It’s Monday, so as usual we are spoilt for polls, with new figures from Populus, Ashcroft and ICM (who are now on a weekly rota until the general election), with YouGov to come later on tonight.

Populus have voting intentions of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%. Tabs are here).

ICM have topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5% (tabs). The Conservatives are down 5 points since last week, UKIP up four points – something that is almost certainly a reversion to the mean after the incongruous six point Tory lead last week.

Lord Ashcroft has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4% (tabs). Ashcroft has also updated his Scottish constituency polls from last week with two new polls in Scotland, both in Edinburgh. Edinburgh North and Leith and Edinburgh South were both Labour -v- Lib Dem marginals at the last election, with the SNP in a poor fourth place. Ashcroft’s latest polls finds the SNP ahead in both, with a 13 point lead in Edinburgh North and Leith and a narrow three point lead in Edinburgh South (tabs, tabs).

YouGov are still to come later on tonight…

UPDATE: The last GB poll of the day – YouGov for the Sun – has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. So we have two polls giving Labour leads, two giving Conservative leads, and the polls apparently still fluctuating around an underlying picture of Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck.


654 Responses to “Monday polling round up”

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  1. We used to call them ‘rogue’ polls.

  2. David,

    It’s spelt ‘rouge’.

  3. Omni

    ‘Lord Ashcroft, if you’re reading this, you know what to do. Stop polling the bloody Scots every 5 minutes and head south. The Midlands need you.’

    I’m with you there!

    Using the real polling figures for the 2010 GE for the Midlands, the vote shares were:
    Con 40.3
    Lab 30.2
    LD 20.6

    Removing Wales – using the full Welsh – from the mean of the last 10 yougov crossbreaks gives:
    Con 38
    Lab 36
    LD 6

    That’s a swing of 4%. Looks okay for Labour to me. I wonder what evidence those that say they are doing badly are basing it on.

    We know crossbreaks aren’t properly weighed, but until the Good Lord listens to Omni, there isn’t much to go on.

  4. Royal baby name latest odds

    1Alice 4/6
    2 Nicola 2/1
    3 Edward 5/2
    4.Nigel 10/1
    5.David 33/1
    6.Nicholas 50/1

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