So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

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  1. RAF: the point is that he woulldn’t remain in government indefinitely, but rather let the people decide within a month or so. Hopefully after a fresh election a majority (or stable coalition) government would emerge as voters would most certainly rethink their choice.

    I am just saying that a minority government of 270 seats wthout a C&S agreement would be far more an exercise in brinkmanship than letting the people decide in a second election.. If I were one of the prospective Labour ministers who one day would like to be party leader, I would definitely advise against trying to form a government on a technicality without having reliable parliamentary support in the form of a C&S agreement.

    Actually, I suppose those questions should be asked directly to the leaders so that voters could know a priori how they would behave in those hypothetical scenarios.

  2. @NMidlander

    Welcome.

    Most of us know nothing about polling so you’re in good company!

  3. New topics on new thread..

  4. Mori polls have tended to be volatile because the headline figures are limited to those 100% certain to vote.

  5. IPSOS ‘corker’

    I was reading somewhere else yesterday that we had a run of 5 elections (79-97) in which there was a ‘wow’ rogue poll in the last week eg Maggie’s wobble in ’87. The IPSOS is bang on time.

    We might as well guess, I’ll say Con +8%

  6. @Rivers10. Glad you also think Simon Hughes chance of survival isn’t as high as 86%. I would have (unscientifically) said 60%!

  7. Oh well, if the topic has turned to predicting the future….

    Let’s play a game – “Predict the Next Seven Days”. This needs to be a quick narrative of what you think is going to happen (which remember folks, isn’t the same as what you want to happen). It can be as serious or frivolous as you want, but we can look back at the serious one’s come next Friday and see who was the best prophet a week out.

    OK then, I’ll start us off.

    Despite the marginals polling etc, on the ground things are starting to just push towards the Tories. A combination of the Scary SNP narrative (working in the right areas, not working / putting people off where it doesn’t matter), people warming to “Hell Yeah, Cameron” in his daily live Q&As and a general “you know what, things aren’t actually that bad” feel means that the Conservatives maintain their poll lead around 1 to 1.5 – not enough on one poll to be a lead greater than the margin of error but when you average it across eight or so national polls it’s clear they’re winning.

    Then, on Bank Holiday Monday the Duchess of Cambridge goes into labour (no pun intended so get that picture of Kate and Ed out of your head), delivers a girl on Tuesday and drives home after the obligatory steps of the Maternity Wing photo-shoot on Wednesday. The electorate wakes up on Thurday morning to not only a whole horde of “Good Morning” GOTV leaflets on their welcome mat, but colour pictures of Baby Cambridge on the front pages and on Breakfast TV. Everyone feels happy, everyone is rejoicing and subconsciously there is a “Isn’t Britain a great place to be” incumbency bounce for Cameron.

    And all this is *just* enough to push the Coalition over the finish line. The results come in and the Tories manage just below 300 seats (yes they lose some to Labour but they pick up handfuls from Clegg), the Lib Dems just scrape into the mid 20s and between the two of them they have around 323 to 325 seats – not enough for an absolute majority but when the 4 Sinn Fein MPs don’t turn up, enough to govern.

    Cameron is PM again by the skin of his teeth.

    Plausible?

    What do you think is going to happen?

  8. N Midlander

    Welcome

    It always happens. You take the plunge and a new thread appears just after your post appears.

    Looking forward to seeing you later.

  9. @nmidlander

    Hello. Good anecdote.

    Best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft a-gley

  10. Sounds not that likely Peter. I personally don’t feel Will and Kate’s child will have any effect on the election even though they are having it in a private hospital!

  11. RAF,
    Sorry I probably missed something up thread but how do we know tomorrow’s
    poll is a conservative lead?

  12. PROFHOWARD

    “intresting to see that Prof Fisher has revised upwards his conservative lead”

    Fisher revised down last week, but C290 and C35/L32 has been his baseline projection throughout the short campaign, as he models in a shy Tory bonus, a turnout bonus and an incumbency bonus in marginals. Other seat projections for C35/L32 don’t use some or all of those to the same degree.

  13. @Ann In Wales

    Which poll?

    YG is Con 34 Lab 35
    Comres is Con 35 Lab 35

    If you mean tomorrow’s Ipsos Mori poll, Ben Page suggested it would be a Tory lead. There have been other twitter comments about it being “a corker”, although I’m not sure fro. where that description actually came.

  14. Election Forecast

    NOWCAST
    Con 279
    Lab 270
    SNP 48
    LD 27
    DUP 8
    PC 4
    SDLP 3
    Ukip 2
    Greens 1
    Others 8

    “Forecast GB (with apologies to @Unicorn):
    Con 278
    Lab 268
    SNP 52
    LD 27
    PC 3
    Ukip 2
    Greens 1
    Others 1

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