So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

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  1. @GARY GATTER

    I don’t believe people vote according to the paper they read, or I should say, people read the paper that supports their views rather than being lead by the paper they read.

    If only there were some way to poll the opinion of people to determine the truth of this. Some sort of ‘opinion poll’, if you will.

    ;-)

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2476/Voting-by-Newspaper-Readership-19922010.aspx?view=wide

  2. Oldnat,

    I think you’ll find, with a little research, that “David Coburn” is actually a pseudonym for Grant Shapps.

  3. @ERNIE……Don’t worry, you can always pop into the beautifully converted Olympic stadium, and pretend. :-)

  4. BANTAMS.
    I THINK that Labour will not gain more than 30 seats from Tories; I think they will gain 10 from Lib Dems. (Base Line is 2010 GE.
    That takes Labour to 298 max. The ‘Scottish Play’ looks to be taking Labour down from that number to 263 max.
    Combined with 51 SNP, 7 SDLP/Plaid and 1 Green we are looking I think at 322 for the ‘left’ in the House of Commons.

    I think one of the most interesting things to watch is whether some left of centre Lib Dems would leave the Lib Dem conservative Lib Dems to join Labour or at least sit on the Opposition Benches.

  5. The Comres/ITN poll of Labour/Conservative marginals is about as useful as last week’s version of LD/Conservative marginals. That is, not very as we have no idea how the percentages break down across the seats.

  6. ASSIDUOSITY

    My reading is mostly based on Ashcroft polls, with guesswork for those he did not poll.

    Let’s not pretend that we know exactly what is going to happen with any certainty, even if we apply a load of maths.

    I have 38 of those down to Labour, plus a couple of toss-ups (Thurrock and Swindon South).

    Other seats in contention (in no order of likelihood):

    Norwich North, High Peak, Milton Keynes South, Rossendale & Darwin, Colne Valley, Ilford North, Crewe & Nantwich, Finchley & Golders Green. There is also the possibility of some other black swan seats.

  7. Of course: if Sinn Fein change their abstentionist policy the maths changes.

  8. @ChrisLane1945

    Interesting point. But I think the 30 potential gains for Lab from Con is the smallest number they are likely to achieve. Taking on board the rest of your scenario, left leaning LDs joining the progressive bloc would be the icing on the cake, rather than a necessity.

  9. Re: Milli-Brand interview.

    Think Ed got out of it as much as he could expect and certainly made a good attempt to reach the parts of the electorate other politicians seem to ignore.

    At the end of the interview, Brand said he thought Mr Miliband “understands the way the country feels”.

    The comedian said: “I think it says a lot about Ed Miliband, he understands the way the media works right now, the way the country feels at the moment, the way that people feel, that he was prepared to come round here and talk to us.”

    q

  10. ASSIDUOSITY

    Pudsey should have been another toss-up seat on my list.

  11. @Frederic Heath-Renn

    A very useful piece of polling and the kind of long term data set that MORI do well because of their well, err, longevity.

    What it confirms is that the political view of a most newspapers is to greater or lesser extent reflected by the readership. What is less clear is whether people have chosen those papers which reflect their views or come to assume the views of the papers they read over time, the point I think being made be @Catoswyn.

    Interestingly, there are a few newspapers who fall foul of their readership (or may do so this time) The Guardian (if they go Lib Dem again), The Star (unless their voters have moved with them to a UKIP / Conservative position) and London’s Evening Standard, which often finds itself a pro-Conservative newspaper with a pro-Labour readership, something that may be more the case now that it’s free, and London appears to be leaning Labour.

  12. MITZ.
    If I were Ed Miliband I would take 30 seats gain from the Tories, now. That number is, in my opinion, the highest number that Labour can expect. This is just my gut feel, honed by watching, often with pain, General Elections and all other types of elections, including papal ones, since 1963, when I was 8 years old (when a new Pope was elected!).

  13. I have decided to put my delicate areas on the table and give my prediction regarding Lab vs Con.

    I predict a tie with both parties on 273 seats.

  14. @Frederic Heath-Renn

    It does annoy me when people use facts to support their arguments! You have started a dangerous trend, according to my mate down the pub.

  15. Con/DUP/LD? Ah, but supposing Peter Robinson insisted on being Deputy PM? :)

  16. @Hawthorn

    Of course we’ll never know exactly what’s going on with MoE and methodological debate and besides we have more data now than ever before.

    I’m just being greedy and would like Ashcroft to spread some of his largesse either revisiting those seats in this cohort that were done a long time ago or checking off the few that remain as this is where I believe the next government will be decided.

    That’s not too much to ask now, is it?

    38 sounds in the right ball park to me based on the available data, 40 at a push, 34 on a bad day.

    I would say that there are at least 5 and possibly as many as 10 others that could also swing to Labour in the 50 next most marginal Conservative seats.

    Beyond this I would say we are entering the realms of the current data underestimating Labour support, or exceptionally high turnout among younger voters on the day.

  17. Well, ‘gut feel’ is the kind of nonsense the US Republicans threw around against the weight of all polling evidence in 2012. And we all know what happened then.

    It’s close. Very close. But Miliband on current polling, if the averages play out to a similar result on polling day, will be PM. Even if he has slightly fewer seats than the Tories.

    For Cameron to remain PM, we have to assume unlikely scenarios such as last minute surges (which have never happened before, not even in 1992 where the polling was simply wrong). Or, we assume ALL polls are wrong. All of them.

    No sensible person can believe that.

  18. Gary Gatter

    “@Frederic Heath-Renn

    It does annoy me when people use facts to support their arguments! You have started a dangerous trend, according to my mate down the pub.”

    If this catches on, we will be getting evidence based policies from politicians next.

  19. CATOSWYN

    I disagree about the usefulness of the Comres poll. These are seats with a similar swing. The SW poll lumped together very diverse seats.

    I also like the Comres poll as it agrees with what I’ve been saying for the last month. A 5% swing in England, translating to a 3.5% swing in the marginals. Who says there is no such thing as incumbency?

  20. @exileinyorks

    Lets walk before we try to run.

  21. @hawthorn
    “I have decided to put my delicate areas on the table”

    You have more than one? That’s nearly as interesting as your prediction.

  22. ASSIDUOSITY

    I totally agree about the Ashcroft polling. It is very frustrating. Is he avoiding the Lab-Con contest for a reason?

  23. @GARY GATTER It does annoy me when people use facts to support their arguments! You have started a dangerous trend, according to my mate down the pub.

    You weren’t wrong though. Surely the research shows that there’s a correlation between the paper people read and their vote. It doesn’t say which way causation is.

    Chicken and egg. Paper and voting preference.

  24. I’ve just spotted a flaw in my own question….Peter Robinsn isn’t standing is he? Doh!

  25. @Chrislane1945

    “I THINK that Labour will not gain more than 30 seats from Tories; I think they will gain 10 from Lib Dems.”

    On current polling (national averages, Aschcroft, marginal pools) this seems like a low estimate of Labour gains from the Conservatives.

    Is this based on data, ‘swingback theory’, ‘Shy Tory’ or good old ‘gut instinct’?

  26. Chrislane
    I would suggest to you that Labour are better placed today than was the case eight days prior to the February 1974 election.

  27. OMNISHAMBLES

    You have more than one? That’s nearly as interesting as your prediction.

    Of course, I am not Nigel Farage! ;)

  28. @hawthorn

    Heh, fair play. It’s all inside MOE anyway.

  29. Agree with others that these ITV Battleground polls aren’t that useful. This type of poll has been superseded by Ashcroft and forecasts.

    I’m sure somebody will do some clever analysis to show whether this is better/ worse for CON/LAB than Ashcroft/ forecasts.

  30. Speaking of conversations down the pub…

    …I was sharing a couple with some friends at the weekend, and one (a rather bombastic fellow who is never shy of giving an opinion and then expecting everyone to agree with him – and I say that with affection) opined that “as SNP are wiping the floor there’s no way that Labour can win is there?” His point was that England + Wales together “always” gives a bigger number for the Tories than for Labour.

    Never mind the potential for post 7/5 deals, coalitions, C&S etc. I think he’s wrong. (Well, I know he’s wrong historically, obviously, but I think he’ll be wrong this time too.)

    Gun to the head, have to predict right now? Lab 275, Con 270.

  31. JACK SHELDON

    Disagree, they are yet more corroboration that Ashcroft’s constituency polls are valid, and that ICM/Survation are wrong.

  32. @CloudSpotter

    The ComRes poll would certainly seem to indicate – if further indication were needed – that these seats could do with some attention if there is money going spare in the last week before polling.

    These after all would seem to be the seats where the identity of the next government will be determined.

    Of course, Lord Ashcroft is under no obligation to publish all his polling, equally, it may well be that the Conservatives are using their own substantial resources to carry out private polling in these very sensitive seats with the added advantage that any negative results can be kept private.

    Indeed with Lord Ashcroft polling in their ‘second line’ marginals, that would allow them to focus polling and other resources on where the fight was closest and keep it all confidential.

    A very sensible strategy and one I’m sure every party would employ were they in a position to do so.

  33. CHRISLANE1945
    Of course: if Sinn Fein change their abstentionist policy the maths changes.

    They won’t.

  34. Have the polls now fully reflected the effects of the anti-SNP strategy – or could there still be more to come from that for the Tories? It seems to have been going on forever!

  35. @Hawthorn

    Not sure that follows. Possible that Ashcroft marginals, ComRes battleground and various national polls are all doing something wrong that ICM are getting right. I have no idea who is right and who is wrong but not sure you can say it’s necessarily ICM just because others disagree with them. We’ll see on May 8th.

  36. JACK SHELDON

    Of course it follows. It would mean there would have to be another pollster cocking it up.

  37. Well, last night’s YG poll and today’s polls have to an extent reassured Lab posters here, I imagine.

    My cautious forecast that L will get most votes and seats remains in place (for now).

    4 hours before the next YG will again (un)settle posters on here…

  38. @MartinW

    It’ll be something they’ll keep pushing in the marginals… reckon it works well on waverers who don’t mind coalition but might have voted Labour. And possibly on Ukippers too (though that may be cancelled out by it driving some LAB people towards UKIP)

    Nationally I think (hope) they’ll focus on the positive message – what carrying on with the long-term economic plan means, how people will be better off in 2020 etc. And I expect Cameron will be getting ‘pumped up’ a couple more times!

  39. Coupers: the situation is not as straighforward as you suggest. Let us assume that the Tories hypothetically win a plurality of the popular vote and are the largest party in the House of Commons. In that situation, David Cameron has a strong case IMHO for holding a fresh election rather than resigning after a vote of confidence, which BTW, as I insist, would be in line with the precedent set by all PMs who also lost a vote of confidence in the 20th century..

    if Ed Miliband wants to be PM without actually “winning” the GE, he has to come up with something stronger than simply claiming that he has the votes to carry a second motion of confidence under the FTPA.. He needs a formal working agreement with the SNP plus any other willing parties and must be prepared to face the political consequences of that decision. In other words, there is no free lunch. I certainly wouldn’t advise David Cameron to resign if there was no clear alternative government in waiting. If no stable government is available, we should let the people have a say again in the polls.

  40. @ ExileinYorks

    “If this catches on, we will be getting evidence based policies from politicians next.”

    Actually it exists.

    Gilens and Page tested 1779 policy issues. The only time when the policy was decided according to the opinion of the majority of the voters, when it coincided with the economic elite. Civil society organisations (including trade unions, and chambers of commerce) had very marginal influence.

  41. MBRUNO

    Just, NO!!!!

  42. Aren’t ComRes phone polls and historically pro-Tory in regards to results? Swing could be much larger than this

  43. Your last para I suggest is nonsense.

    If DC cannot command the confidence of the HoC he will tender his resignation as PM to the Q and suggest someone (e.g. EM) who can.

    in the background the civil service will be working with all parties that have MPs to establish support for say EM.

    The Q and the country will not accede to another GE just because DC wants it. All IMO, of course…

  44. MBRUNO

    There was a lot of discussion regarding the issue you raise yesterday. Its an endless argument it seems involving interpretations of the FTPA.

    We’re going to potentially face these same arguments from all sides after the election. I suspect its going to get very boring.

  45. MBruno

    I should have added that Parliament won’t allow another GE unless there is no one who has the confidence of the HoC.

  46. Doh, my post at 6.27pm was intended for MBruno…

  47. This is a ComRes phone poll. We know phone polls (particularly ComRes ones) are not particularly flattering to Labour (for reasons that aren’t clear). So I consider these polls to be a low watermark for Labour.

  48. I don’t know about others, but I found it fairly difficult to make sense of the Comres marginal poll. I couldn’t imagine what differences one would expect to see across the listed set of marginal seats.

    To get my bearings on this, I have pulled out today’s ElectionForecast Nowcast figures for these 50 seats and worked out their current VIs across the whole sample. The EF averages are: Tories – 35.98% and Labour – 38.92%, so 36% and 39% after rounding. Each of these is 1% below the corresponding Comres figure, leaving the margin exactly the same.

    So, given MoE for both poll and model, the Comres results are as close as you could realistically get to where EF ‘thinks’ we are right now.

  49. @Smithy

    Snap! Today’s YG said the Con-Lab swing in E&W was 5.1%. If we split the difference between ComRes’s findings and YG’s E&W crossbreaks, we have a Con-Lab swing of around 4.25%.

  50. Looking at that poll of marginals one point that should be raised is the vote shares of smaller parties. All within MOE of course but UKIP a little on the low side which one might think would be better for the Cons but Greens sitting on where they are nationally which likely hurts Lab thus for them to still lead is probably good news for them.

    I might be overthinking this but I was looking at Wirral West (A seat Labour really needs to win) and the Ashcroft polls show Labour ahead but a not insignificant Green vote. This is interesting since there is no Green candidate there. So where do these Greens go? Wirral west is not really a studenty seat so you can’t attribute it to Students who won’t vote. Knowing the seat pretty well methinks its some middle class left-wingers (Champaign Socialists as some of you might think of them) who upon seeing the ballot paper will go Labour. This may seem irrelevant but it leads me to believe that 1) McVey is probably going to lose and 2) How many marginal are there where the Greens are not standing? Broad statement but one would think that’s got to be worth 1% or so in the polls if it turns out there are quite a few.

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