Tuesday polls

The bank holiday yesterday means we didn’t get our usual rush of Monday polling – while there’s no real concrete evidence that doing poll fieldwork over a bank holiday produces odd results, polling companies tend to avoid it just in case. This means there was no YouGov poll last night, no Ashcroft poll this week and that the first of Populus’s twice weekly polls came out a day late.

Populus’s poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% (tabs). Again, there is no obvious sign of any impact from the debate – the two point Labour lead is the same as Populus’s previous poll and not out of the ordinary, though the ten point score for the Lib Dems is their highest from Populus since mid-February.

The only other GB poll we are expecting tonight is YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun, which normally appears around ten thirtyish.

Apart from that, the Jewish Chronicle had a new Survation poll of British Jews, suggesting a large majority of British Jews would vote Conservative in an election tomorrow. Voting intentions were CON 69%, LAB 22%, LDEM 2%, UKIP 2%. Tables for that poll are here.


484 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

1 2 3 10
  1. First?

  2. How are they defining Jews? Would Milliband count, for example? A lot have married out of the faith, I wonder if they are included

    [They specifically say they include secular and non-practising Jews. Beyond that, unsure – AW]

  3. Stop thief! – I see JM has taken on my point about “divide and rule” without crediting me.

  4. Scottish crossbreaks showing rise in LDs and drop in Tory VIs. On these figures Scotland returns 3 LDs, 10 Labour, 46 SNP (Weber Shandwick).

    I find it interesting that within the MoE, the Tories in Scotland vary between 0 and 4. Such small variations might be the difference between remaining or ceasing to remain the largest party.

    RAF
    What has JM done now?

  5. So now we have two 10% polls and an average of over 9% in the last 4, could this finally be the start of a campaign boost for the Lib Dems?

  6. @John B

    I said at the weekend that the Coalition’s approach in Scotland (Memogate etc) seemed to be aimed at dividing and ruling over the opponents of the Coalition.

    Until this evening I had not heard a Labour MP use that phrase.

    Conclusion: Senior UK politicians read UKPR!

  7. GARETH.
    I think Labour would be pleased if the Lib Dem vote holds up, as this would limit Tory gains in Lib Dem 2010 seats in formerly Tory areas.

  8. Watching the Scottish Leader debate.

    Thought NS didn’t handle the “will you rule out another referendum” issue particularly well. It’s a fairly predictable question and one I am sure has been thrown her way many times already. Bit surprised she/SNP haven’t worked out a better line on this one.

  9. @ExileinYorks

    It’s a tough question for her. I don’t think there is an easy answer.

  10. Quote of the night from JM:

    “I’m just going to let these two (NS and RD) fight it out.”

    A fairly accurate description of his plan.

  11. Nicola Sturgeon on the deficit was interesting. She is proposing modest spending increases but only by pushing the deficit out by a year or two! At long last Nicola Sturgeon has had to talk about how small a difference the SNP’s “anti-austerity” program would actually make compared to the Labour plan.

  12. RAF

    Agree it a tough one – but for my money a line like “The Indy Ref was asked in a particular context. If something big changes like Tories take the UK out of the EU then it is legitimate to ask the independence question again” is a better than the non-answer she gave.

    Of course that particular line is likely to invite the counter “list the changes that are big enough to revisit the question.”

    It just seems to me that this is one of the questions that the SNP need to be able to handle well. I’m not a Nat so I’m glad it’s their problem not mine.

  13. JM just played his mansion tax on London to fund Scottish spending line again. The only people apart from JM himself that I can imagine like this line would be so firmly in the SNP that he will never bring them back in this election. The only people that think it is a cr*p argument are well – everybody else.

    If this is the best he can do, will EM be the first to celebrate if/when JM loses his seat? Will NS be the first to cry?

  14. On Populus, It does seem that their polling has avoided the large swings seen on YouGov over the last month or so. Not only that but there has been no Con lead IIRC (well I just looked).

    If Populus were excluded from Anthony’s rolling average, I think we would be seeing a Con lead, given that Populus polls twice a week.

    I find it difficult to imagine why Populus should be so laboury, in comparison. They do LTV weighting, so this should make it less laboury than YouGov.

    Any ideas anyone please?

  15. So with Sturgeon stating her aim to get Miliband into 10 Downing St (“I’m offering to help make Ed Miliband prime minister”): how much of an impact do people think this will have on voting intentions?

    Cant imagine it will change much north of the border; the obvious assumption is that it will turn off England based Labour voters who are either pro-union or dont want to feel that England (UK, I know) is governed from Scotland, so a potential loss for Lab, gains for Con/LD.

    Slightly surprised that she wasnt more guarded about comment / her aim or wait til later in the campaign as the Tories will, quite rightly, milk the hell out of it.

    Will this become a turning point?

  16. Populus is not more ” Laboury”

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9103

  17. @statto

    Populus changed their methodology weeks after Anthony made that, so it doesn’t apply any more

  18. Since that article though, they havent had one Tory lead and (I think) only two ties….not sure how that compares to the average

  19. Poor Willie Rennie.

    Even Bernard has forgotten he has to speak after Ruth Davidson!

  20. Scottish Leader Debate – no big winners, no big losers

    Impact on Scottish VI – negligible
    Impact on E&W VI – “what debate?”

  21. Here is a more recent house effects calculation made since the Populus methodology change

    http://may2015.com/featured/how-much-do-pollsters-differ/

    Cons -1.6
    Lab – .4
    UKIP + 1

    Compared to other pollsters.

    My take – their party id weighting hides real movements in the polls – that is why they are less volatile, but the fact that they had to change their party id weighting in Feb to correct for understating UKIP and SNP means that methodology doesn’t really work well, and they miss real changes. They changed their party id weightings in Feb when UKIP was at its peak, now they are weighting them too high, as we can see UKIP is dropping with all other firms, but not them.

    And the inverse of too high UKIP is too low Cons.

  22. @AdamB

    I think Nicola’s vote for Ed plan wasn’t really a surprise to anyone.

    No point pretending you’re going to form a government with <59 MPs.

    I did think Jim was strongest when he was doing his "No point voting SNP to get Labour government, just vote Lab in first place" line.

    More convincing than trying to pretend SNP will support Conservatives.

    I guess in the end for centre left voters it will come down to which of Jim / Nicola do you believe will get the best policies for Scotland out of Ed? Fraternal persuasion or Agitating Outsider?

  23. What a day it’s been for Ed Miliband! He’s had Tony Blair and Nicola Sturgeon giving him their full support. ;-)

  24. @omnishambles, labours populous score is averaging similar to other pollsters.

    I think what BristolianHoward means is that populus is less “conservaty”.

  25. Thanks for the explanation and figures Richard

  26. “Apart from that, the Jewish Chronicle had a new Survation poll of British Jews, suggesting a large majority of British Jews would vote Conservative in an election tomorrow. Voting intentions were CON 69%, LAB 22%, LDEM 2%, UKIP 2%”
    _______

    I don’t think the majority of us really care how Jewish folk will vote. For such a small minority of the population they do get a hell of a lot of air time.

  27. @Allan Christie Do they?

  28. Amber,

    “What a day it’s been for Ed Miliband! He’s had Tony Blair and Nicola Sturgeon giving him their full support. ;-)”

    Could be worse… He could have had Jim Murphy’s as well!

    Peter.

  29. NorthumbrianScot

    “I guess in the end for centre left voters it will come down to which of Jim / Nicola do you believe will get the best policies for Scotland out of Ed? Fraternal persuasion or Agitating Outsider?”

    Not looking good for JM – as Marcus Roberts of the Fabian Society writing in today’s Guardian says “… needs to get the SNP lead down from the high teens to high single digits.” and, I paraphrase, JM has pulled all the levers available to him and is just hoping for the best.

  30. All
    Thanks for those helpful explanations. On UKIP, I see the point but they polled well in todays poll and had to be weighted down quite a bit. I just wonder if UKIP has stormed the Populus panel – I noted they had the highest LTV, (just).

  31. I see #MustacheGuy’s son was wearing a Doge / Comic Sans T-Shirt and live tweeting during the debate.

    Obviously trying to create a meme.

  32. 0.435% of the population. Surely important enough to matter in this tight election.

  33. Exileinyorks –

    Dont you think that the is the chance of an impact in E&W if the Tories aggressively publicise the fact that Labour would only get into power if the SNP put them there, and therefore that a party which wants to split the UK up will peversely be (partly) running the UK? I’d be amazed if this isnt on bilboards etc in the days to come

    Adam

  34. Any snap polls from the debate tonight?

  35. Could be worse… He could have had Jim Murphy’s as well!

    Nice 1 – LOL!

  36. @statto

    Yes probably. Also thanks for link @richard

  37. @Allan Christie

    “I don’t think the majority of us really care how Jewish folk will vote”

    Every vote and every voter counts. And you are commenting on a polling site so you should back that statement up with some statistics.

  38. STANVAX
    @Allan Christie Do they?
    ______

    Yes they do. More Christians have died at the hands of fanatics in the UK than the amount of Jewish people killed in the Paris shootings yet just after that we had armed police outside Jewish Schools in the UK and other Jewish affiliated places yet I don’t remember ever seeing armed police outside Christian places of worship after UK Christians have been targeted.

    It’s only my opinion.

  39. AdamB

    They have.

    What on earth did you think those Salmond/Sturgeon pictures with Ed in their pockets was all about?

    Davidson/Rennie were repeating the same soundbite used south of the border.

    If you mean “Will they ramp it up even further?” I have no idea – nor whether it will influence Con/Other votes in relevant English marginals.

  40. I certainly care how Jews vote. And I very strongly resent the implication that Jews get too much airtime. Would you say that about blacks, Indians or the Chinese? Please do not use casual anti-Semitism. Perhaps you didn’t mean anything by it, but think before you print in future.

  41. GARY GATTER
    @Allan Christie
    “I don’t think the majority of us really care how Jewish folk will vote”
    Every vote and every voter counts. And you are commenting on a polling site so you should back that statement up with some statistics.
    _______

    I’m not stating fact but my opinion. There is a difference.

  42. Election Forecast are predicting con +16 seats compared to lab but 24hrs ago they were saying con +6 seats. How come? nothing’s changed in the polls.

  43. @ Allan Christie,

    That’s because no one has targeted churches. In a majority Christian country things like subway attacks kill more Christians, but guarding churches doesn’t do anything to solve that problem.

    Also you seem to be making a (wrong) argument that Jews have too much police protection. What does that have to do with “airtime”, or for that matter polls?

  44. Murphy bounce? ;)

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

  45. Daibach

    Well it can’t be Populus can it?

  46. @Allan Christie

    “I’m not stating fact but my opinion. There is a difference”

    Clearly

  47. Hear Hear, Mr. Marder.
    The poll was even in a Jewish newspaper.
    The comment really was uncalled for.

  48. @Allan Christie

    Who cares?

    Well I was interested to see the poll for one. As for your other points as this is a site for commenting on polls I don’t want to argue the point. However suffice it to say I do not agree with your view on this at all.

1 2 3 10