There are three GB voting intention polls in tomorrow’s papers – YouGov, Opinium and Survation. Topline figures for all three are below:

  • YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • Opinium/Observer – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
  • Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 33%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs)

376 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Opinium and Survation figures”

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    Well obviously for a percentage, inside and outside the party, they have not shifted right fast or far enough. At the moment though it is just a smallish, though significant percentage, and to be honest I think they need their own party rather than pulling the majority Conservative party into their own position.

  2. SunReada
    I think conservative members should consider what their opponents would fear most.
    If they choose Osbourn or Gove, I should imagine Labour HQ would be cracking open a crate of brown ale.
    I think they would fear May the most.

  3. Revision of my estimates for Liverpool Riverside (uninteresting and unimportant)

    There hasn’t been any leaflet from UKIP or LiBDems (and I haven’t seen any posters by them), so instead of giving the majority of the LibDem votes to UKIP, I split them. And as a result, the predictions are:

    Labour: 62
    Conservatives: 11
    Green: 11
    LibDem: 9
    UKIP: 6
    Others: 1

    Movements are possible, but not relevant.

  4. YouGov starting to look a little at odds with the other pollsters?

    Some Labour voters are getting ahead of themselves again, They have not won the election yet and David Cameron is still the leader of the Conservative party.

  5. I can’t repeat this often enough:

    There is no way Osborne will be the next leader if Cameron loses.

  6. Laszlo

    Is ‘Councillor Jake’ making any headlines in Liverpool these days?

  7. “YouGov starting to look a little at odds with the other pollsters?
    Some Labour voters are getting ahead of themselves again, They have not won the election yet and David Cameron is still the leader of the Conservative party.”

    I am not a Labour voter. would never vote for them, but i have thought Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister in 2015 for the last 3 years.

    The tory leadership is a live issue for me.

  8. Every day we are getting polls wobbling around the 33.5% mark, some with one main party ahead, some with the other. But there’s no clear lead developing that I can see in either vote share or seats won. No matter which average I mess around with, I get, umm, neck and neck or possibly a tiny Labour lead and them one seat ahead at most. So we might as well call that neck and neck. And I’m thinking that this situation may well will continue until polling day.

    Then again, it’s not the first election campaign with not much movement. They’re not all like 1992.

  9. It looks like the MoS got their headline from the supplemental questions — “Poll: 4 in 10 UKIP backers would switch to Tory to stop [Lab/SNP] deal”. That’s table 54.

    Now, given that the “4 in 10” is 56 out of a weighted 150 out of a weighted 622, what’s the MoE there? Not that far away from extrapolating from the regional crossbreaks.

    Still, I suppose if you pay for a poll, you get to pick the headline you want from it.

  10. Cloudspotter
    “If they choose Osbourn or Gove, I should imagine Labour HQ would be cracking open a crate of brown ale”

    We are told that CCHQ celebrated when Ed Miliband was chosen as Labour leader & look how far that’s got them !

  11. Ray from the North

    Yes 2007 and 2012

    No of councillors – Party : 2003 : 2007 : 2012

    Lab : 509 : 348 : 394
    SNP : 181 : 363 : 425
    LD : 175 : 166 : 115
    Con : 122 : 143 : 425


    Not really. councillor Jake Morrison won’t stand as an independent, and said that he liked the Green Party candidate.

    But it is in Wavertree you see, so we go there from Riverside only for shopping purposes.

    Funny it is with Wavertree. LiBDems thought they could capture it in 2014. Now the Greens have hopes (not that high). Well, just look at the map s my advice. Figure out how you can capture an extremely stratified constituency. Otherwise you can hope to be second.

  13. Oldnat

    Massive difference. If we end up down the federal route we’ve got to have PR (in Eng) IMO, but as I say I’d have it now for HOC if it were up to me.

  14. I think the reason that Lib, Lab and Con are more or less unchanged for several months is that none of them are presenting any kind of vision or leadership.

    Con – We’ll cut the deficit better than anyone else

    Lab – We’ll cut the deficit slower than them and look after the NHS better

    Lib – We’ll fit into the fag-paper difference between the two

    It’s only the minor parties that want to shake things up e.g.

    SNP – Free Scotland from UK
    UKIP – Free UK from EU
    Green – Stop caging rabbits

    and so on.

  15. LiBDems wanted Wavertree in 2010 obviously, now they hope for their deposit.

    Apologies for not being able type 2010, but being able to type 2014 in the previous comment ….

  16. Cloudspotter

    I agree, May looks to me like a leader. Boris is Boris and shove him on the front bench and he can still be Boris. As leader I fear he would have to tone down and get tainted. May comes across as a straight up no nonsense woman.

    I have found Gove one of the best front line Tory speakers this campaign, some of his newsnight interviews are very funny, he is a personality. But he’s to posh boy, that’s why May, the strong older lady stands out to me.

    With the 7th drawing closer you still couldn’t put a pin head between CON and LAB. I’m surprised Labour haven’t taken more of a lead as I feel the CON campaign has been lacking in energy and struggling to break through.

  17. @Oldnat
    “Having to choose between brown ale and Chardonnay is probably the worst crisis since the abdication.”

    Very good :-)

  18. @OldNat – That Conservative jump to equal first in 2012 is surprising.

  19. Bloody tablet! Correction

    No of councillors – Party : 2003 : 2007 : 2012

    Lab : 509 : 348 : 394
    SNP : 181 : 363 : 425
    LD : 175 : 166 : 71
    Con : 122 : 143 : 115

    Posting the wrong numbers for LDs & Cons may have been the worst crisis since the abdication!

  20. Oldnat

    Didn’t look at bottom line – didn’t notice!

  21. The Tories will be saved if Kate does her duty. The feel-good factor of having a new royal baby will have an effect on floating voters to make them happy with life and therefore the political status quo.

    As an afterthought, as the timing of this election was known well in advance, was William under orders to knock her up 9 months ago?

  22. TERRYP

    I don’t think Gove is actually posh, he just acts and talks it.

    He was adopted by normal Scottish parents.


    The problem with this claim is that it is so over the top it actually betrays that Conservatives are being told to say unsubtle things by Lynton Crosby.

    Its like Michael Fallon saying that Ed Miliband had stabbed his brother in the back.

  24. @ Pete B

    Oh, but as it is written in a 19th century book called Strange Marriage, “there are no Devine or human laws that dictate that babies should be born after 270 days.”

  25. One thing that stands out for me on Survation is likely to vote

    10/10 likely to vote by age group
    18-34 29% !!!
    35-54 63%
    55+ 79%

    As most of the Labour lead is in that 18-34 age group, and the next tables are weighted by likelihood to vote, that accounts for a good part of that low Labour score.

    The weighting by age group from the first table (no turnout weighting) to the second table(weighted by turnout) is as follows

    18-34 29% (26%)
    35-54 35% (36%)
    55+ 36% (38%)

    And historically that looks right, those young age groups don’t bother voting.

  26. For what it is worth the rolling average of 17 pollster surveys undertaken between April 16th and 24th, after the five way debate, excluding the Survation/Mail on Sunday poll April 24th/25th is as follows:

    Conservative 33.5% -.5%
    Labour 32.4% -.1.1%
    UKIP 13.8% +1.3%
    Liberal Democrat 8.5% +.4%
    Other (SNP/PC) 7.2% +1%
    Green Party 4.6% -1.1%

    Thus the Conseravtives, while losing .5% support over the week, have consolidated their lead over Labour for the second week in a row at .9%.

    Labour have lost 1.1% support during the third week of the campaign, while UKIP appear to have gotten a 1.3% bounce coming out of the five way debate,

    The nationalist, SNP and Plaid Cymru, also appear to have obtained a 1% bounce coming out of the debate, while the Lib Dems are also up .4% over the week and the Green Party apparently has lost 1.1% during the last week and thus is back to where it was in the first week of the campaign.

    Labour and Conservative between them have combined support of 65.9%, which with the Lib Dem support equals
    74.4%,as compard to the 88.1% obtained in 2010.

    So less than two weeks out from the 2015 election and 25.6%, 1 in 4 voters are telling the pollsters they intend to vote for some other partry than the traditional three parties.

    And I will again state that if the three traditoional parties continue to hammer away at each other in the form of negative campaigning, they will lose even more support than they have already lost, and suppress voter turnout to boot.

    I would estimate that somewhere around 1 in 10 voters canavassed today declared they had already voted, and the number of people canvassed saying they are going to vote UKIP is increasing.

  27. @PeteB

    I can think of few things that interest me less than the meaningless sprogging of meaningless royals. I don’t doubt others have different and opposing views, but I don’t recall EVER seeing polling on the political importance of the Saxe-Coburg-Gothas, let alone the birth of second children to heirs apparent once removed.


    SNP 48 (+3) Lab 27 (-2) Con 16 (+2) LD 4 (nc) UKIP 3 (-1) Greens 2 (nc)

  29. @Pete B
    ‘The Tories will be saved if Kate does her duty. The feel-good factor of having a new royal baby will have an effect on floating voters to make them happy with life and therefore the political status quo.’

    I imagine that has been said tongue in cheek. Only true blue rinsed Tory lady types are likely to give a toss about a new royal sprog – or ‘hanger on’ – for the nation to look after.

  30. Comment on Panelbase poll: a good poll for SNP who are close to the all time high in Scottish politics. Can they exceed 50% on polling day and take all the seats?

  31. @Andy S

    How many polls are averaged to get your rolling average?

    If there have been 17 polls, do you take the last X polls to get the average?

    Do you weight them in any way?

  32. Panelbase is disappointing for Labour who will hope it is off.

    I note that the no % is 49% and a lot of people seem to want full fiscal autonomy. Check out TSE at pb for details.

  33. profhoward

    Interesting, I admit I didn’t know that!

    Every days a school day.

    Talking of Scotland what are the chances of their being 2 Conservative seats after the election. As far as I can make out they are well in the fight in berwick roxburgh and Selkirk and Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Mind you they could end up with none again it being so close.

    I have a feeling they will sneak both.

  34. The acts of desperation and hyperbole will increase daily as the parties grow more desperate to break from the polldrums. In the last five weeks, the polls have barely moved despite policy announcements, smears and alleged scandals.

    Eve tactical voting is not working. UKIP is not swinging back to the Tories, nor are Greens flocking to Labour. Even those LidDems that had not moved prior to five weeks ago are staying with the LibDems.

    We have reports of Cons voting SNP to stop Labour, Labour voting LibDem to stop Cons, LibDems voting for everyone to stop everyone….

    I expect the smears to increase and the disgust of the voters to treble. The media meltdown in favour of their preferred party will only increase the disengagement of the voters.

    May 5th will be a long night and the post vote negotiations will be loud, crude and nasty.

  35. Survation have helpfully clarified that the changes listed in their poll a few hours ago were to their last Mail on Sunday poll… 21st March!

  36. @MOG and Graham

    Whether you approve of the Royals or not, it is a fact that a lot of people do, and they are not all dyed-in-the-wool Tories.

    I tried to make my comment amusing, but there is a real point. A new royal baby will make some floating voters happy, and that in turn might make them more likely to vote for the status quo. In a very close election this might just sway a few seats towards the Tories.

    I know that there’s a lot of mights and maybes in that, but it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.

  37. Tweets from TSE on the Full Scottish Panelbase poll (he obviously has a subscription!)

    Latest @Panelbase leader ratings Sturgeon +21, Murphy -21 Mili -24, Cam -38, Clegg on -49, Davidson -21, Rennie -30.

    Latest @Panelbase poll finds 49% back independence and 51% are opposed.

    The @Panelbase poll finds that 50% believe the SNP rather than Lab (18%) best placed to protect Scotland from UK govt public spending cuts.

    The @Panelbase poll finds that full fiscal autonomy is backed by 53% of Scot voters and opposed by 33%

  38. May 5th will be a long night

    But the 7th will be even longer.

  39. Dear oh dear. What’s this talk of the Tories wining 50% more seats in Scotland? There ain’t a hope in hell the Tories will win two seats in Scotland. Not even they silly borders unite in daft itchy tweed could deliver the Tories another seat.

    In fact…I would go as far to say Erick Pickles stands a better chance of completing the London marathon within a week than the Tories stand wining two seats in Scotland.

  40. @Allan

    They can wine as many as they want. :-p

  41. LASZLO

    Thank you for pointing out the error. It will only seem like three nights long. l

  42. Another good poll for the SNP. Less than two weeks to go and their lead is holding up and in some cases even increasing. Possibly due to all the publicity the Tories are giving them..

    You know what they say………..”Any publicity

    ………………… good publicity”


    Oops #winning

  44. Statgeek @ Allan Christie

    A Merlot for me, please.

  45. @ Laszlo

    I find that comforting, thank you.

  46. I’m using Firefox and it auto predicts words when I type. Switching back to Google Chrome.

  47. Pete B
    We heard that kind of nonsense about the royal wedding in 2011, the Diamond Jubilee and Olympics in 2012. It proved to be utter gibberish – indeed in so far as a new baby has any effect at all it might be as a diversion from the election campaign depriving Cameron of time to push his messages.

  48. @Laszlo

    I accept I don’t know the detail of events in Liverpool in the 1980’s.

    I can only tell you about perceptions. My perception was that Liverpool was considered to be one of the Great Cities, and after Militant it was dismissed and is still dismissed. i.e. their reputation took a knock. You can argue whether it was fair or not – but it took a knock and is still suffering from it.

  49. @OldNat

    It would be nice if people like myself didn’t make uncomfortable observations, wouldn’t it? :-)

    Perceptions of situations can be more damaging than the actuality. Reputations that take centuries to build can be trashed within the space of a few months.

    Scotland’s reputation within the rest of the UK has taken a knock since the SNP started to gain a high profile. We had the spectacle of Scots saying “It’s owr oil” followed by the oil crash and everyone now hyper-aware of how much Scots are subsidized (even by regions poorer than themselves like Wales).

    Hence that image of Salmond as a pickpocket is very very clever and will resonate. Because that’s the image of Scotland that is now taking hold. No longer the canny dour society that was good with money, but a whinny self-pitying group who don’t want to share but wants everyone else to subsidize them.

    It will affect everything. Why would a smart person emigrate to Scotland? Why would a smart person stay in Scotland? Why would a business decide to relocate to Scotland? Why would a Scottish business decide to stay?

    This is going to have long-reaching effects and the negative perception was all Made by the SNP.

  50. P.S.

    Here’s an example of how perceptions shape views: Gordon Brown’s reputation of being the “Prudent Chancellor” was entirely built on the idea of “the prudent Scottish bank manager”, with the emphasis on Scottish.

    In other words, it wasn’t much about him, but him drawing on a positive stereotype of Scots for his own benefit.

    Will any Scot be able to pull that off again? I doubt it – and surprisingly this is less to do with Brown and more to do with the spotlight shone on Scotland since the referendum, which smashed the idea that Scots were “prudent”.

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