Last week Opinium’s Observer poll was conducted prior to the Paxman interview, so I wasn’t sure whether the poll from them tonight would be “post-debate” or not. In the event it is – conducted on Friday and late on Thursday night.

As with Survation’s poll yesterday there is no sign of any significant post-debate shift in voting intention, with topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 14%(+1), GRN 7%(nc). Full tabs are here.

Asked who won they think won the debate 20% of people who claimed they saw at least some of it said Nicola Sturgeon won, followed by Cameron on 17% and Miliband on 15%. Leader ratings show some movement, but not quite as dramatic as those in Survation’s poll (that may be a result of question wording – Opinium ask a general question about how the leaders are doing, Survation ask specifically about how they’ve been doing in the last month). David Cameron’s rating here is unchanged on plus 1, Miliband is up six points on minus 15, Nick Clegg is up ten points on minus 30, Nigel Farage is up eleven on minus 13.


351 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 33, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 7”

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  1. Late comment on the NS memo. People seem to be assuming it’s either a civil servant or a politician. Much more likely a SPAD – feel themselves not bound by CS rules – see confidential stuff – politically motivated – often mistakenly described as CSs by those not in the know (to the annoyance of CS)

    Also a comment on ‘bookies are always right’ view – it’s not true check their record. Also why would it be – they’re recording different information it’s a kind of wisdom index but for a different purpose.

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