It’s a truism that there isn’t one election on May 7th, there are 650. However, the brutal reality is that lots of them will behave much the same in terms of swing, and that in lots of them the outcome is a virtual certainty and they won’t matter. A good 450 or so seats we can be pretty confident won’t change hands this Thursday unless the polls are very wrong. We can actually boil down the election to four battlegrounds. Here’s where they are and what we know about them from the polling so far.

Conservative vs Labour battleground


The main battleground in determining which party will lead the government is that between Labour and Conservative. It’s also by far the largest – it’s true to say that the political geography of Britain has become ever more diverse since the days when almost every race was just Lab-v-Con, but the biggest single chunk of winnable marginals is still just that.

It’s also the battleground where good old uniform national swing remains a fairly good guide. It won’t predict individual seats – there will always be some seats with much bigger swings, some with more smaller ones – but in aggregate it should give a good picture. Overall current polls show a swing of about 3% or 3.5% from Conservative to Labour. In the Con-Lab battleground that should win Labour roughly forty seats.

However, there are two important caveats to this. The first is that almost all the Con-Lab battleground is in England & Wales, and GB polls are distorted by the completely different swing in Scotland. Labour’s vote is up by around 5 or 6 points in England & Wales, down by about 15 to 20 points in Scotland. If you look at the data in just England & Wales you find a Con>Lab swing nearer 5 points, which would win Labour around sixty seats.

The second is whether the swing in the marginal seats is the same as the swing in England and Wales as a whole. Looking at the historical data there is good reason to expect it won’t be. The vast majority of the Con-Lab battleground seats are being fought by first time Conservative incumbents who won the seat in 2010, this means they will be gaining an incumbent advantage they didn’t have last time, while in many cases Labour will be losing an incumbent advantage they enjoyed in 2010. Looking at data from past elections this impact is pretty consistent even if it is worth only a couple of percentage points (it’s worth far more for the Lib Dems). There is some evidence to support this – the recent ComRes poll of Con-Lab marginals found a swing of 3.5%. Looking at the broad sweep of Lord Ashcroft’s polls in these seats and adjusting the older Ashcroft polls to account for changes in the national polls since they were done the average swing comes out around 3.8%.

In practice this means the swing in the Con-Lab marginals may well be similar to that in the national polls, but only because Labour’s over-performance in England & Wales is cancelled out by Conservative over-performance in Con-Lab marginals. That means Labour gains from the Tories of around 40 seats, if the national polls are neck-and-neck (if the Conservatives are a point or two better, the gains will obviously be less)

Of course there will be variation between seats, so not all Con-Lab marginals with majorities below 7% will fall, there have been some constituency polls suggesting good chances of Conservative holds in marginals like Loughborough, Worcester or Kingswood. Equally though there will be some seats with larger majorities that do fall – London constituency polls in particularly have shown larger swings, so watch for places like Ealing Central & Acton or Finchley & Golders Green.

The SNP Landslide


The second biggest focus on election night will probably be the Scottish seats. What the story will be in Scotland is not in dispute, it will be a SNP landslide. The question is only the scale of that landslide. All the polling evidence gives the SNP a very large lead, varying between 20 and 35 points. The questions are where it ends up in that range, how accurate it is and how it translates into seats.

To deal with the overall polls first, I can well imagine that some polls in Scotland will overestimate SNP support. There have been huge shifts in party support since previous elections (and probably significant changes in the drivers of voting intention in Scotland) making it hard to model and weight Scottish samples. Equally SNP support is extremely enthusiastic – I can well imagine differential response rates becoming a problem. That said, polling error in Scotland probably won’t cause much of an upset because of the sheer size of the SNP lead – to put it bluntly, if polls give a party a 5 point lead and it turns out its actually a draw then it makes a huge difference. If polls give a party a 25 point lead and it turns out that lead is actually only 20 points it is not, in practice, such a big deal, even if the scale of the error is the same. The difference will only be between “vast landslide” and “huge landslide”. I cannot see the polls being so wrong that the SNP don’t get a crushing victory.

So how will the SNP landslide in votes translate into seats? Well, with a swing of this scale Uniform National Swing really does break down completely. UNS assumes parties shares of the vote go up and down by the same amount in each seat, but Labour cannot lose 20 percentage points in every seat in Scotland, it would give them a negative share of the vote in nine seats. The same applies to the Liberal Democrats. As a result of this floor effect, Labour and the Liberal Democrats must be losing more support in seats where they had more to begin with – their vote has fallen too much to be evenly spread across all of Scotland. This means that Labour and the Lib Dems could lose even more seats than suggested by uniform swing (and means even if the national share of the vote for the SNP isn’t as good as polls suggest, they could still get the sort of landslide in seats that the polls suggest).

The scale of the SNP surge is such that very few seats have any realistic chance of withstanding it. The most plausible ones are the very largest Labour majorities, the Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldys of the world, Jim Murphy in Renfrewshire East, the Lib Dem stronghold of Orkney & Shetland and perhaps the border seats (if the SNP don’t take Berwickshire, it is also a marginal between the Lib Dems and Conservatives).

Liberal Democrat Defence


Given the Conservative party’s most viable coalition partner is the Liberal Democrats how many seats change hands between the two parties doesn’t make much difference to the electoral maths after the election. It is still obviously important for negotiations, party morale, the psychologically and politically important issue of who is the biggest party (and, of course, for who is the MP in those seats!). Liberal Democrat battles against Labour are far more important in terms of the hung Parliament maths.

The Liberal Democrats’ ability to win and hold seats has a famously limited relationship with their national vote share. In 1992 they got 18% of the vote and won 20 seats, in 1997 their vote went down to 17% but they more than doubled their number of seats to 46. In 2010 they gained votes, but lost 5 seats. How many seats they win has always been largely reliant upon their ability to harness tactical and personal votes in their areas of strength. That said, it’s not realistic to expect a party to lose half their national support and emerge unscathed. While I’ve seen a few claims for potential Lib Dem gains that aren’t completely ludicrous (Watford or Maidstone & the Weald, for example), generally speaking the Liberal Democrat election aim is to limit their inevitable losses as much as they can. This depends upon the demographics and political opponents in their seats, and the incumbency and entrenchment of their individual MPs.

In England and Wales the Liberal Democrats have 46 seats. In eleven Labour are the second placed party, in thirty-four the Conservatives are second placed (though in at least two of them, Sheffield Hallam and Cambridge, Labour are probably the bigger threat) and in Ceredigion Plaid Cymru are second placed. In the vast majority of the seats we have individual polls from Lord Ashcroft to give us an idea of how the race is looking. There are two extremely obvious trends – one is that the Liberal Democrats are collapsing where their main challenger is Labour, but holding up well where the main challenger is the Conservatives. The second is the sheer variation between seats, even within the LD-Con battleground and the LD-Lab battleground.

Ashcroft has polled all the LD/Con marginals that might feasibly change hands. The average swing in these seats was just over 2 points from LD>Con, enough to take about seven seats. However the swings ranged from ten percent LD>CON in Chippenham, to swings of seven percent from CON>LD in Eastbourne and Sutton & Cheam, and in practice this meant ten of the constituency polls had the Conservatives ahead – but these are just snapshot polls with margins of error, so many of these seats are in play. Note also, that many of the polls were last year and the Liberal Democrats have recovered slightly since then.

Looking at the LD-Lab battleground the average swing was a crushing 12 points from LD>Lab, meaning many of these seats are almost nailed on certainties for Labour. The exceptions are Birmingham Yardley, where John Hemming polled surprisingly well, Bermondsey where Simon Hughes was protected by a huge majority, Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam where Labour are coming from third and I expect the Lib Dems will benefit from tactical voting (Ashcroft showed Clegg behind in Hallam, but more recent ICM polling has him ahead). Hornsey and Wood Green is also interesting – the Lib Dem own polling has them doing better there and both the Lib Dems and Labour seem to be targetting it heavily, so it may be much more of a toss up than Ashcroft suggested.

UKIP Targets


There is no easy way to come up with a list of UKIP targets – demographics, local and European election results can give us a steer, so can some of UKIP’s published statements about which seats they are targeting. Realistically though when a party has more than tripled their vote it is hard to accurately judge where their positions of strength and weakness are. The seats below are my best guesses of their most plausible gains (there are other seats where they have strength like Waveney, Great Yarmouth or Redcar that are in the Con-Lab battleground list… but I don’t think they stand much chance of actually winning any others, and constituency polling in some of those seats has shown them on the wane. As to how they will do in these seats – I don’t think any are necessarily easy to call. Everyone assumes Douglas Carswell will hold Clacton given his margin of victory in the by-election, Mark Reckless in Rochester looks more vulnerable. Thurrock looks too close to call, as does Thanet South with its contradictory polling. Great Grimsby was a plausible UKIP gain, but recent polling has Labour with a healthy lead. Polling commissioned by UKIP donor Alan Bown gave them a stonking lead in Boston & Skegness last year, but this year an Ashcroft poll found the Tories ahead. My own guess is that Clacton will probably be a hold, and they have a chance in these other seats… but they won’t strike home in all of them.

And the rest

That leaves a few other interesting seats that don’t fit into any of the main battleground categories, but could change hands. Two are the seats held by smaller parties – I expect the Greens to hold on in Brighton Pavilion (but not gain anywhere else), how George Galloway will do in Bradford West is anyone’s guess. Watford appears to be the only Con-Lab-LD three way marginal that is still a three way marginal for the three parties – it could go either of the three ways.

And so, a prediction

I generally hold to the pollsters’ maxim of snapshot not prediction, so I avoid predictions like the plague for most of the Parliament as the polls may yet change. In 2010 I waited until after the final polls were done before getting off the fence, but it gave me very little time to actually write anything, so this year I’ve done it up front. Obviously if Wednesday’s final polls do show the Conservatives eeking out a small lead I’ll reconsider and make my prediction more Conservative – when the facts change, I changed my mind. As it is though, my personal best guess is Conservatives around 277 seats, Labour around 267, the Lib Dems around 29 and the SNP around 52. I’ll revisit those once we have the final polls.

742 Responses to “The election battlegrounds… and a prediction”

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  1. Reading Tom Clark’s write-up, it looks as though turnout adjustment reduces Labour from 37 to 35, and increases the Conservative vote from 33 to 34.

    The d/k reallocation then boosts the Conservatives by another point.


    before I go to bed…

    CON 273 LAB 274 LD 27 UKIP 2 GRN 1 SNP 52 PC 3

  3. CANDY

    When they saw the LibDem vote plummet post the 2010 election, they should have rushed into Lib-Con marginals and established themselves as the replacement for the LibDems as opposition to Conservatives – they had nearly five years to do it. But they didn’t bother – I think they thought the Libs would hang on with tactical votes from Lab people. Big mistake, which means the Cons will sweep the south-west.


    They could have ‘rushed’ into the South West but as their share of the vote here is so low I’m not sure that even a super-human effort could have established them as the main opposition to the Conservatives.

    Just to take an example. In 1997 Labour made a huge effort in the Wells constituency and Michael Eavis (of Glastonbury fame) stood as their candidate. His local profile did raise their vote to c11,000 from c4,000. This at a time when Labour nationally was also doing well. However all it achieved really was that the Conservatives won by a greater margin than usual over the Lib Dems.

    The only Labour hopes in the South West are in urban districts.

    If they could get any sense of a real connection with rural communities as the SNP seem to have managed in Scotland then maybe Labour could start making some inroads. At the moment it seems unlikely.

  4. @ Candy

    When going for the 18-24 vote, they seem to have focused on males via Russell Brand and ignored females.

    Women in that age group had Milifandom & Milibae the Movie both of which contained some serious stuff as well as the fun stuff which the media focussed on.

  5. Are there any leftie luvvies on tonight ? I have so enjoyed the “edgy”
    comics explaining how the NHS will be sold to Kaiser Health Care of California. As a punchline, the proceeds of flogging “OUR NHS” could be distributed to the 1000 highest paid bankers in the City. Lets do that joke tonight. You guys decide which privileged middle class git, with a mockney accent performs.

  6. New thread on FINAL POLLS

  7. I don’t see many people talking about this factor….

    “The second reason for a likely Labour win is to be found in the electoral system. This is something which the Conservatives have brought on themselves. Whatever the wisdom of the reforms to the House of Lords to which they agreed in conjunction with the Liberal Democrats — and I suspect they would have been unwise – elected peers would, depending on the timing of the electoral cycle, either undermine the authority of the Commons government or give it authority to ride rough-shod over scrutiny – this was a price they promised to Nick Clegg when negotiating the Coalition’s terms of reference. Refusing to honour that pledge led to the blocking of boundary reform that would have redistributed seats from Labour and cut 50 constituencies for a net Tory gain. It is impossible to say whether there would have been less honour in the Conservatives going along with the constitutional atrocity of an elected Lords or in reneging on their word to do so. In either case, they are now hamstrung. Under the existing system, the Conservatives need to win by 11 points for a majority, thanks to the distribution of the Tory vote. Labour needs to win by three for a majority. Even with the reforms, a Conservative government would have to have won by at least seven points.”

    Even considering how much Scotland has moved from Labour to the SNP, there is still the fact that northern constituencies are less populated than southern constituencies, and how that plays into Labour’s hands….

  8. PA3YRE

    Got that. Sleep tight! :)

  9. I live in a Conservative area, and so my prediction that Labour will do well is not based on who I meet.

    Thank you Anthony for all the analysis over the past months and years. Anyone sensible would simply copy your prediction, but that would make for a slightly dull site, and UKPR is just the opposite.

    So I will just make a guess, based on factors including shy Labour supporters in Scotland reducing the SNP landslide just a bit; shy Kippers in England hurting Conservatives more than Labour; LD vote holding up better against the Conservatives than against Labour; still the small effect of the unreformed parliamentary boundaries favouring Labour; the fact that the opinion polls before the last election overestimated Conservative support…

    Of course I cannot quantify all these factors accurately in terms of seats, and there are other unknowns like who has registered to vote, who has already voted by post and is unaffected by any last minute trends, and of course will older people vote in greater numbers as they have previously.

    I am about to have a break from the polls and do something useful like getting in some food and drink before I watch the results coming in tomorrow night, but first here are my predictions.

    Labour 325
    Cons 224
    SNP 45
    LD 28

  10. Candy
    When going for the 18-24 vote, they seem to have focused on males via Russell Brand and ignored females.
    I’m not sure that’s true. Before he did the Brand video he did interviews with SprinkleofGlitter (a beauty vlogger) and Niki ‘n’ Sammy (a comedy act). Both have fanbases predominantly made up of young women.
    And of course the #milifandom is mostly young women as well.

  11. OK so I have kept you waiting long enough for my predictions but first of all a big thank you to AW for the site.

    Here are the predictions from Aberdeenshire:

    Cons – not quite enough

    Lab – just about enough

    SNP – shedloads. ( A spokesperson said: Ms Sturgeon will be available for discussions strictly by appointment [ and yes you can take a selfie with her if you want].

    LDs – a large minibus load. ( A spokesman said: please, please,talk to us. Anybody except the beastly SNP. Please.)

    UKIP – a Robin Reliant load.( A spokesperson said: we was robbed)

    PC – not too many ( A spokesperson said: it doesn’t matter just remember we are friends of Nicola.)

    Greens – one ( A spokesperson said: just remember its been a bad night for us but a worse one for rabbits throughout the UK).

    NI parties – 18 ish or about £1bn worth depending on who is asking.

  12. “but b) just like the old data :(”

    The seat forecast looks identical.

    Do we know for sure what data they use? I think a poster last night was saying that it always moved in line with the Ashcroft marginal polls – but that doesn’t seem to have happened here

  13. Chris Lane

    I think Kinnock believed he had won. I remember the start of the BBC coverage on election night. They had the Kinnock’s in the studio and the cameras panned to their faces at the point Dimblebey pronounced the exit poll suggested it was too tight to call. They looked crestfallen. Little did they know it that poll was kind for them and the cold reality of a Major majority became clear some hours later.

  14. More details from the ICM poll – issues which influence voting choice;

    79% – the future of the NHS
    57% – looming public expenditure cuts
    51% – squeezed living standards
    48% – the deficit
    46% – future tax rises
    39% – fears of the next government being held to ransom by smaller parties.

    Top three issues are all more favourable to Labour


    It could be favourable to Labour. I could be wrong.

    In the world on investment, when we analyse investments with human sentiment and confidence indicators, we see lack of correlation, at times between sentiment and confidence index’s relative to expenditure, how much people actually spending.

    New Cars sales, best month this century with nearly half a million, 492,774, cars registered in March, up 6.0% on same month last year.

    Based on parameters required by the pollster, what are you main concerns.

    People have indicated x, y, z etc

    If you give set parameters of concern, people will just go for the obvious ones.

    Do these parameters have any bearing, I will leave that to everyone’s own ideology.

    NHS is important, saying that people are more concerned about the money is in their pocket right now, than NHS.

    People are more concerned:
    1) Are they going to get paid more next year, and where their next holiday is.
    2) Buying nice clothes, going out and having a few beers.

    If the nation was that concerned about the NHS, they would be leaving £ Billions in legacy’s to the NHS, donating hundreds of millions to the NHS, because they have that extra passion for the NHS, by gift aid.

    How they vote is completely different.

    Yes I am concerned about the NHS, my farther had cancer, over the years he received the best care and treatment. In the latter stages, he was in hospital, I cannot other than complement the Doctors and Nurses, for the care and aftercare, that my farther received. It was second to none.

    I will use one of my favourite Warren Buffet quotes “In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long term, it is a weighing machine.”

    What matters in the long run is a company’s actual underlying business performance and not the investing public’s fickle opinion about its prospects in the short run.

    The above quotes can be interpreted in any manner one likes. I will leave it to your discretion :-)

  15. Michael Siva

    My daughter’s just boarded the train back to her university in Sussex, so that she can vote in Brighton…she’s assured me that Greens will at least win in Brighton – lol!


    Take my hat off to her.

  16. Mike Smithson [email protected]
    ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from ICM poll
    CON 36.5%
    LAB 36.7%
    LD 7.9%
    UKIP 12.9%
    A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.2%

    A lot of seats for Tories with a swing like that

  17. NeilJ
    “As a non resident myself I have no choice as to my status as I work abroad for 12 months, but I still pay UK tax on my UK pension, as well as property income.”

    That’s because your pension is a government pension (civil service, teachers etc). I pay all my tax in France as my private pensions are non government. And I pay about half the tax I would in the UK as I get full nil & 6.5% band rate allowance for my wife who has no income. Property doesn’t come into it as I am not wealthy enough to have retained a house in the UK.

    Interestingly that doesn’t give me the right to vote in the national elections here, to do that you have to become a French Citizen and I have no intention of doing that. I’m content with being French resident. I can vote in local elections although never have, as it’s not my role to tell the French what to do. I am a guest in their country. At least till 2017.
    However, I have very close ties with England, I lived there for 55 years, paid tax & NI all my working life and will shortly receive the OAP. I therefore feel it is my right to vote there and by the same token it should be the right of any Scotsman to vote in a Scottish referendum.

  18. My prediction, for what it’s worth…

    Conservatives – 280
    Labour – 265
    SNP – 55
    Lib Dems – 25
    DUP – 9
    Sinn Fein – 5
    Plaid Cymru – 4
    SDLP – 3
    UKIP – 2
    Green Party – 1
    Independent – 1

    (I’ve including the Speaker under the Conservatives but the estimates for the big 4 are only rough estimates anyhow)

  19. I will be in Nuneaton tomorrow helping out the Labour campaign, so I probably won’t be able to post anything, but if possible I will try and give an idea of the state of play on the ground, on polling day.

  20. @ Catsowyn

    Labour 273
    Conservative 269
    SNP 48
    LD 26
    UKIP 8
    DUP 8
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Sinn Fein 4
    SDLP 3
    Green 2
    Alliance 1
    Respect 1
    UUP 1
    Lady Herman 1
    Speaker 1

  21. @Amber – “Women in that age group had Milifandom & Milibae the Movie both of which contained some serious stuff as well as the fun stuff which the media focussed on.”

    Milifandom etc were for under 18’s. Stuff that appeals to teen girls and stuff that appeals to young women are two separate things. It sums up the problem that Lab doesn’t understand that there is a vast difference between a 17 year old and a 21 year old, but not much difference between a 21 year old and a 24 year old.

  22. The Number Cruncher Analysis of the Shy Tories is a definite must-read.

    It is nine pages of depressing reading for Labour supporters like me and its conclusion is that the Conservatives are really leading by over 6 points.

    If that is true I am glad that I am being prepared for the bad news.

  23. Isn’t there likely to be even more of a shy UKIP effect though? But I guess these days that might drain support from both of the main parties about equally.

  24. Somewhat later than hoped, I have finished the CSV I promised linking the PA declaration times with AW’s seats to watch above, plus as suggested last night I have highlighted Lab seats with small majorities which could indicate Lab having a bad night.

    The full CSV is 651 lines, so I will post in 13×50 line chunks, with only the first having an extra header line.

    The chunks should paste into any spreadsheet editor.

  25. Header + 1st 50 declarations

    00:00,,Houghton & Sunderland South,Lab,Con,28.91,320
    00:00,,Newcastle upon Tyne Central,Lab,LD,21.86,414
    00:00,,Newcastle upon Tyne East,Lab,LD,11.77,415
    00:00,,Newcastle upon Tyne North,Lab,LD,7.77,416
    00:00,,Washington & Sunderland West,Lab,Con,30.69,603
    00:01,,Sunderland Central,Lab,Con,15.84,551
    00:30,,Durham North West,Lab,LD,17.37,216
    01:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Nuneaton,Con,Lab,4.63,435
    01:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Dagenham & Rainham,Lab,Con,5.95,175
    01:00,,Antrim North,DUP,TUV,29.62,14
    01:00,,Durham North,Lab,Con,29.48,215
    01:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Darlington,Lab,Con,7.90,176
    01:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Vale of Clwyd,Lab,Con,7.06,588
    01:30,,”Durham, City of”,Lab,LD,6.63,214
    01:30,,Lagan Valley,DUP,UCUNF,28.70,347
    01:30,,Na h-Eileanan an Iar,SNP,Lab,12.81,407
    01:30,,Tyrone West,SF,DUP,28.67,584
    01:30,,Upper Bann,DUP,UCUNF,8.12,586
    02:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Battersea,Con,Lab,12.25,38
    02:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South,Con,Lab,8.45,132
    02:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Northampton North,Con,Lab,4.81,427
    02:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Tooting,Lab,Con,4.98,574
    02:00,LD defence?,Eastleigh,LD,Con,7.20,226
    02:00,PC Target,Ynys Mon,Lab,PC,7.14,647
    02:00,SNP?,”East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow”,Lab,SNP,28.47,223
    02:00,SNP?,Fife North East,LD,Con,22.58,250
    02:00,SNP?,Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath,Lab,SNP,50.24,345
    02:00,SNP?,Lanark & Hamilton East,Lab,SNP,28.95,348
    02:00,SNP?,Rutherglen & Hamilton West,Lab,SNP,44.70,487
    02:00,UKIP?,Castle Point,Con,GB,16.95,134
    02:00,,Antrim East,DUP,UCUNF,22.20,13
    02:00,,Belfast East,Alliance,DUP,4.45,45
    02:00,,Belfast North,DUP,SF,6.01,46
    02:00,,Belfast South,SDLP,DUP,17.33,47
    02:00,,Belfast West,SF,SDLP,54.71,48
    02:00,,Bishop Auckland,Lab,Con,12.68,66
    02:00,,Blaenau Gwent,Lab,BV,32.46,71
    02:00,,Carmarthen East & Dinefwr,PC,Lab,9.16,131
    02:00,,Chesham & Amersham,Con,LD,31.86,142
    02:00,,Down North,Ind,UCUNF,42.90,202
    02:00,,Dwyfor Meirionnydd,PC,Con,22.03,217

  26. declarations 51-100

    02:00,,Epping Forest,Con,LD,32.48,239
    02:00,,Northampton South,Con,Lab,15.40,428
    02:00,,Oxford East,Lab,LD,8.87,443
    02:00,,Staffordshire South,Con,Lab,32.89,530
    02:00,,Surrey East,Con,LD,30.88,552
    02:15,LD defence?,Thornbury & Yate,LD,Con,14.76,570
    02:30,Con/Lab Marginal,”Chester, City of”,Con,Lab,5.52,143
    02:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Cleethorpes,Con,Lab,9.56,153
    02:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Kingswood,Con,Lab,5.10,344
    02:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Westminster North,Lab,Con,5.37,615
    02:30,Lab/LD Marginal,Rochdale,Lab,LD,1.94,474
    02:30,LD defence?,Yeovil,LD,Con,22.81,646
    02:30,SNP?,Dundee West,Lab,SNP,19.60,212
    02:30,SNP?,Kilmarnock & Loudoun,Lab,SNP,26.59,342
    02:30,,Antrim South,DUP,UCUNF,3.48,15
    02:30,,Cities of London & Westminster,Con,Lab,29.99,151
    02:30,,Devon East,Con,LD,17.17,189
    02:30,,Dundee East,SNP,Lab,4.49,211
    02:30,,Ellesmere Port & Neston,Lab,Con,9.79,234
    02:30,,Filton & Bradley Stoke,Con,Lab,14.31,251
    02:30,,Hampshire East,Con,LD,26.30,287
    02:30,,Hemel Hempstead,Con,LD,27.10,302
    02:30,,Hertford & Stortford,Con,LD,27.88,308
    02:30,,Islington North,Lab,LD,27.83,334
    02:30,,Islington South & Finsbury,Lab,LD,8.19,335
    02:30,,Leicestershire North West,Con,Lab,14.46,359
    02:30,,Mitcham & Morden,Lab,Con,31.20,399
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Aberconwy,Con,Lab,11.34,2
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Amber Valley,Con,Lab,1.17,11
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Bedford,Con,Lab,3.00,41
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Bury North,Con,Lab,4.99,111
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Carlisle,Con,Lab,2.02,130
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Croydon Central,Con,Lab,5.97,170
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Erewash,Con,Lab,5.25,241

  27. declarations 101-150

    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Hastings & Rye,Con,Lab,4.00,298
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,High Peak,Con,Lab,9.29,314
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Peterborough,Con,Lab,10.82,451
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stafford,Con,Lab,10.87,528
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stockton South,Con,Lab,0.66,536
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Swindon South,Con,Lab,7.52,561
    03:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Vale of Glamorgan,Con,Lab,8.85,589
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Alyn & Deeside,Lab,Con,7.31,10
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Bolton West,Lab,Con,0.19,78
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Bury South,Lab,Con,6.82,112
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Delyn,Lab,Con,6.14,179
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Derby North,Lab,Con,1.36,181
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Derbyshire North East,Lab,Con,5.20,185
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Exeter,Lab,Con,5.21,244
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Gedling,Lab,Con,3.86,260
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Gower,Lab,Con,6.44,273
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Hampstead & Kilburn,Lab,Con,0.08,290
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East,Lab,Con,3.63,395
    03:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Telford,Lab,Con,2.37,565
    03:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Hull North,Lab,LD,1.93,324
    03:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Swansea West,Lab,LD,1.42,559
    03:00,LD defence?,Bermondsey & Old Southwark,LD,Lab,19.10,49
    03:00,LD defence?,Brecon & Radnorshire,LD,Con,9.65,89
    03:00,LD defence?,Brent Central,LD,Lab,2.97,90
    03:00,LD defence?,Bristol West,LD,Lab,20.54,102
    03:00,LD defence?,Hornsey & Wood Green,LD,Lab,12.49,318
    03:00,LD defence?,Kingston & Surbiton,LD,Con,13.24,343
    03:00,LD defence?,Solihull,LD,Con,0.32,516
    03:00,SNP?,Airdrie & Shotts,Lab,SNP,34.61,6
    03:00,SNP?,Argyll & Bute,LD,Con,7.59,17
    03:00,SNP?,”Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill”,Lab,SNP,49.75,156
    03:00,SNP?,Dunbartonshire East,LD,Lab,4.55,209
    03:00,SNP?,Dunfermline & Fife West,Lab,LD,11.18,213
    03:00,SNP?,East Lothian,Lab,Con,24.93,224
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow Central,Lab,SNP,34.50,262
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow East,Lab,SNP,36.81,263
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow North,Lab,LD,13.16,264
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow North East,Lab,SNP,54.21,265
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow North West,Lab,LD,38.25,266
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow South,Lab,SNP,31.57,267
    03:00,SNP?,Glasgow South West,Lab,SNP,46.16,268
    03:00,SNP?,Motherwell & Wishaw,Lab,SNP,42.96,406
    03:00,SNP?,Ochil & Perthshire South,Lab,SNP,10.28,436
    03:00,SNP?,Paisley & Renfrewshire North,Lab,SNP,34.96,445
    03:00,SNP?,Paisley & Renfrewshire South,Lab,SNP,41.54,446
    03:00,SNP?,Renfrewshire East,Lab,Con,20.36,469
    03:00,UKIP?,Basildon South & Thurrock East,Con,Lab,12.90,33

  28. declarations 151-200

    03:00,,Barnsley Central,Lab,LD,29.98,29
    03:00,,Barnsley East,Lab,LD,28.89,30
    03:00,,Bolton North East,Lab,Con,9.44,76
    03:00,,Bolton South East,Lab,Con,21.80,77
    03:00,,Brent North,Lab,Con,15.35,91
    03:00,,Bristol North West,Con,LD,6.50,100
    03:00,,Bury St Edmunds,Con,LD,21.08,113
    03:00,,Camberwell & Peckham,Lab,LD,36.84,117
    03:00,,Clwyd South,Lab,Con,8.17,154
    03:00,,Clwyd West,Con,Lab,16.84,155
    03:00,,Croydon North,Lab,Con,31.90,171
    03:00,,Croydon South,Con,LD,28.08,172
    03:00,,Derby South,Lab,Con,14.86,182
    03:00,,Derbyshire Mid,Con,Lab,23.85,184
    03:00,,Derbyshire South,Con,Lab,14.14,186
    03:00,,Harrogate & Knaresborough,Con,LD,1.96,293
    03:00,,Hertfordshire South West,Con,LD,26.29,310
    03:00,,Holborn & St Pancras,Lab,LD,18.19,316
    03:00,,Hull East,Lab,LD,25.15,323
    03:00,,Hull West & Hessle,Lab,LD,18.23,325
    03:00,,Isle of Wight,Con,LD,14.98,333
    03:00,,Londonderry East,DUP,SF,15.32,376
    03:00,,Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney,Lab,LD,12.64,393
    03:00,,Newport East,Lab,LD,4.79,417
    03:00,,Newport West,Lab,Con,8.92,418
    03:00,,Norfolk Mid,Con,LD,27.29,421
    03:00,,Perth & Perthshire North,SNP,Con,9.07,450
    03:00,,Ribble Valley,Con,Lab,28.25,471
    03:00,,Rother Valley,Lab,Con,12.55,481
    03:00,,Skipton & Ripon,Con,LD,18.18,513
    03:00,,Sleaford & North Hykeham,Con,LD,33.44,514
    03:00,,Somerset North,Con,LD,13.57,517
    03:00,,South Shields,Lab,Con,30.42,522

  29. declarations 201-250

    03:00,,Stockton North,Lab,Con,16.90,535
    03:00,,Suffolk West,Con,LD,27.14,550
    03:00,,Swansea East,Lab,LD,33.17,558
    03:00,,Swindon North,Con,Lab,14.04,560
    03:00,,Welwyn Hatfield,Con,Lab,35.58,610
    03:00,,Wentworth & Dearne,Lab,Con,33.06,611
    03:00,,Wyre & Preston North,Con,LD,30.88,643
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Blackpool North & Cleveleys,Con,Lab,5.30,69
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Dover,Con,Lab,10.47,201
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Enfield North,Con,Lab,3.81,237
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Harlow,Con,Lab,11.22,292
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Lincoln,Con,Lab,2.31,368
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Loughborough,Con,Lab,7.09,377
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,South Ribble,Con,Lab,10.79,521
    03:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Weaver Vale,Con,Lab,2.25,607
    03:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Blackpool South,Lab,Con,5.26,70
    03:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Walsall North,Lab,Con,2.74,593
    03:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Walsall South,Lab,Con,4.29,594
    03:30,LD defence?,Burnley,LD,Lab,4.34,109
    03:30,LD defence?,Cheltenham,LD,Con,9.32,141
    03:30,SNP?,Dunbartonshire West,Lab,SNP,41.19,210
    03:30,SNP?,Linlithgow & Falkirk East,Lab,SNP,24.40,369
    03:30,UKIP?,Great Grimsby,Lab,Con,2.17,276
    03:30,,Bedfordshire Mid,Con,LD,27.60,42
    03:30,,Bedfordshire South West,Con,LD,32.79,44
    03:30,,Bournemouth East,Con,LD,17.55,82
    03:30,,Bournemouth West,Con,LD,13.40,83
    03:30,,Bromley & Chislehurst,Con,LD,31.56,104
    03:30,,Cambridgeshire North West,Con,LD,28.61,121
    03:30,,Cambridgeshire South,Con,LD,13.27,122
    03:30,,”Cotswolds, The”,Con,LD,23.46,164
    03:30,,Down South,SDLP,SF,19.75,203
    03:30,,Dulwich & West Norwood,Lab,LD,19.42,206
    03:30,,East Ham,Lab,Con,55.24,222
    03:30,,Enfield Southgate,Con,Lab,17.19,238
    03:30,,Newry & Armagh,SF,SDLP,18.55,419

  30. declarations 251-300

    03:30,,Rayleigh & Wickford,Con,LD,42.68,463
    03:30,,Suffolk Coastal,Con,LD,16.63,548
    03:30,,Surrey Heath,Con,LD,31.81,553
    03:30,,Thirsk & Malton,Con,LD,29.60,569
    03:30,,Ulster Mid,SF,DUP,37.62,585
    03:30,,West Bromwich East,Lab,Con,17.64,612
    03:30,,West Bromwich West,Lab,Con,15.62,613
    03:30,,West Ham,Lab,Con,47.99,614
    03:30,,Worcestershire Mid,Con,LD,31.15,634
    03:30,,”Wrekin, The”,Con,Lab,20.56,640
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Broxtowe,Con,Lab,0.74,107
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Cannock Chase,Con,Lab,7.01,124
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Dudley South,Con,Lab,10.10,205
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Gloucester,Con,Lab,4.77,270
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Harrow East,Con,Lab,7.09,294
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Ipswich,Con,Lab,4.43,332
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Pendle,Con,Lab,7.96,447
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Plymouth Sutton & Devonport,Con,Lab,2.62,453
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Preseli Pembrokeshire,Con,Lab,11.63,459
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stroud,Con,Lab,2.24,546
    04:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Warwickshire North,Con,Lab,0.11,602
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Bridgend,Lab,Con,5.90,94
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Dudley North,Lab,Con,1.68,204
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Eltham,Lab,Con,3.96,236
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Hammersmith,Lab,Con,7.48,286
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Harrow West,Lab,Con,6.82,295
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Luton South,Lab,Con,5.52,381
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Newcastle-under-Lyme,Lab,Con,3.59,413
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Nottingham South,Lab,Con,4.34,434
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Penistone & Stocksbridge,Lab,Con,6.55,448
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Plymouth Moor View,Lab,Con,3.82,452
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Southampton Itchen,Lab,Con,0.43,523
    04:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Southampton Test,Lab,Con,5.46,524
    04:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Ashfield,Lab,LD,0.40,19
    04:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Chesterfield,Lab,LD,1.20,144
    04:00,LD defence?,Carshalton & Wallington,LD,Con,11.46,133
    04:00,LD defence?,Devon North,LD,Con,11.34,190
    04:00,LD defence?,Eastbourne,LD,Con,6.59,225
    04:00,LD defence?,Lewes,LD,Con,15.27,362
    04:00,LD defence?,Norfolk North,LD,Con,23.41,422
    04:00,LD defence?,Sutton & Cheam,LD,Con,3.31,556
    04:00,LD defence?,Twickenham,LD,Con,20.33,581
    04:00,LD defence?,Westmorland & Lonsdale,LD,Con,23.82,616
    04:00,PC Target,Ceredigion,LD,PC,21.76,135

  31. declarations 301-350

    04:00,SNP?,Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine,LD,Con,8.15,5
    04:00,SNP?,”Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock”,Lab,Con,21.60,23
    04:00,SNP?,Ayrshire Central,Lab,Con,27.34,24
    04:00,SNP?,Ayrshire North & Arran,Lab,SNP,21.46,25
    04:00,SNP?,”Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East”,Lab,SNP,33.43,173
    04:00,SNP?,Dumfries & Galloway,Lab,Con,14.28,207
    04:00,SNP?,”Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale”,Con,Lab,9.14,208
    04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh East,Lab,SNP,23.03,228
    04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh North & Leith,Lab,LD,3.64,229
    04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh South,Lab,LD,0.72,230
    04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh South West,Lab,Con,18.58,231
    04:00,SNP?,Edinburgh West,LD,Lab,8.19,232
    04:00,SNP?,Orkney & Shetland,LD,Lab,51.32,441
    04:00,,Banff & Buchan,SNP,Con,10.47,27
    04:00,,Barrow & Furness,Lab,Con,11.80,31
    04:00,,Basildon & Billericay,Con,Lab,29.68,32
    04:00,,Bedfordshire North East,Con,LD,34.10,43
    04:00,,Bexleyheath & Crayford,Con,Lab,23.95,55
    04:00,,Birmingham Ladywood,Lab,LD,28.20,61
    04:00,,Brentwood & Ongar,Con,LD,33.45,93
    04:00,,Bridgwater & Somerset West,Con,LD,16.97,95
    04:00,,Bristol East,Lab,Con,8.27,99
    04:00,,Bristol South,Lab,LD,9.79,101
    04:00,,Cambridgeshire North East,Con,LD,31.43,120
    04:00,,Chelsea & Fulham,Con,Lab,41.96,140
    04:00,,Derbyshire Dales,Con,LD,29.64,183
    04:00,,Devon South West,Con,LD,31.84,191
    04:00,,Devon West & Torridge,Con,LD,5.35,192
    04:00,,Don Valley,Lab,Con,8.28,194
    04:00,,Doncaster Central,Lab,Con,14.92,195
    04:00,,Doncaster North,Lab,Con,26.30,196
    04:00,,Dorset West,Con,LD,6.84,200
    04:00,,Epsom & Ewell,Con,LD,29.36,240
    04:00,,Erith & Thamesmead,Lab,Con,13.43,242
    04:00,,Esher & Walton,Con,LD,34.09,243
    04:00,,Folkestone & Hythe,Con,LD,19.17,253
    04:00,,Garston & Halewood,Lab,LD,39.41,258
    04:00,,Greenwich & Woolwich,Lab,Con,24.65,278
    04:00,,Hackney North & Stoke Newington,Lab,LD,31.11,280

  32. declarations 351-400

    04:00,,Hackney South & Shoreditch,Lab,LD,33.34,281
    04:00,,Hampshire North West,Con,LD,34.87,289
    04:00,,Hereford & Herefordshire South,Con,LD,5.13,306
    04:00,,Heywood & Middleton,Lab,Con,12.95,313
    04:00,,Lewisham Deptford,Lab,LD,30.32,363
    04:00,,Lewisham East,Lab,LD,14.90,364
    04:00,,Lewisham West & Penge,Lab,LD,12.94,365
    04:00,,Luton North,Lab,Con,17.48,380
    04:00,,New Forest East,Con,LD,22.60,409
    04:00,,Northamptonshire South,Con,LD,34.19,429
    04:00,,Nottingham East,Lab,LD,21.05,432
    04:00,,Nottingham North,Lab,Con,23.74,433
    04:00,,Old Bexley & Sidcup,Con,Lab,34.86,438
    04:00,,Penrith & The Border,Con,LD,24.93,449
    04:00,,Richmond Park,Con,LD,6.90,473
    04:00,,Rochford & Southend East,Con,Lab,26.54,476
    04:00,,Romsey & Southampton North,Con,LD,8.49,478
    04:00,,Runnymede & Weybridge,Con,LD,34.29,485
    04:00,,Saffron Walden,Con,LD,28.03,489
    04:00,,Scarborough & Whitby,Con,Lab,16.50,497
    04:00,,Selby & Ainsty,Con,Lab,23.71,501
    04:00,,Southend West,Con,LD,16.67,525
    04:00,,Staffordshire Moorlands,Con,Lab,15.27,529
    04:00,,Suffolk Central & Ipswich North,Con,LD,25.81,547
    04:00,,Suffolk South,Con,LD,16.90,549
    04:00,,Surrey South West,Con,LD,28.50,554
    04:00,,Sussex Mid,Con,LD,13.25,555
    04:00,,Sutton Coldfield,Con,Lab,33.61,557
    04:00,,Tunbridge Wells,Con,LD,30.95,580
    04:00,,Wiltshire South West,Con,LD,21.15,620

  33. declarations 401-450

    04:00,,Worcestershire West,Con,LD,12.49,635
    04:00,,Wyre Forest,Con,Ind CHC,5.19,644
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Brigg & Goole,Con,Lab,11.73,96
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Corby,Con,Lab,3.49,161
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Crewe & Nantwich,Con,Lab,11.84,169
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Dewsbury,Con,Lab,2.83,193
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Elmet & Rothwell,Con,Lab,8.10,235
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Ilford North,Con,Lab,11.49,328
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Norwich North,Con,Lab,9.16,430
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Pudsey,Con,Lab,3.38,461
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Stevenage,Con,Lab,8.01,532
    04:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Wolverhampton South West,Con,Lab,1.72,632
    04:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Morley & Outwood,Lab,Con,2.25,405
    04:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Scunthorpe,Lab,Con,6.88,498
    04:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Wolverhampton North East,Lab,Con,7.12,630
    04:30,Lab/LD Marginal,Sheffield Central,Lab,LD,0.40,504
    04:30,LD defence?,Cheadle,LD,Con,6.23,138
    04:30,LD defence?,Chippenham,LD,Con,4.72,147
    04:30,LD defence?,Colchester,LD,Con,15.13,157
    04:30,LD defence?,Hazel Grove,LD,Con,15.18,301
    04:30,LD defence?,Leeds North West,LD,Con,20.93,354
    04:30,LD defence?,Norwich South,LD,Lab,0.65,431
    04:30,LD defence?,Redcar,LD,Lab,12.43,466
    04:30,LD defence?,Sheffield Hallam,LD,Con,29.89,505
    04:30,LD defence?,Somerton & Frome,LD,Con,3.00,519
    04:30,SNP?,”Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk”,LD,Con,11.58,51
    04:30,,Arundel & South Downs,Con,LD,29.81,18
    04:30,,Batley & Spen,Lab,Con,8.62,37
    04:30,,Bexhill & Battle,Con,LD,23.60,54
    04:30,,Birmingham Erdington,Lab,Con,9.22,58
    04:30,,Chipping Barnet,Con,Lab,23.57,148
    04:30,,Colne Valley,Con,LD,8.75,158
    04:30,,Harwich & Essex North,Con,LD,23.36,297
    04:30,,Hertfordshire North East,Con,LD,30.13,309
    04:30,,Ilford South,Lab,Con,22.05,329
    04:30,,Lancashire West,Lab,Con,8.96,349
    04:30,,Leeds Central,Lab,LD,28.47,351
    04:30,,Leeds East,Lab,Con,27.22,352
    04:30,,Leeds North East,Lab,Con,9.56,353
    04:30,,Leeds West,Lab,LD,18.10,355

  34. declarations 451-500

    04:30,,Leicestershire South,Con,LD,28.44,360
    04:30,,Mole Valley,Con,LD,28.81,400
    04:30,,Newton Abbot,Con,LD,1.08,420
    04:30,,Norfolk South,Con,LD,19.89,424
    04:30,,Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough,Lab,LD,35.03,503
    04:30,,Sheffield Heeley,Lab,LD,14.21,506
    04:30,,Sheffield South East,Lab,LD,25.37,507
    04:30,,Shrewsbury & Atcham,Con,LD,14.98,510
    04:30,,Tyneside North,Lab,LD,27.76,583
    04:30,,Wiltshire North,Con,LD,15.37,619
    04:30,,Wolverhampton South East,Lab,Con,19.00,631
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Brentford & Isleworth,Con,Lab,3.64,92
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Brighton Kemptown,Con,Lab,3.11,97
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Calder Valley,Con,Lab,12.42,116
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Ealing Central & Acton,Con,Lab,7.87,218
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Finchley & Golders Green,Con,Lab,12.32,252
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Halesowen & Rowley Regis,Con,Lab,4.60,282
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Hendon,Con,Lab,0.23,304
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Hove,Con,Lab,3.75,321
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Keighley,Con,Lab,6.16,338
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Rossendale & Darwen,Con,Lab,9.53,480
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Sherwood,Con,Lab,0.44,508
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Somerset North East,Con,Lab,9.60,518
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Stourbridge,Con,Lab,10.93,541
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Warrington South,Con,Lab,2.83,600
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Wirral West,Con,Lab,6.19,625
    05:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Worcester,Con,Lab,6.09,633
    05:00,Galloway?,Bradford West,Lab,Con,14.20,87
    05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Birmingham Northfield,Lab,Con,6.65,62
    05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Chorley,Lab,Con,5.21,149
    05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Hyndburn,Lab,Con,7.24,327
    05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Sefton Central,Lab,Con,7.97,500
    05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Wakefield,Lab,Con,3.63,591
    05:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Wirral South,Lab,Con,1.33,624
    05:00,LD defence?,Bath,LD,Con,25.24,36
    05:00,LD defence?,Birmingham Yardley,LD,Lab,7.35,65
    05:00,LD defence?,Bradford East,LD,Lab,0.90,85
    05:00,LD defence?,Cambridge,LD,Con,13.55,119
    05:00,LD defence?,Dorset Mid & Poole North,LD,Con,0.57,197
    05:00,LD defence?,Southport,LD,Con,13.77,526
    05:00,LD defence?,Taunton Deane,LD,Con,6.87,564
    05:00,LD defence?,Torbay,LD,Con,8.29,575
    05:00,SNP?,”Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross”,LD,Lab,16.78,115
    05:00,SNP?,”Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey”,LD,Lab,18.61,331

  35. declarations 501-550

    05:00,UKIP?,Boston & Skegness,Con,Lab,28.81,80
    05:00,UKIP?,Rochester & Strood,Con,Lab,20.75,475
    05:00,,Altrincham & Sale West,Con,LD,23.47,9
    05:00,,Bethnal Green & Bow,Lab,LD,22.82,52
    05:00,,Beverley & Holderness,Con,LD,24.41,53
    05:00,,Bradford South,Lab,Con,12.16,86
    05:00,,Brighton Pavilion,Green,Lab,2.42,98
    05:00,,Chatham & Aylesford,Con,Lab,13.85,137
    05:00,,Chingford & Woodford Green,Con,Lab,30.07,146
    05:00,,Coventry North East,Lab,Con,27.14,165
    05:00,,Coventry North West,Lab,Con,13.51,166
    05:00,,Coventry South,Lab,Con,8.37,167
    05:00,,Cynon Valley,Lab,PC,32.19,174
    05:00,,Dorset North,Con,LD,14.08,198
    05:00,,Dorset South,Con,Lab,14.79,199
    05:00,,Ealing North,Lab,Con,19.51,219
    05:00,,Faversham & Kent Mid,Con,LD,36.58,247
    05:00,,Feltham & Heston,Lab,Con,9.60,248
    05:00,,Fermanagh & South Tyrone,SF,Ind,0.01,249
    05:00,,Grantham & Stamford,Con,LD,28.08,274
    05:00,,Haltemprice & Howden,Con,LD,23.81,284
    05:00,,Herefordshire North,Con,LD,20.78,307
    05:00,,Hitchin & Harpenden,Con,LD,27.91,315
    05:00,,Leyton & Wanstead,Lab,LD,15.98,366
    05:00,,Liverpool Riverside,Lab,LD,36.53,370
    05:00,,Liverpool Walton,Lab,LD,57.72,371
    05:00,,Liverpool Wavertree,Lab,LD,18.90,372
    05:00,,Liverpool West Derby,Lab,LD,51.61,373
    05:00,,Louth & Horncastle,Con,LD,27.47,378
    05:00,,Maidstone & The Weald,Con,LD,12.04,384
    05:00,,Meon Valley,Con,LD,23.66,391
    05:00,,New Forest West,Con,LD,35.52,410
    05:00,,”Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford”,Lab,Con,23.74,426
    05:00,,Poplar & Limehouse,Lab,Con,12.91,456
    05:00,,Richmond (Yorks),Con,LD,43.69,472
    05:00,,Rutland & Melton,Con,LD,25.35,488
    05:00,,Salford & Eccles,Lab,LD,13.78,495

  36. declarations 551-600

    05:00,,Sittingbourne & Sheppey,Con,Lab,25.49,512
    05:00,,St Albans,Con,LD,4.36,490
    05:00,,Stretford & Urmston,Lab,Con,19.90,545
    05:00,,Tiverton & Honiton,Con,LD,16.98,572
    05:00,,Warrington North,Lab,Con,15.32,599
    05:00,,Worsley & Eccles South,Lab,Con,10.40,637
    05:00,,York Central,Lab,Con,13.88,648
    05:00,,York Outer,Con,LD,6.92,649
    05:00,,Yorkshire East,Con,LD,26.31,650
    05:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Great Yarmouth,Con,Lab,9.93,277
    05:30,Con/Lab Marginal,Waveney,Con,Lab,1.50,605
    05:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Birmingham Edgbaston,Lab,Con,3.06,57
    05:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Halifax,Lab,Con,3.38,283
    05:30,,Birmingham Hodge Hill,Lab,LD,24.26,60
    05:30,,Cambridgeshire South East,Con,LD,10.32,123
    05:30,,Devon Central,Con,LD,17.13,188
    05:30,,South Holland & The Deepings,Con,LD,43.60,520
    06:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Cardiff North,Con,Lab,0.41,127
    06:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Lancaster & Fleetwood,Con,Lab,0.78,350
    06:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Morecambe & Lunesdale,Con,Lab,1.99,404
    06:00,Lab/Con Marginal,Birmingham Selly Oak,Lab,Con,7.48,64
    06:00,LD defence?,Cardiff Central,LD,Lab,12.66,126
    06:00,SNP?,Aberdeen North,Lab,SNP,22.18,3
    06:00,SNP?,Aberdeen South,Lab,LD,8.15,4
    06:00,UKIP?,Thanet South,Con,Lab,16.58,568
    06:00,,Birmingham Perry Barr,Lab,LD,28.32,63
    06:00,,Bognor Regis & Littlehampton,Con,LD,27.88,74
    06:00,,Cardiff South & Penarth,Lab,Con,10.62,128
    06:00,,Cardiff West,Lab,Con,11.60,129
    06:00,,Ealing Southall,Lab,Con,21.73,220
    06:00,,Forest of Dean,Con,Lab,22.69,254
    06:00,,Gillingham & Rainham,Con,Lab,18.55,261
    06:00,,Hampshire North East,Con,LD,35.13,288
    06:00,,Hayes & Harlington,Lab,Con,25.39,300
    06:00,,Norfolk North West,Con,LD,30.98,423
    06:00,,Norfolk South West,Con,LD,26.73,425
    06:00,,Oxford West & Abingdon,Con,LD,0.31,444
    06:00,,Reading East,Con,LD,15.21,464
    06:00,,Reading West,Con,Lab,12.63,465
    06:00,,”Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner”,Con,Lab,37.96,484

  37. declarations 601-650

    06:00,,Shropshire North,Con,LD,30.52,511
    06:00,,St Helens North,Lab,Con,29.40,492
    06:00,,St Helens South & Whiston,Lab,LD,30.65,493
    06:00,,Stoke-on-Trent Central,Lab,LD,17.14,537
    06:00,,Stoke-on-Trent North,Lab,Con,20.49,538
    06:00,,Stoke-on-Trent South,Lab,Con,10.36,539
    06:00,,Thanet North,Con,Lab,31.21,567
    06:00,,Tonbridge & Malling,Con,LD,35.43,573
    06:00,,Uxbridge & Ruislip South,Con,Lab,24.88,587
    06:00,,Worthing East & Shoreham,Con,LD,22.95,638
    06:00,,Worthing West,Con,LD,23.88,639
    06:30,Lab/Con Marginal,Stalybridge & Hyde,Lab,Con,6.71,531
    06:30,LD defence?,Cornwall North,LD,Con,6.36,162
    06:30,LD defence?,Portsmouth South,LD,Con,12.60,458
    06:30,LD defence?,St Austell & Newquay,LD,Con,2.78,491
    06:30,,Ashton Under Lyne,Lab,Con,23.66,21
    06:30,,Birmingham Hall Green,Lab,Respect,7.80,59
    06:30,,Camborne & Redruth,Con,LD,0.16,118
    06:30,,Cornwall South East,Con,LD,6.49,163
    06:30,,Denton & Reddish,Lab,Con,26.12,180
    06:30,,Portsmouth North,Con,Lab,16.52,457
    06:30,,Truro & Falmouth,Con,LD,0.89,579
    07:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Milton Keynes South,Con,Lab,9.40,398
    07:00,Lab/LD Marginal,Oldham East & Saddleworth,Lab,LD,0.23,439
    07:00,LD defence?,Manchester Withington,LD,Lab,4.21,389
    07:00,LD defence?,Wells,LD,Con,1.43,609
    07:00,SNP?,”Ross, Skye & Lochaber”,LD,Lab,37.52,479
    07:00,,Blackley & Broughton,Lab,Con,35.97,68
    07:00,,Hornchurch & Upminster,Con,Lab,30.66,317
    07:00,,Leicester East,Lab,Con,29.34,356
    07:00,,Leicester South,Lab,LD,18.69,357
    07:00,,Leicester West,Lab,Con,11.21,358
    07:00,,Manchester Central,Lab,LD,26.15,387
    07:00,,Manchester Gorton,Lab,LD,17.49,388
    07:00,,Milton Keynes North,Con,Lab,16.63,397
    07:00,,Oldham West & Royton,Lab,Con,21.79,440
    07:00,,Wythenshawe & Sale East,Lab,Con,18.59,645
    12:00,Con/Lab Marginal,Warwick & Leamington,Con,Lab,7.16,601
    12:00,LD defence?,Berwick-upon-Tweed,LD,Con,7.00,50
    12:00,,Blyth Valley,Lab,LD,17.29,73
    12:00,,Kenilworth & Southam,Con,LD,25.92,339
    13:00,LD defence?,St Ives,LD,Con,3.74,494

    PHEW – The end


    Would you please consider releasing my post starting “declarations 401-450” of 1:00 am from moderation?

    I suspect it got there because a constituency scheduled to declare by 04:30 beginning with S is the Lincolnshire coastal town for whom Ian Botham used to play football.

  39. Just want to say what a great site this is. I am horrified at the vitriolic and despicable comments on other websites. Whatever happened to the time when you could disagree with someone without resorting to gratuitous insults. Does anonymity foster this “modern” phenomenon?

  40. PS re the CSVs above, I think the whole spreadsheet should now be downloadable in XLS or CSV from

  41. PS re

    I have had some email requests for access so I have tried making it publicly available.

    If it still is not please someone repost the advice re posting spreadsheets here and I’ll try again.

  42. So…. all the predictions out by miles. Must be a lot of very shocked people here who take a deep interest in polling?

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