We have three new polls so far today. TNS have put out a new GB poll, which has topline figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(-1), GRN 5%(+1) – clearly no significant change since their previous poll (tabs are here).

ComRes have a new poll of the 40 Labour held constituencies in Scotland (that is excluding Falkirk, where Eric Joyce sat out his term as an independent). In 2010 the share of vote in these seats was CON 14%, LAB 51%, SNP 19%, LDEM 14%. The new ComRes poll found support standing at CON 13%(-1), LAB 37%(-14), SNP 43%(+24), LDEM 2%(-12). The seven point SNP lead represents a swing of 19 points from Lab to SNP, the equivalent of a sixteen point SNP lead in a national Scottish poll (tabs are here).

Finally YouGov have a new London poll for the Evening Standard, which has topline figures of CON 34%(+2), LAB 45%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 8%(-2), GRN 4%(-1) – changes are from YouGov’s previous London poll a month ago. The eleven point Labour lead represents a swing of 4.5 points from Con to Lab since the general election, the equivalent of a two point Labour lead in a national GB poll (tabs are here).


444 Responses to “ComRes in Scotland, YouGov in London and latest TNS poll”

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  1. If ever you want a compelling reason for not taking Electoral Calculus projections seriously just take a look at their current projections for Sheffield Hallam:

    LibDem – 37.6%; Labour – 20.1% ;Tories – 19.9%; Ukip – 13.3%; Green’s – 8.8% and Others – 0.4%

    This compares with Ashcroft CVI figures of:

    LibDems – 34%; Labour – 36% ;Tories – 26%; Ukip – 7%; Green’s – 8% and Others – 1%

    As so often happens, EC is way off course despite the fact that there was evidence from Last September’s Ashcroft poll that the LibDems and Labour were neck and neck.

    EC doesnt’s use constituency polling information and so isn’t told about such developments.

    It is this kind of evidence that makes me exasperated when UKPR folk blithely post comments based on EC projections. It simply isn’t worth spending the time typing in such posts.

  2. CB11
    “The 100 Business Leaders letter in the Telegraph today…………has no capacity to shock and surprise”

    Indeed, possibly quite the opposite. I tried a Freudian test on my fellow drinkers in the pub this lunchtime which i invite others to try. I required a single word immediate response to the following items. I set out below the universal answers in my random sample:

    Company CEOs: Fat cats!
    Tax: Avoidance!
    Profits: Bl–dy great Bonuses!

    Actually I made that up for April Fools’ Day. Where’s your cracker, BTW?

  3. @Assiduosity

    I don’t want to re-run the independence campaign but suffice to say that Blair McDougall the head of the No campaign says No would not have won without these negative stories.

    So there is a belief amongst political strategists that this kind of negative story works. I know we on this board we can take a more objective view but the story re-enforces the ‘Don’t let Labour risk the recovery’ theme from the Tories. So a Con leaning voter may well be a bit worried that Labour would ‘wreck’ the economy now having that unease backed up by business leaders will be more certain in their choice of Con.

  4. Though campaigning is important in its way I often think all the political parties remind me of market stall traders in my childhood who were adrift the the world of supermarkets and TV Advertising. It seems so visually and verbally easy to discount what political parties sell in this world where consumers are deeply inured to the prodding of advertisers.

    Obviously, its capacity to reinforce the certainties of the certain is motivational but probably not measurable. For example a letter to the Daily Telegraph hardly reaches out to the uncommitted voter. Perhaps in that sense buying an advert in the FT was a better use of money.

    I’m not as well placed or well informed to run a commentary on polls or politics as many on here but I note that as the % of the major parties edge back up into the middle thirties – much of the ground lost in the aftermath of last year’s Local & Euro election is being recovered.

    The same is not true in Scotland – but in Scotland the Labour Party failed to take the loss in 2011 as seriously as it should have done. That complacency has left it outflanked to the left by the SNP. Moreover, whilst Labour struggles in the cold waters of Scotland’s new politics the LibDem are drowning – and their collapse both in votes (and seats) is another aspect of Labour’s problem.

    That said I remain of the opinion that should the opinion polls be broadly right that the parliamentary dice are somewhat loaded in Labour’s favour unless the Conservatives get above 305 seats.

    I also do not see it will be a straightforward matter for any LibDem leader to deliver the votes of the parliamentary party to Mr Cameron – despite Mr Clegg’s position as deputy PM. And if LibDems have just lost a shed load of seats to the Conservatives I cannot see those party members happily voting either for a coalition or a supply and confidence arrangement with the Conservative party. With the SNP, Plaid, SDLP and any Green MP’s voting down a Conservative minority government – Mr Cameron has many fewer options than Mr Miliband.

    All of that may be changed by the course of the campaign and the Conservatives may win outright or get so near to 326 it will not matter – but of all the likely outcomes for the present that seems to be one on the unlikely end of the spectrum.

  5. What on earth has happened to Labour in Cambridge?

  6. @ MrNameless

    Is there any research or anecdotal evidence (dangerous I know) of how Tories in Hallam feel about offering a tactical vote to Nick Clegg to keep Lab out? On the Ashcroft polling this ought to be included but perhaps you won’t get a feel for the waverers.

    Seems to me the most likely Tory voters to rage against Clegg would be the right wing elements and they are most likely to have gone to UKIP anyway. Any sign the remaining Tory voters are happier with Clegg?

  7. BristolianHoward

    Thanks.

    It is not just a case of a hugely diminished LD seat count reducing the prospect of a Cameron-led government. Anything under 20-25 means a demoralised LD party, probably internal turmoil and a leadership change, with Farron the likeliest successor. Little chance of them getting into bed with the Blues.

    The Tories NEED a Lib Dem revival on quite a scale, or an outright victory, neither of which appear very likely.

    I expect a lot of ‘I agree with Nick’ from DC. The Tories would be mad to attack the Lib Dems.

  8. @Roger Mexico

    Agreed. With the exception of North Devon, which is quite a way down the LibDem defence list at 28th most vulnerable, if they are holding on and even improving their position in seats like St Austell (6th most vulnerable on paper) North Cornwall (16th) and Torbay (25th) against the Conservatives, the LibDems will be to some extent relieved.

    Cambridge should always have been better territory even against a resurgent third placed Labour who were 15% behind in 2010.

    Things look much less encouraging for Nick Clegg. This kind of poll could give Labour activists another lift in spirits. There’s also not much sign of Conservatives switching to his support . They were at 24% in 2010, 22% in this poll, which could easily be loss to UKIP who have gained 5% since the last GE.

    The tastelessly named ‘de-capitation strategy’ might be successful.

  9. Well, well. Mr. Nameless, gettin’ it done.

  10. @assiduosity

    ” There’s also not much sign of Conservatives switching to his support .”

    There is a clear sign in the CVI question.

    SVI: Tories = 22%
    CVI: Tories = 16%
    =-6

    SVI: Lib Dems = 26%
    CVI: Lib Dems = 34%
    =+8

    Clegg receives recognition boost AND big help from Tories

  11. @Omnishambles

    ‘Looks like a sizeable fraction of Tories are rallying behind Clegg in Sheffield Hallam’

    Where do you find this in the figures? I may be missing something, but in 2010 weren’t the Conservatives on 24%, whereas in this poll they are on 22%?

    A shift down of 2% could easily be MoE or more likely part of the 5% uplift to the UKIP vote as much as any tactical support for Clegg.

  12. I notice from the fieldwork dates, that both the Cambridge polls were conducted during vacation periods (long vac, and the post-Lent term vac). Would they include the transient student population?

    With Sheffield Hallam, the first polls was taken during the autumn semester, but the latest one was during the Easter break in the spring semester.

  13. @Omni

    ‘Clegg receives recognition boost AND big help from Tories’

    Thanks for enlightening me!

    Have caught up now and looked properly at the CVI figures – Conservatives down to 16% from 2010, so yes, they are very much helping out Clegg in Hallam.

    I suppose the questions remain how many more Conservatives will come to his aid and can Labour squeeze the Greens or former LibDems amongst the undecideds to form an ‘anything but Clegg’ bloc.

    Given that Clegg’s significantly increased majority seems founded on student voter volatility I suppose anything is possibility.

  14. HAWTHORN

    To clarify, that is for Sheffield Uni, not Sheffield Hallam Uni.

  15. Small sample, but it is interesting that the Green squeeze in Sheffield Hallam goes more to LD than to Labour.

    11% of Green SVI goes to LD in CVI
    6% of Green SVI goes to Labour in CVI

    Same in Cambridge.

    26% of Green SVI goes to LD in CVI
    12% of Green SVI goes to Labour in CVI

    Labour have seemed quite keen to lead the effort to stop the Green surge, I wonder if this reflects a bit of a backlash against that?

  16. The good Lord could have had the courtesy to do B&OS as well. Oh well, I guess when I’m a multi-millionaire I can poll the constituencies I want to.

  17. @Crossbat great point re: business owners / employees

  18. Interesting who the Ukip collapse since the previous round of polling is and isn’t benefiting, too. Not at all clear it’s consistently going to the Tories.

    Check out St. Ives:

    Last round CVI:

    Con: 31
    LD: 32
    Lab: 11
    Ukip: 18
    Green: 6

    Current round SVI:

    Con: 36
    LD: 25
    Lab: 14
    Ukip: 15
    Green: 8

    Current round CVI:

    Con: 33
    LD: 36
    Lab: 10
    Ukip: 11
    Green: 7

    So in both comparisons (September 2014 to now, SVI to CVI), we’ve got a clear Ukip squeeze that appears to be going mostly to the Lib Dems.

  19. Labour, should have Cambridge in the bag.

  20. I’d really like to read Mr Nameless’s elaboration on the civ. he seems to be able to flag his own bias, the bias in the polls in a way that enables outsiders to engage.

    Btw, students will be sitting exams (or about to start) by the time of the elections.

  21. James

    Yes that Camborne and Redruth poll struck me as well. I’m not sure why UKIP have collapsed so dramatically, they actually led in a Survation poll in November after the previous candidate’s conviction. The sitting Conservative MP has been emphasising his similarity to UKIP, so that may have had an effect.

  22. Surely this sort of practice is out of bounds?

    https://twitter.com/EK_SNP/status/583215708433223680

  23. I really can’t offer anything the poll doesn’t already show I’m afraid! Huge amount of squeezing going on on all sides.

  24. @spearmint

    That’s kind of bizarre, can you be sure the VI is flowing straight from LD to UKIP? It may flowing around a bit.

    When Lord A questions UKIP voters in these seats, they tell him:

    – their preferred outcome is a Conservative majority (by a long way)
    – they are least likely to rule out voting for the Tories
    Source:
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Competitive-Lib-Dem-seats-March-2015ABXZ.pdf

    Isn’t it more likely that some moderate Tories are switching to the Lib Dems, and UKIP voters are switching to the Tories at the same time? The UKIP voters who came *from* the Lib Dems would have been anti-establishment protest party Lib Dems, to whom the Lib Dems no longer appeal for obvious reasons.

  25. Yeah, I’ve confirmed from the tables now:

    St. Ives Ukip CVI squeeze:

    Con: 4%
    LD: 16%

    And Andrew George is s seriously leftwing Lib Dem. They’re a complicated bunch, those Kippers.

  26. 5/10
    Mr Nameless is just ANNOYING

  27. @spearmint

    “And Andrew George is s seriously leftwing Lib Dem”

    You’re right… I guess that rules out my moderate Tories -> Lib Dems suggestion

  28. @Spearmint

    Some UKIPper’s blame the Tory + media bias for their demise, so they react by voting ABT?

    Some Green voters blame Labour for smear campaign, so they react by voting ABL?

  29. Mr. Nameless’s patch might be a better test, as Lab/Yellow Tory/Tory fight:

    Ukip squeeze, SVI to CVI:

    Con: 3%
    Lab: 3%
    LD: 7%

    I guess in some sense we could call that 10 Con: 3 Lab, but at the end of the day they’re breaking for Clegg who is the poster boy for they’re-all-the-same.

  30. Interesting to compare Ashcroft’s poll to the current May2015 Predicts estimates.

    3 seats which May2015 has going to Cons from LibDem are North Cornwall, St Ives and Torbay. Ashcroft has them as LD hold, albeit by a small margin and relying on CVI.

    The 2 LD/Lab seats in Ashcroft’s poll, Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam, are both current predicted LD holds in May2015.

  31. Talking of tactical voting, it doesn’t look like either SLAB or the SNP are having any significant success in squeezing the Scottish Tory vote. Being down 1% in SLAB-held seats is rather good news for the Scottish Tories, and certainly looks more optimistic for them overall than the Ashcroft polls. Of course, in most of these seats, they’re just fighting for their deposits, but taken as an indicator it’s rather good for them.

    I would be surprised to see the Tories go down much in Scotland in May. I can see them losing a few percentage points to UKIP (SUKIP?) but both the SNP and SLAB are moving away from the kind of centrist platforms that had so much success across the board in Scotland.

  32. Incidentally, Mr. N, your mission is to find the 9 Labour voters who have switched to Clegg in CVI in this poll and whack them over the head with a poster until they change their minds. ;)

  33. @ Omnishambles,

    Andrew George has 9% of the Tory vote on CVI too, so your moderate Tory hypothesis isn’t wrong. It’s just it’s not compensating for a Ukip rush into the Tory camp.

  34. Perhaps this is simply the power of the popular local MP. Andrew George is well-liked isn’t he? Kind of like how Carswell could run for the British Communist party and still win huge majorities in Clacton.

  35. KeithP
    “I’m trying to remember the last election where 100 of this or that sort of person publishes an open letter….. I don’t think this sort of appeal to authority type of argument holds that much sway ……..”.

    A fair point but don’t ignore winning that the GE is partly about the Party which dominates the headlines i.e. it is now the 1st news story. Also the apparent inconsistency by Labour who on Monday praised Big Business but today appear to be criticizing same.

  36. @ Spearmint

    I don’t know St Ives constituency (apart from postcards) but would it be possible that a large proportion of the LD votes use to be protest votes, or just inertia, so they switched to UKIP, but now they feel that “maybe we are not so protest voters” or that being inert is less stressful than going along with UKIP.

  37. I got my Saints mixed up above. It’s St Ives (their 10th most vulnerable seat) that the LibDems hold on to in the latest Ashcroft polling rather than St Austell (6th) which they lose.

    The theme that they are more successful in defending in the South West and against Conservatives seems to hold true.

    Notable that the picture against Labour is more mixed.

    As others have noted the Cambridge result is quite something: a 5% Labour lead to a 9% LibDem between SVI and CVI.

    Note that the LibDem line on Sheffield Hallam is that including candidates’ names would produce a different result.

  38. Assiduosity,

    Naming the candidates may well change the result but I wouldn’t have thought that’d be the Lib Dem line!

  39. @OMNISHAMBLES

    ” Kind of like how Carswell could run for the British Communist party and still win huge majorities in Clacton.”

    He’s not that popular!

  40. @ Statgeek
    “Surely this sort of practice is out of bounds?”

    No idea because the tweet you linked to doesn’t exist.

  41. ASSIDUOSITY

    These are all seats that I had previously in the “maybe” category.

    I have changed my view on North Devon and St Austell to be being likely Tory gains.

    I now reckon 10 likely gains for the Tories and 7 for Labour.

  42. Is there any significance in Cameron choosing Chippenham (nailed-on Tory gain from Lib Dem) for his first big set-piece, whereas Miliband has chosen Colne Valley (currently a toss-up).

    It looks as though the Tories will be fighting a more defensive campaign than Labour on that evidence.

  43. @ Omnishambles and Laszlo,

    Both explanations seem very plausible. Andrew George has been anti-establishment for years, before it was cool. (Although I suppose being anti-establishment was always cool in Cornwall.)

    @ Assiduosity,

    the LibDem line on Sheffield Hallam is that including candidates’ names would produce a different result.

    Lab 40% LD 25%? :p

  44. I live in the St Ives constituency, my family is equally split between Con & LD, it’s going to be a very close contest. Andrew George is well liked but so is Derek Thomas who is very much a local candidate.

  45. Thanks @Couper2802

    Not all of us were here for the referendum, so good to get a take on how issues like the intervention of big business played out in such a recent and closely fought poll.

    It is my suspicion too that business leaders continue to set ‘the mood music’ in a way that is sometimes underestimated by those who disagree with their sentiments.

    This might be a lesson that those pro-Labour who are sanguine about today’s letter and it’s nil effect on VI should bear in mind. No immediate outcome but a subtle longer term framing of the campaign in a way which favours the Conservatives.

  46. @ Norbold

    @OMNISHAMBLES
    ” Kind of like how Carswell could run for the British Communist party and still win huge majorities in Clacton.”
    He’s not that popular!

    And hopefully not so forgetful about the CPUK (decidé 1991)

  47. @Spearmint

    Indeed.

    Perhaps we can expect some rumours of ‘private polling’ to emerge quite soon to bolster yellow morale.

  48. casclc

    “Interesting to compare Ashcroft’s poll to the current May2015 Predicts estimates”

    But don’t forget that Ashcroft polls were done 12-26 March & do not reflect recent polling movements.

  49. As far as Lib Dem internal party balance is concerned, going down the LD survivors’ list I make it:

    2 SLF holds, 2 ??? (anyone know anything about Adrian Sanders and Dan Rogerson?)

    2 Orange Book losses, 1 SLF loss

  50. I meant to write CPGB not CPUK

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