Last night’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. The one point Tory lead is actually the first for twelve days. Usual caveats apply of course, it’s well within normal sample variation and is a single poll.

The Sun also have some YouGov polling testing out the potential of the Conservative’s attack on the risk of a Labour/SNP deal, which in recent days appears to have become the dominant thrust of their campaign. Results are here. As all my regular readers will know, questions saying “will X make you more likely to vote Y” are essentially rubbish – if they work, you’ll see it in the topline figures. This was an attempt to measure the potential for a message, to gauge how many people might agree with the message itself, as only then can they be persuaded by it. Essentially it went through the various steps and assumptions of the Tory argument, to see how many people were open to it – kicking out those people who actually quite like the idea of an SNP deal, don’t think it would actually happen or would still prefer it to the Tories.

So, about a third of people are already voting Tory, so it doesn’t matter if they buy into the narrative or not, they can only vote Tory once. Next there is whether or not people actually think a Labour and SNP deal is a realistic option – 39% of people, including most Labour voters, think there either won’t be a hung Parliament or that Labour would not enter into any sort of agreement with the SNP. Then there are 8% of people who think that a Labour government with SNP support is likely, and would be a good thing, the Conservative argument will fall flat with them. Finally YouGov asked the remainder if they’d prefer a Conservative government to a Labour-SNP deal and took away those 6% respondents who thought a Labour government reliant on SNP support was a bad thing but would still prefer it to a Tory government.

Take away all those groups and YouGov were left with 8% of the electorate who think a Lab/SNP deal of some sort is likely AND think this would be a bad thing AND think a Tory government would be preferable BUT are not already voting Tory. That’s actually a significant chunk of people and is presumably the voters who the Conservative party are targetting with their current campaign – they are mostly made up of don’t knows, Lib Dems and Ukippers, the message seems to have very little potential to move people directly from Labour to the Tories. The challenge for the Tories is how many (if any) of that 8% of people they can get to go that one step further and vote Tory. The early weeks of the Tory campaign didn’t seem to have any effect on voters at all – this message does at least seem to have potential for them. Whether or not they manage to translate it into votes remains to be seen.


456 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

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  1. Unfortunately the evidence of the last election and the polls in this one (when polls stay the same for months on end the margin for error becomes pretty meaningless), shows that the country is now socialist nation. There appears to be no situation where the Conservatives can regain a majority. The last election was the perfect opportunity [] but the country didn’t give them the majority. This time round the Conservative led coalition have revived the economy and cut the deficit but look set to do worse than in 2010. It would seem that the future is likely to be a series of either Labour Majorities or Labour led left wing coalitions who will continue in the same vain as before with the occasional Con minority or Con led coalition []

  2. @ AdamB

    “Is there only a Yougov poll today?” (Emphasis added)

    How can you say “only” when it can be the crossover, swing back on the basis of a game changer?

    Actually, I do feel, not think (for some incomprehensible reason) that the movement will be larger than usual. If I’m wrong I’m not doing any penitence.

  3. AR558

    I agree with a lot of your sentiments, but the tories have really scre**d up…there are easily more UKIP + Tory votes than labour and lib dems…it’s just that the right is very split, and the tories haven’t managed to have a broad tent approach that could appeal to millionaires and the old tory working class vote.

    A Swedish friend of mine made the same point about her country. whenever the moderates got in, she said, “you know it’s only going to be for one term”, before the social democrats get in. it’s practically a one-party state over there, if you look at the record since 1945.

  4. What is Sky doing with the Salmond Video? The BBC radio news gave quite a lengthy excerpt and it was apparent that what he said was a joke, Indeed it wouldn’t have been a joke if there was a realistic likelihood that he would write the budget.

  5. If UKIP are being squeezed by as much as the ComRes poll indicates, why haven’t the Tories pulled well ahead yet? I’m slightly puzzled because if RedKippers are moving to balance things, what has moved them? It cannot be any of the recent dominant themes (SNP threat mostly!). Perhaps it could be that UKIP support slides when they don’t get enough daily publicity amongst both BlueKippers AND Redkippers?

  6. @Roger Mexico

    Complaining would be a silly thing to do. The best way to face down a joke (partially) at your expense, is take the joke to the next level.

    EM: ‘And after he dictates my Budget, I will of course be appointing Alec to the position of Pope-Empress of All the Scotlands! I have my marching orders from him in my top pocket, right here. *removes paper from top pocket* *unfolds it* Oh, sorry, this is actually my gas bill. No crowns for you Alec!’

    Might win some votes for Lab from viewers in Scotland too.

  7. @Charles – well some would suggest sky have their own agenda…

  8. @gary gatter

    May I say thank you very much for your excellent summaries of all the main forecasts which you give on your One Drive link.

    It is so clear and easy to read. It is wonderful. Thank you very much.

  9. Who paid for the comres poll?

  10. AR558 – please pay attention to the comments policy, which your post violates for being partisan.

  11. @Gary Gatter and @Cloudspotter

    Unfortunately most forecasters do not show historical data.

    However – as you obviously know – Anthony has been including at least a subset of the forecasts in his Friday roundups – starting from 17 weeks out (which covers the three month period you were asking about).

    To speed up access to the whole series just go back to last Friday’s post and click on the ‘Round Up’ classification tab at the end of the post. That will give you the whole series spread out over about four pages.

  12. John Mo

    ITV

  13. (The Siege of) AR558. They may very well be your views but they aren’t really condusive to discussion of polls. I agree that there are more left leaning parties vyomg for votes. But your opinions on the performance of the current and previous government arent evidence of that. I could say that I disagree and such opinions are hopelessly wrong. But that’s not what this site is about either.

  14. Unicorn

    Thanks, I might make a graph!

  15. AR558

    Much as I’d love to continue the discussion the comments policy for the site is very clear and we risk the wrath of AW and others by arguing from our own partisan positions.

    I understand your view and I’m sure you understand mine without me even needing to say it so probably best to move on.

  16. “Oh no. I hope The Daily Express survives. I rely on it for weather forecasts. :) ”

    More importantly, Catoswyn, how will we get our up to date news about Diana Spencer?

  17. @

    Thank you :)

    You (and others) might like this Guardian article about post 7th of May and what will happen if there is no outright winner. One fascinating point is that even if a minister is not re-elected they still remain a minister until the new government is formed.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/22/a-hung-parliament-dont-panic-democracy-will-take-its-course

  18. SKapusniak

    Complaining would be a silly thing to do. The best way to face down a joke (partially) at your expense, is take the joke to the next level

    I’ve not seen all the coverage and of course if it was portrayed as a joke you treat it as such. Judging by the reaction though a lot of people haven’t seen it that way. Salmond clearly meant it humorously, and in any case Miliband would be completely right to respond publicly as you suggest.

    But if Sky have been continually pushing it as ‘shock horror’ then complaining by individuals and behind the scenes by the Party should also be used. This was one thing that New Labour was very good at – though it would have been more helpful if Miliband’s people had started four and a half years ago.

  19. whoops that should have been @adge3, thank you.

    I had a link in my comment so it went into moderation.

  20. So guesses on tonight’s YouGov?

    I’m going for a 34/34 split between Con and Lab.

  21. @Mikey

    “tit for tat”

    as Eric Morecambe would say, “are you allowed to say that?”

  22. Hmm I have another point… What is going on with all this censorship on websites? This is the second website (on entirely different subjects) which has got all up in arms about the voicing of opinion. I’m not being abusive or swearing so where has freedom of speech gone?

  23. @Rich – I’m a little curious how we become a one-party centre-left state when there are about two-dozen left-wing splinter parties and Labour is only likely to achieve power as a minority party or a coalition-leader in the short-medium term.

  24. @cloudspotter

    If you are there… below was my question.

    As I said when I asked it, it probably means nothing but it would be nice if some of the folk on here (most really) who know more about polls than me could offer an answer.

    I’m sure this must have been covered already but here goes anyway….

    I’ve just been looking through Ashcrofts constituency polls. The LAB/CON marginals.

    And I noticed that – although LAB are ahead in a good number of these seats with a typical swing in the region of 5% – the LAB vote has not increased at all/barely in the vast majority of these seats. So that, in effect, LAB have taken the lead solely on the back of a drop off of support for CON.

    I wonder if these swings are somehow ‘softer’ because they have moved in this manner? I sort of expected to see an increase in the LAB vote and a corresponding decrease in the CON vote.
    But perhaps swings are ‘normally’ produced in this way??

  25. AR558 Read the comments policy.

  26. @Ar558

    There have been some big argy-bargys on here and it is AWs blog and he does have some basic rules of etiquette here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/comment-policy

  27. @Ar558

    Basically don’t get partisan or drawn into partisan arguments. Just count to 100, by which time AW would have removed the offending comment.

  28. AR558

    You can read all about it below under the bold ‘Leave a reply’. Just click on ‘Comments Policy’.

  29. If I’m reading it right, the SNP questioning has a flaw. As far as I can tell it doesn’t take into account people in England and Wales who are more likely to vote for Labour because they would like to see the SNP in power, and believe the only way to achieve it is a potential Lab/SNP alliance.

    I think this number could be significant – essentially progressives who were thinking of voting Green or Respect or somesuch as a protest vote but might be attracted back into Labour fold.

  30. @ Anthony Wells

    Ok, Anthony, I got it. Apologies.

  31. In defence of AR558 my own comment was equally partisan and I have chastised myself thoroughly. Won’t happen again (much).

  32. I think many people would agree that the outcome of the election and the next government is a very important topic and I personally believe that the likely composition will have a negative effect on the majority of the countries prospects especially for employment. Therefore I think that should be debated, those views should be aired and not shushed like a small child or a citizen of a communist state. I know you will all jump on me again so I won’t post again but it is very sad that vital matters cannot be discussed without being curtailed by arbitrary and draconian rules

  33. Ow what a surprise, I am immediatelly in moderation for replying to a post that isn’t pro Labour and dares to say the economy is doing well. Yet once again aggressive anti Con and UKIP posts are just fair game. And people wonder why nearly all Con voters have left this site.

  34. I’m going for 36 lab 33 con 14 ukip 10 LD

  35. @mikey
    “So guesses on tonight’s YouGov?”

    Tom Newton Dunn hasn’t said it’s “interesting” so clearly we have a Labour lead

  36. AR558
    Hmm I have another point… What is going on with all this censorship on websites? This is the second website (on entirely different subjects) which has got all up in arms about the voicing of opinion. I’m not being abusive or swearing so where has freedom of speech gone?

    This has nothing to do with your freedom of speech. Anthony pays for the web hosting and the domain for UKPR so he can tell you what the comments policy is. Similarly, if you went to a dinner party at his house and started ranting at him about socialism he’d be perfectly entitled to turf you out if he so desired. He has no obligation to donate his bandwidth to you.

    If you want to discuss polls in a non-partisan manner you will find us all very welcoming.

  37. @AR558

    Yes, the outcome of the election is important and should be discussed.

    But, with respect, you are like a rugby fan in a cricket club who constantly wants to talk about rugby. Rugby is great, but we’re here to talk about cricket. If you want to talk about cricket, then you are very welcome, but if you want to talk about rugby, try down the road…

  38. @ Rich

    My comment was pro-Conservative (perish the thought, but iT was) in a way.

    It would have gone out of hands. A key post was delated and the related ones went into moderation.

  39. @AR558, if you want the least moderated political speech, try 4chans /pol board. Or for a somewhat less…imageboardy…option, there’s >10,000 forums out there with politics sections. This is a site for polling, not politics….there’s a lot of overlap, but “debating” which party/outcome would be best/worst doesn’t belong here any more than it would belong on a site dedicated to football, or puppies, or whatever. It doesn’t have much to do with freedom of speech, it’s just not what this site is for.

    I’m suddenly thinking 4chan is going to automatically be one of the moderation words, oh well :)

  40. @ Gary Gater

    “One fascinating point is that even if a minister is not re-elected they still remain a minister until the new government is formed”.

    This of course means that whether NC wins in Hallam or not he remains deputy PM for a bit. Even more entertainingly he could agree a coalition with Lab while being deputy PM to DC. Cabinet meetings could be fun!

  41. @Rich

    There is an interesting debate to be had about why positive economic news doesn’t seem to have had any impact on the polls. Some take the view that there is a world of difference between the aggregated economic metrics such as GDP and the experience of people on the ground.

    Another view is that it is the differential impact that dulls the positives (broadly speaking, if you’re in a position where you have seen the benefits you were already probably in the government’s camp).

    Of course it could be the case, as it now appears from US data, that it never was the economy that drove most people’s voting behaviour…

  42. @Rich
    If your comment went immediately into moderation it’s more likely that it was because you used a link or banned word than because of it being non-partisan. I don’t see how Anthony could set a filter that picks up on your political opinion.

  43. Cons (and even more so UKIP) get a very hard time on digital and social media and accompanying moderation, and this site is no exception. I can say this with absolute authority having read most threads over the last few years. Anyway, I’ll take a back seat and just read from now, at least up until polling day.

  44. YG prediction – Lab 36 Con 34

  45. @Tony Dean

    If UKIP are being squeezed by as much as the ComRes poll indicates, why haven’t the Tories pulled well ahead yet?

    I think quite a few people make questionable assumptions about the direction of travel of lapsed Ukip supporters. You comment suggests that you rather expected them to hotfoot it to the Tory fold. However, churn analysis shows that they arrive from all other parties and there is no reason to suspect that there is just one exit route.

    The recent Ashcroft polls of the Con/Lab marginals showed a similar pattern of Ukip squeezing. As with today’s poll, the forecasting models all predicted higher levels of support than actually emerged in the polling data. If lapsed Ukip supporters had moved on overwhelmingly to the Tories, one would have expected to see the Labour margin being overturned and reversed in these seats. As it happened there was no reliable pattern of this kind. It seems that whilst a higher proportion of lapsed UKIP supporters go to the Tories, Labour and other parties are almost as likely to be the beneficiaries.

    So, the pattern we are seeing is that where Ukip support drops, several parties reap the benefit and the Tories just edge gently forward rather than pulling ahead on their own.

  46. AR558
    I think many people would agree that the outcome of the election and the next government is a very important topic and I personally believe that the likely composition will have a negative effect on the majority of the countries prospects especially for employment. Therefore I think that should be debated, those views should be aired and not shushed like a small child or a citizen of a communist state….

    Political debate is very important. However this is not a political debating site. The site tries on the whole to discuss polls or how certain issues may affect voting intention.

  47. Assiduosity

    I’m not sure how much monitoring goes on of voting intention by religious belief.

    Not a lot as far as I can see. There is quite a lot of attitude polling by denomination but VI is rarely asked. From memory ComRes do have specialist panels, though I’m not sure how representative they are. And you can sometimes find a breakdown by religion in a standard poll:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6v34wr1cpg/TimesResults_150209_atheism_Website.pdf

    but the numbers in the sample for the smaller religions (basically anything other than C of E and RC) mean that the sub-samples are too small to draw any meaningful figures from.

    It does make you wonder about balance within panels however. For example this survey shows Jewish and Muslim identifiers at about the same level – and I’ve seen it similar in other YouGov surveys, But we know from the Census that Muslims are about ten times more common than Jews in the general population (roughly 5% versus 0.5%). Of course in more general terms other weightings may compensate for this.

  48. AR558 was probably caught by the c**l*s filter, which is a blessing in disguise, because it’s a good indication that a comment is off-topic here. AW’s gaff, AW’s rules.

    @David In France

    “So that, in effect, LAB have taken the lead solely on the back of a drop off of support for CON.”

    I’m seeing swings in northern Lab-Con marginals that suggest support moving away from Lib Dem to both major parties, but also from both major parties to UKIP. That translates into an increased Labour vote share as more 2010 Lib Dems “come home” to Labour than leave Labour for UKIP. In other regions, the redistribution seems to be mathematically from Lib Dem to UKIP, but you wouldn’t assume that to be a direct transfer of support given the parties’ core policies.

    It’s the difference between Gloucester and Pendle in this group of Ashcroft polls from earlier in the month:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/back-to-the-con-lab-battleground/

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