YouGov January Poll
YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has topline voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 38%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 18%(+3). The poll was conducted between the 22nd and 24th January – that is in the middle of last week, so prior to much of the present deluge of stories about the Home Office.
The changes to Tory and Labour support since last month are insigificant, the Liberal Democrats are up 3 points, a jump similar to their advance in ICM’s last poll. As I suggested back in December I suspect that the apparant drop in Lib Dem last month was really nothing at all, possibly just strange samples popping up because of the Christmas period, and they do indeed seem to have popped back up again this month.
On YouGov’s other trackers, David Cameron remains slightly ahead on the best Prime Minister against either Brown or Blair (though a whopping 37% and 40% of people said don’t know. Asked why 47% of those said they didn’t think much of any of them, 19% said they didn’t think much of politicians per se).
The Conservatives remain very slightly ahead on who would best run the economy. On the forced choice question between a Cameron led Conservative government and a Brown led Labour government, considered a possible clue to the direction that tactical voting will operate in the future, the Conservative/Cameron lead is down to 6 points, compared to 12 points a month ago. Liberal Democrat voters split 45-34 in favour of Brown.
Filed under: Voting Intention, YouGov
Is there any trend on the Lib-Dem split?
Seems interesting to have a marginal increase in Tory support, marginal fall in Labour support – but a significant fall in the Best Prime Minister lead. I guess that is a swing in the Lib-Dem split?
I think the key to the Tories winning the next election is not necessarily the headline voting figures, but gaining a clear lead on competence to best run the economy – especially against Brown.
Sorry to double-post, but is there any polling to indicate the high inflation figures etc have had any impact yet on people’s perceptions of either the economy or the governments managing of it?
Philip, it gets complicated because the people making up the Lib Dem voters themselves change. If there has been a shift of support from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives, then presumably the proportion of Lib Dems who would prefer Cameron to Brown will fall, if the Lib Dems gain support from Labour then the proportion of people who prefer Brown to Cameron will probably rise (and of course, vice-versa in both cases). Hard to discern trends when the population could be constantly changing.
As a natural conservative and thus a life-long Conservativevoter, I am surprised that anyone supports ‘Camera-on’ at all. Whilst the party supports the concept that Government has a role to play in the lives of ordinary, law-abiding people, it has lost the plot – it is, in a real sense, no longer ‘conservative’.
The current bloated public sector has to be ruthlessly cut to levels not seen in this country in the last 50 years, if we are to compete with the energy and work-ethic of the so-called ‘Tiger economies’ of SE Asia.
That means that the role of the Govt should be restricted to defence and public and personal safety. Roads, rail, NHS, education – all disasterous under decades of Govt mismangement. Social security, planning etc? – sell the lot off and devolve the power from Whitehall not merely to local councils but to local people themselves – with the role of the council to filter the options available and then put them to the people via internet-based plebiscites.
The old concept of government by a wealthy, then educated, then informed elite collapses utterly when the internet provides us all with the information needed to make informed judgements.
My vote goes to the first party that TRULY says ‘power to the people’ – and cuts Govt expenditure to around 20-25% of GDP, rather than the 40+% we suffer from now.
The ONLY party pledged to be ‘conservative’ is now UKIP – so come on chaps – lets ALL get Camera-on and all he stands for (if anything – just what DOES he believe in?) ‘Ca-marooned’ in opposition for ever.
How ANYONE can support this disgraceful, destructive and malicious incompetent and corrupt maladministration is beyond me. The PM is well named B-Liar!
This will disappoint Tory supporters, but the Conservative vote really hasn’t increased much over the last few years, especially with YouGov.
When Michael Howard was Tory leader, I remember YouGov putting Conservative support in the high 30s quite regularly, and even on 40% a few times.
David Cameron really needs to hit 40% sometime this year. If he doesn’t, he’ll have to get ready for coalition government, I think.
Well we’re still WMA 38:32:18 as per June. “Labour has no leader, Tories have no policies, polls have no direction” All of these will change before the election – then we’ll see!
Anthony I came across a pb.com thread on July 17th last year with a regional South West poll by Marketing Means . Strangely their website does not seem to give any poll results after 2005 . Do you have any more references to it or whether there will be any more . On the Yorkshire poll thread we were bemoaning the lack of regional polls .
Are “regional” polls that helpful, given that:
a) it must be cost as much to define the population structure of a region as for the whole country – and you are only going to use it occasionally – i.e. it is not a good cost-balance, so the pollsters are unlikely to do it properly.
b) they are themselves so rare that it is difficult to compare one to the other.
There were a series of South West polls by this company ( a regionally based company anyway ) in the run up to the last GE and were pretty accurate compared to the actual result . A Welsh poll would be most useful to give clarity to all the hype coming out of there at the moment .
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2201115.ece for an article on the current Independent poll.