Last night’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. The one point Tory lead is actually the first for twelve days. Usual caveats apply of course, it’s well within normal sample variation and is a single poll.

The Sun also have some YouGov polling testing out the potential of the Conservative’s attack on the risk of a Labour/SNP deal, which in recent days appears to have become the dominant thrust of their campaign. Results are here. As all my regular readers will know, questions saying “will X make you more likely to vote Y” are essentially rubbish – if they work, you’ll see it in the topline figures. This was an attempt to measure the potential for a message, to gauge how many people might agree with the message itself, as only then can they be persuaded by it. Essentially it went through the various steps and assumptions of the Tory argument, to see how many people were open to it – kicking out those people who actually quite like the idea of an SNP deal, don’t think it would actually happen or would still prefer it to the Tories.

So, about a third of people are already voting Tory, so it doesn’t matter if they buy into the narrative or not, they can only vote Tory once. Next there is whether or not people actually think a Labour and SNP deal is a realistic option – 39% of people, including most Labour voters, think there either won’t be a hung Parliament or that Labour would not enter into any sort of agreement with the SNP. Then there are 8% of people who think that a Labour government with SNP support is likely, and would be a good thing, the Conservative argument will fall flat with them. Finally YouGov asked the remainder if they’d prefer a Conservative government to a Labour-SNP deal and took away those 6% respondents who thought a Labour government reliant on SNP support was a bad thing but would still prefer it to a Tory government.

Take away all those groups and YouGov were left with 8% of the electorate who think a Lab/SNP deal of some sort is likely AND think this would be a bad thing AND think a Tory government would be preferable BUT are not already voting Tory. That’s actually a significant chunk of people and is presumably the voters who the Conservative party are targetting with their current campaign – they are mostly made up of don’t knows, Lib Dems and Ukippers, the message seems to have very little potential to move people directly from Labour to the Tories. The challenge for the Tories is how many (if any) of that 8% of people they can get to go that one step further and vote Tory. The early weeks of the Tory campaign didn’t seem to have any effect on voters at all – this message does at least seem to have potential for them. Whether or not they manage to translate it into votes remains to be seen.


456 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

1 7 8 9 10
  1. AR558

    There has been quite a lot of discussion about how the various parties might hook up post election in the context of what the polls are saying might be the results/numbers involved. Of course we all have preferred options and its good to see someone very passionate and involved with poltics as you are. However we don’t have any remit here to discuss WHY we prefer options according to our poltical beliefs or detailed debates on such things. We also try to avoid emotive language and derogatory comments about other people’s views.

  2. Yougov ,34-34 of course and 13,8,5

  3. Thought Farage did quite well in that interview with Evan Davis.

  4. @wood
    “if you want the least moderated political speech, try 4chans /pol board”

    Heh. Indeed.

  5. PROFHOWARD

    He certainly seemed to have Evan Davis on the backfoot. I only caught a small section of it but you couldn’t tell who was interviewing who. :-)

  6. @Profhoward
    Did Davis really accuse Farage of hating Paddington Bear?

    Almost sounds worth watching…bbc complaints website is offline due to too much traffic.

  7. Evan Davis isn’t the strongest of interviewers.
    I think we only have the Question Time with the leaders next Thursday night left.

  8. Apologises for that last comment Rich – poor attempt at humour

  9. I found Davis irritating. All those twiddly questions about who said what when and then a tiny bit on the manifesto. I thought Farage did well.

  10. Wood

    Evans said that Farage “hated” the multicultural message of Paddington. Farage was able to point out that this is a strong word.

    Thought Evan Davis somehow screwed up in the interview.

    The worst part was that Evan played a clip of Farage talking on Fox News about “no go areas” in Paris, but the clip didn’t make clear it was about Paris. And Evan tried to pass it off as though it was about the UK.

    Farage was able to say that his comments were about Paris. (Which I think is accurate). And Evan tried to claim again “we are talking about the UK”.

    That’s bad research by Evan’s team.

    Moreover, Evan (who I normally think is ok) seemed perhaps a bit of a snob about UKIP, and I think that kind of helped Farage to fight his corner.

    I think UKIP supporters will have found the interview very good.

  11. CATOSWYN

    Yes I agree.

    Was *any* of that interview about policy ideas?

    It seemed 100% about the tone. Which is really somewhat superficial.

    Finding a UKIP councillor who said something stupid on facebook – I think that’s not very interesting.

    Someone like Andrew Neill is very good on the policy detail, I think he would be much better.

  12. @ Profhoward

    I will look at it, but NF did say it about the UK on Fox News a little bit later than that defence experts. I saw it.

  13. PROF HOWARD
    “the multicultural message of Paddington”

    Sounds like some undergrad dissertation.

  14. BBC quiz on voting
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32399114

    I got 4/10

  15. I wonder if @AW posts BTL on UKPR under a pseudonym. I wonder…

  16. Didn’t see Farage, but after the debates not really working for him, he was badly in need of a good performance in a high profile event.

    UKIP have been crowded out of the news agenda with the SNP surge and the Tories attack line on Nasty Nicola and the Scary SNP. UKIP really need to get on the front foot and gain some more attention to help their chances in their target seats and boost their national VI.

    After their high vote share in the Euro elections and sustaining media attention with their defections / bye election wins they must be feeling that it should have been going better than this.

  17. @ExileinYorks

    Ukip are doing OK. 13-15% nationally in a GE isn’t bad at all for a fairly new UK party. They just need to learn to concentrate their vote in target seats.

  18. Meanwhile in the other FPTP contests (Champions League football) tonight we have been among the goal-drums – unlike the decisive results (swings) that we had yesterday!

    Will the contests have to go to a recount? (extra-time) Or even a coin toss? (penalties)

  19. RAF
    “I wonder if @AW posts BTL on UKPR under a pseudonym. I wonder…”

    The real question is whether Grant Schapps is here somewhere……

  20. @David In France

    Adding to Holgate’s points, I think that some of the votes Labour would have picked up in a ‘normal’ election have gone to UKIP or the greens.
    Your question of how soft is that lead is difficult to answer. The UKIP/green VI in marginals may be soft but may break fairly evenly to the two main parties, meaning the lead could be quite resilient.

  21. @Catoswyn

    Lol!

  22. “There is an interesting debate to be had about why positive economic news doesn’t seem to have had any impact on the polls. Some take the view that there is a world of difference between the aggregated economic metrics such as GDP and the experience of people on the ground.

    Another view is that it is the differential impact that dulls the positives (broadly speaking, if you’re in a position where you have seen the benefits you were already probably in the government’s camp). ”

    @TheSheep

    I’ve been thinking about this in relation to recent breakdowns of VI by 2010 vote. My suspicion is that the CONs have gained as much credit for the economy as they’re going to get. They have a good chunk of 2010 LD voters and probably much of the centre ground. If they hadn’t lost 5% of their 2010 to UKIP they’d be at 40-41% right now and on course for a comfortable majority.

    Even with a strong economy under Blair, the CONs took 32% of the vote in 2001 and 2005. There is a rump of support for each of the major parties that likely won’t be swayed no matter the growth rate. Labour have hung on to their rump and supplemented it with disillusioned LDs.

    So the rise of UKIP and the splintering of the LDs are perhaps the key to understanding the level pegging between the big two.

  23. Speaking of Grant Shapps, do we think the Wikipedia story is going anywhere? Will Shapps sue?

  24. Catoswyn

    I thought he was you…

    Double bluff?

  25. If like me you sometimes wonder where the seats are that we keep discusson here this is a great resource…

    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/

  26. And after this is all over I would gladly chip in to buy Anthony a preview button

  27. CATOSWYN

    LOL

    Is there a Michael Green anywhere here?

  28. RAF

    I don’t think they are doing badly. It just shows how incredibly hard it is to break through in our FPTP system. UKIP have been unlucky that an election in which they could have been the big momentum story with a lot of media attention that the NS and SNP have captured the headlines.

    As I discussed in an earlier post I have a suspicion that the Tories focus on the SNP may at least in part be an attempt to keep attention away from UKIP.

  29. I’ve noticed a few people here putting a ‘c’ into Grant Shapps’s name. I have a suspicion that this is because the average UKPR poster has a heavy fondness for schnapps…

  30. Is anyone watching Ballot Monkeys on C4?

    Watched it last night. its the sort of thing us political geeks enjoy.

  31. @ Tony Dean,

    If UKIP are being squeezed by as much as the ComRes poll indicates, why haven’t the Tories pulled well ahead yet? I’m slightly puzzled because if RedKippers are moving to balance things, what has moved them?

    Possibilities:

    1. Kippers hated Miliband. If his ratings have gone up, that might help him win back some Redkippers.

    2. The proximity of the election concentrates the mind, but not necessarily in the direction the Tories want. The Kippers are very economically pessimistic, and the Tories are billing themselves as the “continue on present course” party. If they decide to cast a non-protest vote, it seems quite plausible that some of them would cast it to secure a change of government. Back in 2012 when Ukip were at 5% Labour were at 45%. Some of that is just general mid-term swing and some of it has gone to the SNP and the Greens, but some of those people were Tory -> Lab switchers. If they go “home” anywhere, it may be to Labour.

  32. Alex Salmonds joke / comment earlier was certainly interesting. I wonder if Labour will try and capitalise on it as being presumptious / triumphalist?

    It kind of reminded me of the Sheffield Rally and Kinnock which many people believe lost Lab some support in 1992.

  33. EXILEINYORKS

    I think for UKIP any national election campaign will be difficult and they are doing as well as they can. Their rise has been very fast and they are still a very new party. In a national election when the ‘big beasts’ crank up and lumber forth it is going to be hard. For quite some time Nigel has been the ‘go to’ commentator on Westminster politics which has given him a distinctive and different voice that is able to be heard quite clearly. In this campaign that distinctiveness has been eroded. He is now one of many parties clamouring for coverage.

  34. BLUEBOB
    Is anyone watching Ballot Monkeys on C4?
    Watched it last night. its the sort of thing us political geeks enjoy.

    I loved it. Very clever how they got the real events of the day into the piece.

  35. So are Lab ahead in tonight’s YG given it hasn’t been leaked?

  36. @Gary O

    Salmond has been around Scottish politics for a long time, I think we know when he is joking. The story makes the MSM & the Tories look absolutely ridiculous it is one of the most stupid pieces of spin ever.

  37. “The real question is whether Grant Schapps is here somewhere…”

    ,,,,,,,and how about Grant Shapps, where’s he I wonder?

  38. ‘Is anyone watching Ballot Monkeys on C4?
    Watched it last night. its the sort of thing us political geeks enjoy.’

    Bluebob

    Loved it!

  39. Omni
    re the BBC quiz I got 6/10 though I have to confess some were guesses

  40. The point of the joke is it is self-deprecating, the joke is the idea that he (Salmond) will write the budget but maybe rUK doesn’t get Scottish humour.

  41. @ BH

    It must be AW. He’s the only one who edits posts.

  42. MICROMARK

    The record for the longest penalty shootout came in 2005 when the Namibian Cup had to be settled by a record-breaking 48 spot-kicks.
    In that game, KK Palace held their nerve to defeat the Civics 17-16 following a 2-2 draw in normal time.

    See http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/29338700

    Don’t quite see how that relates to plurality voting, though. A recount requires waiting rather than exertion and a tied count must be settled by a strictly EITHER/OR method chosen by the returning officer.

  43. Couper2802

    I have to admit I only just this minute saw Alex Salmonds response re DC’s ‘humour bypass and people bypass.’ Made me chuckle and I’m English so I think you’re probably right.

  44. New tread

  45. @RogerMexico

    Thanks very much for clarifying the position regarding religious adherence and whether there’s much monitoring of how this maps against VI.

    If there is as close a connection between certain groups and party affiliation as some politicians – and other posters to this site – have always assumed, it does lead one to wonder what measures are taken to ensure that the online polling panels are representative. I’m always conscious of how much re weighting needs to go on to achieve representation of certain BME groups within London polling for example.

    I wonder if to achieve balanced sample groups both religious adherence and ethnic background should be taken into account. This would be a factor in a number of major cities and in quite interesting permutations I could imagine.

  46. Couper2802

    You are of course correct, Salmond was obviously joking.

  47. COUPER2802
    “The point of the joke is it is self-deprecating, the joke is the idea that he (Salmond) will write the budget but maybe rUK doesn’t get Scottish humour.”

    I think it’s pretty clear that the tone is playful/joking and that the audience take it that way. In fact his comment has been used against him for some time now. I think the video is actually helpful in that it shows what he has been saying all along is true ie ‘he was joking’. Those prone to be affected by the Conservative take on SNP influence will use it to confirm their opinion and those not, will not.

    Really the SNP thing is just so boring that I think the electorate will go cross eyed if the Conservative’s keep it up too long.

  48. After the leaving note from the last Labour Treasury secretary, one would imagine Alex Salmond would think twice before indulging in ironic humour, given that many people are as wooden and mendacious as his successor.

    I despair of some of our news reporters and analysts. Some of them working for ‘quality’ political news media would really be happier working for the corny tabloids.

  49. Thanks for that voting quiz link. I got:

    Healthy majority
    You scored 7 out of 10

  50. I was referring to Liam Byrne’s successor of course, not Alex Salmond’s, :-)

1 7 8 9 10