Two new GB voting intention polls today, with the regular YouGov/Sun poll still to come. The two polls so far are both wholly in line with the overall average – Lab and Con pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour just a tad ahead.

Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 10%(-3), GRN 8%(+2). Full details of the polling are here.

Meanwhile Panelbase have figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 4%(nc). There’s a shift to the Tories here, but it’s almost certainly just a reversion to the mean – the previous Panelbase poll was that unusual six point Labour lead. Full tabs are here.


766 Responses to “Latest MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. For the sake of balance Ed M was always in favour of electoral reform.

    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12754592

    However he struggled to persuade MP’s / Lords etc to support AV, which was a less proportional system that arguably favoured Labour more than FPTP.

    Don’t rate his chances persuading them on PR.

  2. @statgeek

    Is there somewhere to find the figures of voter registration levels in E and W?

  3. No idea. I found the BBC link on Twitter. You see what I saw.

  4. @Catoswyn

    Registration does not close until Monday. Maybe we’ll get percentages soon afterwards.

  5. @ 07052015

    “Reckon Cameron will make NS an offer she cant refuse.”

    If they need to on May 8th then Osborne and him will certainly try something as a desperate last roll of the dice. It will take us all by surprise. I don’t think there is anything they wouldn’t sacrifice to remain in No10.

  6. Election boards are up around here now. Big change from last election. Vote ‘Tessa Munt’ has been changed to ‘Vote Tessa’. I guess the prolific graffiti attacks last time had been noted!

  7. @Gary O

    I like STV, but it’s too complicated for English voters (condescending mode: ON). The only PR system that has a chance therefore for UK elections is the Party List system.

  8. @Catoswyn

    I believe Jeremy Hunt has a similar difficulty.

  9. MAD 25-poll time-weighted

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2014/09/here/ (set of ten)

    Basically Lab a touch in front in GB and a smidgen behind in England & Wales.

  10. During the past couple of days I have become more confident that some form of PR will be introduced in the next 10 to 20 years. Yesterday while fell walking I was talking to a friend who is a true blue (I try to maintain friendships with such people :-) ) His words were “I have come around to your way of thinking at last. We need PR”. Fortunately we were not walking along a sharp ridge at this point!!! His rationale was essentially that his vote is a wasted vote. We worked out that there are probably only two seats (Berwick & Stockton ) in Northumberland and Durham where your vote could be important.

    While this has been mentioned in the past, it has not been the main thrust from the pro PR groups cf. the unfairness to the smaller parties. IMO there should be more focus on the aspect of wasted vote.

    On last night’s QT, the audience were very vocal in their lack of trust re the political system in general and politicians in particular. This lack of trust should be harnessed by the pro PR parties. A groundswell of public opinion could make Con and Lab think again.

  11. New thread on the Ashcroft polling

  12. RAF

    I know what you mean about STV. I actually quite liked the AV+ Jenkins proposals that got shelved. Part constituency, part list. Gave voters more choice and ensured representation for minor parties that exceed a reasonable threshold in terms of vote share.

    Not as proportional as some systems but more likely to create stable governments occasionally.

  13. Personally I think the MP as local rep. is overrated and would be quite happy to have a system such as was used in the European elections for national politics.

  14. I can’t find a single thing to say about the Ashcroft Scottish poll. I have accepted that the SNP are entrenched and Labour/Lib Dem are, whatever their respective leaders say, in deep trouble. Sad about Charles Kennedy though… I always liked him. Hope he hangs on.

  15. Peter Bell

    Same thing happened to Labour after they were unable to win an election from 1979 onwards – lots of people in the Labour Party suddenly wanted PR /voting reform and it even ended up in the manifesto.

    And promptly got ditched when they won the election.

    If it gains traction with Tory party members and MP’s then it will be temporary until they win an election again.

    Re the public – unfortunately trying to get a lot of people animated about electoral reform in order to push it up the agenda has always been a problem. After the last election Clegg ignored the PR demonstrations outside his HQ and settled for the ‘miserable compromise of AV.’

    Which he lost.

    I think that will probably end up being analysed as setting the cause for electoral reform back at least a generation.

  16. GARY O > RAF
    I know what you mean about STV. I actually quite liked the AV+ Jenkins proposals that got shelved. Part constituency, part list. Gave voters more choice and ensured representation for minor parties that exceed a reasonable threshold in terms of vote share.

    Snap.

    Basically the Holyrood & Cardiff Bay system but with AV for the constituency seats. That existing system works pretty well [hence the comparisons on this thread with what 50% means] but with AV would be even fairer and still have the constituency link between MP & local residents.

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