As well as today’s GB voting intention polls Survation have released a new poll of Thanet South commissioned by the UKIP donor Alan Bown. The poll shows Nigel Farage with a nine point lead over the Conservatives in second place, full topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 26%, LDEM 2%, UKIP 39%, GRN 2% (tabs).

The poll is broadly in line with Survation’s previous poll in Thanet South, which was conducted back in February and showed Farage with an eleven point lead. However, it contrasts with the ComRes poll of the same constituency earlier this month which showed the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour all neck-and-neck.

I wrote about the differences between the ComRes and Survation polling in Thanet South earlier this month here. In short there are some obvious contrasts between the two companies approaches – how they deal with don’t knows, for example – but neither are obviously doing anything wrong, so there is no particularly reason to think one or the other is right. I guess in two weeks we will know who is ahead in Thanet South and how tight the race really is (though even then, we’ll never know for sure how tight the race is right now, or how tight it was in early April, or back in February.)


613 Responses to “Survation poll of Thanet South”

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  1. Ray
    Why does DC need to deliver an OM?

  2. @Amber Star
    “Hague: We had lots of plans around diplomatic relations, elections, oil and such like.
    Interviewer: Did any of them succeed?
    Hague: Not as such, no.
    Interviewer: So you had plans but they failed?
    Hague: I suppose you could say that.”

    Admittedly we are a bit tipsy, but both my husband and I fell about laughing after reading this.

  3. New thread.

  4. AdanB

    He doesn’t, many people said though that he could/would this time. And back in late 2013, I think the very first swingback model predicted one.

  5. The incumbency factor will be far less this time because there is an abnormal amount of sitting MP’s retiring.

  6. @ Balbs,

    Before the advent of colour television party colours were locally determined and showed a lot of variation (although of course there were national trends). Labour were green in some places because they’d chosen it to show support for Irish independence in 1916.

    I guess some constituencies took a while to catch up to the modern broadcasting era!

    (And actually you still see the green in some Welsh Labour rosettes, although that maybe a Welsh stealing-Plaid-Cymru’s-thunder thing rather than a longstanding local tradition: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxITHZWIAArjg7.jpg)

  7. RAYFROMTHENORTH

    I don’t believe swathes of voters rush out to vote for their fantastic new MP for one minute. There are over factors that could give the same outcome. Like I said earlier today, it’s more likely IMO to be the past and current voting of tactical voters.

    I gave the example of the ‘pre-squeezed’ red dems. There’s less 3rd party voters in marginals available to vote against the government parties because they were already squeezed last time.

  8. Cloudspotter

    I hear you, but as I say incumbency bounce is a measurable effect in the US where it’s invariably a straight Rep/Dem fight and in Aussie where they have ranked voting. Something must cause that.

  9. “From memory I think Maggie went 44,43,42% at her elections”

    43.9%, 42.4%, 42.2%….remarkable consistency’

    Those are UK figures. The corresponding GB shares were 44.9%. 43.5%, 43.3%

  10. @Tony Dean
    Thanks for that run-down of historical party colours. I half-remembered bits of it, but you seem to be the oracle on that!

  11. YouGov should be made to report early on a Friday!
    Anthony, over to you – get that sorted would you please

  12. My mother, a Labour Party activist in Thanet South was one of the respondees to this poll – she says she thought it was very heavily UKIP biased! Before asking they voting intention question she was asked her top three priorities but only given a choice of six which included:
    getting out of Europe
    Cutting the aid budget
    Controls on immigration
    the NHS
    Saving Manson airport
    Local homes for local people

    She said the last three but to me (as an overseas Lib Dem voter in Guildford) this sounds incredibly biased! Definitely see why this poll should be taken with a pinch of salt!

  13. Is it true that Ashcroft’s polls has the Tories ahead of Labour in Scotland ,by 9 points and 1 point in the north of England?

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