Lord Ashcroft has released a good selection of new constituency polls, covering some interesting constituencies. Full details are here.

The least intersting is probably High Peak – a largely run of the mill Con -v- Lab marginal. Ashcroft previously polled it in February, finding a wafer thin one point Labour lead. In the second survey the Tories are now ahead by 2 points, but the changes are within the margin of error – it still looks like a seat on a knife edge.

He then looked at two seats that were effectively three-way marginals in 2010 – Colne Valley and Bristol North West – both seats the Conservatives won with the Lib Dems in second place, but Labour an extremely close third. In both seats the Lib Dems have collapsed completely and they are now Con -v- Lab marginals, in Bristol North West the Conservatives have a healthy nine point lead, in Colne Valley it is again on a knife-edge, with the Tories just two points ahead.

Moving on Lord Ashcroft polled Bristol West. This is one of the few Lib Dem seats we haven’t had a constituency poll of yet, but more interestingly it is one of the Green party’s main target seats for the election. The poll suggests they will fall well short – while it shows the Greens moving up to second place with 25% of the vote, they are far behind Labour on 38%.

Finally Lord Ashcroft polled two UKIP targets. One was Thurrock, an ultra-marginal between Labour and the Conservatives at the last election that appears to be one of UKIP’s best hopes for a gain – here Ashcroft found a four point UKIP lead over Labour in second place, the Tories just a point behind. The other was Rochester and Strood, UKIP’s by-election victory last year. Today’s Ashcroft poll gives the Conservatives the advantage in trying to retake it – CON 36%, LAB 24%, LDEM 3%, UKIP 33%.


587 Responses to “New Lord Ashcroft marginal polls”

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  1. @Bluemoby

    Haven’t seen Survation yet, but last one was Con +4, so Con+3 would be new.

  2. Evening folks,

    This is the first weekend of the campaign I’ve gone into thinking that Ed is going to be PM come the 8th (or shortly afterwards). It’s starting to look as thought the Tories need to either change the narrative dramatically OR rely on a shy Tory effect to win.

  3. RAF

    I can’t see official Yougov or Survation figures anywhere…presume BBC and ppl here have ‘inside’ sources

    ;)

  4. While EB losing would be brilliant, all the polls point to a big majority in Morley and Out wood. Ashcrodt had Balls 41-24 up last may

  5. Whoa,slow down …… wehre are we now

    1.YouGov Lab +2
    2.Opinium Con +1 (from +4 week ago)

    Is there one more to come

  6. @Ray

    Survation/Mail on Sunday.

  7. Could someone kindly point me in the direction of tonights Yougov poll :)

  8. @PETER OULD

    I don’t think shytories really exist anymore? while they made a big difference back in 92. I haven’t seen evidence of the effect since the 97 Lab Landslide. If it does exist it will be very small and not the 3-4 pts Cons need.

  9. @Bramley

    “One day I will remember to refresh the page before posting a comment then I would see that the question had been asked & I might not look as big a fool as I currently feel…. ;)”

    Don’t worry, compared to some on these pages your ‘foolishness’ looks highly competent and logical (and complies with site policy)

  10. RAF

    I thought ComRes was putting one out too, no?

  11. @mikey – sorry thought you were after tomorrow’s results ????

  12. Morley and Outwood is safe for EB. You would need not only a harmonised UKIP-Con block, but also a lot of loss of votes of Labour to Greens and others.

  13. We have to assume the BBC has seen the Survation/MoS, but it’ll be more interesting to see the actual topline numbers: could still be lowballing Labour compared to other polls save Ashcroft (e.g. C33/L30 or C32/L29) or come in with something like C35/L32 that’s more like ComRes and ICM, but unlike their midweeks.

    Survation’s toplines have been wobbling like a four-year-old who’s just had the stablisers taken off his bike.

  14. @BlueMoby

    I don’t know of a ComRes due tonight. As they poll by phone now, I suspect their fieldwork will be taking place at the moment.

  15. Poor form Smithy. I expect better from you tomorrow night.

  16. ROBONTHEROAD

    I know Outwood very well. Strongly Labour, former mining community with council housing and new builds. Wrenthorpe is slightly more affluent and slightly more Tory.

    Calvert was very active last time AND had the benefit of being a fairly popular local councillor and growing up in the constituency. EB hold in my opinion.

  17. LASZLO

    Thank you.

    Not down so much as resigned I think.

    Of course the world won’t end, but I don’t agree that the outcome doesn’t matter.

    Whilst we may agree that the fiscal constraints don’t change, there is a major difference in approach to them.

    There always has been a different attitude to Public Debt between the two main parties. It probably didn’t matter too much before.

    But I really believe that there are risks attaching to these levels of Debt when economic growth ( in US & EU too) is so supported by massive monetary stimulus & ultra low interest rates.

    Another significant economic shock , at this time could have big fiscal consequences for UK in my view.

    So approach to all this is important-and there are differences.Plus UK governance may be headed for an unstable period. at just the wrong time.

    But-its an EU wide phenomenon I think. We may have other “shock” election results to come in EZ.

    Interesting times -if you have the stamina !

  18. @AR558 – I think you’re right, but there’s a little bit of me wondering if somehow the Tories will pull it out of the bag come a week on Thursday. But they’re certainly taking the first half of “coming from behind to win” seriously at the moment aren’t they? :-)

  19. AR558
    “While EB losing would be brilliant”

    In line with the purpose of this site, may I ask which poll that comes from?

  20. @Mikey

    Brain fade from @Smithy. It happens on Saturdays ;)

  21. Comment on Survation/MoS (assuming BBC are right).

    The 3 point lead for the Conservative Party is now something of a pattern for Survation. Today we have two polls: one (YouGov) putting Labour ahead and two (Survation and Opinium) putting Cons ahead. The direction of change in all polls was towards Labour.

    I think we are still in a state of polldrums. Impossible to say that either side is ahead.

    The McWedge strategy is not yet showing up in VI.

  22. Ah thanks RAF…. i thought I read there would be one..apologies.

    Just seen confirmation of YouGov Sunday Times figures on BBC website.

  23. @NORBOLD That would be a poll of CON HQ and me :)

  24. Sorry Mikey – blame the wine

  25. RAF

    I’m worried Smithy might have peaked too soon.

  26. Theresa May – SNP/Lab pact ‘worst crisis since abdication’ is the headline on the front of the Mail.

    The stench of fear.

  27. @Bramley

    Unusually strong from May. I’m surprised. She’s usually more measured. Maybe she’s been misquoted or taken out of context?

  28. “Theresa May – SNP/Lab pact ‘worst crisis since abdication’ is the headline on the front of the Mail.”

    Oh dear. I try to be partisan on here but as @BRAMLEY says that just smacks of utter desperation.

    If the polls don’t move the Conservatives way in the next week I can see the cracks in the ranks beginning to appear.

  29. You Gov

    Lab 34 Con 32 LD 9 UKIP 14 Green 6

  30. Survation, on their website, are talking about a poll they’ve done for the Daily Mirror with fieldwork completed on Wednesday and Thursday last week that seems to have identical figures to the one they conducted for the Mail on Sunday last week. Tories 33 (-1) and Labour 29 (-4).

  31. Latest YouGov poll (24 – 25 Apr):
    LAB – 34% (-1)
    CON – 32% (-1)
    UKIP – 14% (+1)
    LDEM – 9% (+1)
    GRN – 6% (-)

  32. @RAF

    Maybe that’s the strategy? If people think even the measured figures are saying it must be true? Worth I try I guess.

  33. Bramley
    “Theresa May – SNP/Lab pact ‘worst crisis since abdication’ is the headline on the front of the Mail.

    The stench of fear.”

    Would’ve thought WW2 would’ve been in with a shout of ‘worst crisis since abdication’, but hey, what do I know.

  34. @ Bramley

    Clever from Theresa May – linking the imminent Royal baby to voting Conservative.

  35. @CROSSBAT11

    That seems weird that Survation would produce the same outlier-esque figures? Maybe it’s a methodological issue?

  36. From the BBC live election page:

    ‘The Conservatives have responded to Labour’s plan for a real-terms cap on rent rises in the private sector.

    Eric Pickles has tweeted , quoting the Swedish economist Assar Lindbeck: “Rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city except for bombing.”‘

    Without getting too prissy, what an appalling thing to say.

  37. Survation email:

    Headline voting intention (change in brackets from our last Mail on Sunday poll on 21 March 2015):

    CON 33% (+3)
    LAB 30% (-4)
    UKIP 18% (+1)
    LD 9% (-1)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    GRE 4% (+1)
    OTHER 1% (-1)

  38. BTW looks like there’s a storm brewing over private rental prices.

    Labour wants to cap them for 3 years, Tpries have tweeted in response ” “Rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city except for bombing.”

    Very difficult for the Tories to keep bashing Labour on Energy price freeze, bedroom tax, rate cap etc without making themselves look like they are on the side of the rich..

    I think this overall plan from Labour is whats keeping them level pegging with the Tories in the polls.

  39. Crossbat

    First off my predictive text changes your name to crossbar which is appropriate.
    Re Survation didn’t they announce the 33/29 split on Thursday? I think the latest poll from them has Con with a 3 point lead

    PS Give me a shout if you need some maps for Villa’s games in the Championship 2015/16.

  40. Is it possible as it’s for the Mirror they’re “tweaking” the figures to increase Labour turnout?

  41. Survation seem to be all over the place lol

  42. Thanks for that Bramley. I’m finding these Survation polls difficult to follow.

  43. 1) The polls continue to show deadlock even after weeks of supposed “game changers” which have had no measurable effect on VI.

    2) There is no momentum in either Lab and Con which their respective supporters might hope to see sustained to build a lead, and their opponents would hope to see reverse in a late second thoughts from recent converts.

    3) The undecided and non voters are not being presented with any inspiring messages to get them to turn out vote in large numbers or to favour one party over the other.

    That gives us with the following as the main possibilities to separate the two main parties on the day itself:

    a) Events
    b) Swingback
    c) Pollster’s house effect favouring one or the other

    We are running out of time for a) and likewise for b) unless it happens in the polling booth itself.

    That leaves us with house effect as the likely main difference between where we think we are and the result on the day.

    12 more days of polldrums to go.

  44. Latest Survation poll (24 – 25 Apr):
    CON – 33% (-)
    LAB – 30% (+1)
    UKIP – 18% (-)
    LDEM – 9% (-1)
    GRN – 4% (-)

    Great day for Labour you have to say – every poll swung in their favor despite fears over the EM Libya talk.

    The effect of Cameron’s Villagate will be tiny tiny tiny and never show in polls, but could potentially seal in my opinion about 0.1% that were voting UKIP and have now solidified that view.

  45. @bluemoby

    Survation are not all over the place. This is the real change

    CON 33 (=)
    LAB 30 (+1)
    LIB 9 (-1)
    UKIP 18 (=)
    GRN 4 (=)

    @bramley

    I’m pretty sure those changes are wrong

  46. Mac

    It’s not the Royal baby that Theresa is thinking about, it’s the other ‘baby’ – Boris.

  47. two polls so far tonight:

    Survation/Mail on Sun:
    CON 33 (=)
    LAB 30 (+1)
    LIB 9 (-1)
    UKIP 18 (=)
    GRN 4 (=)

    Dates 24th-25th

    YouGov/Times:
    CON 32 (-1)
    LAB 34 (-1)
    LIB 9 (+1)
    UKIP 14 (+1)
    GRN 6 (=)

    Fieldwork 24th-25th

  48. That makes more sense.

  49. @geoff
    “Great day for Labour you have to say”

    Eh I’m not sure. Loads of people were saying the last Survation was an outlier. This poll makes that unlikely.

    What we’re seeing is the continuation of divergence in phone/online polls

  50. 33/30 from Survation, so basically the same as their Thursday for the Mirror, only difference a point to Lab from LD.

    There are now two subgroups of C+ polls: most have Labour at 32% and up, but only Ashcroft and Survation have L below 31 this month. Only Survation and Panelbase are giving UKIP over 16%, and Panelbase has been L+ in recent weeks.

    Weighting? Likely voter screen?

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