There are three GB voting intention polls in tomorrow’s papers – YouGov, Opinium and Survation. Topline figures for all three are below:

  • YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • Opinium/Observer – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
  • Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 33%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs)

376 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Opinium and Survation figures”

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  1. Survation has a series of interesting tables – for those interested in polling methodology.

    They ask both SVI and CVI, and give a variety of tables on each including –

    (a) “Normal weightings & likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed.”

    and

    (b) “Normal weightings & likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed and replaced with 0.3 factor of 2010 vote

    They include national crossbreaks.

    Scottish crossbreak Party : SVI (a) : SVI (b) : CVI (a) : CVI (b) (for 4 main parties)

    SNP : 50.1% : 49.1% : 51.9% : 51.8%
    Lab : 25.3% : 25.5% : 25.7% : 25.7%
    Con : 12.1% : 11.7% : 9.7% : 9.7%
    LD : 7.8% : 9.3% : 8.4% : 8.4%

    Using 0.3 of 2010 vote for undecided/refusers makes a small difference within VI, none in CVI.

    Under CVI the biggest two parties do better.

    BUT the numbers are very wee!

  2. How many times does it have to be said that crossbreaks are crossbreaks, not mini-polls – they aren’t properly weighted and have tiny samples and are thus liable to look odd. Their only real use is when you average them over a long-ish period (say, four or five polls). Rogue polls will by definition have rogue cross-breaks within them… but so will many perfectly normal polls.

    Bottom line is everything is still tied up and its hard to see much changing now. Best hope of a shift is probably a squeeze on Ukippers but if it does happen I doubt it will be dramatic. Only got to wait 11 days now to see how polls turn out

  3. I thought UKIP didn’t do so well in London for the EU elections – so it’s surprising to me that London is where Survation are finding their higher UKIP numbers.

  4. “Sam Cam is descended from the Astors”

    Not true. Her mother married, as her 2nd husband, an Astor. Lord Astor is Sam Cam’s stepfather.

  5. RAF
    In defence of Survation…

    That’s interesting. So they may be right or not. Still if they are right why the sudden leap of ex labour voters moving to UKIP in mid April?

  6. @Adam B

    I did not dismiss the Tory lead in either Opinium or Survation. In the latter, I suggested the Ukip score is too high compared to other polls. I also stated this when they used to show Labour ahead with disproportionately high Ukip numbers dragging down the Tory vote.

  7. A Labour lead holding steady and two moves towards Labour. Just need Ashcroft to follow suit and we’ll be back where we started. All polls showing m-o-e around a tie/very slight Lab lead.

  8. Sly

  9. RAF

    or have I read the Labour to UKIP mid April shift incorrectly?

  10. AdamB – gold standard YouGov not baring that out – it’s not dismissing its questioning the elements that make up a poll looking, let’s say a bit iffy…. But hey your probably right Tories are 3pts up and poised to sweep London along with UKIP in wales

  11. @raf

    Did you find any methodology change from Survation? I had a search too but couldn’t find anything.

  12. Osborne is backing boris and wont even run.

  13. @DAVID IN OXFORD

    That is an interesting point. If I was voting for a tory leader I would be looking for who can win the 2020GE and a working class tory like MT or JM has much more chance of appealing to the post 97 more left wing electorate than BJ,GO or TM.

  14. Three comments tonight and I’ll put them in separate posts.

    On the polls, it’s polldrums. You could construct them as a move to Lab but I can’t see that as any more as RTM

  15. Jack you aren’t addressing the point though – two normally very strong Lab areas have Lab losing, even adding 10% to the Lab figure in Wales and London still wouldn’t give you what specific polls of these areas have been telling us.

  16. @John B

    The regional crossbreaks are of very limited value as the margin of error is about 10%. But the poll as a whole has a margin of error of about 3%.

    The way to interpret this is: Given any poll there is quite a high probability that any individual crossbreak is weird, but the probability that all/most of the crossbreaks are weird, i.e that the entire poll is weird, is much smaller.

  17. OLDNAT

    That looks like some Cons switching to SNP on CVI.

  18. @SUNREADA

    Interesting. Where did you hear? I think it is sensible as he just isn’t leader material. He just comes across too creepy. Has done great job as COE tho.

  19. @Catoswyn
    RAF
    “In defence of Survation…
    That’s interesting. So they may be right or not. Still if they are right why the sudden leap of ex labour voters moving to UKIP in mid April?”

    Ask Survation!

    I think their Ukip numbers are too high, but we won’t know if this is true until Friday 8th May.

  20. Smithy
    I said Con up 1% over this coming week – don’t attribute other stuff to me. YG results since they changed their calcs have been v Lab friendly so them putting lab up by 2% is as expected
    Adam

  21. I don’t understand some people here, the post 1997 electorate ISN’T more left wing, we are still living under a thatcherite consensus of smaller state, private industry etc, its just the Tories have shifted WAY to far to the right to ever win a majority.

  22. BigD – what is your point? That Con are genuinely ahead in London/Wales? Or that the poll should be treated with suspicion?

  23. Just posted ‘On This Day’ at 10.57pm and I’m afraid I’ve triggered automod once again.

    I can’t work out why, and these retrospectives seem to be prone to non obvious automoding for some reason.

    I won’t be around in the morning, so if anyone wishes to petition for it’s release, feel free.

  24. At James K
    Sorry
    The point I was making is That SamC is a billionaire inher own right, irrespective of whether it was her father or stepfather, I don’t think Dc Has to worry about it, but I I am concerned that he has given up the shout because he will never be poor in his lifetime.

  25. @JOHN SMITH

    I’m interested what evidence you have of a lurch to the right by tories?

  26. SUNREADA
    Osborne is backing boris and wont even run.

    Interesting. Is that what he has said?

  27. ADAM B

    “As often on here, Tory favourable polls dismissed as ‘wrong’ but any showing a Labour lead reflect reality”

    As often on here, you seem to be ignoring those who think the topline C leads from ICM and ComRes are more representative than the toplines from Survation.

    There have been four polls since March 15th with L below 32: two from Ashcroft, two from Survation. Over that same period, there have been twelve polls with C below 32, mostly from Populus, but over a wider range of pollsters.

    I start to look hard at any poll that puts L *or* C at 31 or lower.

  28. Who is winning the ground war?

    Here are some anecdotal observations made today while out and about in Lib Dem held Bristol West, before watching my football team win 7-0 in front of a conference league record of 11,000, achieve 91pts and still fail to be promoted automatically. But I have had a brain fade and forgotten the name of my team.

    As indicated by some on the last thread…….
    Just going on the display posters, I can confirm that Labour are well ahead (a lot) of the Greens (a fair few), with only a token few Lib Dems and Conservatives. It would back up the notion that Labour are well positioned to take this seat. So much so that the desire shown by one house in a more leafy middle class suburban area, was not just content with putting a placard in the garden, but also to fly a red flag from their flag pole! It was very funny and I should have stopped to get a picture.

    More anecdotal poster evidence regarding the Conservative marginal of Kingswood (Bristol). I have been extensively going around all the areas wealthy and otherwise for the last 3 weeks and just going on posters displayed, Labour would win by a landslide and next is UKIP. I saw the first Conservative one up only today and still yet to see a Lib Dem. The Tories must be shy of displaying posters.

  29. @AR558 – Gradual Privatisation of the NHS, reduction of State Spending as a % of GDP, cuts of Welfare Benefits outside of Pensions etc etc

    Plus the perception issue has returned that they are run by the elites, Cameron, Osbourne etc

    a bad combination imo.

  30. On Villagate

    I agree with most posting here that it is unlikely to effect VI. However, I see this as the second minor “Oops” moment for DC compared to a clean sheet for EM (the other being the “only two terms” moment). Together they won’t effect VI but if there are more before Election Day it could. Unlikely, but still a risk or opportunity (depending on your own political persuasion).

  31. @Paul Bristol – wishing you all the worst vs. FGR ;)

  32. Survations with odd cross breaks.

    I have noticed previous possible outliers have had unusual regional cross breaks. Of course this happens if there are only 100-200 people in that section random variation makes it inevitable that they will be wild. On saying that I think they must skew the whole poll because if we were statistically just tossing a coin, it would not matter what the previous results in one region was the others would on average be average [comment of the night :) ]

  33. Prof Howard

    The numbers are extremely small, but some Cons voting SNP, and some voting Lab in CVI is something I’ve spotted signs of elsewhere.

    Murphy’s banging on about “largest party” doesn’t seem to have damaged the SNP, but may have impressed Tories.

    Of course, much may be hidden within churn.

  34. AR558 –

    Conservative move to the right…

    As Ken Clarke pointed out last week they can hardly be considered the old ‘one nation’ party or even ‘Thatcherite’ anymore. In addition the inclusion of the Christian right from within the party in the form of Ian Duncan Smith has leant a new moral tone to major policies.

  35. @ Geoff

    What I’m saying is the regional cross breaks in the Survation poll can’t have a moe of + or – 10% because even if you add 10% to Lab scores in London and Wales they still are too low compared to specific polls in that area. For the overall poll to be right Lab scores in other regional cross breaks would have to be a lot higher than reality to compensate for very low scores in 20% of the country (London plus Wales) – that simply isn’t the case!

  36. @Catoswyn @Sunreada

    I can’t see Osborne running if Cameron loses the election. Their careers are bound together and he’d surely realise he couldn’t offer the freshness that a party needs when it goes into opposition. I imagine he’d retire to the backbenches for a few years then come back into the fold Hague-style at some point later.

    May and Boris surely nailed on to run if there’s a contest, probably against a moderniser (Javid or Morgan, probably Javid) and a right-winger (Paterson or Fox, probably Paterson). Maybe somebody else – say, Jeremy Hunt or Liz Truss – might run to strengthen their position within the party more than in the realistic hope of winning.

  37. Oldnat

    Totally off thread …. but, I’m asking this as a supporter of PR:

    If Holyrood was pure FPTP do you think the SNP could have dethroned Labour on the same timescale as you have under PR?

  38. @ John Smith
    Thanks, your wish could be granted, as the football gods hate us.

  39. JACK SHELDON

    Sounds right. What about Phil Hammond?

  40. @JOHN SMITH

    Gradual Privatisation of the NHS, reduction of State Spending as a % of GDP, cuts of Welfare Benefits outside of Pensions etc etc

    Privatisation of the NHS is a very small percentage and was started by Labour.

    eduction of State Spending as a % of GDP, cuts of Welfare Benefits outside of Pensions . That is down to the need to eradicate the deficit , balancing the books and running surplus’ in non recession times have always been Tory goals.

    The Perception that they are run by the elite does seem to much more of an issue than historically.

    I think Thatcher just made those who disliked her hate the party with such a white heat (for reasons I have never understood) and that mean’t that former tory or floaters wont vote tory ever and neither will there children or grandchildren. It’s emotion based but it has pushed the country left as most of those voters are now Labour lifers.

  41. PAUL BRISTOL
    Thanks, your wish could be granted, as the football gods hate us.

    Not as much as they hate Yeovil!

  42. Re osborne -this is press comment over the past few weeks from friends etc.

    Nothing official but osborne has routinely been hosting drinks for backbenchers and knows he doesnt have support.Gove will have discretely canvassed opinion as well.

    The eurosceptic right will back May but the centreground know that as the tories wont have won a majority for 28 years (by 2020) they need johnson despite his personal.weaknesses.

    Imo he will try to mend fences with ukip and offer the snp ffa.

  43. @Catoswyn

    Hammond’s John Major Mark II, isn’t he (albeit a tad posher)? Not sure what he’d get out of this type of contest though unless he decided to firmly align himself with the right. Final vote is members and supporters and I just don’t think he has the following or image to win them over.

  44. On the successor to DC

    I’m part way through reading Anthony King’s excellent (so far) book, “Who Governs Britain?” In it he’s reminded me that the process for electing a Tory leader is that the MPs narrow it down to two candidates and then it’s down to the party membership to decide the leader.

    Assuming DC resigns after the GE and that Boris is elected as MP, I expect the MPs will narrow it down to Boris plus either May or Osborne. However, as AK points out in his book, the party won’t necessarily follow public opinion (as they did electing IDS as leader). Therefore it is unsafe to assume that Boris will follow DC as their leader

  45. BigD
    MoE is a red herring when you are thinking about cross breaks. The reason there is no point in looking a single cross break is that they are not a balanced sample. You might have way too many ABCs or over 65s in an individual region, but it will be balanced out by lower numbers of those groups in another.

    Averaging out cross breaks over a number of polls may balance out the sub groups, but it’s not for certain. When I looked at an average of 7 Yougov’s by region, I found it did not reflect at all what constituency polls show in these regions. Uniform swing across England gave a much better fit.

  46. some observations whilst driving around various South Wales Constituencies today. Not seen a single Labour poster in Neil Kinnock’s old constituency of Islwyn.

    A smattering of Labour, one UKIP and one PC in Caerphilly!

    9 Labour, 1 PC and 1 Con in the Vale of Glamorgan, although this was mainly the urban area of Barry so not reading much into that.

    Lots of Labour posters in Cardiff Central, must have been in excess of 50, not a single Lib Dem one, my conclusion from that is that Lab will win CC at a canter.

    Lab outnumbering Con posters 2:1 in Cardiff North

  47. AR558
    It’s emotion based but it has pushed the country left as most of those voters are now Labour lifers.

    I think its true that there are things people live through that can affect their voting patterns for life. Conservatives voters who went through the ‘winter of discontent’ for instance or Labour voters who found their lives negatively affected in the Thatcher years.

    However, that doesn’t mean the Conservatives today have not moved further to the right, maybe under pressure from UKIP over the last period. There were things that Margaret Thatcher rejected that this government has enthusiastically implemented. There is also an issue of ‘tone’. This particular bunch of Conservatives has elements that are admiring of, and veering towards, a much more Americanized version of neo-Conservative thinking than we have had before. In short it is not just the past that affects people’s votes but how they perceive the current parties position. This, in the Conservative’s case, is maybe a bit too much to the right to ensure electoral success in terms of majority government.

  48. Ray from the North

    “If Holyrood was pure FPTP do you think the SNP could have dethroned Labour on the same timescale as you have under PR?”

    Certainly not on that timescale – if at all.

    To that, I’d add that the decision of the LDs to force their Coalition partners to adopt STV for local elections was critical as well. The shift in the number of full time party activists from Lab to SNP had a significant effect.

  49. ” its just the Tories have shifted WAY to far to the right to ever win a majority.”

    yes that’s why about 15% of their supporters in 2010 now vote for UKIP.

  50. Oldnat

    Right, hadn’t thought about the local election side of it either. There’d have been 2 PR-local cycles by now then is that right?

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