Lord Ashcroft has released a good selection of new constituency polls, covering some interesting constituencies. Full details are here.

The least intersting is probably High Peak – a largely run of the mill Con -v- Lab marginal. Ashcroft previously polled it in February, finding a wafer thin one point Labour lead. In the second survey the Tories are now ahead by 2 points, but the changes are within the margin of error – it still looks like a seat on a knife edge.

He then looked at two seats that were effectively three-way marginals in 2010 – Colne Valley and Bristol North West – both seats the Conservatives won with the Lib Dems in second place, but Labour an extremely close third. In both seats the Lib Dems have collapsed completely and they are now Con -v- Lab marginals, in Bristol North West the Conservatives have a healthy nine point lead, in Colne Valley it is again on a knife-edge, with the Tories just two points ahead.

Moving on Lord Ashcroft polled Bristol West. This is one of the few Lib Dem seats we haven’t had a constituency poll of yet, but more interestingly it is one of the Green party’s main target seats for the election. The poll suggests they will fall well short – while it shows the Greens moving up to second place with 25% of the vote, they are far behind Labour on 38%.

Finally Lord Ashcroft polled two UKIP targets. One was Thurrock, an ultra-marginal between Labour and the Conservatives at the last election that appears to be one of UKIP’s best hopes for a gain – here Ashcroft found a four point UKIP lead over Labour in second place, the Tories just a point behind. The other was Rochester and Strood, UKIP’s by-election victory last year. Today’s Ashcroft poll gives the Conservatives the advantage in trying to retake it – CON 36%, LAB 24%, LDEM 3%, UKIP 33%.


587 Responses to “New Lord Ashcroft marginal polls”

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  1. If the polls dont move in the next couple of day do you think we will see some movement from tories on who will replace Cameron as leader?

  2. RAF

    Does sound unusual for May. Just as it was odd of Fallon to utter the “stab brother in the back” remark about Miliband.

    T May has been told by L Crosby to say that, just as Fallon was.

  3. forgot 3rd poll:

    NumbrCrunchrPolitics @NCPoliticsUK

    Opinium/Observer:
    CON 34 (-2)
    LAB 33 (+1)
    LIB 9 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (=)
    GRN 6 (+1)

    Dates 21st-24th

  4. Those latest Survation changes now make sense with Con lead reduced by 1 point.
    Geoff I wouldn’t say its a great day for Labour as they are down in two out of three polls. At very best they are level with Con.

  5. @smithy

    “@mikey – sorry thought you were after tomorrow’s results ????”

    “”Poor form Smithy. I expect better from you tomorrow night.”

    Smithy is going to give todays results tomorrow. I predict he is going them exactly right !!!

  6. Survation polls until recently nearly always showed Labour leads. Now they are starting to show Tory leads. The complete opposite to YG , which are now showing mainly Labour leads.

  7. Omnishambles

    I quoted directly from Survation’s email. If they are wrong, perhaps you should contact them & point out where their error has been made.

  8. A tweet from ‘another place’ giving these figures from Survation:-

    % of UKIP vote from 2010 Lab voters;-

    9/4….8.6%
    17/4..7.2%
    23/4..14.7%
    25/4..19.3%

  9. AR558

    Definitely not. The Tories have to see how May 7th works out before Cameron’s position is decided. Same for Miliband.

  10. @ Colin

    I think (!) I understand your points. I really hope AW will allow my post to go through.

    Monetary policy is working against fiscal policy. And if deflation comes in (I really don’t know), it will be worse. But it has been like this at least since 1994, but hasn’t been in the open. It will, though, lead to an open struggle between governments and central banks. So, I expect no change here. Free money. However it could go on its head, and go to an inflationary cycle (my favourite solution back in 2010).

    China (and Russia) is a major, major issue. China has huge capacities, thus it must utilise them, while there is not enough demand. Inventories are up in every part of the Chinese economy. The Chinese government has huge resources, but these are limited relative to the timescale and the problem. The economic and political consequences of even a mild Chinese recession cannot be calculated.

    The debt of the UK is essentially (provisionally also by middle earners, but they will be (are already) compensated) paid for by the poor and the savers. They cannot form an alliance, and individually they are too weak, so it will continue like this. It really would be easier to inflate it away.

    The next recession is perhaps not more than 2 years away. The 2001 recession (not registered as such in the UK) was compensated by the financial sector, which had to compensate t by asset based securities and other tools. When it couldn’t carry it on, it declared its own investments worthless, and was compensated (to a degree) by the governments. I don’t know where is the next buffer. Banks are deleveraging, but firms less so. And there is a public debt (78 or 72 percents are irrelevant).

    Because of all these uncertainties I say that the two main parties would do the same within a safety buffer.

  11. Given the differences between the polling companies it should be possible to tell if the polls are moving by looking at the direction of change in each of their results. it does not, however, follow that because nothing much seems to change and an average of the polls suggests level pegging between Cons and Lab that actually they are level. They could be, But equally it could be that some companies have got it more right than others.

  12. OMNISHAMBLES

    The change numbers for Survation are based on last week’s MoS poll, not Thursday’s Mirror poll, for “who’s paying us to do this” reasons.

    I’d agree that there’s a phone/online divergence pattern, which in turn makes convergence unlikely in the last 11 days of polling.

  13. There is supposedly a Panelbase Scotland poll for the Sunday Times due tonight. Panelbase were definitely polling for a Scottish poll last week so we have that to come.

  14. @Ar558 maybe not that blatant but I can see cracks appearing in the Tory ranks.

    They aren’t good at holding it together when things go this wrong.

    Only a couple of months ago most ppl would have thought the Tories would be well ahead in the polls…maybe not enough for majority but clearly the largest party.

  15. @mikey

    Hmm You would think that would be sensible but if they are looking at defeat (I.e no feasible math to get a Con+LD/DUP maj) then surely Cameron will quit and not spend any time as LOHMO.and some people are more ambitious than is sensible.

  16. FAOD the Survation email I copied from can be found here:

    http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=ca4c56b5a1&e=5723e75994

  17. @robontheroad

    Are you off to the hustings at Village Hotel on Monday?

    (I know we should be on the M & O page)

  18. CATOSWYN

    It’s less than an hour since I wrote about the Tory campaign “…robbing them of the opportunity to play lines like don’t let Labour wreck it.”

    and the Telegraph very kindly put this up “David Cameron: We’ve saved the economy from ruin – don’t let Ed Miliband spoil it ”

    How kind.

  19. @ar558

    No

    @bramley
    “If they are wrong, perhaps you should contact them & point out where their error has been made.”

    I might just do that. They’re being silly. Instead of showing the changes from their LAST poll, they’re showing the changes from the previous poll with THAT paper. Confusing and pointless.

    Truly, this country is going to the dogs

  20. @Ray

    If there’s a Lab-Ukip move how come no-one else is picking it up? Survation has always had higher Ukip figures than most. When they were showing large Lab leads the Ukip vote seemed to come from Con, now they say it’s coming from Lab. I suspect their method and weightings may be a bit wonky.

  21. One way of looking at todays polls:

    None of todays polls show no improvement for Tories relative to Lab.
    Two of three show an improvement for Labour relative to Tories.

  22. @holgate

    Yep

  23. new thread

  24. Sorry let me do that again removing the typo:

    One way of looking at todays polls:

    0 show improvement for Tories relative to Lab.
    2 show an improvement for Labour relative to Tories
    1 shows no change in lead.

  25. LASZLO

    I didn’t mean to prompt an economic exchange.

    We both have our own views no doubt.

    And I believe that there is a political difference of some significance inherant in the GE outcomes.

    Anyway-we will see over the next year or so.

    Polls are strange aren’t they ? Don’t think anyone has a clue about the outcome.

    Its going to be one helluva night when the results come in.

  26. @profhoward

    And all show the Lib Dems on 9%

    It’s kind of pathetic that I’m encouraged by that. How depressing.

  27. @Colin

    I know something for sure – they can’t all be right! Now…if only I knew which one was right….

  28. RAF

    Its certainly not a “science” is it?

    It just has its limits I suppose & can’t cope with this degree of convergence, churn, fragmentation & all round buggeration factors.

    Still-we know its going to be close lol.

  29. Survation has UKIP as highest party in Welsh VIs. Anyone any ideas on why?

  30. EXILEINYORKS

    See… you’re setting the agenda!

  31. The supplementary questions for Survation are… interesting. Cameron is out of touch, Miliband is weak, Farage could fix a wonky door handle…

    The questions on who’d have the upper hand between Miliband and Sturgeon, and whether E&W would be better off with Scotland independent than influencing politics, suggest that the “Fear The Fierce Scottish Lady” campaign from CCHQ has had at least some purchase.

    But… some of those questions (such as the question about the legitimacy of a Lab/SNP pact) are borderline push-poll, and seem designed to generate shouty Mail headlines. Perhaps polling on the role of the DUP is too abstruse, but if you’re going to ask which leader will cook you the best meal, then you can ask about that.

  32. If there’s a Lab-Ukip move how come no-one else is picking it up?

    Because the change in LAB-UKIP movement over those four Survation polls is about 10 people.

    Survation has UKIP as highest party in Welsh VIs. Anyone any ideas on why?

    Because only 30 Welsh people were polled.

    Both meaningless in polling terms.

  33. Does anyone else think that the Tory campaign is really getting desperate, Fallon’s backstabber comment, then the Salmond video, then May’s crisis claim and now Pickle’s bombing city comment. I can’t see any of this helping them.

  34. How come Ashcroft never mentions Waveney?
    All three parties are running neck and neck.

  35. Just a glimmer of hope, however we may just be
    seeing some movement towards the Tories.

    May be clearer over the next few days.

  36. Waveney a clear labour gain. Great Yarmouth, a neighbour, closer, but will go labour by about 2%. Hold me to it.

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