There are three GB voting intention polls in tomorrow’s papers – YouGov, Opinium and Survation. Topline figures for all three are below:

  • YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • Opinium/Observer – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
  • Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 33%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs)

376 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Opinium and Survation figures”

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  1. NeilJ
    It’s a line which seems to have traction with voters and helped the Tories move the campaign from Labour having the momentum to being equal. I was surprised with the survation finding of around 40% of LD and UKIP voters would consider voting Tory to stop a lab SNP deal but that fact one justifies continuing with it, albeit perhaps not solely.

    I would now say the Tories are edging it and the sloooow movement in the polls is continuing. Maybe Labour peaked too early in the campaign?
    Adam

  2. David K

    “I’m not sure I see any great advantage on the issue from that data.”

    From YouGov – Do you think the coalition is managing the economy well or badly?

    Total well Last week 48 This week 49
    Total badly Last week 43 This week 40
    Net Last week +5 This week + 9

    To me this is a significant improvement. I agree there has been no change when one looks at the effect on the individual voter. However IMO who is considered most capable to run the economy is likely to swing the election.

  3. @web – wish I read your response first before posting that

  4. Andrew Marr’s programme was a Corker!

    Boris vs Ed.

    Ed relaxed yet forcefull. Boris floundering.

    On points to Ed.

    VERY good Ed interview. Boris interview …….

  5. BILL

    I have been polled once in the last five weeks and twice in the early months of the year. Is YouGov’s selection from the restricted pool chosen randomly?

  6. The most interesting thing was how relaxed yet focussed Ed came over.

  7. @ Lmz

    A clear split in the polls now:
    Yougov/populus/panelbase all showing regular 2/3 point labour leads. Ashcroft / ICM / Opinium / Survation All showing regular tory leads. TNS/Iposmori a little more split. Survation/Panelbase high ukip scores.

    Its just now whos going to be correct with their polls.

    —-

    Now there’s a quandary if you like.

    If some of the pollsters are ‘wrong’, why not all of them?

    If, on the other hand, none of the pollsters are ‘wrong’, how to explain those discrepancies?

    I expect that the answer is none of them are ‘wrong’. And that the actual figures – at this point in time – are roughly in the middle ground. Calculate the mean, and there you have it.

    Which, of course, isn’t good news for LAB or CON :-

    Because LAB are (currently) falling short of capturing more than about 40 seats. (And losing 30 to the SNP). So a net gain of just about 10 or 15 seats.

    And CON look (currently) set to finish down in the 280s or 290s. Yet have few friends to turn to in order to form government.

  8. Did anyone else think miliband absolutely nailed that interview and trounced boris? He seems a changed man!

  9. I’m normally a great fan of Prof Curtice, but he has confused me today, with different numbers in different places.

    On the ScotCen site “What Scotland Thinks” he gives the VI (and seats) as

    SNP – 49% (54) : Lab 25% (4) : Con 16% (0) : LD 5% (1)

    While in the Scotsman he says –

    SNP – 44% (47) : Lab 25% (8) : Con 15% (1) : LD 9% (3)

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/poll-of-polls-westminster-vote-intentions-23-april/

    His “poll of polls” seems to be a somewhat flexible commodity!

  10. Tony
    I think YG invite a v large number of their panel and whoever are the first to click accept get the Poll survey. One the balancing quotas for the survey have been filled, later clickers accepting the link in the a go to other surveys. So it should be the case that you are part of the January email recipients but not necessarily part of the fin sample. Because YG has all its panel’s details, it’s not as random as say a phone poll

  11. Interesting Yougov analysis; fits what most on here have been saying regarding the Tory strategy. Ed clearly not had a great few days, not negative but needs to get out and make a bigger impact day to day to continue rallying his ratings.

    Out of interest has any of the polling tsrgrtting UKIP questioned on the local campaign. I feel that no matter what the Tories do on the right they are not really gaining many back. I think questions like ‘would you vote tactically to stop a Labour/SNP’ are undermined by the people saying yes clearly not intrndibg to vote tactically at the moment!

    Interesting to hear so much movement between he main parties; I think this gives Labour an advantage due to their ground operation and also two trumps; coming from a weaker position with their leader and the Tories error in moving right after UKIP.

    If all the above has an effect we should see Labour gaining a wee bit more by the end of this week but difficult to identify with MOE stuff. Would be interesting to see polling on people having been contacted by local supporters (feel this has not been asked outside Scotland?).

  12. @Dan

    Exactly! I’m seldom impressed by politicians, today was a rare exception.

  13. TERRYP

    Gove is an adopted son of working class parents from Aberdeen. What is “posh” about that?

  14. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Point taken on the (growing) gap between ‘total bad’ and ‘total good’ (though it is a bit ‘soft’ when you factor in those with very firm views on the issue: ‘very bad’ outstripping those who think ‘very good’ by 2:1 – people you’d expect this issue to be of primary importance to at the ballot).

    The overall point I’d make is that I can see why the coalition parties have been using negative tactics away from the issue of the economy as it doesn’t look like an issue they have a firm grip of…which does surprise me to be honest.

  15. @ rich

    What austerity? There hasn’t been any. That’s probably the greatest triumph of the left pushing this message.

    —-

    Yes there has been.

    Here’s a few examples. From Conservative run Shropshire county council.

    Trading Standards officers in that county have been cut from around 20 or so at the time of the 2010 GE to just 2 now. (Two? To cover the whole county?)

    County hall sold off (to be redeveloped into flats or offices).
    And council staff told to work from home instead.

    Sick pay cut from six months to six weeks.

    etc..

    Now I’m not saying that those things are right or wrong or that they are specific to a Conservative run council. But they are signs of cut-backs in the public purse. They are ‘austerity’ cuts.

  16. Or to be clear Tony the initial pool is the same but the final sample is random within it and then weighted as well
    Apologies for typos

  17. Rich, Smithy
    And what does the polling say about austerity, it’s support and it’s perceived effects?

    That’s the only important thing in the run up to the election.

  18. Rich

    You wont find a pro labour post on my history ive made about 3 neutral comments and only one long one explaining why plaid dont do as well as the snp due to traditions, geography and the language issue. I live in wales and am of the left but started this election prepared to consider the merits of 4 parties in my marginal constituency cardiff central. The last time i saw ed m on andrew marr i thought he was dreadful.

  19. @Smithy

    I can’t imagine what you would be thinking about the “slow” recovery in GB should you be living in Socialist France right now. They’ve done fantastically well there in comparison to us.

  20. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Apologies on last response: I was looking at the next Q. down on yougovs tabs.

    Brain freeze I expect. ;-)

  21. Talking of perceived bias’ in various polling organisations, whether for or against any party, I tend to accept them all. Any such bias’ will come out in the wash when they are averaged out.

  22. And CON look (currently) set to finish down in the 280s or 290s. Yet have few friends to turn to in order to form government.

    still quite optimistic. Even Kellner the “295 seat for the tories” man now has them on 278.

  23. We have relative austerity is the fairest way to put it. But with free health, housing, police, benefits and subsidised housing, it is.not horn.of Africa.poverty.or.Greek.austerity.

  24. @NeilJ

    Tend to agree, the only real anomaly for me is UKIP. If they actually poll at the top end I think Labour will win but if it’s actually at the bottom end I think the Tories will win.

  25. Tony Cornwall @ TERRYP

    “Gove is an adopted son of working class parents from Aberdeen. What is “posh” about that?”

    “Working class” may not be the best description for a family where Mum was a lab assistant at Aberdeen University, and Dad owned a fish processing plant.

    Neither voting Labour, nor speaking Scots at home, makes you working class in Aberdeen.

  26. NeilJ

    Not necessarily.

    I don’t think of it as bias. I think that methodology affects accuracy and some of the polls are likely to be more accurate (as they can’t all be true if the spread of averages is so wide).

    Problem is we don’t know what methodology is most appropriate, so the ones with incorrect or less accurate methodology are lumped in with those that aren’t innacurate, potentially skewing the average slightly one way (and for balance, I’m not saying which way – I don’t know). In a close election a small variance could make all the difference.

    I think from a polling perspective the differences between companies results must be fascinating to those companies and I’m sure they’ll be analysing the result with a lot of interest.

    One example is phone polling vs online polling. Is one inherently more accurate than the other at gauging opinion / support for some parties and why would that be?

    Then there are the issues of turnout / weighting / previous voting behaviour that are all dealt with slightly differently by polling organisations.

  27. So much confidence on both sides from partisan posters!

    I’m with LMZ on this one- 10 days out and you really would have expected most of the pollsters to be showing similar fluctuations but no sign that methodology differences are being ironed out as people make up their minds.

    What seems to be clear is that the average of the polls haven’t moved at all during the campaign. That makes me very unsure of the outcome because the YouGov/Populus/Panelbase block and the ICM/Survation/Comres/Ashcroft block are predicting very different outcomes to the election (only because it is so close).

    I honestly haven’t a clue about the possible outcome and unless one of the two blocks of pollsters start heading towards the other block then I can only assume that one block will be proved “right” on the day and the other block “wrong”.

    I wouldn’t blame either set for getting it wrong- there are too many unknowns and at the margins it is just guesswork rather than scientific.

  28. David K

    “which does surprise me to be honest.”

    I think you will find the Tories will be talking about the Economy all this week.

  29. YG FORECAST seats:

    Con 278 (-1)
    Lab 271 (-1)
    LD 30 (+3)
    SNP 46 (-)
    Ukip 3 (-)
    Green 1
    Others 21

    FORECAST GE vote shares:

    Con 34
    Lab 33
    Ukip 12
    LD 11
    SNP 5
    Green 4
    Others 1

  30. BANTAMS

    Yes, the alternative economic approach has played out really well for the French.

    :-)

  31. So if Lab + Snp.and con + libs doesn’t equal.a majority, where does that leave us? Voted down.speech and second election?

  32. The Other Howard

    From YouGov – Do you think the coalition is managing the economy well or badly?

    Total well Last week 48 This week 49
    Total badly Last week 43 This week 40
    Net Last week +5 This week + 9

    To me this is a significant improvement.

    No it isn’t because the two things are obviously not independent of each other. It’s only a nett 2% of the sample changing their minds in effect which is within the margin of error – just as the decrease in the percentage of those who think the economy is going well is insignificant.

    The best way to look at these things is by following them in one of YouGov’s tracker files:

    https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?year=&month=&category=political-trackers

    the movement in any one week or fortnight is usually insignificant, it’s the cumulative effect over months that needs to be followed and is important.

  33. As to France.

    It has been more or less in recession since the 1980s. It is in a dire structural mess.

    And that has been the case under governments of both left and right persuasion.

    Tribalists might not like that answer though because it doesnt fit with their tedious narrative that one side or the other is ‘the best’.

  34. There was some discussion a few pages back about Boris Johnson as a potential PM. I don’t really see the public voting for that. His bumbling maverick act is effective in Mayoral races (and I bet he’d have no trouble in a presidential or semi-presidential system) but I don’t think people see him as ‘serious’ enough.

  35. David in France

    “They are ‘austerity’ cuts.”

    Agreed, that’s what Governments have to do we when faced with an economic situation like that facing the UK in 2010.

  36. Murnaghan to NC (paraphrased)

    “After characterising Conservatives and Labour as Wizard of Oz characters Tinman and the Scarecow, which are you, a lion without courage or Dorothy who turned out to be in some kind of hallucenogenic dream?”

    The quality of debate in this country just keeps improving.

  37. Roger Mexico

    You have your view, I have mine, I certainly disagree with your last post.

    However I assume you would agree that the coaltion parties do have a significant lead on the question of economic competence compared to Labour. I cannot remember any poll which asked this type of question and did not give that answer.

  38. @david in France – apologises you’re right, well at least this morning – I will try harder not to bite

  39. Neil J
    Averaging out may not lead us to the real positions, which may be outside all the pollsters current positions. It is unlikely, but not impossible.

    It will be interesting to see whether phone or online polls come out better when we get the results, along with squeeze questions, reallocation of DK and the level of LTV.

  40. DAVID IN FRANCE

    Personally I agree with your view of the French economy. Tribalism has nothing to do with it as far as I can see.

  41. @Cloudspotter

    We may never know whether online or phone polls are most accurate at this moment, or how the other factors that you mentioned affect accuracy.

    If there is a last-minute swing, whether picked up in the polls or not, it could confuse the picture. (Some voters may even change their vote because of the final predicted results!) And, of course, whichever pollster is generally being most accurate may be unlucky with their final poll, being at the limit of the margin of error.

  42. Bill

    I have been polled 4 times by YouGov in 5 weeks. Given that the YouGov chat board is overwhelmingly one sided it is likely that if those same posters have been polled at the same rate as I have then this could relate to an inbuilt bias in the resulting polls.

    The YouGov chat board is probably only used to comment with by a tiny, tiny proportion of their panellists and you don’t even have to be a YouGov panel member to post on it. Most panellists will not even read it and may not even realise it is there – it’s separate from the polling side of things.

    So like most loosely-regulated chatboards it ends up being dominated by more extreme views and prone to endless partisan sniping. It says nothing about how the polling operates.

    As to being asked a number of times, a lot of this could be simple chance, though it could be that you fit a particular profile that they find it difficult to get enough in the sample – under 25s C2DE males for example. But it will also be because they are doing many more surveys at the moment – not just seven days a week, but the extra 5,000 short ones a day they use for the Nowcast.

  43. @ David in France

    As to France.
    It has been more or less in recession since the 1980s. It is in a dire structural mess.
    And that has been the case under governments of both left and right persuasion.
    Tribalists might not like that answer though because it doesnt fit with their tedious narrative that one side or the other is ‘the best’.

    It is a bit exaggerated, but the central point of the strucural mess is correct. And the guilt on both the right and left too.

    I haven’t seen many economies that have been so unresponsive to government measures (from the national champions onward), and many governments that knowing the structural problems (and they have known it, cf. the large spending increase on vocational training in the mid-2000s for example), make little attempt to tackle it.

  44. @AW

    Apologies for provoking you into a snip earlier.

    I accept that you do not want a debate here about whether there is […] substance to the Conservative claims about “Labour-SNP” and all that, as opposed to the polling consequences.

    What is probably the Conservatives’ final national mailshot is now hitting doorsteps in this English Con-Lab marginal constituency. An A5 personally addressed flyer from Cameron that manages to mention the SNP three times, more than the two for Labour. And Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon between them get as many mentions as Ed Miliband.

  45. It seems odd that a Tory supporting newspaper such as the Times has chosen
    today to publish the rich list.Rather throwing petrol on the flames of the rich and the others argument I would have thought.
    EdMs weakness used to be interviews,not anymore according to the political
    commentariat today.

  46. @Rich

    “Lot.of.people.fawning over EM on TV today. I feel preaching to the converted checking post history…”

    Remember, you have a post history of your own too. As Anthony often says; Mote and beam, old boy, mote and beam..

    :-)

    I won’t get into the Marr programme analysis in terms of whose dog came out on top in the fight, yours or mine, but, as a keen observer of body language, I thought there were some classic and revealing displays on show from both Johnson and Miliband. I thought Johnson looked quite comfortable in his interview with Marr, the carefully tousled hair in place, slightly blokeish posture, leaning back in the chair with the legs spread in classic Alan Shearer style, and lots of coy smiles and knowing grins. Classic Johnson in other words. You either like it or you don’t, but it was Johnson on vintage form. Then the sofa discussion with Miliband. Was this a different person? It was extraordinary. Awkward and uncomfortable, he shifted his posture continually and his eloquence and wit appeared to desert him at the same time as his body language launched inner distress signals. He didn’t like it all and it looked like the proximity to Miliband spooked him.

    As for Miliband, well, he’s a marmite man really; I guess you either like him or you don’t, but can anybody now dispute that this is a politician growing in confidence and self-assuredness the longer that this campaign goes on? People may dislike both the man and his politics but they can’t laugh at him any longer. Ridicule is the killer in politics and Miliband is escaping it.

  47. The Other Howard

    You have your view, I have mine, I certainly disagree with your last post.

    It’s not my ‘view’, it’s simple matter of fact. These one or two point movements don’t matter on their own. They may indeed add up to something over time, but you need to look at the longer view for that.

  48. James

    YouGov now have a “lost Lib Dems” category. Not sure in what period it means they were lost; the number is greater than the difference between their 2010 vote and VI now.

    Yes, but the current Lib Dem vote will include some people who didn’t vote for them in 2010. If you take the 2010 number (462) take off the 16% NVs and then apply the 27% who still say they will vote Lib Dem, you get to the 355 ‘lost’ ones (allowing for rounding).

  49. Shy voters -the bane of a pollsters life.

    Smithson on shy kippers on the phone

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/26/could-shy-kippers-become-a-problem-for-pollsters-like-shy-tories-in-the-90s-was/

    Shy labour in scotland ?Prob not as the 45 seems solid.

    Still shy tories in england or just shy dont knows ?

  50. The second part of the article has a nice graph on the approval of the government’s approval rating on the economy.

    A few nuances: 1) it’s the governments’ approval rating, this LiBDems are included; 2) it has to be converted to votes; 3) if the UK is highly stratified and (not independently) has an uneven distribution of economic effects on voters then, the approval rate as a resultant of individual opinions may hide massive geographic and strucural differences, so it may not have very little effect on VI.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/26/tories-pay-price-inept-campaign/

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