There are three GB voting intention polls in tomorrow’s papers – YouGov, Opinium and Survation. Topline figures for all three are below:

  • YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • Opinium/Observer – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
  • Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 33%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs)

376 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Opinium and Survation figures”

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  1. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Dear oh dear. What’s this talk of the Tories wining 50% more seats in Scotland? There ain’t a hope in hell the Tories will win two seats in Scotland. Not even they silly borders unite in daft itchy tweed could deliver the Tories another seat.

    I dont know that you can gain half a seat in a general election and I hate to be the math geek here but to double your number of seats means an increase of 100 percent. Tories can win a three-way-race in Berwerkshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, same thing in Dumfries and Galloway and a head to head race against the SNP in Dumfriesshire, Clydestale and Tweeddale. Therefore the Conservatives are having three shots so far, two out of three looks doable.

  2. @Candy

    Perceptions are important; but one does have to be careful when asserting that they speak for everyone when they state their own perceptions/prejudices.

  3. From the Guardian talking to voters in Exeter about the SNP.

    ‘His friend Charlotte Haning points out that Salmond is no longer the leader of the SNP. “I like Nicola Sturgeon,” she says. “I’m voting Conservative and I think they will win, but I’d like to see David Cameron working with her. She might perhaps persuade him to look at Scotland and tuition fees.”

    Aw. Bless.

  4. Re @ OLDNAT “Latest @Panelbase poll finds 49% back independence and 51% are opposed.”

    From the psephology, is it possible to identify whether, as I suspect, Lab lose VI in Scotland because of an in-built Yes/NO factor in the structure and titling of LIS and its electoral opposition to SNP. The GE is not to do with union and separation but LIS are tagged with being the unionist party.
    I suspect Lab would be doing better in Scotland if it was simply the “mainland” Lab party fighting SNP on their mainly common social and economic policies. Would devo-max and GB’s arguments for it as a clear alternative to fiscal, social and economic, and defense, policiesand their alternative benefits then be more clearly the basis of the electoral contest?

  5. A couple of days ago there was speculation Miliband had made a blunder by bringing up Libya and the lack of planning. When the polls showed no signs of movement, it was said to be too early to tell and yesterday would show movement. However you look at the polls from there is still no movement. Okay two of the three polls showed a slight move to Labour and one stayed the same, but all within MOE.
    Will ‘Villagate’ have an effect on todays polls, I personally doubt it.
    But I will repeat what I said yesterday everyday there is no movement is a good day for Labour.

    On other news a win for Wolves yesterday, I feel for Wigan, a tough hard fought game. Think it may still be too late for Wolves chance of promotion, relying on other teams to lose in the last game is never likely to end well
    Also saw the consumate entertainer Robbie Williams in Concert last night, what a star – brilliant.

  6. YouGov now have a “lost Lib Dems” category. Not sure in what period it means they were lost; the number is greater than the difference between their 2010 vote and VI now. Although the biggest chunk is to Labour (45%), they are going here, there and everywhere. Quite impressive, really.

    Not that it matters a hill of beans, but they also ask who do you think has run the best campaign (regardless of party support)?

    SNP 25
    Lab 16
    Con 15
    UKIP 10
    Don’t know 28
    (everyone else <2)

    Which party leader do you think is most capable?

    Cameron 33 (remarkable Tory loyalty)
    Sturgeon 17
    Miliband 15
    None of them 13
    Don't know 11
    Farage 7 (only 45% of kippers, hmm…)
    Clegg 4

    Yet further questions imply that the Tories would be doing slightly better with Boris as leader (3 point lead instead of 2 point deficit). Mostly from third party supporters (remaining Lib Dems and Kippers).

    Only Scots seem to be mostly aware that Sturgeon is not an MP candidate.

  7. Good Early Morning everyone; cloudy here as AFC Bournemouth prepare for tomorrow’s promotion match against Bolton Wanderers and as the polls remain close, with I sense, the Tories really ahead by about 1.75% in the popular vote, so heading for a lead in seats, but clearly not a majority government, and with a ‘centre-left’ majority alliance of some kind in the ‘offing’.

  8. No real move in YouGov approval figures this week:
    Cameron -1 (-1)
    Miliband -17 (+1)
    Clegg -32 (+4)
    Farage +7 (+1)

    There’s a Boris VI question (although it’s not completely comparable to the main VI question because the leaders are named):
    Con 35 (+3)
    Lab 32 (-2)
    Lib 10 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (-1)

    Asked about whether they’re tactically voting or voting for their actual choice (D/Ks removed):
    86% First choice
    14% Tactical voter

    And at the end some ridiculous royal baby questions like this gem:
    “Which do you believe would be better for the Royal family, a girl or a boy?”
    71% said No Difference or Don’t Know/No opinion

  9. This election is on a knife’s edge. I know I don’t have much substance to add at this point (not been following closely, up to my eyeballs in work) but I’m looking forward to the election. Less than 2 weeks to go right?

  10. @Andy S

    Good morning.

    Did you see my post last night asking about the rolling average data you wrote about?

    @Andy S

    How many polls are averaged to get your rolling average?

    If there have been 17 polls, do you take the last X polls to get the average?

    Do you weight them in any way?

    Many thanks in advance.

  11. With the polls basically showing a dead heat, I think this really will boil down to boots on the ground and who can do the better job of getting the vote out on the day.

    P.S.: in the past, this has been Axelrod’s speciality!

  12. There’s an interesting piece by Tim Stanley in the Telegraph about the Tory campaign (and by extension, both Labour and LibDem campaign), over the SNP –
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11562392/No-one-is-running-a-truly-national-campaign.-The-Union-is-being-left-to-perish.html

    The interesting bit is about Ted Heath:
    “Conservatives were not always so quick to exploit contemporary social divisions. Consider this example from history. When Edward Heath called a general election in February 1974, the country was gripped by a miner’s strike and shivering in power cuts. It was Heath’s chance to defang the Left by framing the contest around the question of “who governs” – a democratically elected PM or a militant union? But, to everyone’s surprise, he began the fight with a surrender. He turned the lights back on, which undid the sense of national emergency, and said that he would do a deal with the miners if he won the vote. Unsurprisingly, he lost.

    For many years, historians have debated why Heath acted in such a peculiar manner. In his new memoirs, William Waldegrave, then the PM’s secretary, offers a compelling explanation. Heath knew that he could have rallied a furious middle-class against the working-class miners, divided the electorate in two and won with the support of the larger half. But he refused. A man who had led soldiers in the Second World War believed so strongly in Britain as “One Nation” that he found the idea of stoking class war to be abhorrent. What he was seeking in 1974 was not a mandate to break the miners but to negotiate with them fairly and from strength. In short, for all his faults Heath had a profound, almost painful commitment to the pursuit of national unity. In a sense, he crucified himself upon it.”

    You could argue that Ramsay MacDonald made the same electoral mistake when he joined the National government, in the interest of national unity.

    For Labour, it’s a slightly “worse” position in the long-run, because they’re risking not only a political split between England and Scotland but another political split on the left.
    Whereas the Conservatives have little political overlap with the SNP, and have largely already abandoned Scotland, Labour voters and SNP voters have ideological overlap.
    So by driving a nationalist/unionist wedge, for partisan gain, between those voters you prevent a potential long-term alliance.

    Conservatives have a similar problem with UKIP, but to a far lesser extent – rather than building bridges with ideological allies, they’re far happier to rubbish them in the name of partisan politics.

  13. @ ChrisLane

    Morning to you. The Cherries have two bites of the cherry for a place in the Premier League I believe.

    Meanwhile in League One we have a number of marginal seats who could be involved in the play offs on election night. Swindon North and South will be away on May 7th, Sheffield Hallam will be playing at home and there is a tight battle to see whether safe Labour Preston North End will be automatically promoted, leaving Marginal Milton Keynes Dons South and North slugging it out with an away match at safe Labour Chesterfield or marginal Sheffield Hallam.

  14. So if one person has been polled 7 times are the frequent pollsters churning the same base to get to 1,000 a day and as a consequence producing the same results?

  15. @Andy Shadrack

    Thanks for your reply to Candy. Normally I don’t bother because the posts are not on polling. If I wanted prejudiced nonsense I would buy the Daily Mail.

    On polling I am beginning to think re-interviewing January respondents in YouGov is keeping the Labour vote too high. Looking at the Scottish crossbreaks Labour is exactly same as January whereas in the full Scottish polls they have fallen back. Have YouGov used this re-interviewing technique before? Do they know it works? If it doesn’t work then if we exclude YouGov Tories are ahead.

  16. @Anthony – any chance of freeing the ‘On This Day in 2010’ post from 10.57pm last night?

    Ta.

  17. @AdamB

    Many of the posts have been considerably ‘off-piste’.

    May I politely suggest calling another party leader a silly nickname just throws petrol on that particular bonfire?

  18. @Neil

    Polls will not move over any one thing (Libya comment whilst unfair gave Ed some coverage compared to the days of Tory SNP chatter) but overall feelings on the parties.

    Which is why I think the Tories singing for the right just now is a big mistake and the Villa comment will likely have affected confidence in the Tory camps. Their one positive is that Labour have not managed to pull ahead which I think suggests the economy is in a goof place for some who don’t want the Labour way in case it changes their own situation.

    ——-

    Scotland polls. I remember conversations on here during the Scottish Labour leader race that Murphy was expected to turn things around and if not then he had quite frankly failed. Well its clear he has. He stepped into a job he clearly thought had been held by incompetents previously, after months of campaigning he learnt the lesson everyone else knew – every Labour leader had struggled to balance local politics with the wider party strategy. That alone has sunk his campaign, meanwhile the comments on the SNP and Tories is like stepping into a time machine, after two SNP governments you would think they might realise it does not work.

    And recently? I’ve seen very little of him or the party since the Shadow Business Sec left his arguments in tatters except for comments on other parties from time to time, but he’s hardly tried to sell Labour policy to Scots.

  19. Kellner on “inept Tory campaign”

    Our findings also suggest that this week Conservatives have backfired in their charge that a Labour would rely on the SNP. At the peak of the row, on Tuesday and Wednesday, almost three million people cited this as a reason to feel negative about Labour – but it made far more, almost five million, feel more negative about the Tories. By yesterday [Friday], both figure were down, but the Tory negative mentions, 3.3m, still massively outnumbered the 1.4m who gave it as a reason to think negatively about Labour.

    YouGov’s latest survey for the Sunday Times helps to explain why both parties are at the low end of their recent levels of support. Neither Cameron nor Ed Miliband is regarded as particularly honest, even by their own supporters. When voters are presented with a list of adjectives, both positive and negative, their responses tell a clear story. Cameron, Miliband and Nick Clegg all share the same top attribute: “uninspiring”, followed closely by “negative” (Cameron) and “dull” (Miliband and Clegg).
    Only Nicola Sturgeon breaks this bleak pattern. By a big margin, Britain’s voters reckon that, above all else, she is “passionate”.

    In the past fortnight, around three million voters have switched from one party to another, while a further three million moving to or from the ranks of the don’t knows. The task for the parties in the final ten days is not so much to shatter fixed loyalties as to win over a decent share of the many voters with shallow preferences.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/26/tories-pay-price-inept-campaign/

  20. @Catmanjeff – completely agree – it’s decended into a Mail comments board and a pretty nasty one at that

  21. Seems a clear split in the polls now

    Yougov/populus/panelbase all showing regular 2/3 point labour leads

    Ashcroft / ICM / Opinium / Survation All showing regular tory leads

    TNS/Iposmori a little more split

    Survation/Panelbase high ukip scores

    Its just now whos going to be correct with there polls

  22. Well here we are again, loads of polls all telling a similar story and although the numbers will not be too far out after the proper poll (7/5) it’ll not turn out how these ‘averages’ indicate.

    IMO of the national vote: Cons will have 34%; Lab 29%; LDs 8% with the others sharing the rest. Due to the regional variations – esp. Scotland the SNP will take a chunk of seats mainly from Lab. Converting to seats, on the above %: Con 312; Lab 270; LD 14 (if they are lucky) the rest sharing the remainder.

    Whilst the current LD leader has an unbelievably arrogant and patronising approach to the electorate, the LDs may well form another coalition with Con after 7/5. Because such an ‘alliance’ may well just provide 326. Although other combinations may get close they’ll be too complicated to survive.

    So on the current track, there’ll be little change to the uk govt apart from a shift towards Con.

    Will be difficult for any leader to claim ‘victory’. The fixed term parliament act may need revision/revocation which will permit a dash for another GE within a year.

  23. I’m beginning to understand the reasoning from using jan and feb respondents for election polling – creates a far more stable base and the argument of it overly pro-lab is not bourn out by the approval ratings for Milliband illustrated in Curtis’ write up 70%+ stating a negative approval at this time.

    I always believed that Miliband ratings were a little of red herring with not many being positive but so many undecided when compared to Cameron or indeed Clegg. I’m sure Miliband hasn’t converted those with negative views into positive but I’m sure he has moved a fair chunk of those with no opinion into positive

  24. Something from mathematics PhD. Not sure more than assertion, though:

    “In my opinion, Ashcroft’s use of a separate constituency voting intention question is flawed, as UK voters have only one vote. I believe that the Lib Dems will perform closer to the Ashcroft standard voting intention question, which had similar results to ComRes. Incumbency will not help them, as it is already factored in; the Lib Dems lost net seats in 2010, so they failed to add many seats that might benefit from a sophomore surge.”

    http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/conversationedu/~3/sGinftX04QQ/united-kingdom-election-11-days-to-go-40803

  25. I think the Tories will be quietly pleased with these polls. Looking at the detail of the Survation poll there is a lot of positives for the Tories and in that poll the Labour/SNP argument clearly does have resonance. In the YouGov poll the economy is the post positive for the Government I can remember at +9. It seems clear that what the voters actually want is a continuation of the Coalition, again from the YouGov figures. Neither Labour nor the Tories are seen as having a good campaign so far.

    The Tories should spend the rest of the time up to the election talking about the economy. The GDP figures on Tuesday should help that.

  26. Interesting to see the very substantial drop in concern regarding SNP/Lab over time in that Kellner report. The two questions will be what type of voters and scared/not scared, as this may e more important than the numbers, and also whether Tories can keep this up for the next eleven days.

    The latter of these may well be the most important factor. They hit this button in March, and again with two and a bit weeks to go. The impact is now fading and the campaign moving on, and you can’t keep hitting the same button with the same effect. Not if they went too early on this, but I don’t think we can assume it isn’t hurting Labour – I think it is damaging in important, if small, sections of the electorate.

  27. Good morning Chris.
    Mrs May is position for the leadership and even trying too show how much she knows about Football but I confess to not being aware she was a Man United fan.
    She is correct of course that it was a major crisis when Sir Alex abdicated and whilst things are looking better now getting back to former glories may take a long time.

    FWIW, I have always felt that moderate Hyperbole can help highlight an issue but if excessively done it can be counter-productive.

  28. “The GDP figures on Tuesday should help that.”

    Possible, but maybe not. Some think they are likely to disappoint, with the slowest growth for two years. Telegraph reporting that Tories preparing for weak figures.

  29. ‘OLDNAT
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/26/tories-pay-price-inept-campaign/
    April 26th, 2015 at 8:25 am’

    Very interesting analysis by Kellner. It would appear that votes have been changing, by fairly large amounts, but they have cancelled each other out.
    Will the parties take his advice is the question. For Labour to concentrate on improving Miliband’s personal ratings. For the conservatives stop the Labour in the SNP’s pocket campaign etc and concentrate on the economy. Which to be fair many people on here have been saying for some time is what they should be doing.

  30. Adam B
    ‘The Ashcroft marginals showed, albeit based on 3 seats, a lower swing than Labour need.’

    Without restarting a previous discussion, the swing shown in those 3 seats is pretty much in line with earlier constituency polls, so IMHO, I think we we see that swing in the key seats.
    When you say lower than Labour need, I’d ask want you meant by ‘need’. To be the biggest party in seats or votes, it’s not probably enough, but for EM to be PM, it might well be.

    BTW
    Discussion of the succession of all the party leaders does come up. It isn’t posters wishing it to happen. It is just speculation as it is likely that one or two parties will be looking for a new leader fairly soon.

  31. COUPER2802

    Agree about excessively partisan comments from either side.

    I also have the same feeling as you about YouGov, I actually voiced my worry the other day. I suspect they are overstating Labour by 1-2 points, but have no hard evidence for that. We will just have to wait and see.

  32. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “It seems clear that what the voters actually want is a continuation of the Coalition”.

    ________________________________________

    That’s a fairly optimistic view of the electorate’s appetite for more of NC and the Lib Dems.

  33. Alec
    “Possible, but maybe not. Some think they are likely to disappoint, with the slowest growth for two years. Telegraph reporting that Tories preparing for weak figures.”

    Either way I think they will reinforce the Tories position on the economy. I think if your right it could actually help the Tories, as would more bad news from Europe. The need for “safe hands” argument.

  34. DAVID K

    Not my opinion, It’s just what the voters are saying in the detail of the YouGov poll. Go to the YouGov site and read the detail.

  35. @AdamB

    Stripping out the rabid one sidedness from your post…

    I wouldn’t want to be the leader of any of the main political parties coming out of this election, if the polls are right.

    Cameron will be under extreme pressure, having failed to deliver a majority in two elections. He has also indicated that he won’t be around to fight for a third full term, which is likely to hasten his demise. His best hope is for a strong minority, or a coalition deal that insists he stay as leader.

    Miliband is in a slightly better position. If he does better than in 2010 he may be seen as having moved things forwards. The Labour Party tends not to force leaders out, which helps him. However, if the Conservatives are able to form a Government he will be in deep trouble, especially if Scotland is a wipeout.

    Sturgeon is in by far the best position. The only risk to her is if, somehow, the polls are overstating the SNP in the same way that they did the LibDems in 2010. Then she might look bad by failing to live up to expectations. The nightmare for her, however, would be the challenges of negotiating the coalition deals, especially with the tension between short term benefit (being in power) and long term benefit (a Conservative government that might lead to independence).

    Clegg. Clegg. It all depends on him still being an MP, AND the maths of parliament actually giving the LibDems any say, AND the balance of the remaining LibDem MPs being in his favour. On the other hand…

  36. I have been polled 4 times by YouGov in 5 weeks. Given that the YouGov chat board is overwhelmingly one sided it is likely that if those same posters have been polled at the same rate as I have then this could relate to an inbuilt bias in the resulting polls.
    It should be noted that having watched the said chat board for some time there seems to be a number of accounts that are suspiciously similar, even when a poster account declares itself initially ‘undecided’ it then miraculously suddenly makes a shift to deciding to vote for one particular party. Any such descrepancies resulting is not the fault of YouGov polling directly but that of those who it would seem wish to manipulate the outcomes of such polls. This is an inherent weakness of internet polling whereby authentication is solely achieved by confirmation of an email address. What is worse is when this could be specifically orchestrated from the start whereby when someone ‘registers’ they indicate that they previously voted for a certain party previously only then to change their voting intention to another party in the upcoming election.

  37. Survation poll:

    Q16: Thinking about a potential partnership between Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon, who do you think would have the upper hand?

    Sturgeon: 51%
    Miliband: 28%

    Explains why the Tories are continuing with the SNP line

  38. @Bill

    “Given that the YouGov chat board is overwhelmingly one sided it is likely that…..”

    In a nutshell, you’re saying that YouGov polls overestimate the SNP vote?

  39. Sme of the Survation questions are odd (ie the one about which politician is less likely to shower each day) however some are quite interesting and very pro Tory

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MoSTablesku89634.pdf

    Another interesting one is Q25, asking whether voters would consider voting Tory to stop a Lab/SNP deal. A whopping 43% of LD voters said they would and similarly 37% of UKIP voters. Again explains why this line is being pursued by the COnservatives

  40. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    From yougov: on the economy is there any significant change from last weeks perceptions on state of the economy and personal finances? It seems pretty stable. The number of respondents stating the economy is performing well being cancelled out by those feeling it’s worse. Those feeling that household income is better are less than those believing it to be worse.

    I’m not sure I see any great advantage on the issue from that data.

  41. @Bill

    Seriously, the decision to close the YouGov panel for political polling has surely minimised that risk. The panel is huge relative to the very small numbers who post here. I’ve been sampled once in the last month, and I can assure you that my voting pattern in 2010 and political allegiances were correctly stated when I joined the panel several years back.

  42. Thank you to everyone on this thread. I apologise that I lost my temper with someone last night and left a ‘snipy’ comment in consequence. It was not in the spirit of this place to do so. Sorry.

  43. @AdamB

    For once, I agree with you re the Conservative tactics (notwithstanding [snip])

    Peter Kellner seems to be taking a different line, but looking at the detail of this morning’s YouGov polling it doesn’t seem to bear out his claims at all. I know that many consider his judgement to be sound, but I haven’t shared that view, ever since he took the line in the immediate aftermath of May 2010 that Labour needed to tack further to the centre because its core supporters had nowhere else to go.

  44. ‘ADAMB
    Another interesting one is Q25, asking whether voters would consider voting Tory to stop a Lab/SNP deal. A whopping 43% of LD voters said they would and similarly 37% of UKIP voters. Again explains why this line is being pursued by the Conservatives
    April 26th, 2015 at 9:27 am’

    Am sure you are right , Conservatives should continue doing exactly what they have done so far. going on about Labour being controlled by the SNP and continue the attacks on Miliband’s character. What could possibly go wrong:-)

  45. Ha! On Andrew Marr EM says he can win in Scotland.

  46. [snip] Clegg has said that a 2nd placed.party leading Government is illegitimate [snip]

  47. @adamb – the write up from Curtis paints a very different picture from Survation and I know where my money is in terms of credibility and record of polling accuracy

  48. Sorry Anthony feel free to snip that!

  49. Alec, TOH
    I think the reaction to GDP figures will depend entirely on the media coverage.
    Even marginally better GDP than forecast will be a good thing for the government – marginally worse and it’ll still probably be played as a positive story.

    Either way, I suspect that the press (even the Beeb) won’t actually do a good job of putting the figures in any sort of context – they generally report the Q/Q growth figure when they should be reporting the 4Q/4Q change in GDP and the trend in that.

    As far as what GDP will turn out to be – Total Actual Hours worked is usually a good indicator, as is private debt (debt drives nominal growth, nominal growth drives employment, employment drives real growth). Hours worked is steadily increasing so real growth should be too.

  50. @rich – was the reorganisation of NHS despite not being mentioned in Cons or LD’s manifestos ‘legitimate’ was the LD’s signing up to Tory economic austerity approach despite having a approach identical to labours prior to the election legitimate? It’s a stale and very defensive argument.

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