We have three new polls so far today. TNS have put out a new GB poll, which has topline figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(-1), GRN 5%(+1) – clearly no significant change since their previous poll (tabs are here).

ComRes have a new poll of the 40 Labour held constituencies in Scotland (that is excluding Falkirk, where Eric Joyce sat out his term as an independent). In 2010 the share of vote in these seats was CON 14%, LAB 51%, SNP 19%, LDEM 14%. The new ComRes poll found support standing at CON 13%(-1), LAB 37%(-14), SNP 43%(+24), LDEM 2%(-12). The seven point SNP lead represents a swing of 19 points from Lab to SNP, the equivalent of a sixteen point SNP lead in a national Scottish poll (tabs are here).

Finally YouGov have a new London poll for the Evening Standard, which has topline figures of CON 34%(+2), LAB 45%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 8%(-2), GRN 4%(-1) – changes are from YouGov’s previous London poll a month ago. The eleven point Labour lead represents a swing of 4.5 points from Con to Lab since the general election, the equivalent of a two point Labour lead in a national GB poll (tabs are here).


444 Responses to “ComRes in Scotland, YouGov in London and latest TNS poll”

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  1. Pete B

    Predicted to lead at the election, on their current polls they have a definite labour lead (and weird stuff with the history has been going on with stuff changing retroactively)

  2. News night nightly prediction for those thar care
    CON 282
    LAB 280
    SNP 36
    LIB 28
    Plaid 3
    UKIP 1
    GREEN 1
    If this was bore out I think a lab minority would be the only possibility

  3. Alan
    So you’re saying that EF are predicting Tory to win at the election, but Labour are ahead on current polls? If so, I understand now. Thanks.

  4. @Amber

    I’d be reasonably happy betting that Ian Murray will be the only LiS MP with an increased majority on 2010.

    Maybe Mark Lazarowicz as well at a push.

    Seats where Lib Dems came a strong second (20%+) to Labour in 2010 are probably some of the better hopes for holds for LiS.

    The other options beyond the aforementioned Edinburgh N & S are:
    Dunfermline & West Fife
    Glasgow North
    Aberdeen South

    You’d probably say the 2 Edinburgh seats are best for LiS out of those 5

  5. That should be Newsnight obviously damn auto correct

  6. This cross over thing that academic people are putting into their forecasts seems to not be happening yet. It will all have to be after Easter, now.

  7. OldNat

    Re use of 2010 vote as a weighting factor in Scotland

    Roger (I think) suggested that you can’t use 2011 vote as a weighting basis because the boundaries are different.

    Technically, you could because the postcode is known for each respondent to ensure they are in the correct constituency

    I never said anything of the sort! As it happens your suggestion wouldn’t work because you need to know how each postcode area voted to be able to calculate exactly. However in this case because so many of the Labour constituencies are contiguous, calculation should be fairly straightforward with most of the differences in boundaries disappearing in a red blur. It’s certainly something that Anthony and others have to do to calculate notional majorities whenever there is a boundary reorganisation and, though it’s not an exact science, it’s not an unknown one.

    Indeed I assume that is what they have done to calculate the targets to weight recalled referendum vote to, although they don’t seem to mention what political weighting they have used.

    My objections to using 2011 vote (or rather 2011 vote only) are based on differential turnout. About 25% more voters turned out in 2010 than 2011 and there is some evidence that this group is not particularly representative of Scotland generally. Of course you can then overcompensate by up-weighting 2011 non-voters too much, it’s not easy to get right..

  8. @PeteB

    Is this about Election forecast? If so, though your contribution was very detailed and expert, I thought that EF had Conservative ahead.

    I sidetracked myself into commenting on their sometimes curious “Current Polls” graph. In contrast with commenters here and other sites they continue to show a small but steady Labour lead. I was suggesting possible reasons for this.

    Their “Sortable table of current vote share for every party in every seat”,also shows a Labour lead (as it would have to – being a reflection of the current polls).

    It is only their (reversion influenced) May 7 projection which puts the Conservatives in the lead.

  9. the newsnight projection is interesting…

    if it comes true, lab + snp+plaid+green= 320…if you throw in the sdlp who are certainly more pro-labour than conservative, you get 323, which means that any grouping around the conservatives doesn’t have a majority.

    I think there is still upside for labour…given the swing in England and Wales that is likely , if the polling is neck and neck.

  10. It seems impossible to understand YG’s Scotland weightings & YG aren’t forthcoming with any reasonably detailed explanation.

  11. James Peel

    What an odd thing for you to say. I think Lab will do well in London but face disappointment in the Midlands.They will have more seats than in 2010 but not enough to finish with more than the Tories. I believe they will end up with somewhere between 15 and 20 seats in Scotland.

    I also feel Con will pick up a number of seats from the LibDems to partially offset losses to Labour. In conclusion Con to finish around 10 seats higher than Lab.

    Just my view and really no need for you to get on your high horse.

    Goodnight!

  12. Surely we can expect an Ashcroft poll tomorrow. It is April Fools Day, after all..

    Showing a 10% Tory lead, probably.

    :-)

  13. Comment from the Scots Tories re: the ComRes Scottish poll, putting the boot into the Lib Dems:

    “This poll confirms even more emphatically that the Lib Dems are finished in Scotland”

    (from the BBC live feed, 21:30)

    Interesting that they chose to focus on that, rather than the SNP or Labour. Perhaps the Tories are hoping that if they can marginalise the Lib Dems, they may be able to pick up some of their rural vote and be more competitive in those seats?

  14. @.Raf

    In a way the LD “Free Speech” nonsense is a core-vote strategy for them. PR and Lords reform would be core vote strategies too, but will they make much of them given the recent defeats?

    I say “nonsense” because it is just that, as you and Omni point out. Who would want a constitution like the USA? The LDs apparently. Sub-machine guns all round!

  15. @Rivers10

    Newsnight nightly prediction..

    I think their calculations come from Chris Hanretty and the ElectionForecast model. To give some added value for the fees that are undoubtedly paid it is possible that he adds in the latest polling data (e.g., tonight’s YouGov poll) before emailing the figures to them. That would explain the discrepancy with the tallies currently to be seen on their website.

  16. Well I appreciate that not all Scottish posters are anti-London (thanks Barney) but anyone visiting this site regularly for the last 3 years would find that there is a disproportionate amount of time spent discussing the minutiae of Scottish politics. This thread is a good example :

    Population of Scotland – 5.3m
    Constituencies in Scotland – 59
    Number of comments on this thread mainly about the latest Scotland poll – most of them

    Population of London – 8.3m
    Constituencies in London – 73
    Number of comments mainly about the latest London poll – zero ?

    Suggests that rather a lot of non Scottish posters have given up

    Didn’t spot many comments on the full Welsh poll yesterday either

    Not sure how you change this but it’s so dull …

    PS Shouldn’t the number of Scottish seats be reduced to be fair to London and its (burgeoning) cosmopolitan population ? Wales should be lowered too.

  17. Roger Mexico

    Apologies if I got the wrong person.

    Though I’m puzzled by your As it happens your suggestion wouldn’t work because you need to know how each postcode area voted to be able to calculate exactly

    The postcode simply allows you to allocate a respondent to the appropriate constituency (whether Holyrood or Westminster).

    Other weighting factors then allow the appropriate weight to that respondent’s answers.

    Weighting by postcode would require a helluva big sample!

    That neither weighting by recalled 2010 or 2011 vote is likely to produce the level of accuracy, that people love to assign to polls, is something we can probably agree on.

    Indeed that was the point I made.

  18. @ Unicorn

    Thanks re your 9.00 PM post.

    I do think that the BES mean of 11 Lib-Dem seats is more realistic if Conservatives rise above 35%.

    Given that UKIP is now a major Party for duration of election period, it will be interesting to see if additional coverage pushes UKIP value up again.

    As I said I want to see if there is any bounce after the two debates on April 2nd and April 16th.

  19. @Welsh Borderer
    You mean that you don’t enjoy the endless discussion of the news that Robbie McHaggis of the Scotland Forever party is favoured to win Jockland Central ahead of Rab C Nesbitt of the S*d the English party?

    I’m saddened and shocked.

  20. We did discuss the London and Welsh polls.

    The Scottish ITV poll generated much discussion because of the unusual way in which the poll was done, which resulted in issues of comparability and interpretation not present in the London and Welsh polls.

  21. Welsh Borderer,

    If you have expertise on London or Wales, it would be great if you could add comment. The site benefits from local expertise and interest.

  22. James

    The snarling of the hyenas on getting the last remnants of the LD corpse in these former LiS seats seems somewhat distasteful.

    There remain a small number of party loyalists who will continue to vote for the party that they have always supported.

    If they haven’t deserted the label in its direst days, why would they respond to the Tories (or Alec on behalf of LiS) entreaties to switch now?

  23. Main reason there are so many comments here about Scottish politics is last year’s referendum. It engaged people in politics like never before, which surely is to be welcomed.

    Polls still showing SNP heading for a landslide victory, I see. Time quickly running out for Labour in Scotland.

  24. @Crossbat

    Not one such polls but eight !

    Tweet from about seven hours ago:

    [email protected] Now head down on the commentary on 8 fascinating marginal seat polls to be released here at noon tomorrow. Commentary as usual at @ConHome

  25. 100 Business leaders have endorsed the Tories (front page of the Telegraph).

    It’s pretty clear now that this is going to be a heavily polarised election. Tories arguing they’ve made a success of the economy. Labour, that the economic benefit to the electorate is negligible.(Aparently people in the UK are 70p better off than in 2010.)

  26. The London Mayoral elections were fascinating. They generated shedloads of comments on every thread about Bo-Jo. It was riveting. I was gutted when it was over & all the London-centric comments stopped.

    Now we have to rely almost solely on the wonderful RAF, who seems to be pretty well informed about London.

  27. @welsh borderer

    There were a few comments exchanged over the London poll… but yeah it didn’t generate much discussion. As is implied above, I think what we need is a London independence referendum to get Londoners fired up about politics and browsing websites like this in greater numbers. Then we can give the Scots a run for their money.

    Anyway. Something notable about that London poll: Lib Dem/UKIP crossover! A prelude to the same in national polls? Stranger things have happened…

  28. “100 Business leaders have endorsed the Tories (front page of the Telegraph).”

    Labour’s response will be interesting.

    Alastair Campbell, in his pomp, would have worked out the average earnings of the 100 and publicised it. He would have said, “we are the party of the many, not the few”. Then the mirror would have splashed a headline and there would be a ding dong battle.

    Today’s labour party will huff and puff and be on the defensive. they don’t seem to have any confidence.

  29. @Amber
    “Now we have to rely almost solely on the wonderful RAF, who seems to be pretty well informed about London.”

    Why thank you, Amber. Other people might say “opinionated”, but who am I to disagree with a lengend of UKPR ? ;)

  30. @Omnishambles

    It appears Independence for London is far off – from the ICM London poll

    “If it ever came to “a referendum on making London an independent city state, separate from the rest of the UK”, only 14% of Londoners would vote to go it alone, while 82% would say no.”

  31. Presumably the Ukip seat in the Newsnight projection is Clacton – but while the Tory farmers are putting up McKinlay (Con) posters in the fields of Thanet and Ukip themselves are talking up Labour, for their own purposes, I think Farage is still favourite here.

  32. The legend of ukpr
    Thats the game!

  33. I am pleased that almost 15% of my fellow Londoners spotted a golden opportunity to take the piss.

  34. Crossbat11

    Surely we can expect an Ashcroft poll tomorrow. It is April Fools Day, after all..

    Indeed he is:

    Ok back to fun!! Write up on 8 marginal seats completed and will release tomorrow Wednesday at noon with quite a commentary

    Of course April Fool-wise, releasing it exactly at noon is a masterpiece of ambiguity.

  35. TOMORROW

    Lord Ashcroft polls of marginals come out at noon.

  36. I am a Londoner but do not have a chauvinistic view of the importance of London to this election. The picture here seems fairly clear in that Labour are likely to surpass the national swing somewhat and probably gain most of their clear targets. There are one or two interesting and symbolic seats but it’s hard to extrapolate from here to the rest of the country because of its divergent demographics. Personally I would like to see less London polling and more polling of the midlands and Yorkshire.

  37. “Comment from the Scots Tories re: the ComRes Scottish poll, putting the boot into the Lib Dems:
    “This poll confirms even more emphatically that the Lib Dems are finished in Scotland”
    (from the BBC live feed, 21:30)
    Interesting that they chose to focus on that, rather than the SNP or Labour. Perhaps the Tories are hoping that if they can marginalise the Lib Dems, they may be able to pick up some of their rural vote and be more competitive in those seats?”

    I think this is shrewd…a lab/snp deal in westminster will surely benefit the non-snp/lab parties, so the tories won’t to kill off the lib dems before they can make a slow come back in scotland. murdo fraser’s idea to rebrand the tories the “unionist party” was a good one.

  38. ” tories won’t to kill off the lib dems before they can make a slow come back in scotland. ”

    want to kill off

  39. “100 Business leaders have endorsed the Tories (front page of the Telegraph).”

    I gather the Pope is a Catholic too.

    :-)

    @Roger M

    “Of course April Fool-wise, releasing it exactly at noon is a masterpiece of ambiguity.”

    The old rascal knows his traditions and custom. Noon is the last time in the day when he can play us for fools before the joke is on him.

    April Fools Day is probably my favourite day of the year, even trumping Boxing Day. Accordingly, I have a little joke to play on all you UKPR regulars tomorrow morning.

    It involves Scotland, TNS/BMRB and Jim Murphy, but all will be revealed tomorrow. It’s a cracker.

    :-)

  40. @James Peel
    ” tories want to kill off the lib dems before they can make a slow come back in scotland. ”

    They could make a fairly rapid comeback in Scotland by endorsing proportional representation.

  41. The interesting thing for me about London is if Labour manages to play the “we will control immigration” card without alienating their BME vote.

    So far they seem to be succeeding as all polls I have seen have them doing even better amongst the BME population than in 2010. They seem to have Diane Abbott and David Lammy condemning the mugs/leaflets one the one hand versus the leadership saying the opposite.

    It sounds to me like it could turn into another Scotland for Labour quite easily, but they seem to be managing to play both sides.

  42. I agree with Amber (No, Anthony I really do!)

    The threads on the London Mayoral election were interesting, and I’m happy just to lurk where politics of no immediate concern to me are concerned, and just learn from others.

    In the same way, I like to read about Welsh, Irish, Californian etc politics and will ask questions, add comments to further my understanding.

    What I find odd are those people who are uninterested in polling which may illuminate (or not!) the composition of the UK Parliament which will legislate for them – just because the polling is of another part of the UK from where they live.

    Still, us political geeks will probably never understand wee parochialists.

  43. For those saying Scotland over represented. Seats were supposed to drop to 57 but O +S and W Isles were understandably preserved so 59 it is. London probably has more people ineligible to vote than anywhere else, eg EU citizens, non- Commonwealth, under 18s. Arguably a multinational Union should be similar to USA where small population States like Wales or North Dakota have equal voice in 2nd chamber with large ones

  44. @richard

    “only 14% of Londoners would vote to go it alone, while 82% would say no.”

    Funnily enough, London as independent city-state makes much more sense than an independent Scotland.

  45. Scottish result was incredibly boring in 2010′ no seats changed hands except by election return to Lab from LD in Dunfermline. Only point of interest was increase in Labour vote from 2005. Presumably Brown was popular here at least.

  46. CB11

    The observant among us will have noted that your post is timed at 12:01 on the morning of April Fool’s Day.

    Your revelation “tomorrow” on April 2nd would be interesting, however, :-)

  47. @Richard

    I suspect that many BME voters in London understand (although do not endorse) the need for Labour to take a firm line on immigration in order to do well in E&W marginals.

    Also, there are more important day to day issues – such as pay, the cost of living (which is genuinely astronomical in London), transport and the NHS.

  48. @RAF

    Well I can only say the polls seem to agree with your analysis. I’ve been looking at every BME cross break for the last 2 months, and it is solidly Labour. (Comres London poll, Ashcroft mega poll, Populus monthly consolidation).

  49. Welsh Borderer

    [T]here is a disproportionate amount of time spent discussing the minutiae of Scottish politics. This thread is a good example

    […]Number of comments mainly about the latest London poll – zero ?

    There was a fair bit of comment about the London poll in the previous thread because it came out earlier in the day whereas the Scottish one wasn’t available till just before Anthony posted. But like the latest Welsh poll there wasn’t really much movement and no difference in which seats would change hands from the last poll. Even Roger Scully is running out of things to say about the way not much has changed. Indeed the most interesting thing about the Welsh polling is how little is altering from 2010, though there may be surprises in the West and/or North in individual seats.

    As someone who commented extensively on both Wales and London polls and linked to both sets of tables, I still have to say that the Scottish one is going to be the most interesting because what matters in the end is what seats change hands. In May it’s possible that a majority of all the seats that do will be in Scotland and a new poll that suggests changes in the outcome there (though on closer inspection it’s not quite as it seems) deserves detailed discussion – especially as it’s a pollster new to Scottish polling and so with unfamiliar methods.

    PS Shouldn’t the number of Scottish seats be reduced to be fair to London and its (burgeoning) cosmopolitan population ? Wales should be lowered too.

    The trouble is that a lot of those London cosmopolitans aren’t entitled to vote – at least for MPs. And constituency size is based on registered Westminster electors not population, no matter how burgeoning.

    Scotland isn’t really over-represented if you allow for the need for the two Island groups to have their own seats and a bit leeway for the large area of the two most northern mainland ones (all of Scotland is only about 1.5 seats over quota). Wales is due a reduction though, by four seats from memory.

  50. Welsh Borderer

    [T]here is a disproportionate amount of time spent discussing the minutiae of Scottish politics. This thread is a good example

    […]Number of comments mainly about the latest London poll – zero ?

    There was a fair bit of comment about the London poll in the previous thread because it came out earlier in the day whereas the Scottish one wasn’t available till just before Anthony posted. But like the latest Welsh poll there wasn’t really much movement and no difference in which seats would change hands from the last poll. Even Roger Scully is running out of things to say about the way not much has changed. Indeed the most interesting thing about the Welsh polling is how little is altering from 2010, though there may be surprises in the West and/or North in individual seats.

    As someone who commented extensively on both Wales and London polls and linked to both sets of tables, I still have to say that the Scottish one is going to be the most interesting because what matters in the end is what seats change hands. In May it’s possible that a majority of all the seats that do will be in Scotland and a new poll that suggests changes in the outcome there (though on closer inspection it’s not quite as it seems) deserves detailed discussion – especially as it’s a pollster new to Scottish polling and so with different than usual methods.

    PS Shouldn’t the number of Scottish seats be reduced to be fair to London and its (burgeoning) cosmopolitan population ? Wales should be lowered too.

    The trouble is that a lot of those London cosmopolitans aren’t entitled to vote – at least for MPs. And constituency size is based on registered Westminster electors not population, no matter how burgeoning.

    Scotland isn’t really over-represented if you allow for the need for the two Island groups to have their own seats and a bit leeway for the large area of the two most northern mainland ones (all of Scotland is only about 1.5 seats over quota). Wales is due a reduction though, by four seats from memory.

    (reposted to get rid of l-word)

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