Four weeks to go

Here are this week’s polls – slightly fewer than usual because of the Easter bank holiday, meaning we didn’t get the usual Ashcroft poll on Monday.

Survation/Mirror (3/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 3%
Opinium/Observer (3/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
YouGov/S Times (4/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
Populus (6/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (7/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
TNS BMRB (7/4) – CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 19%, GRN 4%
ComRes/ITV/Mail (8/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (8/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Populus (8/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (9/4) – CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Panelbase (9/4) – CON 31%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (9/4) – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%

Most of the polls continue to be close (with a couple of notable exceptions towards the end of the week), but we’ve seen significantly more Labour than Conservative leads in the last week, putting the UKPR polling average back to a one point Labour lead – CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 15%(+1), GRN 5%(nc). It’s too early to be confident there has been any real change, but it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

Scottish, constituency and other polling

If it hasn’t been too busy a week for GB polls, there has been a wide selection of other polls. Last weekend there was a ComRes poll of Thanet South (the seat where Nigel Farage is standing) which showed the race as almost a dead heat between the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour. It provoked an attempt by UKIP to try and pooh-pooh ComRes’s methodology, which I wrote about at length here.

There were two Scottish polls, both of them showing no sign of the SNP’s lead fading away. Panelbase found an SNP lead of 16 points over Labour, up from 10 in their previous poll (though it’s possible that was connected to question order). Tabs for that are here. Last night YouGov put out a new Scottish poll conducted after the first of the Scottish leader debates and straddling the second of them – it found the SNP’s lead growing, up to 24 points over Labour. Tabs for that are here.

Lord Ashcroft released another batch of his own constituency polling mid-week, this time returning to some Con -v- Lab marginal seats where he had previously found tight races. These don’t tell us much about the national race (they were a selection of seats that were showing a smaller than average swing to begin with) but give us some details on the individual races. More details here.

Finally, I saw an unusual county level poll of Kent today – conducted by Facts International (the company who do the fieldwork for ComRes’s phone polls for the Mail). They found voting intentions in Kent of CON 39%, LAB 22%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 24%. That would be a 5% swing from Con to Lab, which on a uniform swing wouldn’t be enough for any seats to change hands (Labour’s closest target seat in Kent is Dover, which needs a 5.2% swing). Of course, the seats in Kent that are actually most interesting are not Labour targets, but UKIP ones – holding Rochester & Strood and trying to win Thanet South, and a uniform swing across Kent isn’t much good in predicting the distribution of UKIP’s vote.

Week Fourteen

This week doesn’t seem to have been a good one for the Conservatives. The start of the week was was largely dominated by Labour’s policy on non-doms, the end over arguments about Trident which became overshadowed by rows about the language Michael Fallon used to criticise Ed Miliband. How you tax rich people and whether or not the Conservatives are too nasty, to put it mildly, strong issues for the Tories. I expect we’ll get polling on all of these issues at the weekend.

Yesterday was also the close of nominations for the general election. I’ll be trying to get the Election Guide part of the site updated as soon as possible to reflect the full official candidate lists (so excuse me if I go a bit quiet!)

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below. As ever, all show a hung Parliament – currently two are predicting the Tories to have more seats, two Labour to have more seats, and the Guardian’s model a dead heat.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 289(-11), LAB 266(+8), LD 22(+2), SNP 49(+2), UKIP 5(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 282(-2), LAB 275(-1), LD 28(+2), SNP 41(+1), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 265(-13), LAB 279(+12), LD 26(+1), SNP 54(nc), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 271(-5), LAB 271(+1), LD 29(+1), SNP 53(+3), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 264(+2), LAB 277(+1), LD 28(nc), SNP 55(-1), UKIP 4(-3)


463 Responses to “Four weeks to go”

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  1. Date based on that list of 12 polls:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/data.png

    If you get bored with that, there’s always pick a colour:

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/2015/04/pick-colour-colour/

  2. @Statgeek

    These graphs don’t change much do they?

    I know that feeling…

  3. Four forecasts have now changed today. Four now have Labour winning most seats. Two the Tories winning most seats. And one tie. The average has Labour winning 3 more seat than the Tories.

    See tables etc here:

    https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=698F47EA25B48A7A!445840&authkey=!AGl3cD–MlKA7dw&ithint=file%2cpdf

  4. not first

  5. Hi everyone, love this site!

    UKIP are probably at least 25% IF you take out London and Scotland.

    :D

  6. Is this the swingback we were getting after Easter?

    For what its worth my model, as described on the previous thread, now gives:

    Party Seats
    Con 271
    Lab 282
    LD 21
    SNP 52
    UKIP 2
    Grn 1
    PC 2
    UN 9
    SF 5
    SDLP3
    All 1

    This include a double inc bonus +3% for Cons.
    Without it Lab on 300, Cons 252.
    The Con to Lab swing in England outside London: +5.6%

  7. Gary,

    You have a formatting error for the LD’s in the Guardian forecast. Not even the most wildly optimistic LD supporter is anticipating an 830% vote share. :-)

  8. John Curtice’s latest forecast for the Independent / i newspapers gives Labour >300 seats. Headline suggests that means Labour could form a pact / coalition / whatever with the Lib Dems and ignore the SNP. No exact figures yet.

  9. @Sinbad

    UKIP would need to be polling at 19.6% for that to be the case. And polling 0% in London and Scotland.

  10. Rory out in 40. Whoever had that accumulator, it’s looking shaky!

  11. TheSheep

    Sinbad’s suggestion was to “take out” Scotland and London.

    I thought that was a somewhat over violent suggestion.

  12. No Sinbad,
    As I said on the previous thread, London, Wales and Scotland only make up 25% of the electorate so removing them – which also removes UKIP voters (half a million).
    On the new poll of polls tonight, UKIP have gone up to 15% (+1%).
    So in England outside London UKIP are on approx 17.7%.

  13. OldNat

    Reminds me of this line from Father Ted.
    “When you said you would take care of him, I didn’t think you meant in an Al Pacino way.”

  14. So, regardless of your political persuasion, you have to accept a good week for Labour (at least outside Scotland). What AW doesn’t mention is the continuing improvement in Milliband’s ratings. Attacking Milliband on a personal level has clearly been part of the Tory strategy but it’s not working and in danger of backfiring. The question is whether the Tories are able to change strategy quickly (the name conservative always suggests to me not). However, Cameron has always struck me as weak strategically but strong tactically. So next week might tell us who is really running the Tory campaign…

  15. FPT

    Raf – “Let’s assume Unionist tactical voting on an epic scale was in prospect. The majority of seats are SNP/Labour battles. If I were a Scottish Tory, would I really prefer a Labour UK majority to a Lab/Tory UK minority government?”

    Well prominent Scottish Tories such as Fraser Nelson have indicated they’d vote tactically. Even Scottish Tories in the govt such Michael Gove have said they’d vote tactically. see

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/04/07/michael-gove-admits-he-would-prefer-labour-win-in-scotland-rather-than-snp_n_7021930.html

    I know SNP supporters are keen to opine that Scottish Tories would never vote tactically – but how well do you really understand how they think, given they are completely different animals to yourselves? My sense is that they are feeling vulnerable in a way English Tories are not, and have different priorities. Which opposition party is better, the one that would trap you in a nightmare foreign country or the one that would keep you connected with England and the English Tories?

  16. @cloudspotter

    Thanks.

    darkcloudspotter ;)

  17. Straight average of last 10 polls

    Lab 34.1
    Con 32.4

    Ten polls before that

    Lab 33.9
    Con 33.9

    Maybe MoE. Maybe the Survation and Panelbase “outliers”?

    Maybe.

  18. So the UKIP squeeze has actually officially started reversing.

  19. Since before the start of the “short campaign” I make it Lab +1, Con -1.5, LD +1 Green -1 UKIP variable between pollsters.

  20. @ Unicorn – from previous thread

    So here are the UKIP figures for polling by Lord A in the ten constituencies between March 28th-4th:

    Blackpool North and Clevelly’s 24%>15% -9%
    Gloucester 18%>12% -6%
    Harrow East 13%>9% -4%
    Hove 11%>5% -6%
    Kingswood 23%>15% -8%
    Loughborough 12%>12% nc
    Morecombe and Lunesdale 18%>12% -6%
    Pendle 17%>10% -7%
    Pudsey 15%>8% -7%
    Stocton South 19%>9% -10%

    They clearly show a decline in UKIP support since last summer and fall, but the problem is that it looks like UKIP took a 1.5% bounce up and LD supposedly took a 1% bounce up, after the debate, while Conservatives dropped 2.3% since the debate.

    So we will have to see what next weeks Lord A constituency polls bring. The one thing I will observe is that there could be a swingback to LD in Conservative-LD marginals and LD-Conservative marginals, as I believe those were most recent LD voters to leave LD and that they could come back.

    Other than that I still do not believe that LD voters who went to Green shortly after the 2010 election will be enticed back to LD, and note that the swing away from Green since the debate is at best .5% and that Labour has only grown .3% since the debate so far.

    Thus it is the swing from Conservative to UKIP and LD, that is giving Labour it’s lead, thus the Conservative campaign is bleeding to the left and right.

  21. @ Anthony Wells

    Would it be helpful to write up your note to LRR in the last thread to a post? It was quite revelling.

    I still think that the “popular” models are (rightly but overly) preoccupied with false positives, while ignoring false negatives.

  22. Revelling = revealing…

  23. Apparently the Mail leads on a new poll – The Duke of Rothesay and the Earl of Strathearn are both on 43% to seize power in Buckingham Palace in the next monarchical election.

    Should be an exciting contest!

  24. Dont think tories will change ,they think that the current dont knows who intend to vote and make up their mind in the last two weeks will be swayed by leadership and the LTEP .

    My bet has lost rory but I still have two singles and a double on labour largest party and wolves to go up(the banker)

  25. @candy

    Could you explain how not voting tactically against the SNP in May will “trap you in a nightmare foreign country”?

    Your link does not say that Gove would vote tactically himself just that he would prefer a Labour rather than an SNP victory. As far as I am aware he isn’t registered to vote in Scotland so any view he might express would be hypothetical anyway.

    For an analytical and dispassionate assessment of the probability and impact of tactical voting in Scotland you might like to read Professor Curtice’s article referenced on he previous thread.

    Of course your “sense” of how Scottish Tories feel may be much more informative and accurate.

  26. Hireton

    Gove urged Tories in Scotland to vote Tory, but that he would prefer others to vote Labour than SNP.

    (The LDs didn’t rate a mention from him, so there is little clarity as to what he wants them to do).

  27. Are YG now polling 7 days a week?

  28. I think so RAF so there should be a YouGov any minute

  29. The Kent poll if accurate is a bit of a shocker isn’t it?

    Conservative 39%
    UKIP 24%
    Labour 22%
    Green 8%
    LD 6%

    22% undecided…hmm

  30. RAF

    Yes – No barren nights!

  31. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

  32. @Hireton

    I know of one Scottish Tory (just a voter) who was actually sick the night of the referendum, fearing he’d be trapped in a failed state created by the SNP.

    The referendum was just over 6 months ago and decisive enough to end the matter for a generation. But the SNP have stated that they intend to make people vote over and over and over and over till they get the result they want. And the next vote may be as soon as two years time if the SNP are electorally successful.

    So Scots who want to stay in the UK are facing an existential threat that takes priority over who is temporarily in charge of the UK govt. It’s either defeat the SNP or make plans to leave home and go into exile in England. I think the unionists will vote tactically everywhere they can. For example that LibDem who is facing Salmond is sure to receive tactical votes from those who badly want Salmond to lose.

    I’m not sure SNP people understand unionists, let alone those unionists who are Tories. Judging from the language they use about them, they see them as so many animals with no rights or feelings who should be made extinct.

  33. I suspect it’s a Lab in the lead on YouGiv (if there is a poll tonight). They usually get them out quick if it looks good for the Tories

  34. @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

  35. Andy Shadrack

    Remember that most of the “undecideds” probably won’t actually vote.

  36. Do we really think voters in one nation are going to listen how they should vote from an MP in another nation? This point applies to both Sturgeon and Gove, who have done this AIUI..

  37. From the previous now closed thread:

    Pete B:
    “There is also definite bias in the media, though I’m not sure that it’s exclusively aimed at UKIP. For instance they can be very selective about what they publish, and how they report it. A good example is from the Guardian this morning which looked only at the polls which showed a Labour lead last night and ran a headline about that. Two later polls had Tory leads.”

    With the exception of the Daily Express, there is a total blackout in the press of UKIP positive news.

    And the pro Con/anti UKIP Mail and Sun looked only at the polls which showed a Con lead and UKIP at 12% last night and ran headlines about that.

  38. YouGov GB polls now seven days a week, so there is one tonight / tomorrow morning.

    Latest YouGov poll (09 – 10 Apr):

    LAB – 35% (+1)
    CON – 33% (-2)
    UKIP – 13% (+1)
    LDEM – 8% (-)
    GRN – 5% (+1)

  39. A good weeks polling for Lab.
    Is that Kent poll South Thanet? Its grim for Farage if so.

  40. Well, that nudges Labour back into the lead on the YouGov 5-poll rolling average.

  41. That’s Labour +1, Cons -2. Suspect something MIGHT be going on here, although I don’t like to assume.

    Interesting hypothetical from Survation. If the SNP were running in all constituencies:

    Labour 32%
    Conservatives 30%
    UKIP 15%
    SNP 9%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Greens 4%

  42. Is this the first time YG have ever done a VI poll for publication on a Friday night? Has anyone else, in fact?

  43. I was actually ‘first’ but I looked in the window of the thread (‘no comments’) and felt like someone who has turned up too early for the party. Besides I had nothing to comment then. It was like turning up with no flowers for the host.

    I have a comment now. Polldrums.

  44. Mikey,

    It’s a poll of the entirety of Kent.

  45. OK. Thanks Mr N.

  46. @Candy

    It’s up to the unionist parties to win back the support. Until they do, they will continual challenges, and not just in Scotland. They got themselves in this situation.

  47. @ Bristolian Howard

    Yes, it is poll drum, although UKIP looks a bit high, but probably within MoE.

  48. @candy

    “But the SNP have stated that they intend to make people vote over and over and over and over till they get the result they want. And the next vote may be as soon as two years time if the SNP are electorally successful.”

    Except they haven’t said that.

  49. Another two pointer for Lab from YG. Lab will be encouraged, but Scotland continues to dent their hopes.

    I’m not at all sure their tactics up there are right. The IFS did demolish much on the SNP economic logic it’s true, but there comes a point where people just stop listening if you tell them they are wrong – not matter whether they are or aren’t correct. Facts no longer matter.

    Labour might be better placed to sound positive about some SNP achievements and their ideals, but then move on to sound a note of caution about how realistic they are. ‘Well intentioned but impractical dreamers’ might be easier to sell than ‘economic numpties’.

    It’s the lack of any sense of positivity that riles too many Scots, and closes their minds to the message.

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