The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here, with topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. As with the Opinium and Survation polls, there is no obvious sign of any change in the Labour -v- Conservative lead, though it’s first time YouGov have shown the Lib Dems getting into double figures since last Summer. As ever, only one poll, so don’t write up the Lib Dem resurrection yet, just keep an eye on it.

Unlike the Survation and Opinium polls there is only modest change in leadership ratings in the YouGov poll. David Cameron’s net doing well/badly figure is on plus 1 (up 3), Miliband’s minus 26 (up 3), Clegg’s minus 33 (up 7). David Cameron’s twelve point lead as best Prime Minister is unchanged from a week ago. Miliband retains a small lead on honesty and being genuine, Farage overtakes Miliband on being seen as in touch with ordinary people.

On immigration and HIV – perhaps the one specific issue from the debate that stood out – 50% of people would support the idea of banning immigrants to Britain from NHS treatment, 34% of people are opposed. Asked specifically about Nigel Farage’s comments on HIV, 37% said he was scaremongering, 52% said it was a serious issue he was right to raise.

The other thing I flagged up as a possible impact from the debates was whether Nicola Sturgeon’s positive reception might blunt Tory attacks on the threat of an SNP/Labour deal. To some extent they have, though overall SNP influence is still seen negatively. Last month 63% of people thought it would be a bad thing if the SNP held the balance of power in a hung Parliament, that’s now dropped to 58%. In March 64% thought it would be a bad thing if the SNP were part of a coalition government, that’s now dropped to 56%.

In the Sunday Times there was also a new Scottish poll from Panelbase. Their topline figures with changes from their last Scottish poll in January were CON 14%(nc), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 4%(+1), SNP 45%(+4), UKIP 4%(-3). The poll shows the SNP lead growing, though the last Panelbase showed a strangely small lead – possibly due to unusual question order (there was a question about falling oil prices before voting intention) – so this probably more a case of Panelbase coming into line with the sort of big SNP lead other companies have already been showing. Tabs are here.

The Mail on Sunday also reported a poll of Thanet South, commission by UKIP donor Aaron Banks and apparently leaked to the paper. More on that later on…

UPDATE: Slight error in the YouGov tables for Nick Clegg’s scores from last week. His ratings are, in fact, up 7.


64 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 33, LD 10, UKIP 13, GRN 4”

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  1. The worst part of the Mail’s coverage for me is the Liberal Democrat quality of poll reporting graphic, which shows a line going from the European elections in 2014 to now to demonstrate the surge in Tory support and collapse for UKIP since then.

    By that logic, in Hallam we could run a graphic showing Labour getting 16% in the 2010 GE, with a line zooming up to 70% in the PCC by-election – it wouldn’t technically be wrong, but it would be worthless.

  2. UPDATE ON THANET POLL

    Tables:
    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/South_Thanet_Constituency-Poll_Tables_March2015.pdf

    ComRes statement:
    http://www.comres.co.uk/comres-statement-on-south-thanet-poll/

    Allow me to draw your attention to this part:

    “UKIP were reported to have said that the poll’s headline figures understated support for Nigel Farage ‘because it included people who were not likely to vote and who tended to lean towards the traditional parties’. The tables prove that both assertions are plainly wrong.”

    “The names of all the candidates known at the time were used in the wording of the voting intention question.”

  3. @Mikey

    Well…that is true but only to a degree, as the Tory candidate used to be a senior Ukip figure.

  4. Poor old Lazslo, running round in circles. That’s the problem with ‘jet leg’.

    Now, if he was suffering from ‘jet legs’, that would be an entirely different thing. No more exhausting circles…….

  5. @ Alec

    Thanks

    Jet lag

  6. Gary, another to add to your list of latest forecasts – (my) UK-Elect forecast: Lab 276 Con 274 SNP 47 LD 28 UKIP 2 (details for every constituency on my website)

  7. LASZLO
    I do think that all nationalism is wrong – because that emotional feeling that is in the bottom of nationalism and abused through politics, I call patriotism.

    Patriotism is probably an even more divisive word in English English than nationalism so I’ll try not to use either word again in this post.

    Switzerland have a system of pooled sovereignty which starts with the commune. That entity can and does choose which canton it belongs to, or join with like-minded communes to form a new canton [as Jura was created in 1979].

    There is no requirement for cantons to be geographically contiguous, and many are not including Geneva and Vaud. They are sovereign and could choose to declare independence or to join some other country if they wish.

    But they don’t because the confederal part of governance is perceived and more importantly behaves as a service to provide the “links between communities that create interdependence to the degree that require common co-ordination mechanisms you query.

    It strikes me that if Scotland wants to be a member of the European Union in its own right that is hardly very different to Jura’s desire to have direct confederal representation, and nothing to do with the N or P words in the sense you deplore.

  8. TIMBICK

    Another one to add to YOUR forecast: SNP 30 seats max.(definitely not 47)
    Regards

  9. @TimBick

    Thanks for the information, I have added to the other forecasts, they can be viewed here as a pdf:

    https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=698f47ea25b48a7a!424538&authkey=!APRluvUO7bu8sBQ&ithint=file%2cpdf

  10. THE OTHER HOWARD

    I think things are looking very positive for the Tories
    ======

    In what sense?… they haven’t had a poll lead showing an overall victory for several years, and now despite a collapse of the Labour vote in Scotland are still neck and neck.

  11. ‘What percentage of UK citizens would be sons and daughters of immigrants or have immigrant grandparents?’

    According to OECD figures only Mexico has more of it’s people living overeseas than the UK – migration is a two way street.

    Secondly in Australia one half of the population is either born overseas or has one parent (at least) born overseas….

  12. Having some problems with Comres methodology.

    The turnout in South Thanet was 65.3% in 2010.

    Table 3 5-10 likely to vote finds as follows:

    Farage 28%
    Conservative 23%
    Labour 23%
    LD 3%
    Green 3%
    Other 2%
    Refuse 3%
    Don’t Know 15%

    Remembering Opinium “would definitely vote” in their latest poll:

    Conservative 84%
    UKIP 83%
    Labour 82%
    Green 74%
    LD 60%

    Somehow Comres using a different methodology arrives at Table 6:

    Conservative 31%
    UKIP 30%
    Labour 29%
    LD 5%
    Green 3%
    Other 2%

    My first question to Comres would be at what level of turnout are you setting your results?

    65.3%?

    How high above that?

    How are you reassigning refused and don’t know?

    It seemes to me that Comres are assigning greater value to both Labour and Conservative voters turning out, than to UKIP voters.

    This would seem to me to fly in the face of logical reality, in that the UKIP candidate in this constituency is their very popular leader among UKIP supporters.

    So while not being either a UKIP supporter or a fan of UKIP policy, I share UKIP’s concern about Comres’s methodology.

    They, to my mind need to explain the difference between Table 3 and Table 6.

    The difference for each party is:

    Conservative +8
    Labour +5
    UKIP +2
    LD +2

    I agree with UKIP that this pollster appears to favour the traditional three parties.

    Someone is going to end up with a lot of egg on their face on May 8th.

  13. Question: have any other political leaders backed Sturgeon’s call for a public enquiry into the leaked memo:

    https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2015/04/04/sturgeon-memo-bennett-and-harvie-respond/

    Or are all the “boys” sticking together on this one?

    Do you think any of the pollsters will be asking about the leaked memo in their questions?

  14. A leak inquiry is already underway so there is no need for any other party to back Sturgeon on her demand for one.

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