Tuesday polls

The bank holiday yesterday means we didn’t get our usual rush of Monday polling – while there’s no real concrete evidence that doing poll fieldwork over a bank holiday produces odd results, polling companies tend to avoid it just in case. This means there was no YouGov poll last night, no Ashcroft poll this week and that the first of Populus’s twice weekly polls came out a day late.

Populus’s poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% (tabs). Again, there is no obvious sign of any impact from the debate – the two point Labour lead is the same as Populus’s previous poll and not out of the ordinary, though the ten point score for the Lib Dems is their highest from Populus since mid-February.

The only other GB poll we are expecting tonight is YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun, which normally appears around ten thirtyish.

Apart from that, the Jewish Chronicle had a new Survation poll of British Jews, suggesting a large majority of British Jews would vote Conservative in an election tomorrow. Voting intentions were CON 69%, LAB 22%, LDEM 2%, UKIP 2%. Tables for that poll are here.


484 Responses to “Tuesday polls”

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  1. @laszlo

    I see what you’re saying.

    @james

    Thanks

  2. @Roger Mexico

    One thing I noticed when comparing the Nowcast to Ashcroft was that UKIP was a lot higher in the nowcast, and out of the range when compared to Ashcroft in most places. As a result the Cons/Lab figures were close to the top of the nowcast range.

    Out of range
    Stockton South – UKIP 13-23. Ashcroft UKIP 9
    Pudsey – UKIP 11-19. Ashcroft UKIP 8
    Pendle – UKIP 13-23. Ashcroft UKIP 10
    Morecombe – UKIP 13-23. Ashcroft UKIP 12
    Kingswood – UKIP 17-28. Aschcroft UKIP 15
    Hove – UKIP 9-18. Ashcroft UKIP 5
    Gloucester – UKIP 14-23. Ashcroft UKIP 12
    Blackpool N – UKIP 19-29. Ashcroft UKIP 15

    In range
    Loughborough – UKIP 9-17. Ashcroft UKIP 12
    Harrow east – UKIP 9-18. Ashcroft UKIP 9

  3. On non doms as with other policies labour is in transition from blairism to milibandism.

    Almost as if Ed M is bouncing Ed B towards more radical policies.

    Be interesting to see the scottish take tonight on it all.

  4. Kevin McGuire tweeting (what I’d heard elsewhere)

    Told BBC worried oddball Ukip MEP David Coburn might defame somebody in tonight’s Scotland debate. 1hr delay between recording & broadcast!

    So tonight’s live debate proves Einstein’s Theory of Relativity – time is not fixed, just a phenomenon seen by the observer. ;-)

  5. @bristolianhoward

    I’m not sure I would call Kingswood a ‘bellwether’ anymore. I’m from Bristol and my folks are in Bristol NW- another proclaimed ‘3 way bellwether’ (though really you have to go back in lineage to the old Bristol NE for that nomenclature to be broadly correct).

    Both have had their wards gerrym, er, tinkered with over the years and as a result have become more residually blue (and increasingly purple). Plus they have increasingly been populated with the kind of ‘Reagan Democrat/blue collar Tories’ who have moved into these areas in droves/ exercised their right to buy (as my folks did in 1989). For many of these people- more often than not from Labour voting family backgrounds- the (adopts Bristolian accent) ‘purchasing our own property’ was not only the perceived ‘ticket to middle class respectability’, but also came with an osmotic requirement to vote Tory. Lately these people- as my parents have done- have flirted with UKIP. You will see that most of the change in that Ashcroft Kingswood poll is a 8 point collapse in UKIPs share which is mirrored in an 8 point increase in Conservative. Labour are up 1. In places like Kingswood and Bristol NW the result will depend upon 2 factors largely: how much of their lost vote to UKIP can the Tories recoup; and how much of the left LD 2010 vote can Labour pick up. In seats like Bristol NW and Kingswood the LD vote was always more orange book (economic) libertarian than greenie-yellow civil liberties/ human rights/ ‘isn’t diversity wonderful’ types. They are more likely to stay LD or hop over to Cameron.

    So long-windedly (of course) I’m not in the least bit surprised by the Ashcroft results with which I have a modicum of ‘track knowledge’.

  6. I’m also surprised that people get excited by ‘small swings from government-to-opposition in marginal seats’. That seems rather counterintuitive to me!

    If you check research on this (such as that undertaken by Exeter University- Hodgson and Maloney- between 1955 and 2005: there are others out there) you will find that the most marginal, and the most safest, seats have swings away from the government less than the national swing; and that the government does better than the national swing in marginals it is defending.

  7. @Rob Sheffield

    I’m a bit confused with the Ashcroft seats polled. Most were never really likely Labour gains in any event. How do we extrapolate from such seats Labour’s likely seat gains in England?

    [FWIW, I still have Labour down to take around 40 seats off the Tories in England]

  8. Half of the party leaders in the debate tonight are homosexual. Scotland’s come a long way even in my lifetime.

  9. (And two thirds of those homosexual politicians are right-wing!)

  10. Bill Patrick

    Wash your mouth out!

    You know Anthony abhors discussion of “left wing” and “right wing”.

  11. Sorry, just wanted to ask again:

    -When was the fieldwork for the latest batch of Ashcroft polls. Phone polls usually take some time – particularly CVI ones?

    -were these polls taken when the Cons were ahead in the polls (ie. during the recent YouGov three in a row, or when the Tories hit 37%)?

  12. @RAF

    28 March to 4 April.

  13. @Richard

    Thanks. So the fieldwork covers the first week of the campaign which was a purple patch for the Tories.

  14. Sounds like tonight’s “debate” has been more of a shouty match.

  15. @RAF

    Yes, but I think a key takeaway is this

    “The most notable movement across the board in this round of polling was a move towards the two main parties at the expense of UKIP, something I also found in the Liberal Democrat battleground last week. In this group of ten seats, the UKIP share had fallen significantly – by up to ten points – in nine of the ten seats polled.”

    So we are seeing more of a UKIP squeeze in the marginals than we are in the national polls, and as UKIP tended to come from the 2010 Cons, they are tending to go back to the Cons.

  16. Worth noting that for the last few days the EF data has been updated on BBC website in early evening.

  17. the problem with these ashcroft polls, though offering a good insight are too infrequent to give any cast iron certainty, I am sure come election night there will be a few clangers, probably a good thing, adds to the excitment!

  18. The Ashcroft polls are in truth poor for both major parties – always assuming they are correct. The conservatives really need to lose less than 30 seats to retain hope that C+LD+DUP = majority. On the basis of these polls they are unlikely to achieve this.

    However Labour really need to be gaining 40+ to be emerging as the largest party and in a good position to form a government – and this is looking fairly shaky as well.

    Of course we have four weeks left, but apart from the very partisan does anyone really believe there will be a big shift one way or another?

  19. @Richard

    Good point, although Ukip had a very bad week last week in SVI also. Can we really be sure that the CVI isn’t just mirroring the SVI over the same period?

  20. OLDNAT
    Sounds like tonight’s “debate” has been more of a shouty match.

    Unsurprising if Coburn is there.

    BTW, anyone in Blighty pining for another dose of Scottish electoral politics but unable to receive BBC1 Scotland can watch live on the BBC News Channel or BBC Parliament from 21:00 WEST.

    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05qnt32

  21. The poll in the Jewish Chronicle, if accurate, suggest the Tories should do well in the north west London suburbs of Finchley, Hendon and Harrow East. To a lesser extent in Hampstead & Kilburn, but some comfort.

  22. @ RAF

    I guess we can’t be sure, but the fact that Ashcroft found the same thing in the LD seats done a week earlier, and that we can see in the by election polls that the closer you get to the election, the more the top 2 parties squeeze all the others, it does seem to make sense that this would be happening.

  23. PS re BBC Scottish debate.

    Obviously the BBC must regard as potentially too upsetting to be broadcast or streamed to Johnny foreigner, so you may need a VPN if outwith the UK.

  24. Rob S
    (Old familiar abb. used by me)

    We agree then on the demographics. Kingswood is mainly jumped up working class. It could not be otherwise because there is so little middle class housing that would attract, er, the proper middle class.
    However –

    UKIP is polled there on 15%. That’s 12% above 2010 so I don’t quite see a squeeze yet. LD polls 5%, that’s not just squeezed, that’s strangled (down 12 from 2010). Green offer a couple of% potentially.

    Labour needs all these Ashcroft seats to be able to call the tune on May 8th (IMO).

  25. Oldnat,

    Are we going to have a debate about whether David Coburn is right-wing?

  26. Or maybe someone will object to the suggestion that Patrick Harvie isn’t…

  27. @BZ

    Not at home, but you can certainly get BBC Scotland in the UK (Sky Channel 951).

  28. @BZ

    I meant in rUK. Doh!

  29. Whats everyone wearing ?

  30. 07052015,

    T-shirt and trackies. Not sure why you ask…

  31. RAF
    Not at home, but you can certainly get BBC Scotland in the UK

    Yes, that how I usually watch, but can’t where I am now. UK IPTV users should also be able to watch BBC1 Scotland via FilmOn and similar apps.

  32. y-fronts, bobble hat, slippers

  33. @BZ

    Ah yes. I forgot you weren’t in Alba.

  34. New thread.

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