Two polls tonight – the regular Opinium/Observer and YouGov/Sunday Times weekend polls:

YouGov have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Opinium have topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

A three point Labour lead from YouGov, a four point Conservative lead from Opinium. They are each a nice corrective for anyone liable to get too excited about the other one, we are probably just seeing normal variation about that same old underlying position of Labour and Conservative being pretty much neck and neck.


312 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. New thread on, er, Miliband

  2. @NEILJ

    Milihunk

    The Tories image narrative seems to be failing, as this was a very natural moment that was not staged. I predict that this will go viral.

  3. There’s been an assumption that Clegg would be deputy PM in a coalition should the Lib Dems hold the balancing votes (although it looks like the SNP may the party to do this).

    Remember Clegg won his constituency on the back of student votes. Historically it was a safe Tory seat (until 1997). While leaders popular or unpopular tend to hold their seats it has been known for cabinet ministers to lose their seats. Right now Clegg is both and there’s a new generation of students who are supporting him who have been hit with the 200% rise in tuition fees, his core vote may turn out to be a knife in his back.

  4. PHIL HAINES
    ALEC

    Between the two of you, the SNP election gambit is pretty well summed up.

    Post election, should Labour form the Government, it will be up to the SNP to support Labour, abstain and risk bringing down Labour, or else vote with the Conservatives and certainly bring down the Labour Government as per 1979.

    It suits Labour so much to paint the SNP into that 1979 corner that there is absolutely no prospect of SNP-Labout campaign coordination. EM even pointed that 1979 position out to NS during the last TV debate.

  5. Alec
    There is an interesting article by Andrew Gilligan in today’s telegraph about the “faith-based” appeal of the SNP.
    You are of course right about the realities. Northern Europe is full of examples of parties unable to have effective influence because they can only support one side of the centre. For example in Sweden there is a minority social democrat led government. There is a coaliton agreement with the Greens (who have in the past been open to working with the centre right) but no agreement with the Left Party. In practice the Greens get very little in an arrangement where they voted in quick succession for renewal of nuclear power, increased umber of submarines and an increase in the order for attack jets. For decades, the Left Party has always voted with the social democrats in any serious vote. What choice do they have?

  6. domg

    Do you too need to be reminded that Scotland is as much a part of the UK as Surrey is? Who are these mythical English voters who are so terrified of the SNP? I haven’t met any here in Oxfordshire. If anything people seem to have been impressed by NS. I suspect those who do see them as some ‘alien threat’ (the right does need it’s outside threats to galvanize itself it would seem) are dyed in the wool Tories in any case.
    ————————————————————————-

    If that was the case Labour would also state what you are stating, people are comfortable and it is all Troy hype. Are they? No.

    Labour would suffer in the UK, by the electorate.
    The fear is, should they go into a C&S with SNP, they vote share plummet to 20% in England, and Wales, after the election.

    I believe the attack has not even started on Labour re SNP, I believe that it will take shape in the last week.

    We will have to wait and see.

  7. ALEC
    You only have power if you have options. The SNP have removed their second option.

    As I think you are well aware, for SNP to have said anything else would have been an invitation for everyone to vote LiS and continuance of the Bain Principle in the HoC.

    If Con+whoever > 323 then SNP can fight the 2016 GE on an anti-Westminster basis, which should be pretty popular I suspect.

    If Lab+SNP > 323 but Lab don’t vote down a Con minority QS then that’s probably suicide for LiS in 2016

    If Lab+whoever > 323 and vote every SNP amendment down, it will be much the same as Con+whoever, except perhaps NOT having an EU referendum and perhaps removing LiS entirely from the equation.

    If Lab+SNP+whoever > 323 and any SNP amendment wins, LiS will still exist but SNP can fight the 2016 GE on the basis that Scottish votes count for more than LiS lobby-fodder.

    Wish I could post it as a logic tree table, but HMTL support doesn’t seem to be up to that on these thread.

  8. SCOTTY
    Post election, should Labour form the Government, it will be up to the SNP to support Labour, abstain and risk bringing down Labour, or else vote with the Conservatives and certainly bring down the Labour Government as per 1979.

    As you presumably well know the final straws in 1979 were the SDLP abstention and Freud over FOI. I can appreciate why Lab endlessly refer to the SNP action but seldom, if ever, mention the “votes for the dead” which Lab rebels pushed through with the Cons over the referendum, blamed by Callaghan himself in his memoirs.

    If Lab form a government where Lab+whoever < 323 but SNP would make it > 323 then SNP will keep voting for them in confidence votes but will be free to vote as they wish on everything else. Should any of those things not prove popular in Scotland it will do SNP no harm at all in the 2016 GE.

    Of course Lab+Con could at some point agree to ditch the FTPA and join forces but that is hardly going to help LiS.

  9. Jack

    ‘I agree that Boris is likeable but not PM material. If we become a republic and have a ceremonial/mostly ceremonial head of state, then I can see Boris becoming president and doing a good job. In particular, he seems to play well abroad and would be a good representative of the UK, just like the Queen is today.’

    Agree – but would he shut up enough for the role?
    —————————————————————————–

    He has an appeal to middle England, don’t ask me why.

    He is like Brown in relation to Tony Blair’s 2005 election. Bring in the disillusioned Lab voters, Blair had an issue, he had Middle England, he just did not have the trust of working class, Brown had that.

    Boris will attract a % of the electorate, also he would boomerang some of Labours assault , articulately rubbishing them, in a humorous manner. He will bring life and humour to the election, the media would love it. He will get +ve airtime.

    Even to me ,first time round, questioned Boris’s suitability for the position of Mayor of London

    Second time round, he was an acquired taste.

    He has that personality, which appeals to Southern England, and that is where the “Battle of Briton” is being fought.

    “Battle of Scotland” looks like being in the bag for the SNP.

    Saying that, SNP has to push the polls to 55% to assure total victory, that will then set into motion, the next stage, “Independence Day”

  10. Jack,

    I don’t know. I don’t have a TV, so I don’t know how much he talks.

  11. DOMG

    Do you too need to be reminded that Scotland is as much a part of the UK as Surrey is? Who are these mythical English voters who are so terrified of the SNP?

    =======

    Apparently they are on the doorsteps of England

  12. Definite shift to Labour in betting odds today:

    Next PM:
    Miliband: 5/6
    Cameron: Evens

    Next Government:
    Lab Minority:: 6/4
    Tory Minority: 11/4

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