Ten days to go to the election and we’ve had interesting day of polls – four new GB polls, some new constituency polling and a new Scottish poll. The four GB polls today are the weekly Ashcroft and ICM telephone polls, the twice weekly Populus poll and, to come later on tonight, the daily YouGov poll for the Sun:

  • Populus had figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs). They continue to produce figures that are more favourable to Labour than many of the other pollsters – you have to go all the way back to August to find a Populus poll with a Conservative lead.
  • In contrast ICM have tended to produce some of the better polls for the Conservatives – their last four polls showed Conservative leads and today’s has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% (tabs)
  • Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, KIP 11%, GRN 7% (tabs) – this is obviously a particularly good poll for the Conservative party, but all the usual caveats apply. No other poll is showing such positive figures for them.

Lord Ashcroft also released four new constituency polls, this time covering four UKIP target seats (or at least, four where he had previously found them doing well, I’m not sure whether Cannock Chase was ever a seat they were targetting – certainly Ashcroft’s poll found respondents reporting a lower level of UKIP activity there). When Ashcroft previously polled these seats he found UKIP in an extremely close second place, this time he found them falling back and seemingly out of serious contention in three of them:

  • Cannock Chase is a seat the Conservatives won on a vast swing last time, but where the new MP has stood down after various gaffes. In October 2014 Ashcroft found UKIP two points behind Labour, 30% to Labour’s 32%. The latest poll still shows Labour ahead, but UKIP now trail in third place on 21%.
  • Great Grimsby is widely regarded as the best opportunity for a UKIP gain from Labour at this election – a Lincolnshire fishing port where the veteran MP Austin Mitchell is standing down. In December Ashcroft found UKIP just a point behind Labour, but they’ve fallen back considerably since then and today’s poll has them 17 points behind Labour
  • Great Yarmouth fits the pattern for a typical UKIP target seat, a seaside town and marginal seat out on England’s east coast. Last July Ashcroft found a tight three way fight – Con 33%, UKIP 31%, Lab 28%. Today’s poll has UKIP falling back to 24%, but Conservative and Labour still in a close battle – Con 36%, Lab 34%
  • Castle Point is the only one of the three where UKIP still seems to be in the race. It’s an unusual seat – the former Conservative MP Bob Spink sort of defected to UKIP in 2008 and contested the seat as an Independent in 2010, coming second with 27%. In February Ashcroft found UKIP just one point behind the Tories, in today’s poll the Conservatives have widened their lead to 5 points.

Finally a new TNS poll of Scotland shows the SNP moving into an even stronger lead. Their topline figures with changes from their last Scottish poll are CON 13%(nc), LAB 22%(-2), LDEM 6%(nc), SNP 54%(+2), UKIP 2%(+1), GRN 2%(-1). Tabs are here.


808 Responses to “A round up of Monday’s polling”

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  1. I fully appreciate that DC and GO have very successfully persuaded much (and easily enough) of the UK population that (a) they are working through a long-term economic plan and (b) that this plan has been successful. I also fully appreciate that this is likely to win them the election (or at least allow them to lead a coalition again).

    I am assuming, however, that everyone on here accepts that the DC / GO economic claims are, in reality, largely fictional and that the following is much closer to reality:

    – Ham-fisted austerity and doom-mongering for first 18 months, with ludicrous comparison with Greece.
    – Panic at recession (and its effect on public borrowing) by end of 2011. OBR tells GO and Treasury that austerity is depressing growth of economy (by at least 1% GDP per annum)
    – In fright, GO slows up on austerity from early 2012 and launches fiscal measures to boost housing market (‘any growth is good growth’).
    – Virtually no progress or clue on productivity over the 5 years
    – Modest growth in 2013 and 2014 already seemingly falling away by Q1 2015, despite massive boost of oil price falls.
    – You could go on.

    I have always assumed when reading this forum that (nearly) everyone on this forum, as educated and engaged punters, would accept the above bullet points and agree with the view that GO’s real achievement has been to very effectively put a favourable gloss on something that has really rather been a bit of a botch job.

    BTW, this is not a party political point. DC will still be PM on 8/5, have no fear, and the last decent spell of economic management as far as I am concerned was 1993-2001, a period that covers both parties.

  2. @Ashman

    “If there is a Conservative win, you will see rebound, unless that has already been priced in”

    ———

    What we see in practice, is that what happens to investment rather depends on policies pursued once elected. Eg, cuts post-2010 GE saw lacklustre business investment, no surprise when cuts take demand out of the economy and there’s no sufficient additional/external stimulus.

    Look what happened in Thatcher’s first term for another example…

  3. billywhitehurst

    “DC will still be PM on 8/5, have no fear”

    Agreed. That’s a certainty.

    The question is – “Will he still be PM on 18th May when Parliament reconvenes?”

  4. Bramley,
    Totally agree with your post regarding Russell Brand.Marvellous riposte from him regarding Cameron’s put down at lunchtime.

  5. Here’s today’s 20-poll geometric median with changes since yesterday:

    con: 33.4 (+0.3)
    lab: 34 (-)
    lib: 8 (-0.1)
    ukip: 13.7 (-0.2)
    grn: 5.2 (+0.1)
    oth: 5.8 (-0.2)

    Obviously reflects the good run of polls the Tories have had the last few days – tonight’s YG will be interesting. Are we due anything else?

  6. Other then you gov any other polls tonight?

  7. Carfrew

    :-)

  8. @ billywhitehurst

    The LTEP is obviously a total crock – nobody serious minded thinks otherwise. However I had always thought the Tories would get back in on the back of that message. Then I was pleasantly surprised to find the public weren’t falling for it after all. I do however still believe that after stumbling into the anti-SNP strategy that the Tories will still get back in. And we will have a desperately unhappy country.

  9. And when I say ‘interesting’ in my last post, I mean actually interesting, not the Tom N-D kind of ‘interesting’

  10. Funtypippin

    Thanks for ‘median’ update

  11. UKELECT
    I made a very simple model myself, also separating out Scotland, Wales and London. It uses Uniform swing and some incumbency bonuses.
    Mine is a bit more positive for Cons, on about 290 on those percentages.
    Can I ask how you have dealt with incumbency?

  12. @ Billywhitehurst

    Thanks for that. Spot on.

    ‘Economics for Voters’ by Vicky Pryce, Andy Ross and Peter Urwin is a good and fairly impartial primer on this sort of thing.

  13. Russell Brand has released a UKIP video today on his ‘Trews News’ as well, analysing their PPB. Not favourable to them.

  14. I’m going to be very partisan and make a confession… I adore Russell Brand. So there….

  15. Billy, you make some valid points, UK housing has played
    a big part with the feel good factor, that is a feel good provided
    you already own property!.
    I really would not want to be 25 years younger starting out now,
    it was hard enough then.

    However talk of austerity is completely ridiculous imv,
    we have added the best part of £500 Billion to the national debt
    over the past 5 years.

    I do not support UKIP, however Farage is the UK politician who
    has told it like it is on the deficit – I do not agree with many of his
    views on ways to reduce it, that’s a different discussion.

  16. MS tweets that seat-specific question in TNS poll shows Lab with a 3% lead over the Tories with the LDs in 5th place:

    Lab 33.5%
    Con 30.66
    Ukip 16.2
    Green 7.4
    LD 7.3

    http://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/593096066221920256/photo/1

  17. “No doubt we’ll be hearing soon from our erstwhile media that Russell Brand has actually written the draft of a Labour budget and we have seven days to save the country!”

    ————

    Online “poll” in the Telegraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11567454/Is-Russell-Brand-about-to-endorse-Ed-Miliband-after-secret-late-night-meeting.html

    “If Russell Brand backs EM in the election it would be…

    39% The kiss of death for EM
    25% A great Intervention
    35% The end of the world as we know it”

  18. I know I said that I was disappearing until the election but I wanted to make two points –
    First – The people sneering at Ed Miliband being interviewed by Russell Brand sound a lot like when Obama was interviewed by Hank Green and other YouTube stars.

    Not that the Ed Miliband interview might not backfire – it’s quite likely that with sneaky editing and/or it being a carcrash of an interview, it’ll play very badly.

    Second –
    GDP figures are best looked at 4Q/4Q, not Q/Q to see the trend – because you can have some Qs up, followed by down, but you don’t get the trend unless you look at the proper yearly figures.
    The ONS only releases a proper yearly growth figure (4Q/4Q) at the end of each calender year so here’s the figures for each Q:
    Q1 2014: 2.1%
    Q2 2014: 2.4%
    Q3 2014: 2.7%
    Q4 2014: 2.8%
    Q1 2015: 2.7%

    So the trend is increasing rates of economic growth with a very slight dip for the first Q of this year. If the data gets revised up that completely disappears.

    But that has nothing to do with the public reaction to the figures – if the public perceive that their situation isn’t improving, it doesn’t matter what GDP figures actually say.

    Luckily YouGov provide figures for that –
    Latest “Feelgood factor” figures are for April 24-25 at -6% (% Saying things will get better minus thing will get worse for their household).
    This is the joint highest figure this parliament – an improvement on -16 in January and -18 the same time, April, last year.

  19. Soz, “The end of BRITAIN as we know it”.

    (Would hate to make it seem melodramatic…)

  20. RAF – TNS poll

    Hey is that 2 polls now (after RogerM earlier) today with a Lab lead? AdamB will not be pleased………

  21. CARFREW

    LOL

  22. “However talk of austerity is completely ridiculous imv,
    we have added the best part of £500 Billion to the national debt
    over the past 5 years.”

    ———

    Just because debt goes up does not mean there wasn’t any austerity. There were lots of cuts, many services and jobs cut.

    It just means the cuts wound up costing more than they hoped in the end.

    (Like selling your car to try and save money, only you lose your job cos can’t get to work and wind up worse off…)

  23. Carfrew

    “Britain”, “the world”

    There’s a difference?

  24. TINGEDFRINGE

    Thanks. Very clear.

    No doubt people are beginning to feel more confident about their own finances. However it seems to me that the message that ‘real people’ do not share fully in any growth still cuts through. People tend to think that they are never as well off as they should be and someone somewhere is doing better unfairly, whether that be a benefit claimant or a company boss.

  25. @Oldnat

    Well, the Scots are different, obviously…

  26. Just watched the Brand teaser and he asks with working person paying 20% paying tax ,amazon paying 0.05% can you deal with it.

    Miliband says yes ,needs international agreement and a government determined to act Brand says you are that government ?and EM says yes.

    So Brand has decided to test whether EM is serious about dealing with tax ,avoidance and evasion.

    Dont think brand could be asked to endorse anyone but it gives miliband a platform to people who prob wont vote otherwise.

    Is it better/worse than joey essex ,being a friend of Jeremy Clarkson,or being introduced by that great actress mary doll.

    Yes maybe as its a serious conversation(marydoll is serious too )

  27. @Cloud spotter

    UK-Elect actually deals with incumbency in several different ways depending on the forecasting method used (it supports several). In its simplest form it is possible to configure separate incumbency percentages for each party where their sitting MP is standing down, standing again for the first time, or standing again for the second or subsequent time. UK-Elect sorts out the various percentages so that, for example, the forecast party percentages sum to the correct overall total.

    If you are really interested in the full details you could check the manual! There is a link to it on the downloads page: UK-Elect downloads page

  28. ASHMAN, Q1 US macro data has disappointed.

    The UK also has to deal with a high value GBP/Euro currently.

    China has slowed markedly, so any global growth is hard to
    find currently, much of the Eurozone is skirting recession.

    If you are an optimist then UK growth accelerates in the latter half
    of 2015.
    —————————————————————–
    I agree with you regarding China, which can have impact on us directly and indirectly. Will it be that significant, I doubt it, China will slow.

    Re USA, that headline has occurred on a number of occasion, over the last 5 years, it has no meaning. Lot investment was cut particularly in the Oil Sector, which is too be expected. Which has had an impact. Now that has been priced in, we have to look at Q2, already some indicators are saying positive start.

    The main issue for us is Euro, saying that, when it was the other way round, what was impact on us?

    When QE took place, sterling devalued relative to the Euro, did that reduce purchase from that region nope, in some sectors it remained the same, some decreased, and in some increased, meaning overall we purchased more goods and services, instead of less. What does that tell you?

    And did Euro purchased more of our goods, in that period, nope. Their economy is recovering, to a slight degree, also a number of British business are bullish on Euro orders, we will have to wait and see.

    At this stage it is all its looking slightly more +Ve than as you have expressed.

    There are a whole range of factors, these all have to be in play, for us to have a negative result, that you are implying.

    If you read historically, the live commentary on GDP, when ever it slows down it doom. People have been more wrong on this point than right, historically, of course.

  29. Carfrew

    If you prick us, do we not bleed? if you tickle us, do we not laugh? if you poison us, do we not die? and if you wrong us, shall we not revenge? If we are like you in the rest, we will resemble you in that.

  30. @Carfrew
    “Soz, “The end of BRITAIN as we know it”.”

    Has REM endorsed Labour?

  31. Not sure if it has been mentioned, but Brand has released a trailer for the Miliband interview.

    Not much there of course to glean any info from but Miliband looks very assured dealing with his question. I expect Miliband to come out of this quite well.

    Probably no poll bounce but doubt it will be in any way negative for him.

  32. tingedfringe

    I know I said that I was disappearing until the election but I wanted to make two points –
    First – The people sneering at Ed Miliband being interviewed by Russell Brand sound a lot like when Obama was interviewed by Hank Green and other YouTube stars.

    Not that the Ed Miliband interview might not backfire – it’s quite likely that with sneaky editing and/or it being a carcrash of an interview, it’ll play very badly.

    Second –
    GDP figures are best looked at 4Q/4Q, not Q/Q to see the trend – because you can have some Qs up, followed by down, but you don’t get the trend unless you look at the proper yearly figures.
    The ONS only releases a proper yearly growth figure (4Q/4Q) at the end of each calender year so here’s the figures for each Q:
    Q1 2014: 2.1%
    Q2 2014: 2.4%
    Q3 2014: 2.7%
    Q4 2014: 2.8%
    Q1 2015: 2.7%
    ———————————————————————-

    Well expressed, and well put.

    When it comes to looking at various sentiment indexes, I have found at certain points they are out of sink with discretionary spending, but saying that, over the last period, we have seen record number of new car sales, which may correlate with the YouGove feel good factor poll.

  33. Carfrew
    Watch out for the revenge

  34. Six forecasts have changed today, on average the Conservatives lead by seven seats. Four Conservative leads, one Labour and two ties. Tables below:

    http://1drv.ms/1DTvZCB

  35. @OLDNAT

    “If you prick us, do we not bleed? if you tickle us, do we not laugh? if you poison us, do we not die? and if you wrong us, shall we not revenge? If we are like you in the rest, we will resemble you in that.”

    ————–

    Well, I’m not taking any chances. You might eat haggis and the men wear skirts but your dangerous!!…

  36. You’re

  37. Barney

    I think the revenge is already being wreaked on LiS!

  38. UKElect/Anybody ??

    Just browsing through the constituency forecasts, what’s going on in Loughborough? This has I believe been a reliable bellweather for some time – it is swinging low to Cons, 1%-ish.

    N.W.Leics next door (more WWC I know) we have 2.7% to Lab.

  39. Carfrew

    Don’t worry about the men in skirts. Remember we also have “the most dangerous woman in the world”.

    Whether that’s Amber or Couper, I’m not sure. :-)

  40. WB

    Per Laura Kuenssberg:

    Labour confident in ground war: an interesting perspective, particularly the number of individual contacts and the literature distribution.

    Love the last sentence [“In 2010 not a single Scottish seat changed hands. This time, nearly all of them might.”]

    A lot of us have been pointing out that irony for a while now. Indeed it’s just about possible that more seats will change hands in Scotland in 2015 than in the rest of the UK put together[1].

    However I think it may be possible to overestimate the importance of the ‘ground war’. If you look at the latest Ashcroft marginals:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Key-marginal-constituencies-27-April-20152.pdf#page=5

    they are well ahead in terms of contact in three of them and not that far behind in Castle Point where they are only on 12%[2]. But apart from Grimsby (where the previous Ashcroft poll looks like an outlier) it doesn’t seem to make a lot of difference. Though even a few points may be vital.

    [1] No apologies from all those people who used to complain loudly whenever we used to discuss Scotland on UKPR, I notice.

    [2] And you would therefore hope they were sending people over to a more winnable seat such as Thurrock. Oddly enough ‘Other’ get 5% in Castle Point on CVI (up from 2% SVI) despite the fact there is no other candidate standing apart from the usual five. If this is for the Canvey Island Independents, that may help UKIP a bit.

  41. @OLDNAT

    “Don’t worry about the men in skirts. Remember we also have “the most dangerous woman in the world”.
    Whether that’s Amber or Couper, I’m not sure. :-)”

    ———–

    Amber and Couped!! Of course!!! There’s another good matchup for our channel…

  42. Couped = Couper

  43. Regarding the economic growth numbers let face the fact that they are moving up and down every quarter and also being just provisional therefore the numbers will change to the end. Also Labour claim the points of Thatchers brave reform program in the 80s. She broke the trade union, the marxist spirit in Britain and Old Labour. The left never went back to their origins. God bless.

  44. RAYFROMTHENORTH
    UKElect/Anybody??

    I’m looking, I’m looking…. we’re not all as fast as you!

  45. @RAF

    “Has REM endorsed Labour?”

    ———-

    Dunno. Are they keen on an end to Stamp Duty?

  46. Woohoo just had a SNP canvassers first one of the campaign. In fact the first time I have ever been canvassed. Husband is bending his ear at the door poor guy he needs to get on – he’s got our vote.

  47. @BARNEY CROCKETT

    “Watch out for the revenge”

    ———–

    That’s why I’m always nice to Scotties. I even try and help out with the currency and oil price thingies from time to time…

  48. @roger mexico – I appreciate what you say re: Ashcroft but I suspect that if the Labour ground operation really is far superior then it will show up on the day (and by post) in a way that constituency polling can’t really pick up. It’s a big ‘if’ of course and the impact of ground operations is something that is endlessly contested.

  49. SUNREADA

    Who is Mary Doll? I ask that as someone who is not yet an old fogey (mid 30s)

  50. Loughborough

    Just thought to have a look on constituency threads, ‘poor candidate’/’local party in poor shape’ seems to be some of it.

    I wasn’t suggesting the figures were wrong, just curious on the poor Lab showing

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