The election battlegrounds… and a prediction
It’s a truism that there isn’t one election on May 7th, there are 650. However, the brutal reality is that lots of them will behave much the same in terms of swing, and that in lots of them the outcome is a virtual certainty and they won’t matter. A good 450 or so seats we can be pretty confident won’t change hands this Thursday unless the polls are very wrong. We can actually boil down the election to four battlegrounds. Here’s where they are and what we know about them from the polling so far.
Conservative vs Labour battleground
The main battleground in determining which party will lead the government is that between Labour and Conservative. It’s also by far the largest – it’s true to say that the political geography of Britain has become ever more diverse since the days when almost every race was just Lab-v-Con, but the biggest single chunk of winnable marginals is still just that.
It’s also the battleground where good old uniform national swing remains a fairly good guide. It won’t predict individual seats – there will always be some seats with much bigger swings, some with more smaller ones – but in aggregate it should give a good picture. Overall current polls show a swing of about 3% or 3.5% from Conservative to Labour. In the Con-Lab battleground that should win Labour roughly forty seats.
However, there are two important caveats to this. The first is that almost all the Con-Lab battleground is in England & Wales, and GB polls are distorted by the completely different swing in Scotland. Labour’s vote is up by around 5 or 6 points in England & Wales, down by about 15 to 20 points in Scotland. If you look at the data in just England & Wales you find a Con>Lab swing nearer 5 points, which would win Labour around sixty seats.
The second is whether the swing in the marginal seats is the same as the swing in England and Wales as a whole. Looking at the historical data there is good reason to expect it won’t be. The vast majority of the Con-Lab battleground seats are being fought by first time Conservative incumbents who won the seat in 2010, this means they will be gaining an incumbent advantage they didn’t have last time, while in many cases Labour will be losing an incumbent advantage they enjoyed in 2010. Looking at data from past elections this impact is pretty consistent even if it is worth only a couple of percentage points (it’s worth far more for the Lib Dems). There is some evidence to support this – the recent ComRes poll of Con-Lab marginals found a swing of 3.5%. Looking at the broad sweep of Lord Ashcroft’s polls in these seats and adjusting the older Ashcroft polls to account for changes in the national polls since they were done the average swing comes out around 3.8%.
In practice this means the swing in the Con-Lab marginals may well be similar to that in the national polls, but only because Labour’s over-performance in England & Wales is cancelled out by Conservative over-performance in Con-Lab marginals. That means Labour gains from the Tories of around 40 seats, if the national polls are neck-and-neck (if the Conservatives are a point or two better, the gains will obviously be less)
Of course there will be variation between seats, so not all Con-Lab marginals with majorities below 7% will fall, there have been some constituency polls suggesting good chances of Conservative holds in marginals like Loughborough, Worcester or Kingswood. Equally though there will be some seats with larger majorities that do fall – London constituency polls in particularly have shown larger swings, so watch for places like Ealing Central & Acton or Finchley & Golders Green.
The SNP Landslide
The second biggest focus on election night will probably be the Scottish seats. What the story will be in Scotland is not in dispute, it will be a SNP landslide. The question is only the scale of that landslide. All the polling evidence gives the SNP a very large lead, varying between 20 and 35 points. The questions are where it ends up in that range, how accurate it is and how it translates into seats.
To deal with the overall polls first, I can well imagine that some polls in Scotland will overestimate SNP support. There have been huge shifts in party support since previous elections (and probably significant changes in the drivers of voting intention in Scotland) making it hard to model and weight Scottish samples. Equally SNP support is extremely enthusiastic – I can well imagine differential response rates becoming a problem. That said, polling error in Scotland probably won’t cause much of an upset because of the sheer size of the SNP lead – to put it bluntly, if polls give a party a 5 point lead and it turns out its actually a draw then it makes a huge difference. If polls give a party a 25 point lead and it turns out that lead is actually only 20 points it is not, in practice, such a big deal, even if the scale of the error is the same. The difference will only be between “vast landslide” and “huge landslide”. I cannot see the polls being so wrong that the SNP don’t get a crushing victory.
So how will the SNP landslide in votes translate into seats? Well, with a swing of this scale Uniform National Swing really does break down completely. UNS assumes parties shares of the vote go up and down by the same amount in each seat, but Labour cannot lose 20 percentage points in every seat in Scotland, it would give them a negative share of the vote in nine seats. The same applies to the Liberal Democrats. As a result of this floor effect, Labour and the Liberal Democrats must be losing more support in seats where they had more to begin with – their vote has fallen too much to be evenly spread across all of Scotland. This means that Labour and the Lib Dems could lose even more seats than suggested by uniform swing (and means even if the national share of the vote for the SNP isn’t as good as polls suggest, they could still get the sort of landslide in seats that the polls suggest).
The scale of the SNP surge is such that very few seats have any realistic chance of withstanding it. The most plausible ones are the very largest Labour majorities, the Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldys of the world, Jim Murphy in Renfrewshire East, the Lib Dem stronghold of Orkney & Shetland and perhaps the border seats (if the SNP don’t take Berwickshire, it is also a marginal between the Lib Dems and Conservatives).
Liberal Democrat Defence
Given the Conservative party’s most viable coalition partner is the Liberal Democrats how many seats change hands between the two parties doesn’t make much difference to the electoral maths after the election. It is still obviously important for negotiations, party morale, the psychologically and politically important issue of who is the biggest party (and, of course, for who is the MP in those seats!). Liberal Democrat battles against Labour are far more important in terms of the hung Parliament maths.
The Liberal Democrats’ ability to win and hold seats has a famously limited relationship with their national vote share. In 1992 they got 18% of the vote and won 20 seats, in 1997 their vote went down to 17% but they more than doubled their number of seats to 46. In 2010 they gained votes, but lost 5 seats. How many seats they win has always been largely reliant upon their ability to harness tactical and personal votes in their areas of strength. That said, it’s not realistic to expect a party to lose half their national support and emerge unscathed. While I’ve seen a few claims for potential Lib Dem gains that aren’t completely ludicrous (Watford or Maidstone & the Weald, for example), generally speaking the Liberal Democrat election aim is to limit their inevitable losses as much as they can. This depends upon the demographics and political opponents in their seats, and the incumbency and entrenchment of their individual MPs.
In England and Wales the Liberal Democrats have 46 seats. In eleven Labour are the second placed party, in thirty-four the Conservatives are second placed (though in at least two of them, Sheffield Hallam and Cambridge, Labour are probably the bigger threat) and in Ceredigion Plaid Cymru are second placed. In the vast majority of the seats we have individual polls from Lord Ashcroft to give us an idea of how the race is looking. There are two extremely obvious trends – one is that the Liberal Democrats are collapsing where their main challenger is Labour, but holding up well where the main challenger is the Conservatives. The second is the sheer variation between seats, even within the LD-Con battleground and the LD-Lab battleground.
Ashcroft has polled all the LD/Con marginals that might feasibly change hands. The average swing in these seats was just over 2 points from LD>Con, enough to take about seven seats. However the swings ranged from ten percent LD>CON in Chippenham, to swings of seven percent from CON>LD in Eastbourne and Sutton & Cheam, and in practice this meant ten of the constituency polls had the Conservatives ahead – but these are just snapshot polls with margins of error, so many of these seats are in play. Note also, that many of the polls were last year and the Liberal Democrats have recovered slightly since then.
Looking at the LD-Lab battleground the average swing was a crushing 12 points from LD>Lab, meaning many of these seats are almost nailed on certainties for Labour. The exceptions are Birmingham Yardley, where John Hemming polled surprisingly well, Bermondsey where Simon Hughes was protected by a huge majority, Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam where Labour are coming from third and I expect the Lib Dems will benefit from tactical voting (Ashcroft showed Clegg behind in Hallam, but more recent ICM polling has him ahead). Hornsey and Wood Green is also interesting – the Lib Dem own polling has them doing better there and both the Lib Dems and Labour seem to be targetting it heavily, so it may be much more of a toss up than Ashcroft suggested.
UKIP Targets
There is no easy way to come up with a list of UKIP targets – demographics, local and European election results can give us a steer, so can some of UKIP’s published statements about which seats they are targeting. Realistically though when a party has more than tripled their vote it is hard to accurately judge where their positions of strength and weakness are. The seats below are my best guesses of their most plausible gains (there are other seats where they have strength like Waveney, Great Yarmouth or Redcar that are in the Con-Lab battleground list… but I don’t think they stand much chance of actually winning any others, and constituency polling in some of those seats has shown them on the wane. As to how they will do in these seats – I don’t think any are necessarily easy to call. Everyone assumes Douglas Carswell will hold Clacton given his margin of victory in the by-election, Mark Reckless in Rochester looks more vulnerable. Thurrock looks too close to call, as does Thanet South with its contradictory polling. Great Grimsby was a plausible UKIP gain, but recent polling has Labour with a healthy lead. Polling commissioned by UKIP donor Alan Bown gave them a stonking lead in Boston & Skegness last year, but this year an Ashcroft poll found the Tories ahead. My own guess is that Clacton will probably be a hold, and they have a chance in these other seats… but they won’t strike home in all of them.
And the rest
That leaves a few other interesting seats that don’t fit into any of the main battleground categories, but could change hands. Two are the seats held by smaller parties – I expect the Greens to hold on in Brighton Pavilion (but not gain anywhere else), how George Galloway will do in Bradford West is anyone’s guess. Watford appears to be the only Con-Lab-LD three way marginal that is still a three way marginal for the three parties – it could go either of the three ways.
And so, a prediction
I generally hold to the pollsters’ maxim of snapshot not prediction, so I avoid predictions like the plague for most of the Parliament as the polls may yet change. In 2010 I waited until after the final polls were done before getting off the fence, but it gave me very little time to actually write anything, so this year I’ve done it up front. Obviously if Wednesday’s final polls do show the Conservatives eeking out a small lead I’ll reconsider and make my prediction more Conservative – when the facts change, I changed my mind. As it is though, my personal best guess is Conservatives around 277 seats, Labour around 267, the Lib Dems around 29 and the SNP around 52. I’ll revisit those once we have the final polls.
Reading Tom Clark’s write-up, it looks as though turnout adjustment reduces Labour from 37 to 35, and increases the Conservative vote from 33 to 34.
The d/k reallocation then boosts the Conservatives by another point.
@CATOSWYN
before I go to bed…
CON 273 LAB 274 LD 27 UKIP 2 GRN 1 SNP 52 PC 3
CANDY
When they saw the LibDem vote plummet post the 2010 election, they should have rushed into Lib-Con marginals and established themselves as the replacement for the LibDems as opposition to Conservatives – they had nearly five years to do it. But they didn’t bother – I think they thought the Libs would hang on with tactical votes from Lab people. Big mistake, which means the Cons will sweep the south-west.
___________________________________________________
They could have ‘rushed’ into the South West but as their share of the vote here is so low I’m not sure that even a super-human effort could have established them as the main opposition to the Conservatives.
Just to take an example. In 1997 Labour made a huge effort in the Wells constituency and Michael Eavis (of Glastonbury fame) stood as their candidate. His local profile did raise their vote to c11,000 from c4,000. This at a time when Labour nationally was also doing well. However all it achieved really was that the Conservatives won by a greater margin than usual over the Lib Dems.
The only Labour hopes in the South West are in urban districts.
If they could get any sense of a real connection with rural communities as the SNP seem to have managed in Scotland then maybe Labour could start making some inroads. At the moment it seems unlikely.
@ Candy
When going for the 18-24 vote, they seem to have focused on males via Russell Brand and ignored females.
Women in that age group had Milifandom & Milibae the Movie both of which contained some serious stuff as well as the fun stuff which the media focussed on.
Are there any leftie luvvies on tonight ? I have so enjoyed the “edgy”
comics explaining how the NHS will be sold to Kaiser Health Care of California. As a punchline, the proceeds of flogging “OUR NHS” could be distributed to the 1000 highest paid bankers in the City. Lets do that joke tonight. You guys decide which privileged middle class git, with a mockney accent performs.
New thread on FINAL POLLS
I don’t see many people talking about this factor….
https://www.oxford-royale.co.uk/articles/uk-general-election-2015.html
“The second reason for a likely Labour win is to be found in the electoral system. This is something which the Conservatives have brought on themselves. Whatever the wisdom of the reforms to the House of Lords to which they agreed in conjunction with the Liberal Democrats — and I suspect they would have been unwise – elected peers would, depending on the timing of the electoral cycle, either undermine the authority of the Commons government or give it authority to ride rough-shod over scrutiny – this was a price they promised to Nick Clegg when negotiating the Coalition’s terms of reference. Refusing to honour that pledge led to the blocking of boundary reform that would have redistributed seats from Labour and cut 50 constituencies for a net Tory gain. It is impossible to say whether there would have been less honour in the Conservatives going along with the constitutional atrocity of an elected Lords or in reneging on their word to do so. In either case, they are now hamstrung. Under the existing system, the Conservatives need to win by 11 points for a majority, thanks to the distribution of the Tory vote. Labour needs to win by three for a majority. Even with the reforms, a Conservative government would have to have won by at least seven points.”
Even considering how much Scotland has moved from Labour to the SNP, there is still the fact that northern constituencies are less populated than southern constituencies, and how that plays into Labour’s hands….
PA3YRE
Got that. Sleep tight! :)
I live in a Conservative area, and so my prediction that Labour will do well is not based on who I meet.
Thank you Anthony for all the analysis over the past months and years. Anyone sensible would simply copy your prediction, but that would make for a slightly dull site, and UKPR is just the opposite.
So I will just make a guess, based on factors including shy Labour supporters in Scotland reducing the SNP landslide just a bit; shy Kippers in England hurting Conservatives more than Labour; LD vote holding up better against the Conservatives than against Labour; still the small effect of the unreformed parliamentary boundaries favouring Labour; the fact that the opinion polls before the last election overestimated Conservative support…
Of course I cannot quantify all these factors accurately in terms of seats, and there are other unknowns like who has registered to vote, who has already voted by post and is unaffected by any last minute trends, and of course will older people vote in greater numbers as they have previously.
I am about to have a break from the polls and do something useful like getting in some food and drink before I watch the results coming in tomorrow night, but first here are my predictions.
Labour 325
Cons 224
SNP 45
LD 28
Candy
When going for the 18-24 vote, they seem to have focused on males via Russell Brand and ignored females.
I’m not sure that’s true. Before he did the Brand video he did interviews with SprinkleofGlitter (a beauty vlogger) and Niki ‘n’ Sammy (a comedy act). Both have fanbases predominantly made up of young women.
And of course the #milifandom is mostly young women as well.
OK so I have kept you waiting long enough for my predictions but first of all a big thank you to AW for the site.
Here are the predictions from Aberdeenshire:
Cons – not quite enough
Lab – just about enough
SNP – shedloads. ( A spokesperson said: Ms Sturgeon will be available for discussions strictly by appointment [ and yes you can take a selfie with her if you want].
LDs – a large minibus load. ( A spokesman said: please, please,talk to us. Anybody except the beastly SNP. Please.)
UKIP – a Robin Reliant load.( A spokesperson said: we was robbed)
PC – not too many ( A spokesperson said: it doesn’t matter just remember we are friends of Nicola.)
Greens – one ( A spokesperson said: just remember its been a bad night for us but a worse one for rabbits throughout the UK).
NI parties – 18 ish or about £1bn worth depending on who is asking.
“but b) just like the old data :(”
The seat forecast looks identical.
Do we know for sure what data they use? I think a poster last night was saying that it always moved in line with the Ashcroft marginal polls – but that doesn’t seem to have happened here
Chris Lane
I think Kinnock believed he had won. I remember the start of the BBC coverage on election night. They had the Kinnock’s in the studio and the cameras panned to their faces at the point Dimblebey pronounced the exit poll suggested it was too tight to call. They looked crestfallen. Little did they know it that poll was kind for them and the cold reality of a Major majority became clear some hours later.
More details from the ICM poll – issues which influence voting choice;
79% – the future of the NHS
57% – looming public expenditure cuts
51% – squeezed living standards
48% – the deficit
46% – future tax rises
39% – fears of the next government being held to ransom by smaller parties.
Top three issues are all more favourable to Labour
=======================================
It could be favourable to Labour. I could be wrong.
In the world on investment, when we analyse investments with human sentiment and confidence indicators, we see lack of correlation, at times between sentiment and confidence index’s relative to expenditure, how much people actually spending.
New Cars sales, best month this century with nearly half a million, 492,774, cars registered in March, up 6.0% on same month last year.
Based on parameters required by the pollster, what are you main concerns.
People have indicated x, y, z etc
If you give set parameters of concern, people will just go for the obvious ones.
Do these parameters have any bearing, I will leave that to everyone’s own ideology.
NHS is important, saying that people are more concerned about the money is in their pocket right now, than NHS.
People are more concerned:
1) Are they going to get paid more next year, and where their next holiday is.
2) Buying nice clothes, going out and having a few beers.
If the nation was that concerned about the NHS, they would be leaving £ Billions in legacy’s to the NHS, donating hundreds of millions to the NHS, because they have that extra passion for the NHS, by gift aid.
How they vote is completely different.
Yes I am concerned about the NHS, my farther had cancer, over the years he received the best care and treatment. In the latter stages, he was in hospital, I cannot other than complement the Doctors and Nurses, for the care and aftercare, that my farther received. It was second to none.
I will use one of my favourite Warren Buffet quotes “In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long term, it is a weighing machine.”
What matters in the long run is a company’s actual underlying business performance and not the investing public’s fickle opinion about its prospects in the short run.
The above quotes can be interpreted in any manner one likes. I will leave it to your discretion :-)
Michael Siva
My daughter’s just boarded the train back to her university in Sussex, so that she can vote in Brighton…she’s assured me that Greens will at least win in Brighton – lol!
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Take my hat off to her.
Mike Smithson ?@MSmithsonPB
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from ICM poll
CON 36.5%
LAB 36.7%
LD 7.9%
UKIP 12.9%
A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.2%
A lot of seats for Tories with a swing like that
NeilJ
“As a non resident myself I have no choice as to my status as I work abroad for 12 months, but I still pay UK tax on my UK pension, as well as property income.”
That’s because your pension is a government pension (civil service, teachers etc). I pay all my tax in France as my private pensions are non government. And I pay about half the tax I would in the UK as I get full nil & 6.5% band rate allowance for my wife who has no income. Property doesn’t come into it as I am not wealthy enough to have retained a house in the UK.
Interestingly that doesn’t give me the right to vote in the national elections here, to do that you have to become a French Citizen and I have no intention of doing that. I’m content with being French resident. I can vote in local elections although never have, as it’s not my role to tell the French what to do. I am a guest in their country. At least till 2017.
However, I have very close ties with England, I lived there for 55 years, paid tax & NI all my working life and will shortly receive the OAP. I therefore feel it is my right to vote there and by the same token it should be the right of any Scotsman to vote in a Scottish referendum.
My prediction, for what it’s worth…
Conservatives – 280
Labour – 265
SNP – 55
Lib Dems – 25
DUP – 9
Sinn Fein – 5
Plaid Cymru – 4
SDLP – 3
UKIP – 2
Green Party – 1
Independent – 1
(I’ve including the Speaker under the Conservatives but the estimates for the big 4 are only rough estimates anyhow)
I will be in Nuneaton tomorrow helping out the Labour campaign, so I probably won’t be able to post anything, but if possible I will try and give an idea of the state of play on the ground, on polling day.
@ Catsowyn
Labour 273
Conservative 269
SNP 48
LD 26
UKIP 8
DUP 8
Plaid Cymru 4
Sinn Fein 4
SDLP 3
Green 2
Alliance 1
Respect 1
UUP 1
Lady Herman 1
Speaker 1
@Amber – “Women in that age group had Milifandom & Milibae the Movie both of which contained some serious stuff as well as the fun stuff which the media focussed on.”
Milifandom etc were for under 18’s. Stuff that appeals to teen girls and stuff that appeals to young women are two separate things. It sums up the problem that Lab doesn’t understand that there is a vast difference between a 17 year old and a 21 year old, but not much difference between a 21 year old and a 24 year old.
The Number Cruncher Analysis of the Shy Tories is a definite must-read.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
It is nine pages of depressing reading for Labour supporters like me and its conclusion is that the Conservatives are really leading by over 6 points.
If that is true I am glad that I am being prepared for the bad news.
Isn’t there likely to be even more of a shy UKIP effect though? But I guess these days that might drain support from both of the main parties about equally.
Somewhat later than hoped, I have finished the CSV I promised linking the PA declaration times with AW’s seats to watch above, plus as suggested last night I have highlighted Lab seats with small majorities which could indicate Lab having a bad night.
The full CSV is 651 lines, so I will post in 13×50 line chunks, with only the first having an extra header line.
The chunks should paste into any spreadsheet editor.
Header + 1st 50 declarations
Time,Category,Seat,2010,2nd,Majority%,N
00:00,,Houghton & Sunderland South,Lab,Con,28.91,320
00:00,,Newcastle upon Tyne Central,Lab,LD,21.86,414
00:00,,Newcastle upon Tyne East,Lab,LD,11.77,415
00:00,,Newcastle upon Tyne North,Lab,LD,7.77,416
00:00,,Washington & Sunderland West,Lab,Con,30.69,603
00:01,,Sunderland Central,Lab,Con,15.84,551
00:30,,Durham North West,Lab,LD,17.37,216
01:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Nuneaton,Con,Lab,4.63,435
01:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Dagenham & Rainham,Lab,Con,5.95,175
01:00,,Antrim North,DUP,TUV,29.62,14
01:00,,Durham North,Lab,Con,29.48,215
01:00,,Foyle,SDLP,SF,12.73,255
01:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Darlington,Lab,Con,7.90,176
01:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Vale of Clwyd,Lab,Con,7.06,588
01:30,,”Durham, City of”,Lab,LD,6.63,214
01:30,,Easington,Lab,LD,42.91,221
01:30,,Lagan Valley,DUP,UCUNF,28.70,347
01:30,,Na h-Eileanan an Iar,SNP,Lab,12.81,407
01:30,,Tyrone West,SF,DUP,28.67,584
01:30,,Upper Bann,DUP,UCUNF,8.12,586
02:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Battersea,Con,Lab,12.25,38
02:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South,Con,Lab,8.45,132
02:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Northampton North,Con,Lab,4.81,427
02:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Tooting,Lab,Con,4.98,574
02:00,LD defence?,Eastleigh,LD,Con,7.20,226
02:00,PC Target,Ynys Mon,Lab,PC,7.14,647
02:00,SNP?,”East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow”,Lab,SNP,28.47,223
02:00,SNP?,Fife North East,LD,Con,22.58,250
02:00,SNP?,Glenrothes,Lab,SNP,40.61,269
02:00,SNP?,Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath,Lab,SNP,50.24,345
02:00,SNP?,Lanark & Hamilton East,Lab,SNP,28.95,348
02:00,SNP?,Rutherglen & Hamilton West,Lab,SNP,44.70,487
02:00,UKIP?,Castle Point,Con,GB,16.95,134
02:00,,Angus,SNP,Con,8.65,12
02:00,,Antrim East,DUP,UCUNF,22.20,13
02:00,,Barking,Lab,Con,36.51,28
02:00,,Belfast East,Alliance,DUP,4.45,45
02:00,,Belfast North,DUP,SF,6.01,46
02:00,,Belfast South,SDLP,DUP,17.33,47
02:00,,Belfast West,SF,SDLP,54.71,48
02:00,,Bishop Auckland,Lab,Con,12.68,66
02:00,,Blaenau Gwent,Lab,BV,32.46,71
02:00,,Broxbourne,Con,Lab,41.18,106
02:00,,Canterbury,Con,LD,12.29,125
02:00,,Carmarthen East & Dinefwr,PC,Lab,9.16,131
02:00,,Chelmsford,Con,LD,9.36,139
02:00,,Chesham & Amersham,Con,LD,31.86,142
02:00,,Christchurch,Con,LD,31.18,150
02:00,,Down North,Ind,UCUNF,42.90,202
02:00,,Dwyfor Meirionnydd,PC,Con,22.03,217
declarations 51-100
02:00,,Epping Forest,Con,LD,32.48,239
02:00,,Halton,Lab,Con,37.51,285
02:00,,Llanelli,Lab,PC,12.55,375
02:00,,Northampton South,Con,Lab,15.40,428
02:00,,Oxford East,Lab,LD,8.87,443
02:00,,Putney,Con,Lab,24.65,462
02:00,,Staffordshire South,Con,Lab,32.89,530
02:00,,Strangford,DUP,UCUNF,18.08,542
02:00,,Surrey East,Con,LD,30.88,552
02:00,,Tamworth,Con,Lab,13.13,562
02:15,LD defence?,Thornbury & Yate,LD,Con,14.76,570
02:30,Con/Lab Marginal,”Chester, City of”,Con,Lab,5.52,143
02:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Cleethorpes,Con,Lab,9.56,153
02:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Kingswood,Con,Lab,5.10,344
02:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Westminster North,Lab,Con,5.37,615
02:30,Lab/LD Marginal,Rochdale,Lab,LD,1.94,474
02:30,LD defence?,Yeovil,LD,Con,22.81,646
02:30,SNP?,Dundee West,Lab,SNP,19.60,212
02:30,SNP?,Inverclyde,Lab,SNP,38.47,330
02:30,SNP?,Kilmarnock & Loudoun,Lab,SNP,26.59,342
02:30,SNP?,Stirling,Lab,Con,17.85,533
02:30,,Antrim South,DUP,UCUNF,3.48,15
02:30,,Cities of London & Westminster,Con,Lab,29.99,151
02:30,,Devon East,Con,LD,17.17,189
02:30,,Dundee East,SNP,Lab,4.49,211
02:30,,Eddisbury,Con,LD,29.19,227
02:30,,Ellesmere Port & Neston,Lab,Con,9.79,234
02:30,,Filton & Bradley Stoke,Con,Lab,14.31,251
02:30,,Hampshire East,Con,LD,26.30,287
02:30,,Hartlepool,Lab,Con,14.41,296
02:30,,Hemel Hempstead,Con,LD,27.10,302
02:30,,Hertford & Stortford,Con,LD,27.88,308
02:30,,Islington North,Lab,LD,27.83,334
02:30,,Islington South & Finsbury,Lab,LD,8.19,335
02:30,,Leicestershire North West,Con,Lab,14.46,359
02:30,,Lichfield,Con,LD,34.29,367
02:30,,Ludlow,Con,LD,20.01,379
02:30,,Makerfield,Lab,Con,28.53,385
02:30,,Mitcham & Morden,Lab,Con,31.20,399
02:30,,Montgomeryshire,Con,LD,3.50,402
02:30,,Newbury,Con,LD,20.90,412
02:30,,Wimbledon,Con,LD,24.07,621
02:30,,Workington,Lab,Con,11.65,636
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Aberconwy,Con,Lab,11.34,2
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Amber Valley,Con,Lab,1.17,11
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Bedford,Con,Lab,3.00,41
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Bury North,Con,Lab,4.99,111
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Carlisle,Con,Lab,2.02,130
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Croydon Central,Con,Lab,5.97,170
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Erewash,Con,Lab,5.25,241
declarations 101-150
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Hastings & Rye,Con,Lab,4.00,298
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,High Peak,Con,Lab,9.29,314
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Peterborough,Con,Lab,10.82,451
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stafford,Con,Lab,10.87,528
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stockton South,Con,Lab,0.66,536
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Swindon South,Con,Lab,7.52,561
03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Vale of Glamorgan,Con,Lab,8.85,589
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Alyn & Deeside,Lab,Con,7.31,10
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Bolton West,Lab,Con,0.19,78
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Bury South,Lab,Con,6.82,112
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Delyn,Lab,Con,6.14,179
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Derby North,Lab,Con,1.36,181
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Derbyshire North East,Lab,Con,5.20,185
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Exeter,Lab,Con,5.21,244
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Gedling,Lab,Con,3.86,260
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Gower,Lab,Con,6.44,273
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Hampstead & Kilburn,Lab,Con,0.08,290
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East,Lab,Con,3.63,395
03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Telford,Lab,Con,2.37,565
03:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Hull North,Lab,LD,1.93,324
03:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Swansea West,Lab,LD,1.42,559
03:00,LD defence?,Bermondsey & Old Southwark,LD,Lab,19.10,49
03:00,LD defence?,Brecon & Radnorshire,LD,Con,9.65,89
03:00,LD defence?,Brent Central,LD,Lab,2.97,90
03:00,LD defence?,Bristol West,LD,Lab,20.54,102
03:00,LD defence?,Hornsey & Wood Green,LD,Lab,12.49,318
03:00,LD defence?,Kingston & Surbiton,LD,Con,13.24,343
03:00,LD defence?,Solihull,LD,Con,0.32,516
03:00,SNP?,Airdrie & Shotts,Lab,SNP,34.61,6
03:00,SNP?,Argyll & Bute,LD,Con,7.59,17
03:00,SNP?,”Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill”,Lab,SNP,49.75,156
03:00,SNP?,Dunbartonshire East,LD,Lab,4.55,209
03:00,SNP?,Dunfermline & Fife West,Lab,LD,11.18,213
03:00,SNP?,East Lothian,Lab,Con,24.93,224
03:00,SNP?,Falkirk,Lab,SNP,15.45,245
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow Central,Lab,SNP,34.50,262
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow East,Lab,SNP,36.81,263
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow North,Lab,LD,13.16,264
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow North East,Lab,SNP,54.21,265
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow North West,Lab,LD,38.25,266
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow South,Lab,SNP,31.57,267
03:00,SNP?,Glasgow South West,Lab,SNP,46.16,268
03:00,SNP?,Motherwell & Wishaw,Lab,SNP,42.96,406
03:00,SNP?,Ochil & Perthshire South,Lab,SNP,10.28,436
03:00,SNP?,Paisley & Renfrewshire North,Lab,SNP,34.96,445
03:00,SNP?,Paisley & Renfrewshire South,Lab,SNP,41.54,446
03:00,SNP?,Renfrewshire East,Lab,Con,20.36,469
03:00,UKIP?,Basildon South & Thurrock East,Con,Lab,12.90,33
03:00,UKIP?,Thurrock,Con,Lab,0.20,571
declarations 151-200
03:00,,Aberavon,Lab,LD,35.66,1
03:00,,Arfon,PC,Lab,5.58,16
03:00,,Barnsley Central,Lab,LD,29.98,29
03:00,,Barnsley East,Lab,LD,28.89,30
03:00,,Bolsover,Lab,Con,25.42,75
03:00,,Bolton North East,Lab,Con,9.44,76
03:00,,Bolton South East,Lab,Con,21.80,77
03:00,,Bosworth,Con,LD,9.27,81
03:00,,Bracknell,Con,LD,30.12,84
03:00,,Brent North,Lab,Con,15.35,91
03:00,,Bristol North West,Con,LD,6.50,100
03:00,,Bury St Edmunds,Con,LD,21.08,113
03:00,,Camberwell & Peckham,Lab,LD,36.84,117
03:00,,Clwyd South,Lab,Con,8.17,154
03:00,,Clwyd West,Con,Lab,16.84,155
03:00,,Copeland,Lab,Con,8.96,160
03:00,,Croydon North,Lab,Con,31.90,171
03:00,,Croydon South,Con,LD,28.08,172
03:00,,Derby South,Lab,Con,14.86,182
03:00,,Derbyshire Mid,Con,Lab,23.85,184
03:00,,Derbyshire South,Con,Lab,14.14,186
03:00,,Fylde,Con,LD,30.18,256
03:00,,Harrogate & Knaresborough,Con,LD,1.96,293
03:00,,Havant,Con,LD,27.70,299
03:00,,Hertfordshire South West,Con,LD,26.29,310
03:00,,Holborn & St Pancras,Lab,LD,18.19,316
03:00,,Hull East,Lab,LD,25.15,323
03:00,,Hull West & Hessle,Lab,LD,18.23,325
03:00,,Huntingdon,Con,LD,19.94,326
03:00,,Isle of Wight,Con,LD,14.98,333
03:00,,Jarrow,Lab,Con,33.28,337
03:00,,Knowsley,Lab,LD,57.52,346
03:00,,Londonderry East,DUP,SF,15.32,376
03:00,,Maldon,Con,LD,40.52,386
03:00,,Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney,Lab,LD,12.64,393
03:00,,Moray,SNP,Con,13.63,403
03:00,,Neath,Lab,PC,26.33,408
03:00,,Newport East,Lab,LD,4.79,417
03:00,,Newport West,Lab,Con,8.92,418
03:00,,Norfolk Mid,Con,LD,27.29,421
03:00,,Perth & Perthshire North,SNP,Con,9.07,450
03:00,,Preston,Lab,LD,23.79,460
03:00,,Ribble Valley,Con,Lab,28.25,471
03:00,,Rother Valley,Lab,Con,12.55,481
03:00,,Rotherham,Lab,Con,27.89,482
03:00,,Rushcliffe,Con,LD,29.45,486
03:00,,Skipton & Ripon,Con,LD,18.18,513
03:00,,Sleaford & North Hykeham,Con,LD,33.44,514
03:00,,Slough,Lab,Con,11.57,515
03:00,,Somerset North,Con,LD,13.57,517
03:00,,South Shields,Lab,Con,30.42,522
declarations 201-250
03:00,,Stockton North,Lab,Con,16.90,535
03:00,,Stone,Con,LD,28.14,540
03:00,,Suffolk West,Con,LD,27.14,550
03:00,,Swansea East,Lab,LD,33.17,558
03:00,,Swindon North,Con,Lab,14.04,560
03:00,,Wellingborough,Con,Lab,22.82,608
03:00,,Welwyn Hatfield,Con,Lab,35.58,610
03:00,,Wentworth & Dearne,Lab,Con,33.06,611
03:00,,Windsor,Con,LD,38.42,623
03:00,,Wrexham,Lab,LD,11.09,641
03:00,,Wycombe,Con,LD,19.85,642
03:00,,Wyre & Preston North,Con,LD,30.88,643
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Blackpool North & Cleveleys,Con,Lab,5.30,69
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Dover,Con,Lab,10.47,201
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Enfield North,Con,Lab,3.81,237
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Harlow,Con,Lab,11.22,292
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Lincoln,Con,Lab,2.31,368
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Loughborough,Con,Lab,7.09,377
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,South Ribble,Con,Lab,10.79,521
03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Weaver Vale,Con,Lab,2.25,607
03:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Blackpool South,Lab,Con,5.26,70
03:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Walsall North,Lab,Con,2.74,593
03:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Walsall South,Lab,Con,4.29,594
03:30,LD defence?,Burnley,LD,Lab,4.34,109
03:30,LD defence?,Cheltenham,LD,Con,9.32,141
03:30,SNP?,Dunbartonshire West,Lab,SNP,41.19,210
03:30,SNP?,Linlithgow & Falkirk East,Lab,SNP,24.40,369
03:30,SNP?,Livingston,Lab,SNP,22.52,374
03:30,SNP?,Midlothian,Lab,SNP,26.37,396
03:30,UKIP?,Great Grimsby,Lab,Con,2.17,276
03:30,,Aldridge-Brownhills,Con,Lab,39.51,8
03:30,,Bassetlaw,Lab,Con,16.57,35
03:30,,Beckenham,Con,LD,37.29,40
03:30,,Bedfordshire Mid,Con,LD,27.60,42
03:30,,Bedfordshire South West,Con,LD,32.79,44
03:30,,Blaydon,Lab,LD,20.30,72
03:30,,Bournemouth East,Con,LD,17.55,82
03:30,,Bournemouth West,Con,LD,13.40,83
03:30,,Bromley & Chislehurst,Con,LD,31.56,104
03:30,,Cambridgeshire North West,Con,LD,28.61,121
03:30,,Cambridgeshire South,Con,LD,13.27,122
03:30,,Charnwood,Con,LD,28.07,136
03:30,,”Cotswolds, The”,Con,LD,23.46,164
03:30,,Down South,SDLP,SF,19.75,203
03:30,,Dulwich & West Norwood,Lab,LD,19.42,206
03:30,,East Ham,Lab,Con,55.24,222
03:30,,Edmonton,Lab,Con,23.81,233
03:30,,Enfield Southgate,Con,Lab,17.19,238
03:30,,Gosport,Con,LD,30.71,272
03:30,,Newry & Armagh,SF,SDLP,18.55,419
declarations 251-300
03:30,,Orpington,Con,LD,35.17,442
03:30,,Rayleigh & Wickford,Con,LD,42.68,463
03:30,,Reigate,Con,LD,27.19,468
03:30,,Streatham,Lab,LD,6.96,544
03:30,,Suffolk Coastal,Con,LD,16.63,548
03:30,,Surrey Heath,Con,LD,31.81,553
03:30,,Thirsk & Malton,Con,LD,29.60,569
03:30,,Torfaen,Lab,Con,24.72,576
03:30,,Ulster Mid,SF,DUP,37.62,585
03:30,,Vauxhall,Lab,LD,24.66,590
03:30,,Warley,Lab,Con,28.11,598
03:30,,West Bromwich East,Lab,Con,17.64,612
03:30,,West Bromwich West,Lab,Con,15.62,613
03:30,,West Ham,Lab,Con,47.99,614
03:30,,Worcestershire Mid,Con,LD,31.15,634
03:30,,”Wrekin, The”,Con,Lab,20.56,640
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Broxtowe,Con,Lab,0.74,107
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Cannock Chase,Con,Lab,7.01,124
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Dudley South,Con,Lab,10.10,205
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Gloucester,Con,Lab,4.77,270
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Harrow East,Con,Lab,7.09,294
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Ipswich,Con,Lab,4.43,332
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Pendle,Con,Lab,7.96,447
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Plymouth Sutton & Devonport,Con,Lab,2.62,453
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Preseli Pembrokeshire,Con,Lab,11.63,459
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stroud,Con,Lab,2.24,546
04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Warwickshire North,Con,Lab,0.11,602
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Bridgend,Lab,Con,5.90,94
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Dudley North,Lab,Con,1.68,204
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Eltham,Lab,Con,3.96,236
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Hammersmith,Lab,Con,7.48,286
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Harrow West,Lab,Con,6.82,295
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Luton South,Lab,Con,5.52,381
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Newcastle-under-Lyme,Lab,Con,3.59,413
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Nottingham South,Lab,Con,4.34,434
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Penistone & Stocksbridge,Lab,Con,6.55,448
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Plymouth Moor View,Lab,Con,3.82,452
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Southampton Itchen,Lab,Con,0.43,523
04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Southampton Test,Lab,Con,5.46,524
04:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Ashfield,Lab,LD,0.40,19
04:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Chesterfield,Lab,LD,1.20,144
04:00,LD defence?,Carshalton & Wallington,LD,Con,11.46,133
04:00,LD defence?,Devon North,LD,Con,11.34,190
04:00,LD defence?,Eastbourne,LD,Con,6.59,225
04:00,LD defence?,Lewes,LD,Con,15.27,362
04:00,LD defence?,Norfolk North,LD,Con,23.41,422
04:00,LD defence?,Sutton & Cheam,LD,Con,3.31,556
04:00,LD defence?,Twickenham,LD,Con,20.33,581
04:00,LD defence?,Westmorland & Lonsdale,LD,Con,23.82,616
04:00,PC Target,Ceredigion,LD,PC,21.76,135
declarations 301-350
04:00,SNP?,Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine,LD,Con,8.15,5
04:00,SNP?,”Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock”,Lab,Con,21.60,23
04:00,SNP?,Ayrshire Central,Lab,Con,27.34,24
04:00,SNP?,Ayrshire North & Arran,Lab,SNP,21.46,25
04:00,SNP?,”Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East”,Lab,SNP,33.43,173
04:00,SNP?,Dumfries & Galloway,Lab,Con,14.28,207
04:00,SNP?,”Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale”,Con,Lab,9.14,208
04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh East,Lab,SNP,23.03,228
04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh North & Leith,Lab,LD,3.64,229
04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh South,Lab,LD,0.72,230
04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh South West,Lab,Con,18.58,231
04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh West,LD,Lab,8.19,232
04:00,SNP?,Orkney & Shetland,LD,Lab,51.32,441
04:00,,Aldershot,Con,LD,12.31,7
04:00,,Banff & Buchan,SNP,Con,10.47,27
04:00,,Barrow & Furness,Lab,Con,11.80,31
04:00,,Basildon & Billericay,Con,Lab,29.68,32
04:00,,Bedfordshire North East,Con,LD,34.10,43
04:00,,Bexleyheath & Crayford,Con,Lab,23.95,55
04:00,,Birmingham Ladywood,Lab,LD,28.20,61
04:00,,Blackburn,Lab,Con,21.66,67
04:00,,Braintree,Con,Lab,32.76,88
04:00,,Brentwood & Ongar,Con,LD,33.45,93
04:00,,Bridgwater & Somerset West,Con,LD,16.97,95
04:00,,Bristol East,Lab,Con,8.27,99
04:00,,Bristol South,Lab,LD,9.79,101
04:00,,Bromsgrove,Con,Lab,21.90,105
04:00,,Caerphilly,Lab,Con,27.58,114
04:00,,Cambridgeshire North East,Con,LD,31.43,120
04:00,,Chelsea & Fulham,Con,Lab,41.96,140
04:00,,Chichester,Con,LD,27.96,145
04:00,,Crawley,Con,Lab,12.48,168
04:00,,Dartford,Con,Lab,21.22,177
04:00,,Derbyshire Dales,Con,LD,29.64,183
04:00,,Devon South West,Con,LD,31.84,191
04:00,,Devon West & Torridge,Con,LD,5.35,192
04:00,,Don Valley,Lab,Con,8.28,194
04:00,,Doncaster Central,Lab,Con,14.92,195
04:00,,Doncaster North,Lab,Con,26.30,196
04:00,,Dorset West,Con,LD,6.84,200
04:00,,Epsom & Ewell,Con,LD,29.36,240
04:00,,Erith & Thamesmead,Lab,Con,13.43,242
04:00,,Esher & Walton,Con,LD,34.09,243
04:00,,Fareham,Con,LD,31.45,246
04:00,,Folkestone & Hythe,Con,LD,19.17,253
04:00,,Garston & Halewood,Lab,LD,39.41,258
04:00,,Gateshead,Lab,LD,32.80,259
04:00,,Greenwich & Woolwich,Lab,Con,24.65,278
04:00,,Guildford,Con,LD,14.00,279
04:00,,Hackney North & Stoke Newington,Lab,LD,31.11,280
declarations 351-400
04:00,,Hackney South & Shoreditch,Lab,LD,33.34,281
04:00,,Hampshire North West,Con,LD,34.87,289
04:00,,Harborough,Con,LD,17.83,291
04:00,,Hereford & Herefordshire South,Con,LD,5.13,306
04:00,,Hertsmere,Con,Lab,37.24,311
04:00,,Heywood & Middleton,Lab,Con,12.95,313
04:00,,Islwyn,Lab,Con,35.21,336
04:00,,Kettering,Con,Lab,19.21,341
04:00,,Leigh,Lab,Con,27.09,361
04:00,,Lewisham Deptford,Lab,LD,30.32,363
04:00,,Lewisham East,Lab,LD,14.90,364
04:00,,Lewisham West & Penge,Lab,LD,12.94,365
04:00,,Luton North,Lab,Con,17.48,380
04:00,,Maidenhead,Con,LD,31.22,383
04:00,,Mansfield,Lab,Con,12.42,390
04:00,,Meriden,Con,Lab,31.16,392
04:00,,Monmouth,Con,Lab,22.41,401
04:00,,New Forest East,Con,LD,22.60,409
04:00,,Newark,Con,Lab,31.53,411
04:00,,Northamptonshire South,Con,LD,34.19,429
04:00,,Nottingham East,Lab,LD,21.05,432
04:00,,Nottingham North,Lab,Con,23.74,433
04:00,,Ogmore,Lab,Con,38.23,437
04:00,,Old Bexley & Sidcup,Con,Lab,34.86,438
04:00,,Penrith & The Border,Con,LD,24.93,449
04:00,,Redditch,Con,Lab,13.22,467
04:00,,Richmond Park,Con,LD,6.90,473
04:00,,Rochford & Southend East,Con,Lab,26.54,476
04:00,,Romsey & Southampton North,Con,LD,8.49,478
04:00,,Runnymede & Weybridge,Con,LD,34.29,485
04:00,,Saffron Walden,Con,LD,28.03,489
04:00,,Scarborough & Whitby,Con,Lab,16.50,497
04:00,,Selby & Ainsty,Con,Lab,23.71,501
04:00,,Sevenoaks,Con,LD,35.45,502
04:00,,Southend West,Con,LD,16.67,525
04:00,,Spelthorne,Con,LD,21.18,527
04:00,,Staffordshire Moorlands,Con,Lab,15.27,529
04:00,,Suffolk Central & Ipswich North,Con,LD,25.81,547
04:00,,Suffolk South,Con,LD,16.90,549
04:00,,Surrey South West,Con,LD,28.50,554
04:00,,Sussex Mid,Con,LD,13.25,555
04:00,,Sutton Coldfield,Con,Lab,33.61,557
04:00,,Tottenham,Lab,LD,41.61,578
04:00,,Tunbridge Wells,Con,LD,30.95,580
04:00,,Wealden,Con,LD,31.25,606
04:00,,Weston-Super-Mare,Con,LD,5.10,617
04:00,,Wigan,Lab,Con,23.76,618
04:00,,Wiltshire South West,Con,LD,21.15,620
04:00,,Witham,Con,LD,32.45,626
04:00,,Woking,Con,LD,12.90,628
declarations 401-450
04:00,,Worcestershire West,Con,LD,12.49,635
04:00,,Wyre Forest,Con,Ind CHC,5.19,644
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Brigg & Goole,Con,Lab,11.73,96
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Corby,Con,Lab,3.49,161
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Crewe & Nantwich,Con,Lab,11.84,169
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Dewsbury,Con,Lab,2.83,193
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Elmet & Rothwell,Con,Lab,8.10,235
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Ilford North,Con,Lab,11.49,328
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Norwich North,Con,Lab,9.16,430
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Pudsey,Con,Lab,3.38,461
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Stevenage,Con,Lab,8.01,532
04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Wolverhampton South West,Con,Lab,1.72,632
04:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Morley & Outwood,Lab,Con,2.25,405
04:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Scunthorpe,Lab,Con,6.88,498
04:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Wolverhampton North East,Lab,Con,7.12,630
04:30,Lab/LD Marginal,Sheffield Central,Lab,LD,0.40,504
04:30,LD defence?,Cheadle,LD,Con,6.23,138
04:30,LD defence?,Chippenham,LD,Con,4.72,147
04:30,LD defence?,Colchester,LD,Con,15.13,157
04:30,LD defence?,Hazel Grove,LD,Con,15.18,301
04:30,LD defence?,Leeds North West,LD,Con,20.93,354
04:30,LD defence?,Norwich South,LD,Lab,0.65,431
04:30,LD defence?,Redcar,LD,Lab,12.43,466
04:30,LD defence?,Sheffield Hallam,LD,Con,29.89,505
04:30,LD defence?,Somerton & Frome,LD,Con,3.00,519
04:30,SNP?,”Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk”,LD,Con,11.58,51
04:30,SNP?,Gordon,LD,SNP,13.83,271
04:30,UKIP?,Clacton,Con,Lab,27.99,152
04:30,,Arundel & South Downs,Con,LD,29.81,18
04:30,,Banbury,Con,LD,32.41,26
04:30,,Batley & Spen,Lab,Con,8.62,37
04:30,,Bexhill & Battle,Con,LD,23.60,54
04:30,,Birmingham Erdington,Lab,Con,9.22,58
04:30,,Chipping Barnet,Con,Lab,23.57,148
04:30,,Colne Valley,Con,LD,8.75,158
04:30,,Congleton,Con,LD,13.91,159
04:30,,Daventry,Con,LD,37.06,178
04:30,,Devizes,Con,LD,28.06,187
04:30,,Gravesham,Con,Lab,19.69,275
04:30,,Harwich & Essex North,Con,LD,23.36,297
04:30,,Hertfordshire North East,Con,LD,30.13,309
04:30,,Horsham,Con,LD,20.52,319
04:30,,Huddersfield,Lab,Con,11.04,322
04:30,,Ilford South,Lab,Con,22.05,329
04:30,,Kensington,Con,Lab,24.51,340
04:30,,Lancashire West,Lab,Con,8.96,349
04:30,,Leeds Central,Lab,LD,28.47,351
04:30,,Leeds East,Lab,Con,27.22,352
04:30,,Leeds North East,Lab,Con,9.56,353
04:30,,Leeds West,Lab,LD,18.10,355
declarations 451-500
04:30,,Leicestershire South,Con,LD,28.44,360
04:30,,Middlesbrough,Lab,LD,25.97,394
04:30,,Mole Valley,Con,LD,28.81,400
04:30,,Newton Abbot,Con,LD,1.08,420
04:30,,Norfolk South,Con,LD,19.89,424
04:30,,Salisbury,Con,LD,12.31,496
04:30,,Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough,Lab,LD,35.03,503
04:30,,Sheffield Heeley,Lab,LD,14.21,506
04:30,,Sheffield South East,Lab,LD,25.37,507
04:30,,Shrewsbury & Atcham,Con,LD,14.98,510
04:30,,Stockport,Lab,Con,17.34,534
04:30,,Totnes,Con,LD,10.30,577
04:30,,Tynemouth,Lab,Con,10.90,582
04:30,,Tyneside North,Lab,LD,27.76,583
04:30,,Wiltshire North,Con,LD,15.37,619
04:30,,Witney,Con,LD,39.36,627
04:30,,Wolverhampton South East,Lab,Con,19.00,631
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Brentford & Isleworth,Con,Lab,3.64,92
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Brighton Kemptown,Con,Lab,3.11,97
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Calder Valley,Con,Lab,12.42,116
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Ealing Central & Acton,Con,Lab,7.87,218
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Finchley & Golders Green,Con,Lab,12.32,252
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Halesowen & Rowley Regis,Con,Lab,4.60,282
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Hendon,Con,Lab,0.23,304
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Hove,Con,Lab,3.75,321
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Keighley,Con,Lab,6.16,338
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Rossendale & Darwen,Con,Lab,9.53,480
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Sherwood,Con,Lab,0.44,508
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Somerset North East,Con,Lab,9.60,518
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stourbridge,Con,Lab,10.93,541
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Warrington South,Con,Lab,2.83,600
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Wirral West,Con,Lab,6.19,625
05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Worcester,Con,Lab,6.09,633
05:00,Galloway?,Bradford West,Lab,Con,14.20,87
05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Birmingham Northfield,Lab,Con,6.65,62
05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Chorley,Lab,Con,5.21,149
05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Hyndburn,Lab,Con,7.24,327
05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Sefton Central,Lab,Con,7.97,500
05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Wakefield,Lab,Con,3.63,591
05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Wirral South,Lab,Con,1.33,624
05:00,LD defence?,Bath,LD,Con,25.24,36
05:00,LD defence?,Birmingham Yardley,LD,Lab,7.35,65
05:00,LD defence?,Bradford East,LD,Lab,0.90,85
05:00,LD defence?,Cambridge,LD,Con,13.55,119
05:00,LD defence?,Dorset Mid & Poole North,LD,Con,0.57,197
05:00,LD defence?,Southport,LD,Con,13.77,526
05:00,LD defence?,Taunton Deane,LD,Con,6.87,564
05:00,LD defence?,Torbay,LD,Con,8.29,575
05:00,SNP?,”Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross”,LD,Lab,16.78,115
05:00,SNP?,”Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey”,LD,Lab,18.61,331
declarations 501-550
05:00,UKIP?,Boston & Skegness,Con,Lab,28.81,80
05:00,UKIP?,Rochester & Strood,Con,Lab,20.75,475
05:00,,Altrincham & Sale West,Con,LD,23.47,9
05:00,,Ashford,Con,LD,31.34,20
05:00,,Beaconsfield,Con,LD,41.50,39
05:00,,Bethnal Green & Bow,Lab,LD,22.82,52
05:00,,Beverley & Holderness,Con,LD,24.41,53
05:00,,Birkenhead,Lab,Con,43.58,56
05:00,,Bootle,Lab,LD,51.31,79
05:00,,Bradford South,Lab,Con,12.16,86
05:00,,Brighton Pavilion,Green,Lab,2.42,98
05:00,,Burton,Con,Lab,12.65,110
05:00,,Chatham & Aylesford,Con,Lab,13.85,137
05:00,,Chingford & Woodford Green,Con,Lab,30.07,146
05:00,,Coventry North East,Lab,Con,27.14,165
05:00,,Coventry North West,Lab,Con,13.51,166
05:00,,Coventry South,Lab,Con,8.37,167
05:00,,Cynon Valley,Lab,PC,32.19,174
05:00,,Dorset North,Con,LD,14.08,198
05:00,,Dorset South,Con,Lab,14.79,199
05:00,,Ealing North,Lab,Con,19.51,219
05:00,,Faversham & Kent Mid,Con,LD,36.58,247
05:00,,Feltham & Heston,Lab,Con,9.60,248
05:00,,Fermanagh & South Tyrone,SF,Ind,0.01,249
05:00,,Gainsborough,Con,LD,21.44,257
05:00,,Grantham & Stamford,Con,LD,28.08,274
05:00,,Haltemprice & Howden,Con,LD,23.81,284
05:00,,Hemsworth,Lab,Con,22.45,303
05:00,,Herefordshire North,Con,LD,20.78,307
05:00,,Hitchin & Harpenden,Con,LD,27.91,315
05:00,,Leyton & Wanstead,Lab,LD,15.98,366
05:00,,Liverpool Riverside,Lab,LD,36.53,370
05:00,,Liverpool Walton,Lab,LD,57.72,371
05:00,,Liverpool Wavertree,Lab,LD,18.90,372
05:00,,Liverpool West Derby,Lab,LD,51.61,373
05:00,,Louth & Horncastle,Con,LD,27.47,378
05:00,,Maidstone & The Weald,Con,LD,12.04,384
05:00,,Meon Valley,Con,LD,23.66,391
05:00,,New Forest West,Con,LD,35.52,410
05:00,,”Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford”,Lab,Con,23.74,426
05:00,,Pontypridd,Lab,LD,7.59,454
05:00,,Poole,Con,LD,15.90,455
05:00,,Poplar & Limehouse,Lab,Con,12.91,456
05:00,,Rhondda,Lab,PC,37.18,470
05:00,,Richmond (Yorks),Con,LD,43.69,472
05:00,,Rugby,Con,Lab,12.64,483
05:00,,Rutland & Melton,Con,LD,25.35,488
05:00,,Salford & Eccles,Lab,LD,13.78,495
05:00,,Sedgefield,Lab,Con,21.62,499
05:00,,Shipley,Con,Lab,20.12,509
declarations 551-600
05:00,,Sittingbourne & Sheppey,Con,Lab,25.49,512
05:00,,St Albans,Con,LD,4.36,490
05:00,,Stratford-on-Avon,Con,LD,22.45,543
05:00,,Stretford & Urmston,Lab,Con,19.90,545
05:00,,Tiverton & Honiton,Con,LD,16.98,572
05:00,,Wallasey,Lab,Con,20.42,592
05:00,,Walthamstow,Lab,LD,23.12,595
05:00,,Warrington North,Lab,Con,15.32,599
05:00,,Winchester,Con,LD,5.45,622
05:00,,Worsley & Eccles South,Lab,Con,10.40,637
05:00,,York Central,Lab,Con,13.88,648
05:00,,York Outer,Con,LD,6.92,649
05:00,,Yorkshire East,Con,LD,26.31,650
05:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Great Yarmouth,Con,Lab,9.93,277
05:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Waveney,Con,Lab,1.50,605
05:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Birmingham Edgbaston,Lab,Con,3.06,57
05:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Halifax,Lab,Con,3.38,283
05:30,,Aylesbury,Con,LD,23.73,22
05:30,,Basingstoke,Con,LD,26.01,34
05:30,,Birmingham Hodge Hill,Lab,LD,24.26,60
05:30,,Broadland,Con,LD,13.84,103
05:30,,Buckingham,Speaker,Ind,25.92,108
05:30,,Cambridgeshire South East,Con,LD,10.32,123
05:30,,Devon Central,Con,LD,17.13,188
05:30,,South Holland & The Deepings,Con,LD,43.60,520
06:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Cardiff North,Con,Lab,0.41,127
06:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Lancaster & Fleetwood,Con,Lab,0.78,350
06:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Morecambe & Lunesdale,Con,Lab,1.99,404
06:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Birmingham Selly Oak,Lab,Con,7.48,64
06:00,LD defence?,Cardiff Central,LD,Lab,12.66,126
06:00,SNP?,Aberdeen North,Lab,SNP,22.18,3
06:00,SNP?,Aberdeen South,Lab,LD,8.15,4
06:00,UKIP?,Thanet South,Con,Lab,16.58,568
06:00,,Birmingham Perry Barr,Lab,LD,28.32,63
06:00,,Bognor Regis & Littlehampton,Con,LD,27.88,74
06:00,,Cardiff South & Penarth,Lab,Con,10.62,128
06:00,,Cardiff West,Lab,Con,11.60,129
06:00,,Ealing Southall,Lab,Con,21.73,220
06:00,,Forest of Dean,Con,Lab,22.69,254
06:00,,Gillingham & Rainham,Con,Lab,18.55,261
06:00,,Hampshire North East,Con,LD,35.13,288
06:00,,Hayes & Harlington,Lab,Con,25.39,300
06:00,,Henley,Con,LD,30.99,305
06:00,,Norfolk North West,Con,LD,30.98,423
06:00,,Norfolk South West,Con,LD,26.73,425
06:00,,Oxford West & Abingdon,Con,LD,0.31,444
06:00,,Reading East,Con,LD,15.21,464
06:00,,Reading West,Con,Lab,12.63,465
06:00,,Romford,Con,Lab,36.48,477
06:00,,”Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner”,Con,Lab,37.96,484
declarations 601-650
06:00,,Shropshire North,Con,LD,30.52,511
06:00,,St Helens North,Lab,Con,29.40,492
06:00,,St Helens South & Whiston,Lab,LD,30.65,493
06:00,,Stoke-on-Trent Central,Lab,LD,17.14,537
06:00,,Stoke-on-Trent North,Lab,Con,20.49,538
06:00,,Stoke-on-Trent South,Lab,Con,10.36,539
06:00,,Tatton,Con,LD,32.03,563
06:00,,Tewkesbury,Con,LD,11.69,566
06:00,,Thanet North,Con,Lab,31.21,567
06:00,,Tonbridge & Malling,Con,LD,35.43,573
06:00,,Uxbridge & Ruislip South,Con,Lab,24.88,587
06:00,,Wantage,Con,LD,24.04,597
06:00,,Watford,Con,LD,2.58,604
06:00,,Wokingham,Con,LD,24.74,629
06:00,,Worthing East & Shoreham,Con,LD,22.95,638
06:00,,Worthing West,Con,LD,23.88,639
06:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Stalybridge & Hyde,Lab,Con,6.71,531
06:30,LD defence?,Cornwall North,LD,Con,6.36,162
06:30,LD defence?,Portsmouth South,LD,Con,12.60,458
06:30,LD defence?,St Austell & Newquay,LD,Con,2.78,491
06:30,,Ashton Under Lyne,Lab,Con,23.66,21
06:30,,Birmingham Hall Green,Lab,Respect,7.80,59
06:30,,Camborne & Redruth,Con,LD,0.16,118
06:30,,Cornwall South East,Con,LD,6.49,163
06:30,,Denton & Reddish,Lab,Con,26.12,180
06:30,,Portsmouth North,Con,Lab,16.52,457
06:30,,Truro & Falmouth,Con,LD,0.89,579
07:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Milton Keynes South,Con,Lab,9.40,398
07:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Oldham East & Saddleworth,Lab,LD,0.23,439
07:00,LD defence?,Manchester Withington,LD,Lab,4.21,389
07:00,LD defence?,Wells,LD,Con,1.43,609
07:00,SNP?,”Ross, Skye & Lochaber”,LD,Lab,37.52,479
07:00,,Blackley & Broughton,Lab,Con,35.97,68
07:00,,Hornchurch & Upminster,Con,Lab,30.66,317
07:00,,Leicester East,Lab,Con,29.34,356
07:00,,Leicester South,Lab,LD,18.69,357
07:00,,Leicester West,Lab,Con,11.21,358
07:00,,Macclesfield,Con,LD,23.89,382
07:00,,Manchester Central,Lab,LD,26.15,387
07:00,,Manchester Gorton,Lab,LD,17.49,388
07:00,,Milton Keynes North,Con,Lab,16.63,397
07:00,,Oldham West & Royton,Lab,Con,21.79,440
07:00,,Wythenshawe & Sale East,Lab,Con,18.59,645
12:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Warwick & Leamington,Con,Lab,7.16,601
12:00,LD defence?,Berwick-upon-Tweed,LD,Con,7.00,50
12:00,,Blyth Valley,Lab,LD,17.29,73
12:00,,Hexham,Con,LD,13.31,312
12:00,,Kenilworth & Southam,Con,LD,25.92,339
12:00,,Wansbeck,Lab,LD,18.37,596
13:00,LD defence?,St Ives,LD,Con,3.74,494
PHEW – The end
ANTHONY WELLS
Would you please consider releasing my post starting “declarations 401-450” of 1:00 am from moderation?
I suspect it got there because a constituency scheduled to declare by 04:30 beginning with S is the Lincolnshire coastal town for whom Ian Botham used to play football.
Just want to say what a great site this is. I am horrified at the vitriolic and despicable comments on other websites. Whatever happened to the time when you could disagree with someone without resorting to gratuitous insults. Does anonymity foster this “modern” phenomenon?
PS re the CSVs above, I think the whole spreadsheet should now be downloadable in XLS or CSV from https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YybChnGzuG1eVf-tXbl5DOg2eTcLGypkh09VP2ChxUQ/edit#gid=788230684
PS re https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YybChnGzuG1eVf-tXbl5DOg2eTcLGypkh09VP2ChxUQ/edit#gid=788230684
I have had some email requests for access so I have tried making it publicly available.
If it still is not please someone repost the advice re posting spreadsheets here and I’ll try again.
So…. all the predictions out by miles. Must be a lot of very shocked people here who take a deep interest in polling?