Thursday’s polls

Earlier on today we had a new poll from Panelbase, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Full tables are here. I’m expecting quite a few polls out tonight – Survation’s regular poll for the Mirror is due, we have the daily YouGov poll for the Sun and there may well be others to boot.

I’ll be out this evening, but will do a round up of them all once I return. In the meantime feel free to discuss them here as they appear.

UPDATE: On top of the Panelbase poll we have three other GB voting intention polls, from ComRes, Survation and YouGov:

  • Survation’s latest poll for the Mirror has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs).
  • ComRes’s latest telephone poll for the Mail & ITV has toplines of CON 36%, LAB 32%, LAB 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5% (tabs)
  • YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

Looking at reactions on social media there are lots of people getting excited or dismayed by getting two Conservative four point leads in short succession. There is always a temptation to look for movement in the random variation of polls (especially when there has been so little genuine movement to get excited over!). However, there are four polls today – two Conservative leads, two Labour leads. The time to pay attention would be when the balance of the polls consistently starts showed one party or the other ahead, right now they still seem pretty evenly balanced.


451 Responses to “Thursday’s polls”

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  1. Anthony. Thank you, as always.

    Three Per cent lead looks high, as does Lib Dem figure of 7%. Just my opinion.

  2. Ooo, lovely. A poll. Still within MOE but no obvious shify yet for the Conservatives despite them throwing a lot at it this week with the ‘vote Labour, get SNP’ stuff. No traction then.

  3. That ‘shify’ should be ‘shift’.

  4. Wasn’t most of this poll taken after the video of Salmond?

    If so, it won’t be until tonight when we get to see the impact. A 1% Tory lead, representing a 1% swing from Lab to Tory, will be absolutely massive and proof beyond any doubt that that video was a game-changer.

  5. *before*

  6. Even though all of these poll results bar some, are within the MOE, Labour have been ahead in so many polls recently, can we glean anything from that?

    Just looking at the “latest voting intention” graph on the front page, which only goes upto 17th April, Labour are up in 15, tied in 4 and Conservatives up in 6.

    I’m not sure what has happened specifically in polling since 17th but my perception would be that the general trend is there as well.

    As a rookie to understanding VI, does this suggest that Labour will in fact win the most votes?

  7. The fieldwork for this poll straddles the Salmond video I think.

  8. Geoff

    Are you being ironic? I’m finding it increasingly hard to tell at this stage of a long wearying stalemate.

  9. http://news.sky.com/story/1467710/stand-up-be-counted-heading-to-cardiff

    In which I talked about turnout from people aged “16-24” and didn’t notice my mistake.

  10. If there is going to be a swing now it is most likely to happen in the last 24 hours.

    This could well be such an election….

  11. ChrisLane1945

    My guess would be that this one is a bit high on UKIP and a bit low on the Tories.

    I feel for the polling companies, because it must be really tricky to know how to adjust for the UKIP vote. Same in Scotland, the polls could be a bit out because of the size of the shift (although I don’t think anyone can be in any doubt that the SNP vote will be very large).

  12. @MAGPIE

    I was :)

  13. l don’t think that the video of Salmond will make the teeniest bit of difference. lt was obvious that he was joking – hence the peals of laughter which followed what he said. If the Tories think this will bring home the bacon they really are desperate. The same goes for any of their supporters who believe that tosh.

  14. Mr N

    Slow down!

  15. I think most people will have seen Salmond’s comments as a joke, but I suppose shifting the emphasis on to Salmond could give the Tories a temporary boost (or not). But game changer…… I think not.

  16. There being no regional/national crossbreaks makes it difficult to know if LDs are holding up in core areas. SNP at 4% presumably keep their hopes high for 40+ gains from Labour and the LDs.

    The Salmond video will have no real effect, I am sure, as people have much more sense than DC gives them credit for. Anyone who is not already worried about the SNP exercising their democratic mandate is hardly going to start being worried now, are they?

  17. There is a poll by ComRes for Forces TV that shows the difference in attitudes to Trident in England and Scotland

    How important is a commitment to maintaining Trident

    Important England 56% Scotland 35%
    Unimportant England 29% Scotland 59%

    That doesn’t of course mean that 59% of Scots don’t want Trident but it is a fair indication that the SNP position is garnering support.

  18. @OBERTA

    I have not been able to understand at all why the odds on Labour getting most votes are so long, when you consider that while the polls show it is close, it seems pretty clear that there is more likely an underlying tiny Labour lead than a Tory one.

    Even if they were exactly equal then I’d expect 1.93 to be the odds for both parties, but Labour are 3.5 with some bookies to have most seats.

    I can only assume punters are expecting swingback still (or that the polls are wrong) but I do find it puzzling I must admit.

  19. BristolianHoward,

    I was 20 minutes late meeting a friend!

  20. Sorry, I mean 3.5 with bookies to have most VOTES, not most seats.

  21. I wonder what you do when a tabloid chooses not to (or can’t) get a joke. Do you say to yourself,as a subscriber, oh dear, do they think I’m stupid, or do you jut sigh and turn to the page with the pictures of wardrobe malfunctions?

  22. Geoff

    Phew.

    Mind you, we might yet see a ten point ‘Boris bounce’, or Milifandom might spread to people who actually have a vote and be the game changer…

    (I’ve more or less given up guessing at this stage, just following it and wondering how it will all fall out.)

  23. Salmond interview? No influence. Undecided wont care. They are more interested in jobs , wages, schools, prices and NHS.

  24. UKIP on 17% so looks like an outlier.

  25. @Magpie and ChrisLane et al

    UKIP at 17% and Tories at 31%. Is this higher for UKIP than previous ComRes polls? If not, does this mean that the Tories are losing VIs to the LDs?

  26. I set out below a prediction which I doubt events will prove wrong:

    1. At some point tonight someone will come on this site and state they have seen it tweeted that the YouGov poll shows Tories with a 11% lead.

    2. Regular on this site will be up in arms and ask for the evidence, but also be timid in suggesting perhaps this might be a troll.

    3. there will be another tweet copied and pasted from a Sun reporter that tonight’s poll is very interesting.

    4. over 100 posts will be expended deliberating whether interesting means Labour or Tories have a significant lead.

    5. Yougov poll will come out at 10.30 showing one party or other has a 1 point lead.

    6. Sarcastic remarks will be made about SNP / Salmond / coalition being a game changer (not) will be made.

    7. We will all go to bed, and same ritual will happen tomorrow.

  27. GEOFF

    I wonder if the odds are still long because they are taking into account that a percentage of that Labour vote is coming from former Lib Dems in seats which will not translate into Labour seats. I myself still feel Labour will come in at about 261-269 with Conservatives slightly above them in the 270’s (may be higher depending on the UKIP vote holding up or not) Nothing to do with swing from my point of view just that I can’t see Labour taking more than about 40 seats from the Conservatives and given the losses in Scotland it is going to be a hard ask to get much higher.

    Hope I’m wrong of course as I’m a Labour supporter but that is what I think right now.

  28. @Barnaby Marder – I’m not so sure that you’re right. It rather depends how the Tories package their warnings. From what I’ve heard, second or third-hand via the media, you could be right because it seems that they’re trying to say that Salmond is directly threatening to write a Labour budget. However, if their approach is a bit more measured, I think that they could score strongly in England and Wales if they say something along the lines of, “Yes, it was a joke but really how far is that joke from what would actually happen?” Acknowledging that it was a joke but playing with it seems to me to be the obvious way to play on people’s concerns about the possibility of a Labour government that gives too many concessions to gain SNP support.

  29. Many more of those intending to vote LD (in comparison with those intending to vote for the other major parties) have respond that they may still change their mind:

    Con 24%
    Lab 18%
    LD 43%
    SNP 6%
    UKIP 23%

    Just an observation. ;-)

  30. @LWVG

    Response to yours at the end of the last thread.

  31. AA – can I use your post as a springboard to ask posters not to forecast the 1030 YG poll, what is the point as such post just make catching up a longer process.

    I can say in total honesty that my reaction to a 6% Labour Lead and a Conservative one would be the same as indeed it will be 2 a 2% lead for either.

    Meaningless in isolation.

  32. @ Aberdeenangus

    My instinct tells me you are right, but Honest Sid, my local turf accountant is still making a tweet from Michael Caine saying he likes apple crumble favourite so you can’t be.

    The bookies are never wrong.

  33. Daily geometric median report w/ changes since yesterday
    con: 33.5 (-0.1)
    lab: 34.2 (-0.1)
    lib: 7.9 (-0.1)
    ukip: 13.6 (+0.1)
    grn: 4.9 (-)
    oth: 5.8 (+0.1)

    Polldrums.

  34. John B

    No, the UKIp figure is an outlier. Considering part of the countries where UKIP would be get to nothing, 17% doesnt tie in at all with the poll yesterday. They’ll be back at 13%-14% in the other polls today I’m sure

    adam

  35. David K,

    that 6% SNP actually represents a big chunk of the Scottish LibDem vote!

    oh and if anyone is curious, by which I mean curiosity as opposed to just odd, I may be in a clip on Newsnight tonight of the SNP shop in Dingwall.

    I am the guy in the blue T-shirt handing out big signs for someones garden!!!

    Not even 15sec of fame, but it does prove I actually exist!

    Peter.

  36. David K

    If 6% of SNP VIs go elsewhere that isn’t going to change things very much, although it will mean that some of the more extreme forecasts will need to be abandoned.
    But the indication that 94% are steadfast in their intention to vote SNP seems to confirm what has been obvious to many since last October. September 18 changed everything – at least for the time being.

    Can’t we just call it a day, vote and get it over with?

  37. Can I make the general comment that we are now going into the dead period when the politicians are going through the motions, but large numbers of people have already cast their postal votes. Of course the political apparatchiks will have a good idea how they have been cast, but they are not allowed to say.

    My dream result nationally would be for Labour to do just badly enough that they cannot form a Government by giving yet more favours to the SNP. But I cannot help feeling that the polls are in fact underestimating the Torv vote – I have actually been thinking this for months.

    There’s not much for non-aligned tekkies like me to do now except wait for the result.

  38. AdamB

    Thanks for yours of 5.52. Pity really, because it would be good fun to have a really strong UKIP showing at this stage……… at least it would reduce the boredom! Or is it a tense silence as everyone steels themselves for two more weeks of skating on thin ice?

  39. Sergio

    Bear in mind panelbase are new and we haven’t seen enough polls to get a good feel of the house effects that give a “good” VI for UKIP, but they do seem to generally do well compared to other pollsters somewhere between 2 and 3% higher than the average.

    It could just be the pollsters systematic differences in methods which are responsible for the 17%. I’m not commenting on whether they are right or wrong as there does seem to be two distinct stories being told by pollsters. (split largely along Online vs Telephone polling)

  40. I think UKIP is too high against what other polls say and what is likely to be the outcome – some comfort for the Tories.

  41. @JOHN B

    I was wondering more about which way the potential change in VI of the LDs was going to break.

    The Tory negative campaigning of the last week wont play well to LD waverers, I feel.

  42. Alan @ 18.01

    I suppose it could be argued that the ‘phone pollers have somehow picked up the swingback that all the Fisher et al models are factoring in

  43. aberdeenangus

    I am impressed, you have managed to read the minds of many, but not all.

  44. @ Mr Nameless (5.27)

    No longer Mr Nameless :-)

  45. If there is a difference between online and telephone polls how much of it is a difference between weekend and weekday polls?

    Telephone polls are mostly done at weekends I understand.

  46. He is Mr Robin Nameless, I think

  47. RAYFROMTHENORTH

    It’s possible that the act of telling another person is taken more seriously than an online tickbox which simulates the “polling booth reflection time” better.

    Who knows how seriously the average Kipper takes their vote though, it’s quite possible the online guys are right. {anecdote}The couple of Kippers I know seem to treat it as a bit of a laugh.{/anecdote)

  48. Everything now seems to hang on the UKIP vote and this is well demonstrated by the panelbase tables. The 2010 conservative to UKIP churn seems to be the important number and this looks high compared to others. Of course it could be correct but it makes me wonder if the panel holds too many blue kippers. We would have to know more about people’s internet usage and propensity to complete online polls, to be sure.

  49. YouGov polls

    I wonder if there is any pressure on them to do a few polls on the old methodology (from a sample of the entire online panel) rather than the new restricted panel

  50. Does anyone know when pollsters stopped doing high street polling?

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