Ten days to go to the election and we’ve had interesting day of polls – four new GB polls, some new constituency polling and a new Scottish poll. The four GB polls today are the weekly Ashcroft and ICM telephone polls, the twice weekly Populus poll and, to come later on tonight, the daily YouGov poll for the Sun:

  • Populus had figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs). They continue to produce figures that are more favourable to Labour than many of the other pollsters – you have to go all the way back to August to find a Populus poll with a Conservative lead.
  • In contrast ICM have tended to produce some of the better polls for the Conservatives – their last four polls showed Conservative leads and today’s has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% (tabs)
  • Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, KIP 11%, GRN 7% (tabs) – this is obviously a particularly good poll for the Conservative party, but all the usual caveats apply. No other poll is showing such positive figures for them.

Lord Ashcroft also released four new constituency polls, this time covering four UKIP target seats (or at least, four where he had previously found them doing well, I’m not sure whether Cannock Chase was ever a seat they were targetting – certainly Ashcroft’s poll found respondents reporting a lower level of UKIP activity there). When Ashcroft previously polled these seats he found UKIP in an extremely close second place, this time he found them falling back and seemingly out of serious contention in three of them:

  • Cannock Chase is a seat the Conservatives won on a vast swing last time, but where the new MP has stood down after various gaffes. In October 2014 Ashcroft found UKIP two points behind Labour, 30% to Labour’s 32%. The latest poll still shows Labour ahead, but UKIP now trail in third place on 21%.
  • Great Grimsby is widely regarded as the best opportunity for a UKIP gain from Labour at this election – a Lincolnshire fishing port where the veteran MP Austin Mitchell is standing down. In December Ashcroft found UKIP just a point behind Labour, but they’ve fallen back considerably since then and today’s poll has them 17 points behind Labour
  • Great Yarmouth fits the pattern for a typical UKIP target seat, a seaside town and marginal seat out on England’s east coast. Last July Ashcroft found a tight three way fight – Con 33%, UKIP 31%, Lab 28%. Today’s poll has UKIP falling back to 24%, but Conservative and Labour still in a close battle – Con 36%, Lab 34%
  • Castle Point is the only one of the three where UKIP still seems to be in the race. It’s an unusual seat – the former Conservative MP Bob Spink sort of defected to UKIP in 2008 and contested the seat as an Independent in 2010, coming second with 27%. In February Ashcroft found UKIP just one point behind the Tories, in today’s poll the Conservatives have widened their lead to 5 points.

Finally a new TNS poll of Scotland shows the SNP moving into an even stronger lead. Their topline figures with changes from their last Scottish poll are CON 13%(nc), LAB 22%(-2), LDEM 6%(nc), SNP 54%(+2), UKIP 2%(+1), GRN 2%(-1). Tabs are here.


808 Responses to “A round up of Monday’s polling”

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  1. bramley

    @Ashman
    “Last five GDP figures, 2.7, 2.9, 2.8, 3 and now 2.4?

    The figure you posted are annualised GDP figures whereas @ExileinYork was talking about quarterly GDP.
    ————————————————————————-

    the above are annualised quarterly figures. :-)

  2. The weakest quarterly GDP figures for about 2.5 years!

  3. Not too sure how 0.3% quarterly figure becomes 2.4% when annualised.

  4. Alec

    Osbornomics

  5. Geoff – EU

    “Speaking personally, I would not vote for any party that would give a referendum on the EU. If Labour offered it, that’d mean I’d only have Lib Dem to choose from!”

    As a staunch Ed supporter the lack of a referendum pledge is the one thing I’d strongly disagree with him on. The issue simply isn’t going away and, slightly analogous to the Scottish Indy issue, better sooner than later (particularly given that we’re leaking votes to UKIP).

    If DC somehow scrambles back in there will be a vote (it’s not a red line for Clegg, so there goes your Lib Dem point).

    I personally think a YES vote is more than a red hot favourite

  6. @David Colby
    Then you should know better than to post such drivel!

  7. Alec

    I suspect he meant YoY.

    As for Russell Brand. It does not make a massive amount of difference in the short term, but the future belongs to the party that can speak to the young who are interested in politics but turned off by Westminster. On a matter of principle, I think it was the right move.

  8. I love this kind of post:

    “”IMHO is going to have a MASSIVE effect on the election!!!! Party X are done for!!!!!!!””

    Who needs pollsters?

  9. I’ve updated my UK-Elect forecast to take account of the recent constituency, regional, and national polls. It forecasts separately for Scotland, Wales, London and GB, reconciling the percentages as required and taking into account all sorts of things such as various incumbency effects, the parties actually standing in each seat, etc. etc. It includes detailed forecasts for every U.K. constituency.

    Here it is: April 28 UK-Elect Forecast

  10. The GDP discussion is becoming a bit confused.

    2.4%: the economy is 2.4% larger than it was last year
    0.3%: the economy grew 0.3% during the last quarter

    However the figures will almost certainly be revised upwards, because they contradict most of the business surveys we had during Q1. Remember the initial GDP estimate is based on something like 40% of the total data used, so we are seeing an estimate from a mostly incomplete picture.

  11. David in France

    “I love this kind of post: ”

    Me too – along with “I’ve spoken to some voters. The polls are rubbish, and Party y is only going to get Z seats”.

  12. Carfrew

    Well I spose if Labour offered Independence and Sturgeon was prepared to end Devolution in return for being Deputy PM alongside Cameron…

    You do realise she is not standing as a Westminster MP ?.
    I’ll let you have the same point with Alex Salmond, who is though!!
    (Maybe you don’t need to be an MP to be deputy PM. Lots of strange things happen in Westminster!)

  13. UKELECT

    I see your figures are very close to Lewis Baston’s current projection.

  14. Has the Russell Brand interview even been seen yet?If not surely judgement
    should be reserved until then.

  15. I suppose it’s possible that Brand, being possibly somewhat controversial and provocative, might attract an audience beyond those who would agree with his views and wouldn’t vote.

    But then again, I don’t vote and don’t watch much Brand. Didn’t even know he had a YouTube Channel

    And there’s a thing…

    If Brand has a channel, surely we should??

    AW could chair interviews between Oldnat and Amber, Colin and Paul, Colin and A!ec, Alec and Oldnat, Steve and Neil, Roly and everyone… Classic Match-ups!!!

  16. @ David K

    I find Russell Brand funny as do a lot of people and I like him but when it comes to his politics he’s simply not taken seriously by the vast majority of the voting population. He abuses our democratic system by trying to persuade mainly young people not to bother voting as it’s a waste of time. I have no time for an attitude like that.

    @ David in La France

    A tiny little bit OTT on your part. Assuming you meant my earlier post I never said Labour were doomed but that IMO they will have been damaged by what I consider to be a stupid decision by EM to get involved in anyway with RB.

  17. ASHMAN

    City A.M. has had a lot of discussion (obviously) on the effect of the general election on the city and stocks.

    They have the usual range of concerns. However there is not universal delight at the idea of a Conservative win either because of the promise to hold an EU referendum which is seen as a negative for business and growth. One article was debating whether in fact Labour might not be a better outcome in some ways.

    The most pertinent point is this I feel:

    However, in the last 50 years markets have responded in very different ways to the election of each new government. Margaret Thatcher’s win in 1979 was followed by a fall of 8 per cent in the FTSE All-Share over the ensuing 12 months. But following John Major’s victory in 1992, the market rose 19 per cent.

    “The market’s reaction to an election is unpredictable and it typically triggers a large swing one way or the other,” said Adrian Walker from Old Mutual Wealth.

    and

    “However, in the last 50 years markets have responded in very different ways to the election of each new government. Margaret Thatcher’s win in 1979 was followed by a fall of 8 per cent in the FTSE All-Share over the ensuing 12 months. But following John Major’s victory in 1992, the market rose 19 per cent.

    “The market’s reaction to an election is unpredictable and it typically triggers a large swing one way or the other,” said Adrian Walker from Old Mutual Wealth.

    Interestingly, the most successful post-election periods in the last four decades have been following Labour victories. Tony Blair’s win in 1997 was followed by a rise of over 30 per cent in the FTSE All-Share, while the most successful year for markets was 1974, when Harold Wilson’s arrival at Number 10 was followed by an 88 per cent rise in UK equities.”

    So every election has effect and it is not sure what that effect will be. On a personal level of course every fund manager etc is very concerned at the idea of mansion taxes etc. That is because they are a certain interest group and high earning. In terms of the markets themselves the outcome will be dealt will and there is no automatic car crash scenario should either party win out.

  18. @Omni – “However the figures will almost certainly be revised upwards, because they contradict most of the business surveys we had during Q1. ”

    No no no no! – You haven’t been paying attention!

    How many times have I pointed out that the PMI surveys consistently overstate peaks and troughs?

    Truthfully though, there isn’t that good a relationship between the two.

  19. alec

    Not too sure how 0.3% quarterly figure becomes 2.4% when annualised.
    ———————————————-
    get the last 4 gdp growth per quarter, simple version add them up, more accurate, multiply them by 1.00x, where x is the gdp growth for that quarter, 0.3, .x =3

  20. @Ashman

    “Last five GDP figures, 2.7, 2.9, 2.8, 3 and now 2.4
    If this is creeping towards zero, I need to go back to school. :-)”

    You do, because you’re committing the sin of trying to measure a trend over each quarter using annual totals. The figures are already seasonally adjusted so the focus should be on quarterly figures alone. The change in such annual averages is just a comparison of the current quarter’s figure with that of four quarters’ previously, whereas you should be focusing on what the latest quarter says in itself. And to me, it’s that (a) there has been a downwards shift in the growth figures (which, if it continued as a trend would get us to zero quarterly growth very quickly) and (b) that if the position stabilises at this quarterly rate we will find ourselves back to 1.2% annual GDP growth within a year.

  21. Ann in Wales

    No it hasn’t been aired yet but if we as a society think that politics is for everybody, then EM doing this interview might well ‘reach’ the (presumably) young people who would otherwise not engage with politics at all.

    Anything that engages people with the politics that will affect their lives is a good thing, in my book.

  22. In Peterborough centre today and just loved the large banner type posters that all sides have decorating end terrace walls – very colourful!

  23. Carfrew

    You can host “Storage Wars”.

  24. Bantams

    Without sight of the interview all speculation is premature. I see he has 1m subscribers and 90m views. Probably all deaf ears, but if some decide to vote who wouldn’t have done no harm done at all IMO.

  25. I do find Brand funny but I have never agreed with his advice about not voting. He says it makes no difference but he misses an important point. Pensioners vote in large numbers and politicians are wary of upsetting them. Young people tend to have a lower percentage of voters, politicians are less worried about upsetting them

  26. @BANTAMS

    I find Russell Brand funny as do a lot of people and I like him but when it comes to his politics he’s simply not taken seriously by the vast majority of the voting population. He abuses our democratic system by trying to persuade mainly young people not to bother voting as it’s a waste of time. I have no time for an attitude like that.

    _______________________________________

    Yes, that’s as maybe. But it doesn’t really answer the question posed.

    Personally, I think it’s a strange move rather than damaging. Or maybe Miliband has been advised to reach out to a younger audience and is using a man with a twitter following of almost 10 million to do so?

  27. @Oldnat

    “You can host “Storage Wars”.”

    —————–

    Initially on reading your post I thought “Effin’ ‘ell, he’s right! I could!! It’d be great. Possibilities abound!!”

    Then I remembered no bleeder on here would watch it. (Maybe if I got Brand involved…)

  28. PHIL WHITE
    On Labour not adopting an EU referendum,

    It’s for this reason that I found Ed’s stance on this very surprising,
    whatever his personal beliefs.

    _____________________________________________

    I think while its not popular with those who want a referendum Ed was not just going on ‘personal beliefs’. He is also attempting to reach those in the city and business rather than just the general electorate. His point was that business investment and growth is put at risk by even having a referendum (at least during the period leading up to it).

  29. @alec

    Even allowing for some overstatement, 0.3% is far too low. There was plenty of positive news this quarter. Industrial and construction were weak but that’s not enough to pull it so low.

    Let’s wait for the revisions and then one of us can say “I told you so”

  30. Quarterly GDP since Q1 2014

    2014
    Q1 = 0.8
    Q2 = 0.9
    Q3 = 0.7
    Q4 = 0.5

    2015
    Q1 = 0.3

    I think I can see the beginnings of a trend

  31. catoswyn

    ASHMAN

    The most pertinent point is this I feel:

    However, in the last 50 years markets have responded in very different ways to the election of each new government. Margaret Thatcher’s win in 1979 was followed by a fall of 8 per cent in the FTSE All-Share over the ensuing 12 months. But following John Major’s victory in 1992, the market rose 19 per cent.

    “The market’s reaction to an election is unpredictable and it typically triggers a large swing one way or the other,” said Adrian Walker from Old Mutual Wealth.

    —————————————————————–

    I agree within context, when Margart thatcher won, their was going to be lots of cuts, market reacts accordingly.

    John Major, the market felt that their was a Labour win, they priced that information in, As Conservative won, the market was under-priced, which resulted in correction.

    I wont go any further, I agree in general, with what you are saying, but you have take into consideration how the market is pricing the information.

    Remember when Ed announced few years back, freezing utility bills, how did the market react, utility shares, in particular. If there is a Conservative win, you will see rebound, unless that has already been priced in.

  32. Personally, I find Russell Brand as amusing and appealing as an STI, but I am not his target audience.

  33. Carfrew

    In that case, you had better be a Super Hero.

    Carfrew IS Thorium Man!

  34. Always dangerous doing a Brand interview in that he is just unpredictable and off the wall. So I wait to see. He does have those millions of followers though and to be honest so far Ed has been good on social media things.

    Into the lion’s den?

  35. DAVID K

    I agree that EM meeting RB is a “strange” move above all else – but will it remind voters that EM has been sometimes considered “strange” and perhaps damaging in that respect? Personally, I doubt it but it did make me wonder

  36. We are near the peak in this economic cycle imv,
    at most there is probably another 2 years left.

    Recessions in the post WW2 period occur with alarmingly regularity.

    So in all likelihood the UK will experience another recession
    within the next 5 years, probably within the next 3.

    UKELECT, I really hope that is not what we are facing,
    approx 272 for CON AND LAB tied.

    I wound prefer a Labour government to that outcome,
    and this is from my Tory perspective, that would be a horrendous
    result.

  37. bramley

    Quarterly GDP since Q1 2014

    2014
    Q1 = 0.8
    Q2 = 0.9
    Q3 = 0.7
    Q4 = 0.5

    2015
    Q1 = 0.3

    I think I can see the beginnings of a trend
    ———————————————————————
    Do the above for the previous years, see how your trend analysis come to fruition. Also do the same for Labour from 2002 and 2008, you will discover it means nothing, GDP goes through this kind of process, even in a booming economy we had under Labour. :-)

  38. Catoswyn – Brand

    I’d have done it before the electoral registration period ended as well, you never know he might have converted a few

  39. Ashman
    “do the same for Labour from 2002 and 2008”

    No, I’d sooner go & watch some paint dry :-)

  40. Welsh Borderer

    “I wouldn’t rule out a Grand Coalition as fast as most commentators.”

    Then I hope the SNP MPs choose Alex Salmond as their leader, because it would be very interesting to see him as Leader of the Opposition.

  41. James

    Independent reporting polling by “ORB”, saying the prospect of Lab / SNP alliance makes more people less likely to vote Lab (25%) than those who say it makes them more likely (16%).

    Who are ORB?

    They’re a perfectly respectable pollster:

    http://www.opinion.co.uk/article.php?s=british-public-think-cameron-will-be-next-pm-but-miliband-not-far-behind

    and they’re even members of the BPC. They do very little public polling in the UK and seem mainly to specialise in international polling in terms of what does get released, but I suspect most of their work is private.

    As OldNat said, the main conclusion on a Lab-SNP is that those on the Left tend to be in favour of a Leftish alliance and those on the Right aren’t. It’s also worth looking at the question itself Recently there has been a lot of talk about Ed Miliband and the Labour party potentially doing some sort of deal with the SNP with the aim of forming a minority government. Does the prospect of a potential deal between Labour and the SNP make you …{Much more likely to vote for the Labour party} etc

    16% of Labour voters say they are less likely (5% ‘much less’, 11% ‘somewhat less’)[1] and even this may be gestural[2] rather than actual – think of Anthony’s work on same-sex marriage and how many of those who said it would change their vote didn’t really consider the topic that important.

    But the real thing we need to know is how may people are likely to switch the Conservative to stop a deal with the SNP. The targets of the anti-SNP campaign: UKIP (7% more, 29% less) and the Lib Dems (13% more, 27% less) claim to be turned off by the idea, but may not be moved enough to alter their vote from their current Party.

    [1] 1% of Labour voters say they were “never going to vote Labour” anyway – though they are outweighed by the 5% of Lib Dems, 1% of UKIP and 1% of Greens who were “always going to vote Labour”. If were are being kind this is a demonstration of the SVI/CVI difference.

    [2] 27% of SNP voters say they are more likely to vote for Labour, presumably mostly to support the principle.

  42. bramley

    Ashman
    “do the same for Labour from 2002 and 2008?

    No, I’d sooner go & watch some paint dry :-)

    —————————————-

    I don’t blame you, same here. :-)

  43. RAYFROMTHENORTH

    You’re right. Before the end of registration would have been good.

  44. However one thing that seems to have been missed about the ORB poll is that it contained VI figures as well:

    http://www.opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/omopinion-poll.pdf

    They’re not shown separately, but because the cross-heads show a complete breakdown for all Parties and non-voters, it’s possible to calculate what the figures are:

    Con 32%

    Lab 34%

    Lib Dem 7%

    UKIP 17%

    Green 5%

    SNP 4%

    PC 1%

    Other *%

    The total percentage for WNV/Ref/DK was 21%

    It’s an online nationally representative sample of 2051 adults 22-23rd April 2015 (I suspect taken from a consumer panel). There doesn’t seem to be any political weighting but, as with MORI, the demographic weighting seems very extensive. There doesn’t seem to be any LTV weighting either, though that seems to make little difference in this election..

  45. @Omni – don’t forget poor retail sales and bad foreign trade deficit – these drag GDP figures.

    Equally, the ‘good’ survey data often tends not to be that good, for some reasons I’ve previously speculated on at length.

  46. Roger

    Have you unearthed a poll with Labour leading?

    You are going to be hailed as a messiah by some here.

  47. ASHMAN, Q1 US macro data has disappointed.

    The UK also has to deal with a high value GBP/Euro currently.

    China has slowed markedly, so any global growth is hard to
    find currently, much of the Eurozone is skirting recession.

    If you are an optimist then UK growth accelerates in the latter half
    of 2015.

  48. @ Roger Mexico

    “But the real thing we need to know is how may people are likely to switch the Conservative to stop a deal with the SNP. The targets of the anti-SNP campaign: UKIP (7% more, 29% less) and the Lib Dems (13% more, 27% less) claim to be turned off by the idea, but may not be moved enough to alter their vote from their current Party.”

    This is the key for me to the whole election.

  49. No doubt we’ll be hearing soon from our erstwhile media that Russell Brand has actually written the draft of a Labour budget and we have seven days to save the country!

  50. ORB poll

    So ‘wisdom’ index for next PM is 56-44 Cam, only Scotland thinks EM (and 50:50 N.East). Our scottish friends may need to change their voting intention ……….

    Be interesting to see next ICM ordinary wisdom index

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