Last night’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. The one point Tory lead is actually the first for twelve days. Usual caveats apply of course, it’s well within normal sample variation and is a single poll.

The Sun also have some YouGov polling testing out the potential of the Conservative’s attack on the risk of a Labour/SNP deal, which in recent days appears to have become the dominant thrust of their campaign. Results are here. As all my regular readers will know, questions saying “will X make you more likely to vote Y” are essentially rubbish – if they work, you’ll see it in the topline figures. This was an attempt to measure the potential for a message, to gauge how many people might agree with the message itself, as only then can they be persuaded by it. Essentially it went through the various steps and assumptions of the Tory argument, to see how many people were open to it – kicking out those people who actually quite like the idea of an SNP deal, don’t think it would actually happen or would still prefer it to the Tories.

So, about a third of people are already voting Tory, so it doesn’t matter if they buy into the narrative or not, they can only vote Tory once. Next there is whether or not people actually think a Labour and SNP deal is a realistic option – 39% of people, including most Labour voters, think there either won’t be a hung Parliament or that Labour would not enter into any sort of agreement with the SNP. Then there are 8% of people who think that a Labour government with SNP support is likely, and would be a good thing, the Conservative argument will fall flat with them. Finally YouGov asked the remainder if they’d prefer a Conservative government to a Labour-SNP deal and took away those 6% respondents who thought a Labour government reliant on SNP support was a bad thing but would still prefer it to a Tory government.

Take away all those groups and YouGov were left with 8% of the electorate who think a Lab/SNP deal of some sort is likely AND think this would be a bad thing AND think a Tory government would be preferable BUT are not already voting Tory. That’s actually a significant chunk of people and is presumably the voters who the Conservative party are targetting with their current campaign – they are mostly made up of don’t knows, Lib Dems and Ukippers, the message seems to have very little potential to move people directly from Labour to the Tories. The challenge for the Tories is how many (if any) of that 8% of people they can get to go that one step further and vote Tory. The early weeks of the Tory campaign didn’t seem to have any effect on voters at all – this message does at least seem to have potential for them. Whether or not they manage to translate it into votes remains to be seen.


456 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

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  1. Tom Chadwick

    No is the honest answer – most predictions are still giving them 25-30 seats. Some people doubt they will get that many with opinion poll figures that low. Some have predicted as low as 10-15

    All depends on how much their personal / incumbency effect is for each Lib Dem, how much tactical voting goes on and therefore how variable the swing is per seat / region.

    I think it’s pretty clear by now though that it’s not going to be a good night if you’re a fan of the yellow team though.

  2. ALAN re UNICORN
    37.0.1 for Linux (Mint 17.1)

    Many Thanks.

    That’s perilously close to the 37.0.2 I’m running on Windows. The chrome behaviour is identical on Win XP, Win 7 & Win 8.1 so it’s beginning to look as though it’s more a Win v Linux thing.

    I had to do some stuff on Unix minis many years ago but have never tried Linux so that’s not an option for me given the timescale.

    I’ll see if installing an older Windows version of Firefox makes any difference but will have to abort mission if it doesn’t.

  3. @Ashman

    I’m not getting political.

    I am merely pointing out where your assertions are not confirmed by the current polling data, which you rarely make any reference to.

    Equally I could point out that we have plenty of polling telling us that the NHS is a major issue, pretty much consistently in the top three often the most important area of concern to the public. MORI, along with others, has a long data set which shows this.

    I would simply encourage you to at least make an effort to test your opinions against what the measures of public opinion tell us, as that is what makes this site different from others where people simply offer their political views unencumbered by evidence
    ————————————————————————-

    People will say what they believe to be the case.

    When it comes to the crunch, historically it has always been the economy, that feeds them, houses them, pays for the holidays and the entertainment they require throughout the weeks etc.
    The above you think about daily, how often do you really think about the NHS?

    The NHS is important, like immigration its not the crunch issue.

  4. ASHMAN

    Touché

  5. That’s entirely true Omnishambles, and why I think it is an interesting question as to how motivated that part of the electorate are who will hear the Conservative message that: “It’ll be a catastrophe if an Establishment party is dictated to be outsiders!” and see it as desirable rather than catastrophic.

    Looking at the linked data:

    8% of Lib Dem voters (by VI) thought the scenario plausible but Lab/SNP preferable to Conservatives versus 20% who found it plausible but preferred the Conservatives.

    8% of UKIP voters (by VI) thought the scenario plausible but Lab/SNP preferable to Conservatives versus 36% who found it plausible but preferred the Conservatives.

    If both groups were equally concerned about the prospect, pushing the issue should lead to squeezed votes coming ~2:1 from Lib Dems and ~4:1 from UKIP as a Con:Lab vote ratio.

    Those relative ratios might be expected, but what about the Greens (not in the table), they’d surely support the progressive alliance? And the others/don’t knows? Who knows.

    Whether it turns out to be a good call will presumably be determined not just by how many of the potential targets (that 8% of the total electorate) it makes a difference to, but how many of the ‘anti-targets’ it swings too. (‘Anti-targets’ being that 8% of current UKIP VI, plus 8% of current Lib Dem VI, plus who knows how big a slice of the Green/others/don’t knows)

    Are the 36% of available Tory-preferring UKIP voters more or less likely to be swung by the “Rally blue to save the UK establishment from the Scots” message than the 8% of available Lab/SNP-preferring UKIP voters are to be swung by the “Go red to stick it to the UK establishment” message? It’d be interesting to know. Likewise, how many don’t knows will the issue persuade by either way by the “Save the establishment” or “Stick it to the establishment” arguments?

    (The policy is probably on firmer ground with squeezed Lib Dems, who seem unlikely to take the “Stick it to the establishment” line in any great number.)

  6. Ashman – very silly to complain that Ed Miliband isn’t visiting Tory heartlands. He’s going to the areas which will decide the election, as is Cameron. Of course it isn’t lack of bottle – he has better things to do than visit Surrey, Dorset or wherever you mean.

  7. HAL – Interesting that EU in-out is now +10%. It was evens a year ago and -10% to -20% before that. I wonder what is driving the change? Could it be that some campaigning on this issue has actually made a difference?

    The general publicity and unpopularity of UKIP is also a factor. The more that being anti-EU is associated with UKIP, the more those who don’t want to be associated with UKIP may express a preference for the EU. I think UKIP have been the best pro-EU recruiter for many years.

  8. ComRes poll of the following seats:

    South Thanet
    Boston and Skegness
    Thurrock
    Forest of Dean
    Great Yarmouth
    North Thanet
    East Worthing and Shoreham
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey
    South Basildon and East Thurrock
    Castle Point

    CON 39 (-7)
    LAB 28 (+2)
    LIB 5 (-10)
    UKIP 21 (+15)
    GRN 4 (+4)

    Changes vs 2010.

    Via Number Cruncher and Political Betting

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/22/new-comres-battleground-polling-finds-ukip-struggling-in-its-key-targets/

  9. UKIP struggling in key marginal according to ComRes.

  10. BZ

    Having spent a pleasant day in glorious sunshine in my garden today, instead of on the keyboard, I’ve now had time to add further comment on the North Channel Crossing on the previous thread.

  11. Hanretty tweets comparison to the EF model

    [email protected] poll of #UKIP tgts: 21%. Avg @Election4castUK nowcast for those 10 seats: 26%. Bad news for #UKIP

  12. David in France

    What question?

    Earlier people were discussing voting trends with age. I have a recollection of a graph showing how different generations votes changed with age that someone posted here perhaps a year ago. The x axis was age so each generation was superimposed.

    If I remember correctly, it wasn’t a simple picture. It showed that different generations did behave differently and also did move towards voting Tory as the aged.
    However, today’s 65-75 trend with age has always been higher than other age groups wrt the Cons. They will miss these voters in future decades. Younger generations all started at a lower point, and did not look like catching up.

    I tried to find the graph on Google, but no luck.

  13. Difficult to know what to make of that poll. 4.5% Con to Lab swing? UKIP very concentrated in fewer than 10 seats?

    Bah, pretty uninformative.

  14. @Ashman

    Some better-paid peeps are aware that lower wages at the bottom can have the knock-on effect of depressing wages further up.

    Similarly business peeps not directly affected by welfare cuts may be aware that cutting benefits may diminish their sales (thus additionally seeing less tax revenue, lay-offs in their shops, upping the welfare bill again thus undermining the cuts, a bit like wot actually happened…)

  15. I’m sure somebody will do a proper analysis by my initial thoughts on that ComRes are:

    – Not a good poll for LAB, going up 2 when LD are down 10.
    – These aren’t all true UKIP targets. They’ve been getting narrower and narrower as campaign has gone on and my sense is of those its really only South Thanet, Thurrock, Boston and Castle Point they’re still interested in. And Great Grimsby which they haven’t polled.
    – CON share pretty much in line with national swing. Holding up OK considering these are supposed UKIP targets.
    – Polls of several marginals aren’t that helpful. This doesn’t really tell us anything new about Thanet or Thurrock. Hopefully the good Lord will oblige soon.

  16. ComRes ‘This was a phone poll’

    Nuff said.

    Though I think that Salmond video could be a game changer for the Tories……

  17. Jack Sheldon

    It is a 4.5 swing to Labour from Conservative, which is not too bad at all.

  18. Omni,

    Not convinced by the feel-good explanation for the EU poll.

    Looking at the IN and OUT graphs, there are large changes around election time each year. In 2012 and 2013 (when UKIP really got going) there were substantial swings to OUT, but in the 2014 and 2015 periods, the swings are to IN. I’m suggesting the pro-IN parties are now getting their message across.

  19. @Sinbad,

    I agree. That Salmond video might really help the Tories.

  20. For all the people on here who would like to see a humourous take on the election campaign I do recommend ‘Ballot Monkeys’ on C4 last night (now on 4OD). Might appeal. Made me laugh anyway. It purports to be a fly on the wall type documentary following each campaign bus around the country and in style is rather like the 2012 programme on The Olympics.

    What was interesting is that they managed to build in actual news stories from that day and then imagined the reactions on each campaign bus.

  21. Cam’s reaction to the Salmond video just makes him look hysterical. And again the SNP have been saying this stuff for weeks and months and have had the same coverage all campaign. The VI is still where its at.

  22. Rob Ford had this to say

    Rob Ford (Britain) @robfordmancs
    Not good results for ukip in this ComRes but an odd selection of seats:lumps together key targets with ultra safe Con seats ukip not chasing

    Forest of Dean, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, East Worthing and Shoreham – none of these are ukip targets in my view.

    Sittingbourne & Sheppey: Con 2010 50% E Worthing & Shoreham – Con 49% both well off seats with few “left behind” voters.Ukip targets? Hardly

    So it doesn’t sound like that poll tells us much?

  23. Hawthorn

    Agreed – that swing replicated nationwide, even with Scotland going its own way, would be enough to put the Ed’s in Downing St.

  24. Again Comres is doing some really strange things.

    Most of these seats are NOT Ukip targets.

    Lumping averages from such electic seats bring CVI into disrepute.

  25. Cant really see the point of comres ,looks like itv bottled the spec.

  26. Richard/RAF

    Agreed – it is an odd choice of seats.

  27. BZ and OLDNAT

    The North Channel bridge or tunnel idea does have many possible uses: Glasgow-Dublin, Belfast-Manchester-HS2 etc.

    I think bridge and tunnel technology is coming along and may make it more of a runner. But I still think that the distance is just a tad too long, the sea a tad too deep, and the population on each side a tad too small, to be viable on a cost benefit analysis.

    The feasibility study could prove interesting reading if nothing else.

  28. Is this Comres poll just a poll of ten seats aggregated and not broken down by constituency?

  29. “Lumping averages from such electic seats bring CVI into disrepute.”

    Ehem…eclectic.

  30. Harsh to critiscise Comres. ITV’s fault if the chosen seats are a bit odd.

    Conspiracy Theory.
    Worth remembering that ITV’s leadership is pro-Tory as well so raises a question about designing an opinion poll that potentially damages UKIP / makes it look like they are doing badly and can’t win in certain target seats that the Tories need to squeeze their vote in.

    Reality.
    Probably just a balls up by whoever ordered the poll.

  31. Sinbad
    “Though I think that Salmond video could be a game changer for the Tories……”

    How many game-changers is that now?

  32. Does the Salmond video say anything people didn’t expect Salmond to say?

  33. Yougov nowcast has UKIP in those seats as

    South Thanet – no estimate due to local factors
    Boston and Skegness – 30-42%
    Thurrock – 29-43%
    Forest of Dean – 16-26%
    Great Yarmouth – 24-36%
    North Thanet – 23-33%
    East Worthing and Shoreham – 22-33%
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey – 22-33%
    South Basildon and East Thurrock 22-35%
    Castle Point – 19-32%

    So if UKIP is at 21% over these 10 seats then that looks like the lower range of the Yougov forecasts.

    Looking at it that way, it does look bad for UKIP, but it doesn’t mean that they can’t still win some of the above, it depends if they are being squeezed more in the seats where they are not in contention.

  34. Spearmint

    Up here in Richmond (Yorks) Mr Name Surname is shoo-in. He has the blue rosette. That’s all that matters.

  35. The Salmon video was on STV news – it was quite funny. But they were ‘pretending’ to take it seriously they’d even managed to get quotes from the parties. The election is becoming a parody. ‘Vote Conservative because the SNP are Scottish’

    And Neil actually asked Stewart Hosie about it in the economy debate on BBC 2 today. Hosie just laughed and said ‘he was joking’

  36. @NORBOLD

    First game changer for the Tories IMO. Still even if they are the biggest party by a distance they will still probably be unable to get the Queens Speech through.

  37. Re: Comres poll of ‘key’ UKIP seats.

    Some of them don’t seem to be specific UKIP targets. However this is marvellous news for the Conservatives if true.

  38. Additon to the conspiracy theory:

    It was also a phone poll which have tended towards the lower end of UKIP figures, normally 11-13% nationally rather than 15-17%. Election Day might tell us which are more accurate at predicting actual UKIP votes.

  39. On my local West news, Clegg is aked, ‘if Conservatives have lost their heart and Labour have lost their brains, which bodily part are you missing?’

    Clegg, understandably, looks a bit startled!

  40. What a disappointment the ComRes poll is – without a breakdown by seat it is utterly useless other than as a tool for the Tories to try and squeeze them. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, so I think it was probably a “muddled request” to the polling company. For a long time now the UKIP projections in all the Election Projection teams have ranged between 1 and 5. So why do 10? Plain daft if you ask me!
    If they had asked the same number of folk in their top 5 it then might have told us something – real pity – missed opportunity/waste of money for ITV.

  41. Copy pasting another tweet (from NC) as it’s relevant to the discussion

    “Some discussion re choice of seats but look at the maths: UKIP 21% – if 11% in half of them, avg of other five must be 31%. CON avg is 39%.”

    Btw I agree with the general consensus that they could have chosen better constituencies. I think Clacton should have been there, at least

  42. Many UKIP voters who post on various threads tend to be very committed and almost evangelical in their belief that UKIP will be very successful in this election. Nigel has been trying to manage their expectations a little but I do think that if there is not what is perceived as a great result for UKIP this time it may damage the party somewhat in the longer term.

  43. Re: the Comres poll, the addition of several very safe Conservative seats might be good for Conservative morale but it doesn’t really show the reality of polling in real UKIP target seats. Bizarre choices if the point of this poll was to get an accurate picture.

  44. Lets see if the Salmond video, makes any difference .It clear the Tories will try and make something of it but i am not sure?

  45. “It is a 4.5 swing to Labour from Conservative, which is not too bad at all”

    Very interesting…this is in line with national and Ashcroft constituency polls….

    the man who thought this wasn’t a good poll for labour isn’t quite right.

    I can see a 4% swing from C to lab in England and Wales, largely due to UKIP and the collapse of the lib dems. the tories would be out of government if this happened, believe me.

  46. JOHNMO
    “Lets see if the Salmond video, makes any difference .It clear the Tories will try and make something of it but i am not sure?”

    Actually I think the video makes clear it WAS a joke as Salmond has always said when his words are quoted so tends to undermine the Conservative case a little.

  47. “What a disappointment the ComRes poll is – without a breakdown by seat it is utterly useless other than as a tool for the Tories to try and squeeze them. ”

    Agreed. a pretty foolish and uninformative poll. it’s neither a national poll or a constituency specific one. don’t really see the point of it, tbh.

  48. I have just read Sinbad , game changer really???

  49. @Rich & Sinbad – heard that line quite a bit over the past few weeks

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