It’s Monday, so as usual we are spoilt for polls, with new figures from Populus, Ashcroft and ICM (who are now on a weekly rota until the general election), with YouGov to come later on tonight.

Populus have voting intentions of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%. Tabs are here).

ICM have topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5% (tabs). The Conservatives are down 5 points since last week, UKIP up four points – something that is almost certainly a reversion to the mean after the incongruous six point Tory lead last week.

Lord Ashcroft has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4% (tabs). Ashcroft has also updated his Scottish constituency polls from last week with two new polls in Scotland, both in Edinburgh. Edinburgh North and Leith and Edinburgh South were both Labour -v- Lib Dem marginals at the last election, with the SNP in a poor fourth place. Ashcroft’s latest polls finds the SNP ahead in both, with a 13 point lead in Edinburgh North and Leith and a narrow three point lead in Edinburgh South (tabs, tabs).

YouGov are still to come later on tonight…

UPDATE: The last GB poll of the day – YouGov for the Sun – has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. So we have two polls giving Labour leads, two giving Conservative leads, and the polls apparently still fluctuating around an underlying picture of Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck.


654 Responses to “Monday polling round up”

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  1. Phurst!

  2. The Lib Dems’ 10% shouldn’t be given too much weight, since they had two 7% figures recently. I suppose that the best they can say is that their vote isn’t being squeezed during the campaign, presumably because it’s hard to squeeze the seeds at the centre of the core.

  3. agreed @Bill they’ll be hoping to get 10/10.5 election night which should see them hold on to around 28-32

  4. 30% is really really low for Labour relative to the last few weeks. Essentially their 2010 level…

  5. @Toby – some very strange x-breaks in there and the write up from Ashcroft has strong element of caution attached i.e England only cross break con 36, lab 33 – how does this lead increase when you include Wales and Scotland? Exactly

  6. E South seems ideal place to look for anti-snp/pro-union tactical voting.

  7. Labour % on Ashcroft one of the lowest – seems that increased Mililband factor is not working in the Ashcroft polling. Such variations around the mean must causing concern to all those involved in polling.

  8. @smithy
    ” i.e England only cross break con 36, lab 33 – how does this lead increase when you include Wales and Scotland? Exactly”

    Labour is averaging ~25% (maybe a little higher) in Scotland, and ~40% in Wales. But Wales is half the size of Scotland in terms of population.

    That’s according to the full Scots/Welsh polls. Add in crossbreak weirdness and it probably works out

  9. First!

  10. Are the Twitter rumours of Labour on 37 in tonight’s YG incorrect?

  11. Amusing serious article by Fraser Nelson about the Scottish campaign after Nicola Sturgeon met his aunt in Inverurie ( and tweeted him about it!)

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority

  12. @cover drive

    That would be great. 30% and 37% in the same day

    Who is spreading the rumour? What’s the source?

  13. great article haha, the SNP are bludgeoning their way to victory in a fashion dare I say as a student of political history, unprecedented in Great Britain. (geographically Great Britain is the island Wales, England and Scotland are on so no I haven’t forgotten the IPP)

  14. There is a Scotland poll tonight as well

    Sam Coates Times [email protected]
    Latest Times / YouGov poll on Scotland. Here. 10pm.

  15. Patience folks. Wec will get YouGov soon enough. If it is 37% then either YouGov or Ashcroft have it wrong as this goes beyond MOE.

  16. Can we ignore all the Scotland polls from now on!

  17. Looking forward to this Full Scottish at 10pm.

  18. @John Smith

    Maybe someone who goes back a really long way (@Chris Lane perhaps?) might be able to find a meaningful comparison to the SNP revolution. Me? No chance!

  19. @Mikey

    Twitter rumours are usually wrong.

  20. @Bill Patrick

    “….presumably because it’s hard to squeeze the seeds at the centre of the core.”

    Hard to squeeze, maybe, but quite easy to crush or grind.

    :-)

  21. Presumably after this election Scotland will slowly switch over to becoming a Tory vs SNP battleground, with Labour essentially extinct?

  22. One interesting thing from the ICM tables:

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_campaignpoll2.pdf#page=28

    is that they asked You may have seen or heard speculation that the election Will produce a hung parliament, where no party has enough MPs to govern on its own. If that is the outcome and you HAD to choose, which would you prefer

    a Labour government propped up by deals with Scottish Nationalist Party MPs 39%

    a Conservative government propped up by deals with Liberal Democrat, UKIP and Ulster Unionist MPs 41%

    Don’t know 12%

    Neither 7%

    What is interesting here is that the second option should be much more popular. After all Conservative, UKIP and Lib Dem supporters should all be expected to back it – 55% of all decided voters in this poll. They do to some extent, though only the Conservatives near-unanimously. Labour and Others go overwhelmingly for option one, again as you might expect.

    Given that, and that this is a poll with a Tory lead, you would think that the Lab-SNP option would be much less popular. Instead it only lags behind by the same margin as the general poll.

    Just as revealing is the lack of contrast with the following question:

    If there were a formal coalition government, with ministers coming from more than one party, and if you HAD to choose between the two, which would you prefer?

    a Labour-led coalition involving the Liberal
    Democrats 41%

    a Conservative-led coalition, involving the Liberal Democrats 41%

    which suggests that the main motivation is which Party is doing the leading. And very few people seem that repulsed by the involvement of the SNP in the first question to alter their preference when given the alternative of two SNP-free options. What little change there is comes from Lib Dems now splitting themselves equally between the two Lib Dem options – partly balanced by Others moving to Neither, though it’s all only a handful of people.

  23. 10pm is a very bad time to have a Full Scottish.

  24. RAF

    So Lab might be polling at 38% then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. RAF.
    On cue: I am back from my run around the harbour in Christchurch where Chris Chope is the Tory candidate.

    A parallel with SNP revolution is the rise of the Irish Nationalist Party led by the uncrowned King of Ireland, Charles Stuart Parnell, who merged the Land League, led by the great Michael Davitt and the Irish Home Rule Party led by Isaac Butt.
    Following the 1872 Secret Ballot Act and the 1867/1884 extension of the Franchise, Parnell’s Party held 86 MP’s after the December 1885 GE, which meant he held the Balance of Power, and Gladstone announced his ‘conversion to Home Rule, with his ‘mission to pacify Ireland’. The Liberal Party split with Whig Unionists and Radical Unionists eventually joining the Tories under Salisbury, then Balfour and Bonar Law.
    John Redmond, alluded to earlier by Jim Murphy, also held the Balance of Power after the two GE’s of 1910- January and December- when Asquith formed a ‘progressive alliance’ with the new Labour Party (Hardie, Ramsay Mac) and Redmond’s Nationalists.
    Sinn Fein made their revolution 1916-1918 when they also won the vast majority of Westminster-Irish seats, but did not turn up, since they formed the first and second Dail in their war against The British.

    That is a fairly succinct account.

  26. ComRes have helpfully commissioned a poll to inform the debate on the last thread regarding the extent of the damage that the SNP are doing to Labour’s polling in England. They even gave us an England-only tab.

    So, in response to the question ” In the event of a Hung Parliament after the election, would you like to see each of the following play a role in the next British Government or not?” we have the following responses in England:

    SNP Yes 15, No 62
    LDs Yes 37, No 39
    UKIP Yes 35, No 48

    That seems pretty conclusive to me. And for all those arguing that the challengers debate changed things, the polling concluded yesterday.

    The Conservatives have also picked up no doubt from their own polling that Salmond is even more unpopular than the SNP. So just to make maximum use of this their individually addressed freepost which will find its way to 65,000 electors in this marginal Con-Lab constituency features Salmond, not Sturgeon.

    Salmond: Yes 7, No 68

  27. @Roger Mexico

    Can you explain the difference between the ICM findings on coalitions and that of Comres?

  28. I live just outside Cheltenham. Charlton Kings is a couple of miles outside the town centre with a good number of orange posters on display for Martin Horwood. A few Blue Con posters have appeared but this looks like a Lib Dem hold as Horwood is respected by the locals.

  29. Apologies: John Murphy, not Jim Murphy

  30. @roger mexico

    On the ComRes poll SNP are even less popular than UKIP, and Sturgeon is less popular than Farage, when it comes to involvement in forming a government

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDDDniTWMAIUVnh.png:large

  31. It looks like there are a lot of seats going to change hands in various ways at this election.

    SNP +50ish. Con+10-15 and -30-50, Lab -40ish and +40-60, LD -30-40, UKIP +1-5 (from 2010).

    Don’t think I can recall such tumult in an election, although I assume some one-way landslides have been bigger in total seats changed terms.

  32. @Omni – I appreciate and understand labour’s % in Wales and especially Scotland not accounting for much towards the total score, nether the less you would certainly expect labour to be ahead of the Tories here so how can an England only got from 3pt lead to 4 when you include Wales and Scotland? Ego there’s something weird here.

  33. ChrisLane

    An interesting account of the Irish Nationalist presence in the Commons.

  34. Great stuff ChrisLane1945. So really we live in relatively calm times!

  35. PROF HOWARD.
    Thank you. ATK Stewart and Paul Bew write from a Unionist persepective, while Robert Key and Tm Pat Coogan are sympathetic to the ‘Green’ cause.

    More recently of course, the politics of Stormont 1922-1972 led to the emergence of SDLP and the Sinn Fein.

    Heath was broken partly by his break with Unionism, 1970-74.

  36. SSimon,

    It will be SNP vs. somebody, presumably, but it’s not clear to me why it would be SNP vs. Tory rather than SNP vs. Labour. The Tories are so far behind in most seats in Scotland that anti-SNP tactical voting is likely to go to Labour, not the Tories.

  37. @Chris Lane

    Fascinating. I knew you wouldn’t let me down!

  38. Interesting how Sinn Fein put across their aim to force the rest of the UK to drop the austerity agenda despite not taking their seats.

    Maybe they plan to return to the good old days to get what they want? :)

  39. CASCLC.
    We live in calm times.
    My Mother used to say she was glad that her nine children lived in London rather than Belfast or Derry (Londonerry) when it all kicked off in 1968-69.

  40. @Mikey
    I concur about Horwood in Cheltenham, I think Webb is quite safe in Thornbury too.

  41. YouGov 37%:

    Tweettwattery.

  42. I still say the Lib Dems will surprise many in how many seats they hold, but I also placed a bet on a Tory majority so I wouldn’t get to excited.

  43. Chrislane1945. A most interesting summary.

    What strikes me is that there is much talk of a progressive alliance involving the Scotsnats, Labour, and Libdems.

    This would be the first progressive alliance since the 1910 Progressive alliance between Irishnats, Labour and Libs which ended in civil war, a jagged partition, the replacement of the nationalists with Sinn Fein and the replacement of the Liberals as one of the two main parties with Labour (and would equally have resulted in unionist generated civil war if WW1 had not stopped the home rule act being implemented)

    Not a happy precedent.

  44. @Phil

    I really wouldn’t worry about it. Not going down well on the doorsteps

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/590223572796321792

    What the Conservatives need to do is shake their nasty image. Negative campaigns just reinforce it.

    Gets to what Fraser Nelson was going on about in his article. What most people are looking for is a vision. What are you going to do to make the country/ my life better if I vote for you.

    Instead they get this junk coming out of focus groups. Yes, it may turn a few votes in your target segment, but you just ignored the other 95% of voters, and it stopped you providing the vision people were looking for. Not going to win elections that way….

    You should be celebrating this imho…

  45. @Phil Haines

    I have to ask why would we (SNP Scotland voters) care?

    We are not going to stop voting SNP because the English don’t like it. Maybe if Miliband stood up for Scottish democracy Cameron & the Tory press wouldn’t be getting such a free run.

    I have just had an e-mail from Labour asking me to choose between:
    Labour Minority
    SNP coalition
    LibDem coalition

    No confidence and supply option was given. I chose SNP coalition to confuse them.

  46. Roger Mexico

    Those are interesting findings on deals or coalitions, especially as the phrasing of the first question does seem to me to be intentionally worded to conjure up negative feelings i.e. “propped up”. Given all the energy and airtime devoted by the Tories to describing a Lab / SNP arrangement in just those terms, I imagine it would be disappointing to their campaign strategists to see that the Con and Lab “propped up” arrangements come out so close.

    It suggests to me that the message is not resonating to any great extent outside the right of centre party supporters who just don’t want a Lab government whether the SNP are involved or not. (Much the same can be said of left leaning voters and any form of Con government).

  47. I’d prefer if we did not post rumours. Hints from informed sources ok but not rumours from nobody in particular.

  48. @ RAF

    Maybe someone who goes back a really long way (@Chris Lane perhaps?) might be able to find a meaningful comparison to the SNP revolution. Me? No chance!

    The LDs being expected to get 100+ seats in 2010, relegating Labour to 3rd Party? The Gang of Four being expected to get 100+ seats back in the Thatcher era, relegating Labour to being the 3rd Party?

  49. Is there a source for this twitter 37% figure?

    If not, could I tweet a Labour 40% poll tomorrow and have people repeat it here?

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