So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

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  1. First

  2. First?

  3. It has been a good couple of days for the Tories. I suspect that YouGov will continue that trend

  4. Can someone please tell me where the bookies get their information?

  5. Average of last 5 full Scottish opinion polls has SNP on 50%.

  6. On Brand fpt

    was really annoyed when Brand told people not to vote but I think he regrets that now. He is a bit like some of the people in he independence campaign, in that the establishment howl about him because he is anti-establishment. Brand now campaigns on various issues, housing, big business not paying tax, anti-racism and is a very political.

    He has a really good quote

    “when I was poor and talked about inequality they told me it was envy, now I am rich and talk about inequality they say I’m a hypocrite. I think they just don’t want to talk about inequality” Spot On.

    I am glad Miliband is talking to him it certainly gives me a better opinion of Miliband.

  7. Fifth

  8. Ugh

    Nicely played, @couper

  9. YouGov last night will have been the periodic blip in Lab leads since the campaign began.

    Prediction:

    Con 33%
    Lab 35%

  10. So the overall picture seems to be shifting from level to a very narrow Tory lead.

  11. All this ‘nth’ nonsense … this is the last place I’d expect it. Something youtube outgrew years ago and yet it’s still on a political polling website of all places.

  12. Family in NI are saying they just sat through a NI leader’s debate which they describe as ‘shockingly bad’. In fact one of them said she felt like crying. So at least we only have a Milliband/Brand youtube interview over here!

  13. So third time lucky – Tories ahead in 4 of the last 5 … Not that unusual and consistent with level pegging (has already happened three times before in 2015).

    But if the next poll (YouGov at 1030 I guess) makes it 5 from the last 6 my shaky maths says that we have a 97% chance the Tories are actually ahead.

    But I think YG will show a 4% Labour lead because I just cannot see the Tories breaking free …

  14. JP

    For info, when was last 4-of-5

  15. COUPER2802

    I agree re: Brand. What people who accept the democratic establishment positions forget is that there is a whole section of society who are political in a very different way. Through direct action for instance. In fact often these groups are more active and political than those who drag themselves out to vote once every five years.

    Brand’s points aboutnot voting, though I think they are misguided myself, are part of that. He was never saying ‘don’t get involved’ and as you say he himself has been so involved very actively.

  16. It looks like most polls are now converging to a narrow Tory lead which, combined with the SNP surge in Scotland, means the the Conservatives will probably be the largest party in the next parliament. I don’t think the worse-than-expected GDP numbers today will change that trend.

  17. RAF (fpt): ES is towing Boris Johnson’s line, mainly, but not stringently.

  18. JOHN POLITICS

    @” I just cannot see the Tories breaking free …”

    When I walk out that door
    Oh how I want to be free, baby
    Oh how I want to be free,
    Oh how I want to break free.

  19. Brand seems to be treading a well trodden path from angry child to Card Carrying Socialist. He just started down that path a bit late in life, having lost a few years to hedonism.

    There are plenty of serving Labour MPs who held views like Brand’s in their teens and twenties (and one or two Libs and Tories too).

  20. Is Ashcroft avoiding the real battleground with his polls?

    No straight Lab- Con marginals for two weeks. He keeps polling the side shows.

  21. I’m confused. Why is it so important how many polls one side or another is ahead in? Surely its not a case of piling them up in columns. I thought the maths was all about MOE and averages (or median geometry in Funtypippin’s case). Still looks a little deadlocked to me so far.

  22. The Mail would have been top of my list for newspapers most likely to be give Mliband a hard time merely for talking to Brand. The main impression I get from their article is that they don’t really know what to make of it. Although they have their usual anti-Labour / pro-Tory messages scattered throughout the piece

    I suspect that the Mail might just be doing most of the electorate will do – see the interview as a bit of oddball item and move on.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3059492/A-meeting-minds-Labour-leader-Ed-Miliband-chats-tax-non-voting-comic-Russell-Brand-candles-burn-smart-East-London-kitchen.html

  23. Far to early to be drawing all these conclusions.

  24. Russell brand has 11million followers – whose the oddball?

  25. JohnPolitico FPT
    if they were level pegging, being ahead in 6 out of the last 7 polls would only happen about 1.5% of the time

    Only if each poll individually was moving randomly within MOE around a tie. But if level-pegging is an outcome of averaging the house effects of different pollsters, then part of your six-poll run is mainly just the conjunction of three Tory-leaning pollsters publishing in succession. With ICM, Ashcroft and Survation showing consistent Tory leads, it’s mainly the run of two or more of the Laboury pollsters showing consecutive Tory leads that will contribute to the odds against.

  26. @cloudspotter – he did High Peak and Colne Valley in his last round.

  27. Ray – March 10 was last time they had 4 out of the last 5 …

  28. JP

    Thanks

  29. The return of the Saltire thread!

  30. Tonight at 10pm on four…. Ballot Monkeys. For those politico’s who feel like a chortle.

  31. @cloudspotter
    “No straight Lab- Con marginals for two weeks. He keeps polling the side shows.”

    Yep pretty much. It’s annoying. But I guess beggars can’t be choosers.

  32. @Simon K

    Colne Valley and High Peak are quite far down Labour’s target list.

  33. The Con lead in last night’s YG came as a surprise because TND had not tweeted it early.

    I suspect he may see 1 pt leads as much of a muchness (especially when other pollsters are showing larger Con leads, making his poll seem underwhelming), but if the Con lead is 2 or more he will find cause for excitement.

    No comment yet from him so my inclination is dead heat or Labour lead. But he may yet confound us again.

  34. Small Tory majority?

  35. I forecast…..
    Lab 35
    Con 33
    LD 10
    UKIP 12

  36. REDSPARROW

    The oddball is the interview, not the participants, as it doesn’t fit into the conventional pattern of politics (not a bad thing).

  37. I really think there is hardly any point in polling Scotland anymore. Its a done deal for SNP.

  38. SimonK

    You mention Colne Valley, I go to Wiki, next thing I’m reading about the mysterious disappearance of a 1920s MP and other shenanigans. Top stuff

  39. @RAF but they are still Lab-Con marginals which appear to be closely contested. They are also the type of seat Labour will want to gain to be sure of a plurality of seats.

  40. @Simon K

    Or TND could be learning the art of the silent dagger.

  41. While I think there has been some movement in the polls I think yougov will only change very slightly if at all. I would be surprised if tonight is more than a 2 point lead to either Lab or Con and I would think a tie is favourite. I don’t expect much change for other parties either. Of course my theory could be completely wrong and it will be Con +6.

  42. @bromleyben

    No!

    No majorities allowed

  43. EXILEINYORKS
    The oddball is the interview, not the participants, as it doesn’t fit into the conventional pattern of politics….

    I know. Brilliant.

  44. @Smithy

    We’re starting to lose faith in you. You need a few solid performances or you’ll be in the relegation zone.

  45. via NC

    Jeremy Vine will use FOUR swingometers in this year’s BBC election coverage:
    CON-LAB
    CON-LIB
    LAB-LIB
    LAB-SNP

  46. @Cloudspotter
    We don’t know what Ashcroft is polling. We only know what polling he is choosing to publish. We don’t even know whether he is not publishing any polling.

  47. Muddy – agree with you, but maths not that different in the scenario you paint (ie out of 6 polls 3 will be YG which is neutral, 1 is Ashcroft which is neutral as well (see AW’s house effect analysis) and 1 is TNS which has a Labour bias house effect, and so only ICM are Tory biased) … I think

    Of course some people think Ashcroft MUST be biased, but there is no data to support that, just a conspiracy theory …

  48. Omni – Jeremy Vine

    Lord help us, I still haven’t got over ride em cowboy someone pointed me to the other day

  49. Just putting things in perspective regarding a possible small Tory lead. For those claiming this is evidence of a Tory led government after May look at the numbers.
    I played with May2015’s electoral map and delivered a labour wipe out in Scotland (lab two seats) and then had the GB figures of Con 35 Lab 32
    This three point Tory lead gives us seats of
    Con 281
    Lab 263
    To further confuse things Con along with libs,DUP and UKIP only equals 319 seats while Lab along with SNP alone is 318 so then throw in SDLP, plaid, Green and Lady H we have 326.
    To conclude we need to see a much bigger Tory lead before we can start predicting Cameron as PM.

  50. @Bromley Ben

    I’ve received two leaflets from Bob Neill. The second one was a real collector’s item. It was all positive. Not a single negative comment about any other party.

    I won’t be voting for Bob but I very much endorse the approach taken

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