So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

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  1. Rivers10

    One school of thought is that a lot of Clegg’s campaigning has been designed to save his own seat by sending that ‘I’m basically a Tory message’. I suppose the marginally less cynical view is that their best chance of a wider good performance probably comes from saving seats from the Tories.

  2. Would the LD even work with the DUP. On social Issues the DUP are rather similar to UKIP. The recent controversies with the DUP will make them even less hesitant.

  3. I’d bet good money that the Guardian will hedge and endorse SNP in Scotland and then Labour tactical voting/Green/PC in England and Wales.

  4. I mused about 2 weeks ago here, on the odds I would get for the Tories having more Scottish MPs than Labour. I placed £10 at 50-1 (privately). Good odds?

  5. @Sunreada

    “I understand TND getting excited and tweeting before the embargo but surely Ben Page is being unprofessional ?”

    I have to confess I thought the same.

    Unless he did it with their consent, if I were the client I’d be rather unimpressed that Ipsos MORI were blowing my headline a day early.

    It’s interesting that everyone on here says pollsters would never do x, y or z as it would compromise their commercial interests outside of political polling, but this is an example where as a prospective client I would think twice about awarding a tender on the basis of incautious behaviour in the heat of the moment.

  6. Pudsey was mentioned earlier, my last day working the area before I go back to St Ives tomorrow for the last push there.

    I estimate Stuart Andrew is 2-3k votes ahead so a comfortable hold. He’s well ahead in Guiseley, Rawdon & Horsforth on one side of the Aire Valley but behind in Pudsey & Farsley on t’other side.

    St Ives looks to be much closer, could be just a few hundred votes in it, can’t call this one.

  7. Surely it would be easier to just run a minority government and deal with the issues on a case by case issue rather than these extraordinary coalitions being floated… And it would be far easier to set up the otherparties to fail…

    And who really wants to go in as junior partner in these coalitions given the decimation that the LibDems are going to have…

  8. There are two obstacles that the Tories have to jump to get the Lib Dems on board (this is on top of getting about 290 seats):

    1: Clegg has to survive

    2: All the Lib Dem MPs have to want to watch Coalition 2: Electric Boogaloo.

    Seems difficult to me. Even if they do it, it is still a rubbish sequel of the last five years for them.

  9. AdamB
    Right regarding your post on a right wing alliance yes I certainly agree that involving UKIP is more hassle than their 2-3 MP’s are worth but even in your scenario the Con, Lib, DUP group having 325 seats cuts it really fine, all it requires are a few Lib Dems going AWOL (almost a certainty) DUP not being so malleable (very possible) and the odd by-election loss and the government is screwed and the Libs have made a big deal about forming a STABLE government and any multi party coalition or C and S deal that only just scrapes over the line is certainly not stable. And that assumes that those three parties manage to get to 325 which as I said even the better polls for the Tories generally don’t show that happening.

  10. @magpie
    “One school of thought is that a lot of Clegg’s campaigning has been designed to save his own seat by sending that ‘I’m basically a Tory message’”

    I notice a lot of Tory bashing from Clegg. He keeps banging on about the threat to public services from the £12bn cuts. He called Osborne a “very dangerous man” or something.

  11. @aberdeenangus

    Those are good odds.

    Chris Hanretty said on twitter ?on 7 April:

    “Low probability Scotland-only bets: Pr(Con seats > Lab seats & Con seats > LDem seats) =~ 3 or 4% (only if SNP win big, obvs)”

    i.e. the probability (according to EF) of Tories having more Scottish seats than *both* Labour and the Lib Dems was between 3% and 4% about three weeks ago. If anything, that probability will have gone up since then. The implied odds would be about 33/1, so your 50/1 bet looks a good one.

  12. Aberdeenangus

    At 50/1 seems like a fair punt, it’s unlikely but I guess you aren’t expecting it to come in.

    What odds would you have got 5 years ago? :D

  13. Omnishambles

    Yes, up to a point, he has to position himself against the Tories in some ways and he might negotiate a slightly less pathetic deal if it happens again – but when he talks about coalitions it tends to be in terms that seem to make a Lab/Lab pact seem very unlikely.

  14. Nick Clegg: “Just call me old-fashioned, but if you are going to try to work out how people are going to vote, ask them the question they are actually going to be asked on polling day.”

    In other words, he is criticising Lord A for not prompting with candidates’ names.

    Normally, Nick, you would probably be right, but your personal brand is so toxic with so many in the electorate I reckon Ashcroft was doing you a favour…

  15. Jack

    Realistically, Tory/LD is probably the only actual coalition that could happen, other than maybe Lab/LD if Labour far outperformed their polls and could function without the SNP supporting them.

    But you can still look at blocs of voting as these will be what is crucial in a confidence vote. So, for instance, if Tory/LD/DUP/UKIP > 322 then the actual coalition might be Tory/LD, or it might be that they can’t agree a full deal, so it is a Tory government with LD confidence and supply.

  16. Hawthorn,

    Yep, number 2 in a franchise, Star Wars Episode 1, the remake of Dallas, whatever… I’m sure some of the Lib Dems will feel pretty lacklustre about the prospect of five years of deja vu.

  17. Comres say Labour 3% up in the 50 most marginal Con seats, they think 43 can change hands but I really doubt the reality will be anything near that. It’s within MOE.

  18. Phil Haines

    Were a prime minister and government to resign without losing a vote of confidence, leaving us without a government, does the 14 day clock start ticking anyway? Or would any party then have to table a vote of no confidence in the (non-existent) “government”, which the former governing party could support in good faith given that it were no longer part of the government?

    There wouldn’t be ‘no government’ for long. The person next most likely to be able to form one would be asked to be PM. So the official opposition would get a chance in government. It’s possible even third or fourth placed Parties could be asked if they didn’t accept.

    I suppose they could all have a fit of the sulks, but the Palace would presumably find someone who would do the job pro tem – maybe a respected backbencher who would mainly put together a technocratic government from the Lords.

    Naturally any new administration would be subject to a vote of No Confidence which it would lose. But it would mean that there was someone to run the country during the 14 day waiting period and then while new elections were held.

    Of course the public might not take kindly to all these shenanigans and a Party using this route of resignation to force a new election might find itself out of favour by the time polling day came round, no matter what the polls said at the start. And of course they will have put someone else in government for a couple of months at least, perhaps giving them a chance to look responsible and shine.

  19. Magpie

    I suspect it it were that close, the LDs wouldn’t want to enter a coalition where any one C&S party or a couple of bye-election losses could pull the government down. If you are in a coalition you are in for the long haul where your negotiated points might come in a bit down the line only to disappear before getting to them, taking a bit of pain and having nothing to show for it at the end of the day.

    If Tory/LD/DUP/UKIP > 322 I suspect another election will be engineered this year, probably after the autumn statement. How many leaders change in the meantime, that could be interesting.

  20. @Bantams

    I’ll remember that the next time you accuse the left-leaning posters here of disregarding polls they don’t like the look of as MoE because the Tories are slightly ahead.,

  21. @Ann in Wales & Mitz

    “I would be extremely surprised if the Grauniad don’t back Labour this time. The got badly burned for agreeing with nick 5 years ago.”

    Who knows? Given what their support did for the Lib Dems 5 years ago they could come out in support of the Conservatives ;)

  22. Surely the Guardian editorial line is “Vote Tory, but tell all your friends that you voted Green”?

  23. Alan,

    True, that is another issue they will need to consider. And I should acknowledge Clegg is also talking about ‘stability’ as one of the important things they’ll need to consider. If you get Tory + LD + DUP = 325, it might be a reasonable judgment to think that it is a more stable government if they give confidence and supply to Labour, or possibly even go into coalition with them, although I think part of Clegg’s reluctance to do that comes from the way it will look if they bounce straight from one big party to the other.

  24. Rivers10
    Agree that 325 cuts it fine, but thats the same with any realistic colation, as thigns appear today

  25. Comres VI of CON-LAB marginals
    LAB – 40% (+4)
    CON – 37% (-3)
    UKIP – 11% (+8)
    GRN – 5% (+4)
    LDEM – 5% (-12)
    +/- from 2010

  26. @ Mitz

    Not a Tory to start with. The poll is an aggregate of all the 50 targets. Logically the lead won’t be equally spread across the board so some targets will have bigger Labour leads and some won’t.

    I know Pudsey personally and Labour are looking very unlikely to take the seat but somewhere like Nuneaton looks like it will have a bigger swing if you take Ashcroft’s last poll at face value.

  27. I predict a minority LD/Con coalition (315?). No way the DUP will go into the voting lobbies with the SNP

  28. @BANTAMS
    Comres say Labour 3% up in the 50 most marginal Con seats, they think 43 can change hands but I really doubt the reality will be anything near that. It’s within MOE.

    _________________________________________

    Along with the SNP full house poll, that’s surely the most significant data of the day thus far???

  29. This link has a list of the marginals polled by ComRes, if anyone’s interested

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-conservative-labour-battlegrounds-poll/

    Seems a good poll for Labour on the face of it

  30. Those Ashcroft polls must be painful reading for Nick Clegg in one sense: the percentage of Lib Dem voters from the 2010 “I agree with Nick” election who say they would definitely *not* vote Lib Dem this time:

    (today’s release)
    Sheffield Hallam: 27%
    Swindon South: 39%
    South Thanet: 44%

    (previous polls)
    High Peak: 41%
    Colne Valley: 37%
    Bristol West: 32%
    Bristol North West: 28%
    Cannock Chase: 46%
    Castle Point: 53%
    Great Grimsby: 45%
    Great Yarmouth: 49%
    Rochester & Strood: 53%
    Thurrock: 37%

    Granted that some of those constituencies are marginal between other parties so decided tactical voters might say they’re definitely not voting Lib Dem this time for local reasons even if they still broadly support the party. But still, they’re pretty brutal figures from a Lib Dem perspective.

    Looking at today’s Sheffield Hallam poll, in another sense maybe Clegg ought to be a bit more chipper in that if he manages to hold his seat it seems that it will be down to personal (rather than party) support from the electorate!

  31. Delboy

    And how many days would that last?

  32. How newspapers “split” in 2010 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    I don’t believe people vote according to the paper they read, or I should say, people read the paper that supports their views rather than being lead by the paper they read.

  33. Magpie

    That’d also depend on how stable they think the SNP would be if Lab were to make concessions to the LDs. If it were a government that couldn’t pass much legislation (but would never be voted down), would NC really be want to be seen as part of a hamstrung government?

    How much of the LD stuff (like deficit reduction) would they expect to get past the SNP? If it’s “None whatsoever”, I don’t see what the Lib Dems would gain from that arrangement either.

  34. This ComRes poll of Con/Lab marginals has a very similar feel to the recent SW poll showing the Cons pretty much wiping out the LDs in Devon and Cornwall. Just as with that one, there will no doubt be a few voting pattern irregularities making it unlikely that UNS will hold 100% true, but it’s still a pretty good poll for Labour

  35. Step aside Shapps. Your reign as Wiki king is over.

    UKIP politician David Coburn has been indefinitely banned from Wikipedia after attempting to alter an article about himself 69 times in six days.

  36. ComRes Con / Lab marginals tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ITV-News_Battleground-Poll_Labour-Target-Seats_26-April-2015.pdf

    Less than the 4-5% some other polls have been suggesting but in the absence of more Aschroft polling (which I was bemoaning only earlier today) in these key marginals, it looks positive for Labour, especially as there are some less marginal seats in the Aschroft samples that look set to fall.

    The performance of the LibDems and whether Labour can hold their VI steady in the final week is all.

    Of course this is within MoE, but hasn;t practically everything bar the odd phone poll or the odd very odd poll been recently?

  37. @GARY GATTER

    I’d say that in the past the obvious bias of the press had been offset somewhat by television coverage of elections. Not anymore after this one.

    Possibly the only medium that remains ‘up for grabs’ is the one we’re involved in right now.

  38. Could someone explain why in the latest ComRes poll there is a significant uplifting to the Labour VI when the weighting is taken into account?

    On unweighted figures the Cons actually had a higher VI?

    Or am I reading this wrong?

    Thanks

    Ed

  39. Hawthorn
    May be surprised…above all the DUP are a unionist party who would want to support a totally unionist government. True they would need a few crumbs ……

  40. OldNat

    “… It was Old Man Coburn all along!”
    “and I’d have gotten away with it if it weren’t for you meddling kids!”

  41. From my qualitative reading of the constituencies I suspect that Labour will slightly under-perform UNS in those 50 seats, but make up for it by grabbing a few less marginal ones.

  42. @CHRISLANE1945……Welcome to the Premiership. Bournemouth, will, hopefully, bring the same buccaneering and exciting spirit to the division that we have come to enjoy from Southampton, must be the sea air.
    As a Chelsea supporter, I love to watch you aspirational types down at the Bridge, and of course,visit your seaside stadia, I think your team might displace the dreary Villa. :-)

  43. @Bantams
    As a Pudsey resident myself I would be interested to know how you arrive at your estimate!

    What you say about where the Tories and Labour are doing better is entirely predictable, but it the balance that matters!

    Andrew

  44. So on the basis of Ashcroft constituency and ComRes key marginals I don’t think we can say we have crossover. The polls showing the tories 3 points ahead are typically on the basis of willingness to vote rather than outright figures, and I think there are some fairly good and known reasons about Lab voters not turning out in safe seats unlike Tory voters. These polls must really have calmed Labour nerves, and at this stage the mountain to climb for the conservatives to remain in power looks as high as ever. They really don’t need Swindon South to still be too close to call.

  45. @Ken

    I accuse you of blatant disregard for the non-partisan rules of this site. I am a Villa supporter (if I remember correctly)

  46. @Hawthorn

    “From my qualitative reading of the constituencies I suspect that Labour will slightly under-perform UNS in those 50 seats, but make up for it by grabbing a few less marginal ones.”

    Ah yes, but wouldn’t it be nice to have something more than a ‘qualitative reading’ to go by?

    As per our exchange earlier today, I’ll be surprised if Ashcroft isn’t polling here.

    Comres predict around 40 will fall to Labour, would you have a view on numbers?

  47. I think that if it comes to Clegg trying to negotiate with labour, he’s going to experience a ‘railway carriage’ moment.

  48. With respect to Clegg’s decision if Con + Lib Dems + DUP is somewhere in the mid three twenties:

    In these circumstances it will be important of Lab + Lib Dems > Con. If it is then a Lab/Lib coalition with tacit support from the SNP (in a VoC) is viable. If not then the Lib Dems would be tying themselves to a government that needed the progressive bloc to get legislation passed and that might be too much to ask of them.

    Clegg has been emphasizing how LibDems could be a positive moderating force as part of a government but I wonder how many of his backbenchers share that view and how many would rather just spend a few years on the opposition benches.

  49. GARY GATTER

    I agree, especially nowadays, people buy a paper because it confirms their feelings and beliefs. The paper does not neccesarily form them from scratch.

    Anyway, nowadays people are reading a broader range of papers than before due to the internet. I would have never bought the papers I now read regularly. In fact I make it a point to read the papers that contradict my own views so that I can understand the arguments on all sides. Then again I am a news addict!

  50. Bantham.

    I only operate in West London but have been to Hampstead and Kilburn , Harrow East and Acton. I would say they are all going Labour and the collapsing LD vote is going to to Labour in London 4 to 1 ( i never actually picked up any ex Libs saying they were going to vote Tory but i assume there are some there) I have also heard good reports from north London.

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