 years actually resigned after a vote of no confidence.”

    I think the Narvik debate in May 1940 would probably count. But, that is not the point. The FTPA lays out procedures for the eventuality you describe. And the civil service handbook does likewise. I would argue that the civil service handbook, whilst not an act of parliament, is actually the record of a convention that forms part of the UK constitution.

    Your argument appears to hinge upon the fact that NS, or the leader of the SNP in the commons, telling the civil services that she would support Ed in a VoC is worthless without a formal C&S agreement. I don’t think it is.

  31. Follow up point from my last post I’ve looked at the Tory held marginals in the North West (my region) and found that the Greens are not standing candidates in the following seats.
    Wirral West
    City of Chester
    Crewe and Nantwich
    South Ribble
    This surely must be significant? I’m going to look nationwide and create a whole list but common sense would dictate that (non student) Greens tend to be fairly middle class, highly educated and thus one would assume politically engaged thus I’m guessing most will vote and probably vote Labour. This surely is skewing the Ashcroft polls somewhat and providing a slightly warped view as to what might happen in these seats.

  32. @ Rolandgatinoise

    Calm down!! I was just saying I’d like to see some YouGov marginal polling to see if it was any different.

  33. @ DavidinFrance

    It depends on your political affiliation:

    1) it is a Brussels mega-bureaucratic dictate
    2) h&S gone mad
    3) it’s a reasonable warning that things can go forward and backward, but we don’t know it right now
    4) there shouldn’t be tractors in the first place. What’s wrong with oxen?
    5) it is wrong to exploit oxen
    6) not the bell tolls, but the beeps for the benefit of the hard working rural families, who put their trust in the economic turnaround in the last five years
    7) these beeps are the signals of the end of austerity. It gives the signals to the progressives to unite, and EM to stop being an austerity-lite.

    I stop this madness here, and don’t give you the options to match these up with.

    Apologies.

  34. They’re saying on the Twittersphere that tomorrow’s Ipsos MORI poll is a “corker”

    I repeat: a “corker”

  35. @ LURGEE

    The FTPA requires an explicit no-confidence motion in a prescribed form of words to start a process which may lead to a new election. An extract from the act was quoted back up thread.

  36. The most interesting thing about the ComRes marginals poll is that it is so far out of whack with their 4% national Con lead and much more in line with a very tight national VI race.

  37. @ MBRUNO

    “If DC doesn’t resign after a first motion of no confidence and he doesn’t carry a second motion of confidence within 14 days, there is an automatic dissolution under the law.”

    Sorry, am I missing something? The Fixed Term Parliaments Act states it pretty clearly.

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

  38. @Lurgee

    The SNP minority gov’t failed to pass a Scottish budget and had to come back the following week with changes.

    I would have thought a second election would probably mean be party forcing it would get no votes, voters will have spoken and disrespecting the choice is not a good plan. How did Wilson get away with two elections in 1974 ?

  39. Mikey

    Bantams is an archetypal Yorkshire-style Lib Dem.

  40. MORI – a corker = outlier

  41. MartinW: OK, let’s accept we are facing an unprecedented situation here. Still, Labour is being not honest with voters. All I want Ed Miliband to do is to admit that, in order to form a government without a second election being held, he will have to strike a fornal deal with the SNP. Having a minority government with 270 MPs (as predicted by the bookies) and without any such confidence and supply agreement would be a reckless move.

  42. @Omni

    “Corker” from an irregular pollster = “outlier”. We already know it’s a Tory lead. Imagine a big Tory lead being published just before QT. What a coincidence that would be.

  43. Thesaurus Volume 3

    Corker (n) An opinion poll that gives a remarkable and unexpected result that accords strongly with the commissioner’s personal preference.

    See also, outlier, rogue.

  44. Oh dear, a corker.

    So that will be constituency and marginals polls wrong then? Watch out for sample size and weighting again.

  45. MBruno.

    We aren’t. He doesn’t. He won’t. It wouldn’t.

  46. @ MBruno

    All I want Ed Miliband to do is to admit that, in order to form a government without a second election being held, he will have to strike a fornal deal with the SNP.

    Write to him. His email address is public. You are wrong with the third part of your sentence.

    without any such confidence and supply agreement would be a reckless move.

    This is not really a constitutional argument, moreover non sequitur. It may well be reckless but certainly doesn’t validate your argument.

    I’m pretty sure that the civil service has briefed the politicians.

  47. Mbruno

    I am reluctant to go back into this, but your assertion that Ed Miliband can form a minority government if he has a C&S agreement with the SNP but not without has no logical basis. If he can do one, he can do the other.

  48. MARTINW
    Ah, well those forecasters are making other adjustments. They aren’t Nowcasts. I used the Ashcroft polls to work out the marginal swing myself a few weeks ago and got a swing of 3.5%.
    That swing would give applied as uniform swing would give:
    Con 276
    Lab 273

    Yougov Nowcast
    Con 272
    Lab 276

    Pretty close in my book.

  49. Evening folks. Another busy day of building mathematical models for a living is over, an evening of mathematical interpretation here awaits!

    Are we expecting any polls tonight beyond the usual YG (34 each, before you ask)?

  50. RAF

    Are you saying Ipsos Mori will make the numbers up?

    Are they in the Tories pocket?

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