Last night’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. The one point Tory lead is actually the first for twelve days. Usual caveats apply of course, it’s well within normal sample variation and is a single poll.

The Sun also have some YouGov polling testing out the potential of the Conservative’s attack on the risk of a Labour/SNP deal, which in recent days appears to have become the dominant thrust of their campaign. Results are here. As all my regular readers will know, questions saying “will X make you more likely to vote Y” are essentially rubbish – if they work, you’ll see it in the topline figures. This was an attempt to measure the potential for a message, to gauge how many people might agree with the message itself, as only then can they be persuaded by it. Essentially it went through the various steps and assumptions of the Tory argument, to see how many people were open to it – kicking out those people who actually quite like the idea of an SNP deal, don’t think it would actually happen or would still prefer it to the Tories.

So, about a third of people are already voting Tory, so it doesn’t matter if they buy into the narrative or not, they can only vote Tory once. Next there is whether or not people actually think a Labour and SNP deal is a realistic option – 39% of people, including most Labour voters, think there either won’t be a hung Parliament or that Labour would not enter into any sort of agreement with the SNP. Then there are 8% of people who think that a Labour government with SNP support is likely, and would be a good thing, the Conservative argument will fall flat with them. Finally YouGov asked the remainder if they’d prefer a Conservative government to a Labour-SNP deal and took away those 6% respondents who thought a Labour government reliant on SNP support was a bad thing but would still prefer it to a Tory government.

Take away all those groups and YouGov were left with 8% of the electorate who think a Lab/SNP deal of some sort is likely AND think this would be a bad thing AND think a Tory government would be preferable BUT are not already voting Tory. That’s actually a significant chunk of people and is presumably the voters who the Conservative party are targetting with their current campaign – they are mostly made up of don’t knows, Lib Dems and Ukippers, the message seems to have very little potential to move people directly from Labour to the Tories. The challenge for the Tories is how many (if any) of that 8% of people they can get to go that one step further and vote Tory. The early weeks of the Tory campaign didn’t seem to have any effect on voters at all – this message does at least seem to have potential for them. Whether or not they manage to translate it into votes remains to be seen.


456 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

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  1. @ JohnMo
    “Lets see if the Salmond video, makes any difference .It clear the Tories will try and make something of it but i am not sure?”

    It is obviously having some traction – otherwise Team Blue wouldn’t be going on about it for so many days. However, my gut feeling is that voters have already absorbed the message and have already been persuaded one way or the other by it by now – there may be some more votes to get out of hovvering BlueKippers, but in my estimation not enough more to get the Conservatives into clear blue water. The result is now very, very, likely to be hung IMO.

  2. Vis Salmond video

    “How many game changers is that now”

    LOL

    Ha exactly my thoughts!

  3. @ Rivers10

    As you asked I saw the first Green Poster today in the Mossley Hill ward. People in that house use to put out LibDem, so either they moved, or they are converted.

  4. I can see that my lack of grasp of common law makes me less desirable migrant for NF. Hm …

    In a way he is right, if the UK leaves the EU, then all those statutory instruments can be repealed. On the other hand if the UK leaves the EU, what do we do with all those ECoJ decisions that are actually based on common law?

  5. Re Salmon game changer – Milliband’s growing teenage fan club was higher up the order of news at 6

  6. Andy in Leeds

    Good to see a new poster.

    Not to depress you, but I reckon it took me a couple of years to learn much of what Anthony (and learned posters) had to teach!

  7. So..COMRES ‘marginal’ poll
    CON 39 (-7)
    LAB 28 (+2)
    LIB 5 (-10)
    UKIP 21 (+15)

    Using Rest of England uniform swings gives:
    CON 40
    Lab 30
    LIB 2
    UKIP 22

    Pretty much actually what you’d expect.

  8. I think @unicorn has pointed out some oddities of the YouGov Nowcast previously. Here are some more.

    According to Rob Ford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey and East Worthing & Shoreham are NOT UKIP targets. They are well-off, ultra safe Conservative seats.

    The Nowcast has the following UKIP VI for these seats:

    S&S: 22% – 33%
    E Worthing: 21.8% – 32.4%

    Compare this with the average of 10 “UKIP targets” in the ComRes poll (21%), of which the above two seats aren’t even proper targets.

    That is a HUGE overestimation of the UKIP vote in the Nowcast – unless the ComRes poll is a severe underestimation of UKIP VI

  9. Some of the ‘marginals’ polled are, in fact, extremely safe Tory seats. Truly, a bizarre poll.

  10. ITV Wales has a Welsh leader debate tonight at 8pm.

    I don’t want to retune Freesat. Is it online?

  11. Cloudspotter, you have just done my head in!

  12. While listening to the 6 O’clock news a passing reference was made to the fact that Lab had intended today (and Monday and tomorrow) to be about the NHS.

    It occurred to me that as a diversionary tactic to block Lab from getting a lot of airtime on a subject where they are perceived to be strong, that the Lab/SNP scare story has been highly effective for the Tories.

    It also has been helpful in keeping attention away from UKIP and the media agenda away from Europe. A topic which is a can of works for the Tories with the risk of opening up internal divisions and loss of VI on one side or the other.

    As far as the direct VI impact on fears of a Lab/SNP deal is concerned more than enough has been said, but the opinions posted here mostly lie between “not much impact” and “helpful to the Tories in England”. I don’t recall much support for the view “damaging to the Tories in England.”

    So it might be fair to say that in the Tory camp this tactic might be seen as one that has little downside risk in VI, but that might nudge some votes their way. Something of a one-way bet.

    Perhaps we have all got a bit of fixated on discussing the potential VI impact when all they were really trying to do was 1) block Lab from getting NHS airtime and 2) keep the Euro cat in the bag. This doesn’t sound at all like Crosby’s style does it?

  13. Just watched snp ppb -wonder why they show them in england as of course it quite rightly just attacked labour.

  14. Guys, been lurking & not intending to post but may be able to add some value especially on the gambling side of things (later)
    For now, this list of 10 is the list that UKIP themselves selected 6 or 9 months ago as their own top 10 targets for the Election.

  15. DR MIBBLES
    …particularly Castle Point – probable CON win by over 20%, UKIP 3rd
    and the Forest of Dean – probable CON win by 15%, UKIP 3rd

    Who signed this poll off?

  16. It suits Salmond and Cameron to fight each other..

  17. Everyone is asking where the seats come from. They come from here:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats

    Tom Mludzinski of ComRes on Twitter:

    @robfordmancs @GawainTowler we took named targets from last year bt replaced long shots w/newer tgts eg Castlpoint

  18. What did we learn fro AS’s j step (although there is a clear edge to it against Labour)?

    Well, it confirmed that AS can still write (and probably can count too), which is a satisfying feeling.

    It also shows some desperation on the side of the blue side trying to run with it.

    It can actually backfire. If there is a body of Labour leaning electorate who wants a bit easement and some obviously solidarity based measures, but they have scars from 2008-09, to get what they want they would have to vote for Labour (perhaps hoping a non-SNP inclusive solution.

    It may even backfire on the SNP, but it depends on the absorption of this non-news item (I.e. Humourless blues, or kicking the dead “lion”)

  19. Where the list of target seats came from

    Andrew Hawkins [email protected]_ComRes · 59m59 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs taken from seats briefed publicly as targets last yr, minus eg Aylesbury but plus eg Castle Pt, S Basildn

    Tom Mludzinski [email protected]_ComRes · 55m55 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @GawainTowler we took named targets from last year bt replaced long shots w/newer tgts eg Castlpoint

    http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats

    Rob Ford (Britain) [email protected] · 53m53 minutes ago
    @tom_ComRes @GawainTowler tbh I never believed that list – not sure where it came from but some of the seats make no sense IMO.

    Tom Mludzinski [email protected]_ComRes · 51m51 minutes ago
    @robfordmancs @GawainTowler As i say we took out some of those we thought didn’t make much sense too

  20. I’m saying it could well be a game changer because unlike the anti Miliband line or the BS about spending 8 billion on the NHS…the idea a smug Samond could be calling the shots COULD well be enough to put the Tories ahead in the polls.

  21. ^ Also this is the first time I’ve even mentioned a game changer.

  22. J step = jester

  23. Omni

    “Btw I agree with the general consensus that they could have chosen better constituencies. I think Clacton should have been there.”

    If it had been, UKIP would have gone up, the Tories and Labour would have gone down and the LibDems would have plummeted even further!

  24. That ComRes poll is neither fish nor fowl: I have no idea what the thinking was behind its commissioning. That focusing on, say, just five seats with a genuine UKIP-Con contest would be unfair to UKIP, and it had to be ten? That ComRes set a minimum number of seats to survey for a “battleground” poll?

  25. Richard

    Can we work out from any of that how many seats even those researching UKIP’s chances consider are realistic options?

    It might be useful to be able to put a “top” figure on possible UKIP MPs.

  26. I think the UKIP poll is a interesting one in that throwing in a few seats that aren’t their target seats under plays the average of the UKIP vote. I expect shock waves come election night!

    I still expect Miliband to be PM by the end of May though after the first attempt by the Tories fails…..that is IF that Salmond video makes a difference to the Tory vote!

  27. Three forecasts have changed. Since bthe 5th of April the forecast average has changed from the Conservatives being the largest party by 5 seats to being the largest party by three seats.

    Tables are here (graph enlarged and now on the first page):

    https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=698F47EA25B48A7A!496605&authkey=!ABE2raUKP4THarY&ithint=file%2cpdf

  28. CASCLC

    Sorry!

    To make it clear the second set of figures is what you get if you apply uniform swings to those 10 seats. It wasn’t a Peter Snow ‘just for a bit of fun’ thing.

  29. @ Omnishambles

    I think YouGov’s nowcast figures on UKIP in the NorthWest look OK. If the methodologies are the same elsewhere … Also they are very cautious of local anomalies. So, I put my penny for YouGov (they also know that Sun is not popular in Liverpool, but it doesn’t bother some neighbouring constituencies, and they read it).

  30. The Milifandom twitter thing is really interesting IMO. Having gone on about the death of the influence of the traditional media its great to see things coming from young people engaged in politics and using new media.

  31. @norbold
    “If it had been, UKIP would have gone up, the Tories and Labour would have gone down and the LibDems would have plummeted even further!”

    I know. That’s why it should be there – it’s actually a battleground and the most likely UKIP constituency in the country. I’d rather see the average of all UKIP’s best chances.

  32. Laszlo
    From my knowledge of the area Mossley Hill is a pretty trendy area with a decent Green vote, one would expect at least some signs of support for them. Apparently the Greens expect to win the council ward in Mays locals or next years local elections, I personally am sceptical but local elections can be very volatile.
    P.S I saw your comment from the other night don’t worry :)

  33. Is the only poll expected this evening / tonight the YouGov poll?

  34. SINBAD
    I think the UKIP poll is a interesting one in that throwing in a few seats that aren’t their target seats under plays the average of the UKIP vote. I expect shock waves come election night!
    I still expect Miliband to be PM by the end of May though after the first attempt by the Tories fails…..that is IF that Salmond video makes a difference to the Tory vote!

    Out of interest what do you think will happen on election night? Are you expecting a higher number of UKIP seats than is currently projected?

  35. Cloudspotter, thank you. Although if you were prancing around a naff set with 80s graphics as you typed it would’ve been very Peter Snow.

  36. In the spirit of election drinking games I propose that whenever someone declares an event a “game changer” everyone must do a shot! At this rate we’ll all be blitzed by 10pm
    Or people could be a bit more nuanced…

  37. @ Rivers10

    I would be very surprised (quite shocked really) if on a GE day the Green Party could capture Mossley Hill ward, but we will see, it would be jolly good for them.

  38. 07052015
    “Which papers will still be going in 2020.Express titles are for sale and pretty much all are losing money….”

    Oh no. I hope The Daily Express survives. I rely on it for weather forecasts. :)

  39. MartinW

    Is there any doubt now that the Cons and SNP are coordinating these stunts? Presumably because NS is actually so well liked in England they felt the need to bring back the real bogeyman.

    Yes, every doubt in the world. Supporters of political Parties often feel that all their opponents are engaged in a gigantic conspiracy against them. This indeed seems to have been the theme of this endless and depressing election campaign and the Parties have engaged in implausible allegations that a vote for X is really a vote for Y or that Part A and Party B are really in cahoots.

    But all that is actually happening is that individual Parties are doing things according to their own individual interests and have absolutely no obligation to do or say things to suit the Party you support instead. Shocking isn’t it?

    Of course, not for the first time, Labour are missing a trick here. If Sky really have excerpted a jocular or ironic snippet out of context and are using it to make political points[1], then they are breaking the impartiality rules they are supposed to follow rigorously during an election. Complaining about that rather than bursting into tears and saying “Everybody hates me!” might be more effective.

    Meanwhile from a perhaps unusual source (maybe Fraser’s Auntie Patsy has taken over), an outbreak of common sense on the whole topic:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/yes-of-course-an-snp-backed-labour-government-is-perfectly-legitimate/

    [1] Whether this is another effect of Murdoch’s demands that all part of his media empire should come the aid of the Conservatives or whether his US citizenship means he is legally forbidden from understanding irony, I do no know.

  40. @Oldnat

    No, I think we are none the wiser. I think all this poll tells us is what we have seen from the most recent Con/Lab Ashcroft polls, UKIP is being squeezed, but not where.

    Rob Ford’s latest tweet sums it up

    So either #ukip are struggling in their key targets or holding up in targets but doing very poorly in second tier seats. Either way bad news

    My guess would be that most of the squeezing is happening where they are not in contention.

    in terms of working out the UKIP ‘Top’ the Yougov nowcast lists the following seats too close to call with UKIP in contention, or leaning, with UKIP in contention

    No nowcast due to local factors
    Rochester & Strood
    Clacton
    South Thanet

    Lab Held
    – Too close to call
    Heywood & Middleton
    Great Grimsby
    Rotherham

    Leaning Lab
    Dagenham & Rainham
    Dudley North
    Plymouth Moor View (UKIP 2nd , Cons 3rd)

    Con Held
    Leaning UKIP
    Thurrock

    Too close to call – 3 way, Con vs UKIP vs Lab
    Cleethorpes
    Cannock Chase
    Dudley South
    South Basildon & East Thurrock
    Great Yarmouth
    Northampton South

    Too close to call – vs Cons
    Boston & Skegness

    Leaning Cons
    Wyre Forest
    Spelthorne

    So that’s around 19 seats, but most of those are leaning towards someone else, so I expect a lot less than that.

  41. Rivers10

    Even at my advanced years, I made a BAD mistake in 2011 by celebrating victories with a dram.

    This time, I’m not going to start drinking till around midnight – on Saturday (perhaps a tad earlier).

  42. Forgot the LD held one from that list, so add

    Torbay Too close to call LD vs Con vs UKIP

  43. Richard

    Thanks

    If those 3-way seats are too close to call, there are bound to be some surprises.

  44. Wasn’t TND tweeting last night about that ‘game changer’? No sign so far – take that as labour back in the lead

  45. GARY GATTER

    Looks like we’re heading for cross-over!

    BTW can you see what the seat projections were historically?
    Say from 3 months out.

  46. RICHARD

    That was a really useful precis. Thanks.

  47. Is there only a Yougov poll today?

  48. @ Roger Mexico,

    Thanks for the link. Some rational thinking – it will never catch on.

  49. In partial defence of ComRes they may have picked up some of the more unlikely inclusions in the their UKIP ‘targets’ from stories last year such as this:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats

    The full list of likely targets include: North Thanet, Forest of Dean, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Aylesbury, East Worthing and Shoreham, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, South Thanet, Eastleigh, Portsmouth South, Boston and Skegness, Grimsby.

    though even back then the list was criticised as containing some unlikely candidates.

    If you are reducing the list to ten, Aylesbury is too Tory and the special circumstances in Eastleigh and Portsmouth South seem to have faded. But Grimsby is still very much in play and you would be better dropping one of the others if you wanted to include the two extra Essex seats.

  50. @cloudspotter

    Unfortunately most forecasters do not show historical data.

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