Ten days to go to the election and we’ve had interesting day of polls – four new GB polls, some new constituency polling and a new Scottish poll. The four GB polls today are the weekly Ashcroft and ICM telephone polls, the twice weekly Populus poll and, to come later on tonight, the daily YouGov poll for the Sun:

  • Populus had figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs). They continue to produce figures that are more favourable to Labour than many of the other pollsters – you have to go all the way back to August to find a Populus poll with a Conservative lead.
  • In contrast ICM have tended to produce some of the better polls for the Conservatives – their last four polls showed Conservative leads and today’s has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% (tabs)
  • Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, KIP 11%, GRN 7% (tabs) – this is obviously a particularly good poll for the Conservative party, but all the usual caveats apply. No other poll is showing such positive figures for them.

Lord Ashcroft also released four new constituency polls, this time covering four UKIP target seats (or at least, four where he had previously found them doing well, I’m not sure whether Cannock Chase was ever a seat they were targetting – certainly Ashcroft’s poll found respondents reporting a lower level of UKIP activity there). When Ashcroft previously polled these seats he found UKIP in an extremely close second place, this time he found them falling back and seemingly out of serious contention in three of them:

  • Cannock Chase is a seat the Conservatives won on a vast swing last time, but where the new MP has stood down after various gaffes. In October 2014 Ashcroft found UKIP two points behind Labour, 30% to Labour’s 32%. The latest poll still shows Labour ahead, but UKIP now trail in third place on 21%.
  • Great Grimsby is widely regarded as the best opportunity for a UKIP gain from Labour at this election – a Lincolnshire fishing port where the veteran MP Austin Mitchell is standing down. In December Ashcroft found UKIP just a point behind Labour, but they’ve fallen back considerably since then and today’s poll has them 17 points behind Labour
  • Great Yarmouth fits the pattern for a typical UKIP target seat, a seaside town and marginal seat out on England’s east coast. Last July Ashcroft found a tight three way fight – Con 33%, UKIP 31%, Lab 28%. Today’s poll has UKIP falling back to 24%, but Conservative and Labour still in a close battle – Con 36%, Lab 34%
  • Castle Point is the only one of the three where UKIP still seems to be in the race. It’s an unusual seat – the former Conservative MP Bob Spink sort of defected to UKIP in 2008 and contested the seat as an Independent in 2010, coming second with 27%. In February Ashcroft found UKIP just one point behind the Tories, in today’s poll the Conservatives have widened their lead to 5 points.

Finally a new TNS poll of Scotland shows the SNP moving into an even stronger lead. Their topline figures with changes from their last Scottish poll are CON 13%(nc), LAB 22%(-2), LDEM 6%(nc), SNP 54%(+2), UKIP 2%(+1), GRN 2%(-1). Tabs are here.


808 Responses to “A round up of Monday’s polling”

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  1. @Hawthorn

    The eponymous Govern heroine to Rab C. Nesbit’s hero.

  2. Hawthorn

    You are a whipper snappet

  3. Bloody predictive text

    That should read as snapper

  4. @RAYFROMTHENORTH

    Looking at the UK-Elect calculations for Loughborough the relevant factors (in addition to the swing in England) seem to be the Ashcroft constituency poll (of course!) plus a Conservative first-time winner incumbency bonus, plus the change in parties standing (Green added, BNP 2040 votes last time, not standing this time).

  5. UKElect

    Thanks, I posted above I wasn’t suggesting anything wrong with your numbers, poorly phrased. m/c

  6. Has anybody been following the situation in the Isle of Wight (I know it well) where the Conservatives seem to be at war amongst themselves, with the (now ex) election agent opposing the candidate?

  7. BTW looking at the initial coverage of the Milli-Brand thing I think it makes Milliband look fresher than Cameron. He’s reaching out to new characters rather than the same old, same old and in new formats too.
    Sometimes that backfires when the politician just looks uncomfortable and fake but Milliband, as in the ‘flash hen party’, seems more comfortable than most.

  8. Beware the tactical voting tools – http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-recurring-theme/

    Quite an affront to voters, that.

  9. The media environment for under-30s is very different these days. Lots of people will be ascribing significance to the QT special in the polls with fieldwork following it — for that reason, I hope those polls ask whether respondents watched it — but live broadcast specials don’t matter as much as they once did.

    To tie this in to polls: we’ve discussed here how a lot of the topline variation may come from the likely-voter screen and reassigning don’t knows, and the historical precedent is that older and/or more affluent voters show up in higher numbers than younger and/or less affluent ones.

    I’ve talked here before about the specifics of weighting for 2010 non-voters and turnout predictions this time round, but there’s clearly a cohort of “probably won’t vote” respondents in the 18-30 age range that the polls take at their word, and will be the target of canvassers. We’ll only know whether the past is predictive here once the exit polls appear.

  10. IOW

    Hello, left-field LD gain?

  11. Graham

    Jack Sheldon
    ‘ Only in the highly unlikely event that an inability to command a majority is clear but the PM does not resign would the civil service have to advise the Queen to dismiss the PM and call for the Leader of the Opposition’

    I don’t quite go along with that on the basis that the sitting PM can still opt to meet Parliament and not resign until defeated on the Queens Speech. Had he been so minded Brown could have done this in 2010 – even after the Coalition Agreement had been made. He could have chosen to make the LibDems to go into the Lobbies against him to put the Tories in office

    I think Jack Sheldon is right here (indeed I thought it was a very good comment in general). The Queen has lost her power to call elections, but not to dismiss a government. Of course it will not be used officially, but if it is clear that someone else has to ability to command the confidence of the Commons (and the civil servants will be on the phone to all Party Leaders as soon as they can), any PM who tried squatting would be under immense pressure to go, both directly and indirectly from Party grandees etc.

    Any really determined squatter would possibly even be dismissed if they tried to do anything significant. More likely the civil service would just decide to ignore such instructions – it’s not just the Press that can make decisions about ‘legitimacy’.

    And there would be no need to wait for a Queen’s Speech either. As soon as Parliament met, the newly (re)elected Speaker[1] would accept a formal No Confidence motion (probably jointly from the leaders of whichever Parties are uniting to vote the PM down) to be voted on as soon as possible.

    [1] Given that Cameron has managed to seriously annoy both Bercow and Her Maj recently, he’s not going to get any favours from either.

  12. Statgeek

    I was almost surprised to see someone other than Barbazenzero exposing the code for the Scottish seats.

  13. I liked Milliband the movie to-nite

  14. JOHNMO

    Who made it, “Hammer”?

  15. Hawthorn as Raf says she is rabs long suffering wife and in real life a strong independence supporter .She seems to be a bit of warm up for NS out and about on the street.

  16. @Rayfromthenorth

    The Conservative IOW campaign is a total farce, utterly shambolic, but with the opposition split it is still extremely difficult to see anything other than a very comfortable Tory win.

    That said, political earthquakes have happened on the Island before.

  17. Lot of debate on here today re:UK economy. Article by FT seems to cover the main points.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11483850-ecf5-11e4-bebf-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Yd8aVGeR

  18. JOHNMO

    Liked the fact Ed included those old shots of his dad and created a new context/message about him following all those attacks by the DM.

  19. Ed Miliband a portrait was directed by Paul Greengrass of Bourne movies .

  20. Roger Mexico
    There is plenty of precedent from the 19th century whereby PMs did not resign until first meeting Parliament – indeed it happened even when the Opposition party had gained a majority. It was clearly stated back in 2010 and post Feb 1974 election that Brown and Heath had the option of testing their support in Parliament should they have wished to do so. Re-2010 Brown might have decided to try to create divisions within LibDem ranks by making some policy offers that appealed to quite a few of them in the hope that the Coalition Agreement might unravel almost before the ink was dry.Although he did not go down that road, politically I believe he could have done so.
    The most recent example would be post 1923 election when Baldwin chose to take his dismissal from Parliament rather than resign as soon as Asquith indicated support for the first minority Labour Government.

  21. TOH, I assume that is an endorsement that is was very good

  22. JOHNMO.
    I have just viewed Ed Miliband’s broadcast. I felt uplifted by it, but I am too much of a sentimentalist. Perhaps doubting voters may be swayed to his side.

  23. Mary doll is Elaine C Smith

  24. BILLYWHITEHURST.

    I do not accept your analysis. You cannot be so presumptuous to think that every contributed to UKPR thinks as you do.

  25. @carfrew

    “If Russell Brand backs EM in the election it would be…

    39% The kiss of death for EM
    25% A great Intervention
    35% The end of the world as we know it”

    I’m astonished. Wouldn’t it be the greatest constitutional crisis since the abdication

  26. “There is plenty of precedent from the 19th century whereby PMs did not resign until first meeting Parliament”

    Good history which i occasionally like on this site. Disraeli was the first PM to resign before putting a vote to the house in 1868.

  27. RAF

    Ah, I know who you mean. To be honest, I thought it was amusing back in the 1990s, but the revival was pish.

  28. “That said, political earthquakes have happened on the Island before.”

    On Iceland and in Italy as well.

  29. I think the EdM interview with Russell Brand is a huge game changer for Labour.

    The everyday man & woman knows how anti-government Brand is and if EdM by the end of the interview can actually get him to vote and vote Labour I think that could win him the election.

    Exciting times or what.

  30. Well he said it -I stood for labour leader to move away from new labour.

    Judgement day beckons.

  31. @Hawthorn

    Agreed. I really liked the original series.

  32. BlueBob

    Or it could lose Labour a lot of votes to UKIP who seem to be gaining a lot of socially-conservative Labour voters.

  33. @Oldnat

    Aye, it’s good to see that we have alert folk around these days.

  34. How old are you Pete?

  35. @Johnmo

    Why do you ask?

  36. BlueBob

    I would love what you to say to come true but I just don’t see Brand endorsing EM being any kind of game changer. Most folk will think so what.

  37. It is getting close…i have been tracking the England only swings on the England only polls as shown on wiki.

    Until about 2 weeks ago, the 1 month average swing from con to labour was about 4.5-5%…in the last two weeks the average has been 3.5%. On a UNS basis this means the loss of about 42 seats from tory to labour…

    If this swing gets below 2.75% con to labour, Miliband will struggle to get the 35 seats he needs to block the tories…that’s a 0.75% swing to the tories in the last 9 days in England….

    This could happen. The vote Labour get SNP run govt. line is working I would suggest.

  38. @ Mikey

    To be fair, I agree, it will not have any effect whatsoever.

    Was just a bit of sarcasm really, if important things like the economy cannot move the polls then RB has no chance.

    He has many twatter followers but he has many people that dislike him also.

  39. If Brand does endorse Miliband (please, oh please let him) I think most folk will think that Miliband must be a nut like Brand is perceived to be by the majority of voters. (I seem to remember a YouGov poll a few months ago showing just how disliked Brand is.)

  40. @Bluebob

    I agree that it helps. EM is gradually re-engaging with traditional Labour voters who have previously jumped ship or lost faith in the parliamentary process.

  41. I haven’t followed the ‘MiliBrand’ story that closely and I’ve never seen Brand’s ‘Trews’ (ugh) so forgive me if what I’m about to say is complete bobbins.
    I doubt Brand will come right out and endorse EM – I think that would harm his ‘outsider’ appeal and come over as a bit inauthentic (people would probably start asking if money had changed hands!) but I think viewers will probably be left with a broadly positive view of Ed. Whether it will make any difference is a different matter (how many of Brand’s supporters are registered to vote? Would this have made more sense before the registration deadline?) but given that Brand’s videos typically get over 100,000 views in their first week online and this one is likely to get more because it’s so high profile, a strong performance from Miliband could swing a decent number of voters and help get Big Mo onside.

  42. @ Peter Crawford

    “This could happen. The vote Labour get SNP run govt. line is working I would suggest.”

    Who knows what’s next, something crazy as UKIP only getting 10% of the vote.

    But that will never happen right?

  43. BlueBob

    I take it all back. Cameron smiling alongside the dreadful Katie Hopkins has swung it to Labour!!

  44. @ Mikey

    Haha, yep that’s worse.

    @ RAF

    Sarcasm is obviously not my strong point :)

  45. Can anyone explain to me the rationale behind why doing an interview with Brand or shock horror worse still Brand endorsing Labour! Sorry I’m not being funny but I can’t see how it’s negative? Very likely to make no difference at all but negative reaction, I really don’t understand that synopsis

  46. I still have UKIP on high single digits for election day. 8% or something.

    They’re holding up better than I expected, but I’m not changing that prediction.

  47. Two quick points.
    First I highly doubt Brand will openly endorse Milliband. He may give a positive conclusion but endorsement is a no. Speaking as a Trews viewer here he has in the past made his disdain for all the main parties clear. He wouldn’t even endorse the Greens describing them as the best out of a bad bunch thus I cant imagine him being particularly impressed with Milliband.

    Second point I had no idea Couper was a woman, I view most posters as gender neutral but from the moment I started lurking here I immediately thought of Couper as a dude, looking back I genuinely have no idea why….internet anonymity eh!

  48. Smithy

    Russell Brand??? I mean, what was Miliband thinking. Surely he wants to be Prime Minister – not Wolfie Smith !

  49. Omni

    You are likely to be out by a factor of 10, regarding Ukip.

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