Three weeks to go

Here are this week’s GB polls:

Opinium/Observer (9/4) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (10/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/S Times (11/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
ICM/Guardian (12/4) – CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%, GRN 7%
Populus (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (13/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
TNS (13/4) – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (14/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (15/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ipsos MORI/Standard (15/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%
Panelbase (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (16/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Populus (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (17/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%

Voting intention continues to be pretty much static, with levels of Conservative and Labour support extremely close. There were sixteen polls published in the last week, nine had the two parties within a point of each other. The UKPR polling average is back to showing a tie – CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 5%(nc). It is hardly been an exciting election campaign anyway, but certainly nothing seems to have made any significant impact upon voting intention and we are running out of time for anything to do so. The first postal ballots will have gone out this week.

Other polls

This week we’ve also had ComRes polling of Lib Dem seats in the South West and Ashcroft polling of some seats in Scotland. I’ve written about both of them at length already – Ashcroft here and ComRes here.

Week fifteen

This week was manifesto week – the five main GB parties all published their manifestos, though the SNP are saving theirs for later in the campaign. YouGov have done two bits of polling on the manifesto for the Times and the Sun.

The most widely supported policy in the Labour manifesto was to reduce the deficit every year (76% support – largely because it got the backing of Tory voters too), followed by the promise to raise the minimum wage to £8 (71% support), freezing utility bills (65%) and the mansion tax (61%) – none of their main policy announcements got a thumbs down.

Looking at the Conservative manifesto the most popular policy was linking the personal tax allowance to the minimum wage (supported by 80%, again because it got wide cross party support), followed by stopping above inflation rail fare rises (67%) and lowering the benefit cap to £23k (65%). Unlike Labour some of the main Conservative policies got a thumbs down – opening 500 new Free Schools only got 26% support, the flagship announcement of extending right to buy to housing associations only got 28% support.

I shall make my usual caveats about overestimating the importance of individual policies. Despite Labour’s individual policies polling better, in the same poll the Conservatives had a narrow lead on having the best policies and ideas for the country (29% Conservative, 26% Labour). Neither do people pay much attention to these announcements – a separate YouGov poll for the Sun found that the right to buy policy was the only one of the manifesto policy announcements tested that a majority of people could correctly link to the right party – in most cases less than a third of people were able to say which party had proposed it.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, as well as the less regular prediction from the Polling Observatory team who released some new numbers today. As ever, all show a hung Parliament, but most are now showing Labour with more seats in a hung Parliament – with the notable exception of Steve Fisher’s model, which has the Tories with about 30 more seats than Labour. On the subject of the differences between the models, Chris Hanretty of the Election Forecast team wrote a blog post earlier this week.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 292(+3), LAB 260(-6), LD 22(nc), SNP 51(+2), UKIP 4(-1)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 280(-2), LAB 277(+2), LD 27(-1), SNP 42(+1), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 268(+3), LAB 276(-3), LD 26(nc), SNP 54(nc), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 269(-2), LAB 271(nc), LD 29(nc), SNP 55(+2), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 266(+2), LAB 279(+2), LD 27(-1), SNP 50(-5), UKIP 5(+1)
Polling Observatory – Hung Parliament, CON 268, LAB 278, LD 28, SNP 49, UKIP 3


670 Responses to “Three weeks to go”

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  1. @ Colin

    Perhaps you didn’t read of it-it was after all done withe Press excluded., unlike Cameron’s visit today.

    My opinion: Perhaps Ed Miliband sincerely wanted to engage with the community he was visiting & David Cameron wanted a PR opportunity with the press in tow?

    Well, you did ask. ;-)

  2. new thread on tonight’s polls

  3. Anyways, there’s a new thread.

  4. @ Oldnat

    The polls at the moment are showing that Lab plus SNP at best has a majority of one. That isn’t a stable Gov. They’d need the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems won’t join them unless the Lab has the most seats and votes therefore you need to vote Lab to get a Lab led Gov. Simple!

    I understand you’re a SNP supporter but have you ever posted anything that goes against the party line?

  5. ROBERT NEWARK

    :-)

    I have a feeling it is EM he will be talking to-to explain how long it is before you have to ditch all your Socialist ideas, and return to sanity.

    He could save us all a pile of grief if he gets on with it.

  6. BigD

    And that’s the LD problem. They have lost such a large amount of support through being in coalition that they are fighting Con, Lab and SNP on the ground. It’s very difficult to deliver a message which will work against all opponents.

  7. SYZYGY
    Wasn’t there an academic report suggesting that the Tories were pouring their funds into their ‘safe’ seats rather than as expected into the marginals? I’m afraid that I can’t find the reference but I have a feeling that it was the LSE.

    Well aren’t they doing the 40/40 strategy? All funds and effort to defend forty seats and attack in forty more. Though there is some suggestion they’ve changed it to a 48/40 recently.

    Labour list also suggested that they had found evidence in URL’s of candidates that a whole tranche of seats were being deserted altogether in terms of real support… either because they are nailed on wins (Boris for instance) or considered unwinnable.

  8. AMBER

    I didn’t need to ask you Amber :-)

    I did think a comparison of the two visits was significant though-definitely.

  9. LASZLO

    Time for your cocoa & bed then.

    You will feel better in the morning I trust.

  10. @ Syzygy, @ Crossbat11

    No more than anecdotal, but I live in the safest Tory constituency in the UK, and in the election period absolutely nothing from the Tories yet. UKIP, Lab, and one of the independents have all got their leaflets out, but Green and LD are also missing in action.

    If the Tories are pouring their money into the safe seats it doesn’t look like they are in a rush to spend it.

    What I find particularly surprising about the lack of info from the Tories is that the incumbent (Hague) is retiring and the new official Tory candidate was not a popular choice among at least some of the local party. So much so, that one of the local councillors who was hoping to be selected resigned in a huff and is standing as an independent.

    Even worse from the Tories point of view a very high profile local right of centre independent who constantly campaigns on better local services (anti hospital closures, better rural bus services etc) is also standing. I’d still be astonished if this was the first time since 1910 that there isn’t a Tory MP here, but the lack of visible effort smells of complacency.

  11. AW

    Thank’s for your explanation of my direct mail shot puzzler, I only hope that not all the parties take up the mailshot offer, there are five candidates standing in my constituency and I know others have even more.
    Regards

  12. @ Laszlo

    quantitative methodologies used in social science won’t help us in this, because they are driven by publication targets

    It’s a broader problem than just in the social sciences, but you’re right.

    Still, it’s as useful as anything else Stephen Fisher might be spending his time on…

    @ Eddie,

    Well said. I think you’re right. In a way both parties have been captured by London- the Tories by the City, Labour by a sort of globalism- in a way that’s left a big chunk of their core support behind.

  13. @CB

    In the ward I am standing in we have Conservative & UKIP opposition. So far we are the only party to have put out any literature…which is all the more surprising because one of the UKIP candidates is a printer!

  14. @Catoswyn

    ” Our seat here switched mainly due to an expenses scandal.” Same here. Not sure about ‘mainly’ but certainly it was a factor.

    I have posted before about the incumbency bonus for first-termers being counterbalanced by the unwinding of the expenses unbonus. I’m pretty sure that will happen here.

  15. Labour certainly coming out on top over last week of Yougov polls…

  16. Seat forecasts that have moved against Lab in last 48 hours:
    Ladbrokes
    Fisher
    Election Forecast
    Electoral Calculus
    Guardian
    May 2015

    All now show a tie (Guardian) or Con ahead

    Polling Observatory moved a couple of seats in Lab’s favour but was pre Ashcroft Scottish marginal polls.

    YouGov (Nowcast & Kellner) and UKElect yet to update.

    Add to that polls showing swing to Con (ICM, Populus, TNS, Opinium, Survation) and all Lab can cling to is YG and MORI.
    There’s no doubt now Con will be largest party.

  17. The UKIP support I see on the ground just does not tie in with the polls, it’s far greater. Maybe it’s just my east coast constituency, a safe Tory seat but colleagues in other nearby ones report the same thing.

    I think the election is wide open and totally unpredictable. The usual polls have a quite a good record ( usually) but this time I believe they are well off. At a rough guess, Labour most seats but no majority, Libs about wiped out and largely replaced by UKIP, who will also have a huge number of second places.

    Whatever way you look at our broken electoral system will be clearly highlighted.

  18. EXILEINYORKS
    No more than anecdotal, but I live in the safest Tory constituency in the UK, and in the election period absolutely nothing from the Tories yet.

    So you’re in Richmond then, where Hague was one of the 215 MPs who received a real [>50% of votes] majority in 2010, although in fairness to him, the beast of Bolsover should probably be added to that list, having received precisely 50% of the votes cast in 2010.

    Will Hague’s replacement by a Wykehamist Oxonian have much impact on the Con vote share, do you think?

  19. 3 weeks to go, hung parliament looming and yet still we cant leave any comments on the Northern Ireland seats. Its as if they dont even exist!!!!!!!!!!!

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