There are two polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers, YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer. Neither suggests anything other than business as usual.

YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. Opinium have topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%.

Full update to come tomorrow (in the meantime, the Election Guide part of the site is now updated to take account of the full nomination lists in all GB constituencies with the exception of Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington, where nominations still aren’t on the council website).

162 Responses to “Saturday night Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. @Norbold
    “I don’t think it is a tough call for Labour at all. It just plays into the narrative of the Tories being a party for the rich. In that sense the whole of Labour’s strategy is anti inspirational but it doesn’t seem to have done any particular harm and has in fact shored up the RedDems and maybe Green switchers.”

    The battle lines on both sides have been clearly drawn in this campaign. It’s preaching to the converted but ensuring there is sufficient meat for them to be bothered to attend the lunch.

    It’s clever as IHT is an unpopular tax anyway.

  2. @David Collby

    That’s why polling is so important and of particular importance to political strategist because it is very hard to judge your own campaign. For example Labour thought Jim Murphy did brilliantly in the STV debate but he came a poor third. For my own part I believe that SNP are not much disliked by anyone, but polling data does suggest otherwise and potential for an anti-SNP vote which may make a small difference in the GE but is likely to have more of an effect in the 2017 council elections if it continues. So if I was an SNP strategist I would be planning to start reaching out to the unionists and centrist voters at some point prior to 2017.

  3. Bill Patrick

    It’s the lack of media scrutiny that gets up my nose. And that applies all round and to all parties.

    Inheritance tax seems to be a ‘core vote’ policy.
    NHS seems to be designed to try and trump Labour – remains to be seen if it will.

    Will be interesting to see if the polls move at all though based on any policy announcements from any party as they’ve been pretty static for around a month now with just a slight uptick for the main three parties at the expense of the smaller parties.

  4. New thread

  5. Regarding the YG methodological changes.

    Five polls published under the new method (weighted for likelihood to vote). Four have been identical when compared to the old method.

    Last night’s has a increase of the Conservative VIe from 33 to 34.

    It does look a negligible change, but the data is still available in the on the old format anyway.

  6. AW

    I think one of the difficulties with polls about Inheritance Tax is that most people probably don’t understand exactly how it works as it probably doesn’t affect them or any of their family.

    However the principle that someone might tax your money/assets after you’ve died SEEMS unfair.

    I suspect that the polling is more of a reaction to the principle than the actual policy / tax itself.

    Also the poll doesn’t reveal how strongly people feel about the issue. Certainly it’s not an issue that appears on the radar when people get asked what might decide their vote so its clearly not something that consumes very many people.

    If a sustained campaign explained how it worked (as a tax on fairy wealthy peoples assets) and how many were affected / not affected, then I think that attitudes about its fairness or unfairness may change substantially.

  7. Just looking at the election guide of ukpr, many scottish seats had big lab majorities over snp last election.
    If so many safe seats are lost , considering the swing required, it’ s a disaster for scottish labour and Murphy should resign.

  8. Albert

    No guarantee that Murphy is even going to win his own seat so it’s very likely in those circumstances that he might have to resign.

  9. Albert

    I don’t think LiS situation has changed much since he became leader. It would be a bit harsh if he was exclusively blamed. He has been handed the proverbial poison chalice.

  10. Curiously, noone bothered to provide the latest Opinium numbers on this thread:

    Con 36% (+3)
    Lab 34% (-1)
    UKIP 11% (-3)
    LD 7% (0)
    Green 6% (-1)
    SNP 4% (0)

    Mostly fluctuation between Conservatives and UKIP I would say.

  11. 20-poll geometric median w/changes since yesterday
    con: 33.3% (+0.1)
    lab: 34.3% (+0.1)
    lib: 8.2% (-0.1)
    ukip: 13.8% (-0.3)
    grn: 4.9% (+0.1)
    oth: 5.4% (-)

    I note that the YouGov Election Centre hasn’t updated yet today – presumably they realised that they were breaking their clients’ embargoes.

  12. GARY O
    Both proposals seem tobe pork barrel electioneering,rather than planned. If the long-term plan is all made up of this stuff,God help us.
    The give away on inherited homes may, in many minds,recall the fact that retaining high value in homes through periods of house price inflation has been a matter of a roll of the generational dice, and add to the notion which we may all have of an unearned imbalance in wealth distribution, of greatest unfairness to non-home owners and to those of the 25 to 35 y.o. cohort unable to get onto the housing ladder. Why, it will be wondered, further perpetuate unearned wealth by chance of birth?

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