There are three GB voting intention polls in tomorrow’s papers – YouGov, Opinium and Survation. Topline figures for all three are below:

  • YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • Opinium/Observer – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
  • Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 33%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs)

376 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Opinium and Survation figures”

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  1. Roger Mexico

    We are obviously looking at different “Facts”. My whole point is that The coalition government are perceived by the voters as way ahead of Labour on economic competence, have been for a long time, and continue to be so. D you disagree with that, or can you show me polling evidence that I’m wrong about that?

  2. ANN IN WALES

    They do it every year at this time. It would look very biased if they didn’t publish it. Personally I cannot see it has any effect on the election at all.

  3. RAF

    That YouGov forecast for 30 LibDem seats seems very high to me. Reckon they will do well to get beyond 20.

  4. In Kellner’s commentary “Latest Forecast: Tories pay the price of an inept campaign”. I thought this was an interesting and probably accurate observation.

    “It’s a measure of the Tories’ failure to maximise their vote that when we ask people who they would support if Boris Johnson led his party, he converts a two-point deficit into a three-point lead.”

    The narrow focus and uninspiring messages of the Tory campaign is just not gathering in voters on the margins of the core vote. In the hypothetical” if Boris was leader” question I am sure the picture forms of a more positive message that fits with his engaging personality in the minds of the respondents.

    While I have no difficulty in persuading myself that these voters are there for the taking if the Tories can make a late in the game transformation to a positive campaign, I struggle to persuade myself that a campaign guided by Crosby and what appears to be a semi-detached Cameron. I am also of the opinion that the negativity is quit firmly fixed in many minds and there may just be too little time to achieve much of an impact even with a concerted effort to switch to positives.

  5. If Ed is ruling out c and s with SNP as he said in the Marr interview that seems to leave Labour with no way to get into government if they end up with fewer seats.

  6. @Crossbat11

    Agree with your Marr analysis 99%
    But Boris really didn’t look like PM material. His eccentric manner would not look good on the international stage.
    Looks like the ED effect in reverse – not up to the job.

  7. More interesting that the Marr interviews was the commentary on the May quote; can see that the Tories need to be careful about turning people off with this sort of chat. Their being too throw away with trying to claim the modern western world will be brought to its knees by the ex-leader of the SNP!

  8. Disagree Mikey re the LDs and I think the real problem with forecasting their seat count is that their votes are very concentrated into certain areas and, as it is rumoured, you would imagine that they are spending all their time campaigning in a small number of seats and largely ignoring others.

    I think they’ll end up in the mid 20s, which is why I think 290 is the big target for Con (so that Con + LD + DUP around 323)

  9. Catoswyn – did he explicitly say that?!?!?

  10. @Catoswyn

    Other than minority government putting its agenda forward and daring ALL other parties to vote it down.

  11. Miserable Old Git (from last night)

    I don’t recall EVER seeing polling on the political importance of the Saxe-Coburg-Gothas, let alone the birth of second children to heirs apparent once removed

    Well as already has been pointed out, the Tories’ friends in the media have spent the last five years confidently predicting that each Royal Wedding, Baby, Jubilee, and for all I know Wardrobe Malfunction would bring the voters flooding back to the Blues in a rush of patriotic fervour. Anything that might take on a similar (English/British) nationalistic tinge, no matter how small, (eg the Olympics) has been treated with the same anticipation.

    The polls managed to remain unmoved on every occasion, now matter how many flags we were commanded to wrap ourselves in.

    However as you’re clearly desperate for news of the public’s feelings on the most important event concerning the Royals[1] ‘since the Abdication’, YouGov has baby polls a-plenty:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0thxn094fz/InternalResults_150417_royal_baby_Website.pdf

    plus the extra questions in today’s ST.

    I always reckon that any question that gets a response of ‘Don’t know / No opinion’ of over 30% should be reworded or not asked. To get 70% or more is a considerable achievement in the indifference stakes[2].

    Actually the most interesting aspect of the exercise was that they asked the same questions simultaneously of a US sample:

    ht tps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c90x6hwer0/Results_Royal%20Baby_US_150417_Website.pdf

    the colonials managed to be almost as enthusiastic about the approaching child as the Brits were. Clearly they have realised all that 1776 business was a terrible mistake and will be begging for reincorporation. Maybe they will compensate for the departure of the Scots.

    [1] If you’re insisting on being so rigorously patrilinear, shouldn’t that be Saxe-Coburg-Gotha-Battenburgs?

    [2] Though I must agree with the public decision that calling a prospective male sprog ‘James’ or ‘Richard’ – presumably after two of the more helpful posters on here. No doubt they thought ‘Old Nat’ a little too unconventional for a royal.

  12. @CATOSWYN

    EM doesn’t need a formal coalition or C&S arrangement with SNP as he knows they will vote against a tory minority under all circumstances and probably vote for him even wit no agreement. Makes it possible for him to sell the “no SNP support” line even though he knows he’ll get implicit support from them.

  13. Catsowyn

    Not necessarily. It will mean that he is challenging the SNP to dare vote against Labour in the Commons knowing that it will trigger a potential no confidence vote in the Labour Govt. The effect could be a second election and a potential Tory Govt which would not go down too well in Scotland. Sturgeon knows this. Miliband knows this. Labour don’t need to do any kind of formal or informal deal with the SNP. It is then up to Sturgeon whether her party wishes to effectively bring down a Labour Govt.

  14. @Catoswyn

    He’s just ruling out a ‘formal’ agreement, even C&S. In practice an ‘understanding’ without any kind of public agreement isn’t too different.

  15. @ Catoswyn

    “If Ed is ruling out c and s with SNP as he said in the Marr interview that seems to leave Labour with no way to get into government if they end up with fewer seats.”

    It is likely to be incorrect. If Cameron is unable to survive a no confidence (or chooses not to put to the vote), according to the rules (both Constitutional practice and the civil service briefing), EM becomes the PM (unless he declines and resigns, in which case NS becomes the PM). Then he would have to pass a legislative programme (and a budget by September). So, if DC can’t carry on EM is the PM.

    MPs would have to vote for or against the new PM.

  16. RUSSELL CENNYDD
    AR558

    But how will he even get the chance to form a minority government If he has fewer seats than Cameron? I’d understood his ‘ace in the hole’ was that even with fewer seats he could command confidence through c and s and thus get the chance to set of to the palace. If he rules out c and s and has less seats then Cameron will form a minority government won’t he?

  17. @Anthony

    Is it partisan to highlight excessively bad headlines from newpapers?

    Surely they too play into polling (they are designed to whip up anger in voters)?

  18. catoswyn

    “If Ed is ruling out c and s with SNP as he said in the Marr interview that seems to leave Labour with no way to get into government if they end up with fewer seats.”

    I didn’t hear the interview, but taking your quote as verbatim, it seems to me that this is further hardening up of a line EM has been taking for some time of no deals with the SNP .

    I have been coming round to the view that Lab plans to call the SNP’s bluff by having no arrangements with them but hope they will (by their own words and long term interests) have to walk into the appropriate lobby (or at worst abstain). The SNP have limited room to move without putting their HR 2016 vote at risk.

  19. We all seem to be assuming that a majority government ( coalition or c+s agreement) is necessary.

    It’s not. A minority government can put forward a populist agenda and then dare the other parties to vote it down.
    If no other party can form a government we get a new election.

    Turkeys voting for christmas?

  20. To quote myself: if EM declines to become the PM after DC fails to muster a majority, according to the Civil Service brief NS would become the prime minister of the UK, even if for a few hours.

    Wonderful country the UK is!

  21. Thanks for all the replies on c and s and Labour. So if I understand you all it seems he may let Cameron form a government and let that government fall and then step into the gap?

  22. ‘CATOSWYN
    If Ed is ruling out c and s with SNP as he said in the Marr interview that seems to leave Labour with no way to get into government if they end up with fewer seats.
    April 26th, 2015 at 11:59 am’

    In normal times yes, but the SNP have said they would not vote down a Labour Government, so he does not need to do a C and S deal. If the SNP did vote down a Labour Government I think they would pay at the 2016 Scottish election.
    The question is will he get enough votes to pass a Queens speech and survive a no confidence motion.
    With the SNP not voting against him and possibly voting for him, regardless of the lack of any deal, I think with the current state of polling that is very likely, especially if the mathematics of it make Labour the only choice for the LibDems
    Of course the polls could all be wrong or could change, but at the moment it can only be a Labour Government

  23. Just watched Milli and and Johnson on Marr on Catch up TV. Agree with others here – Milliband was calm and assured, Johnson blustering and rattled.

  24. @CATOSWYN

    Well i guess DC probably won’t even bother if he can’t get a maj with LD+UKIP/DUP as he knows NS will vote against him in a confidence vote if he attempts minority. Then EM gets a go and NS will vote for him to avoid the Con’s winning a No confidence (Depending on the maths EM may be able to win a confidence with Plaid Cymru +Green?)

  25. The Other Howard

    We are obviously looking at different “Facts”. My whole point is that The coalition government are perceived by the voters as way ahead of Labour on economic competence

    We’re not talking about the same things here. I’m warning about over-interpreting comparatively small changes in a short period, irrespective of whatever the questions are.

    The government has indeed long scored much higher than Labour on some economic questions. There may be queries over what people mean by the ‘economy’ or whether they are seen as ‘way ahead’. It might be that a lot more people just see them as being slightly ahead, but not enough to make much difference.

    Both of these are theories as to why the apparent perception hasn’t been translated into an equivalent lead in votes, given the importance of the economy to people. But like the topic you raised, they’re not really relevant to the point I was making.

  26. @ Catoswyn

    The rule is:

    The current prime minister has the first chance even if his party comes second, then the head of the second largest party, etc. it’s quite simple really. But it is also confused, because only MPs have constitutional entity, parties don’t, yet it is party based. So assuming that the Conservatives get the highest number of seats (I don’t think so), they have the first chance. According to YouGov forecast Labour will have the second call. If we can believe the polls, the SNP would have vote him down (by voting against or abstaining). EM doesn’t have to show that he has the SNP support to become the PM.

    Of course, then politics will start.

  27. It is new that EM has ruled out C&S with SNP.

  28. Charts updated folks. Due to people pinching my charts and not giving me a shred of credit, I spent an hour adding watermarks to em all, so if you see them, you know why.

  29. EXILEINYORKS

    Whilst I happen to agree with much that Kellner writes in his piece, I think you should look at what the voters think in the latest YouGov poll. The Tories campaign is seen as more negative than Labour by 20 to 12, but interestingly they are also seen as more positive than labour by 19 to 15. Both campaigns are seen as uninspiring by the Public.

  30. If Labour end up with say 270 seats and dont have any formal agreement, coalition of C&S, I dont see how it could viably govern.

    If they needed to pass something, queen’s speech or other bill, then they would need more or less full support of SNP. If just say 10 of the c.50 SNP MPs abstained then Con+LD would defeat them. Any voting against and Labour would be toast given those would effectively count double. EM and Labour would be held to ransom constantly.

    The economic effects of having such a weak government like this would be horrific. £ would remain very low and interest rates will go up…..which then would put more pressure on EM as reducing the deficit would become even harder. God help us if had a recession (and given history says you get one every 7-10 years then the next parliament has a very good chance of encountering one).

    I simply dont see how any government, whether Con or Lab led, could govern without clear indication of how they get to (or close to) a majority.

    Said it before and will say it again, I think DC will try to bung a pile of powers to Scotland alongside EVEL and therefore try to get SNP to pass this. Most people get what they want – the 45% of scots who wanted independence plus the portion of 55% who would have preferred devo-max will love what Sturgeon has got them, whilst DC will be able to govern from a strong position

  31. LASZLO

    Thanks.

  32. Roger Mexico: I’d like to know more about the mindset of the 3% who didn’t know whether they were interested or not in the royal baby. That is frankly awe-inspiring bet-hedging.

  33. @catsowyn

    It’s simple.
    If DC’s Tories are the biggest party the get a chance to present their agenda. If it’s voted down, it’s ED’s turn.
    If that agenda is voted down, new elections

  34. Ed M seems to be playing hardball with the snp and the libdems -we will publish our queens speech ,up to you how you vote.

    English voters will like that methinks.

  35. TOH,
    With respect I was not suggesting it would alter VI,I doubt anything will!However it does link into the perception of the very rich doing very nicely,
    and underlines what some perceive as a growing sense of inequality .

  36. “Ed M seems to be playing hardball with the snp and the libdems -we will publish our queens speech ,up to you how you vote.”

    This is the best way because pacts are very difficult for parties, and tend to harm their support.

  37. Rich

    Clegg has said that a 2nd placed.party leading Government is illegitimate ‘

    I wonder how he reconciles that with Asquith relying on Irish Nationalists from 1910 and Gladstone doing likewise in 1892. Interesting that no interviewer has tried to put him on the spot over that!

  38. A minority labour government could the go to the country on populist policies leaving the SNP and other left-alliance parties in the lurch

  39. @TOH

    “Roger mexico. From your lack of response i assume you agree with my last post on economic competence.”

    Although RM often does respond if he disagrees, don’t assume that anyone who doesn’t respond to a post must always agree with it.

    There are some here who notoriously stick to their views like limpets and also always respond, such that it becomes a choice between accepting their views or eventually ignoring them.

  40. @ AdamB

    I think it was a highly partisan post, but anyway. Do you think the coalition government operated in a different way?

    Actually, the rainbow (informal) coalition would be very stable (I can’t comment on their efficiency or effectiveness) would be very stable because none of the constituents would have an interest breaking it.

    DC can’t offer EVEL without a major constitutional change which would a be a highly unstable, unpredictable process (as long as EVEL is the goal – I think there is a need of constitutional rethink though).

    Sometime this week the FT had a review of views of the financial sector and it suggested that a minority Labour government is priced in.

    While recessions do have a tendency of coming in every 8-10 years, there was no recession in the UK between 1992-2008 (but there were more than enough between 1974-1984) – there was one in 2001, but it was not officially recognised. I think the two governments managed the recession of 2008-2012 pretty well if I compare it to the 1991-92.

  41. Good Afternoon All.
    MIKEY and RAF. I agree with you (plural) that the Lib Dem seat numbers look a little high.

    RUSSELLCYNNDD
    I think you are right about how the rules for government formation, and if necessary the parties would vote for repeal of the Fixed Term Act.

    SUNREADA.
    Hello to you, just realised the excellent name. Maybe Ed M is trying to rebut/close down the SNP danger line, which is probably having some impact with ‘blue-minded’ Lib Dems and UKIP-tending voters.

    Ed Miliband maybe growing in stature; the boy becoming the man, in the manner of his Dad.

  42. ANN IN WALES

    I agree with that, but many of the rich will always do nicely no matter what government. They did very well under Blair & Browns Labour and they have done well under the coalition. If EM gets into power then I confidently predict that they will still mostly do very nicely, although many may move elsewhere for the duration.

    Not always and not all though, there were plenty of suicides in the 30’s for example.

  43. Sorry!
    My previous post was partisan . Mea culpa…. Mea maxima culpa!

  44. Lazlo

    “Sometime this week the FT had a review of views of the financial sector and it suggested that a minority Labour government is priced in.”

    I would be amazed if the markets had not done that with the election apparently so close. Although I think the Tories will scrape in I have taken certain measures which will minimise my exposure to a Labour Government if it happens.

    It’s just being prudent.

  45. EM doesn’t need any formal supply & demand deal with the SNP.

    If the SNP vote down a Labour Queen’s Speech the gov will fall and either the Conservatives become the Gov. or there wil be another GE.

    Either way the voters of Scotland won’t forgive the SNP for letting a Tory govt in ‘by the back door’

    Labour actually have the upper hand.

  46. Clegg’s view seems all the more odd coming from someone who is opposed to FPTP and in favour of proportional representation. If, say the Tories, UKIP and DUP put together got less votes than left of centre parties put together, wouldn’t that mean that the left of centre grouping should have more legitimacy, even if Labour on its own had less votes than the Conservatives? Because that’s how it would work out under PR.

  47. Laszlo

    It wasnt written as a partisan post and re-reading it, I dont think it was. As I said, I dont think Con or Lab can govern without some sort of agreement, whether Coalation of C&S, in place which gives them a majrotiy or very close to it. I think the economic impact would be horrendous.

    The reason I referenced it to Lab was because of hte discussion about Lab going it alone without any form of agreement in place with the SNP and on the back of EM’s comments on that.

    I also dont think it really applies to Con because they would do a deal with LDs and, assuming Clegg is still in place and can convince his party of the merits, the LDs would do a deal with them. Therefore I dont think that a say 290 seat Con minority government without any support from others would ever happen because of this. But, on the back of this morning’s comments, Labour it seems would consider this.

    Adam

  48. Does Boris have the patience for 5 years in opposition? He’s not shown it so far.

  49. Telegraph Wisdom Index:

    Con 32
    Lab 32
    LD 14
    Ukip 12

  50. TOH
    ‘Agreed, that’s what Governments have to do we when faced with an economic situation like that facing the UK in 2010.’
    When Macmillan informed the nation that ‘it had never had it so good’ the Debt/GDP ratio was 105%. He did not pursue Austerity – a policy abandoned 5 years earlier when the same ratio was well over 200%. Why do we need it today when the Debt/GDP ratio is circa 80%?

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