The YouGov/Sunday Times poll this morning showed a four point Labour lead, interpreted in some quarters of the commentariat as showing an advance for Labour after the Paxman interviews. As ever, it was only one poll. Now we have a second post-Paxman poll, a ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail & ITV, and this one shows the complete opposite – CON 36%(+1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 12%(+2), GRN 5%(-2) (tabs).

If the four point Labour lead in this morning’s YouGov poll equalled their best this year, this poll is the biggest Conservative lead ComRes have delivered since 2010. Where YouGov showed Miliband’s ratings improving, ComRes show Cameron widening his lead as best Prime Minister.

There is no great mystery here, I expect we’re just seeing normal sample variation. I said this morning we needed to wait for some more polling to have any idea whether the Paxman interviews had really had any effect, whether there was a consistent trend. With two polls now showing movement in opposition directions there certainly isn’t yet. It could still be that the rest of the week’s polls show a similar movement to YouGov and the ComRes poll was just a blip… or that the rest of the week’s polls show a similar movement to ComRes and the YouGov poll was a blip. I’ve a sneaky suspicion though that we’ve just happened to see two outliers in opposite directions, and we’re going to see lots of polls showing no clear movement. Time will tell.


442 Responses to “ComRes/Mail/ITV – CON 36, LAB 32, LD 9, UKIP 12, GRN 5”

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  1. Pete B et al

    Shocking that Cameron seems to be excluding all but four of the UK’s nations.

    Which of the English, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, Cornish and British are being ignored?

  2. @Old Nat….. I guess the Manx for sure……and he’s bound to think that two on your list are actually the same thing

  3. ON
    Mercia, Lindsey, Powys, Strathclyde, Fife there are so many.

  4. Cameron went to Chippenham today -easy tory gain from libdems ?

  5. @ RAF

    Look at the crossbreaks in Ashcroft. It is why I said I am going to try and find out the mean, particularly for the Midlands.

    Ashcroft had the Liberals in England at 8% for most of March and now he has them down on 7%.

    But the big anomaly is Conservative vote of 50% in the Midlands to Labour’s 28% and UKIP collapsing to 9%.

    Go back a week and you will see that Ashcroft had UKIP on 18% and the LD on 12%, not the 6% they are on now.

    So in a week in the Midlands has seen 14% swing from UKIP/LD to Conservative, and Coservative go from 35% to 50%.

    Likely? Probably not, but plausible that it could happen? Definitely.

    Labour have stayed the same in both weeks at 28% and Green have bounced up from 4% to 6%.

    But as I said last week I feel sory for the LDs if everybody who is thinking about some other Party rushes for the door at the same time.

    Well here is your explanation for why Ashcroft’s poll is so odball this week, he either has a problem with his polling in the Midlands or he is on to something as the election ramps up.

    And this what is going to be so whacky about this election with so many parties and so many soft voters floating around. In this instance, supposedly, UKIP and and LD voters headed for Conservative at the same time.

    Panelbase data confirms that could happen, but we have to see if Ashcroft or anyone else confirms the trend.

  6. Chris in Cardiff

    Except that the Manx aren’t in the UK – unless they are adding to the immigration problem.

    (Come to think of it, he might have meant Pakistan, India, Poland and Romania or even the damn Canadians! :-) )

  7. 07052015,

    Friend of mine is from Chippenham, calls it an easy Tory gain. Backed up by big Tory lead in Ashcroft’s poll.

    Ashcroft is releasing re-run polls of eight marginals on Wednesday. Get excited.

  8. Is that a full Scottish poll, Anthony Webb?

  9. @Prof Howard

    I believe it’s the ComRes Scotland crossbreak.

  10. For a “country” built on invasion by sea over thousands of years by the Celts, Saxons, Danish and Norwegian vikings and the Norman vikings I find the immigrant debate and which culture is the purist hilarious.

    We are all bloody mongrels and I guarantee you that none of us have pure bloodlines, with the influx of Europeans, Asians Africans and “other” islanders from around the world since the sixteenth, if not earlier centuries.

    Just look at all the names on this list, there is not a Smith among us. That would be the English Smith’s, not the Scottish ones that is:)

  11. @profhoward

    It’s just the cross-break from the ComRes poll last night.

    The Populus cross-break today showed almost no movement from its recent pattern / averages.

  12. Chippenham is #14 most margiunal LD seat

  13. Andy Shadrack,

    I was going to say that I am a member of the little known Clan Smith, lords of Loch Mere, but then I saw you clarify which Smiths you meant.

  14. Or maybe you meant the Smith’s English people. It’s not clear.

  15. @andy shadrack
    “Just look at all the names on this list, there is not a Smith among us.”

    A lot of Howards though. Feels a bit awkward being a non-Howard immigrant on this site. I demand equal rights for Howards and non-Howards. #UKPRequality #WinningHere

  16. Andy S
    ‘For a “country” built on invasion by sea over thousands of years by the Celts, Saxons, Danish and Norwegian vikings and the Norman vikings I find the immigrant debate and which culture is the purist hilarious.’

    Though those you named fought each other, they were all northern Europeans with similar culture and language (apart from the Celts). Also the most recent was nearly 1000 years ago.

    We have always welcomed immigrants. I well remember the Hungarians coming over in 1956, and the first West Indian bus conductors. However, the problem we have now is the sheer numbers of immigrants from radically different cultures. Over 50% of schoolchildren in London are what are known as ‘BME’, and that’s not even counting the more recent Eastern Europeans. To bring this back to polls, it’s no surprise that UKIP are getting popular amongst some people.

  17. It would be funny if Scotland votes Tory (moreso than Labour) but gets a Labour government. What will be done about the democratic deficit?

  18. Hi,
    Does anyone know if there are any more polls due tonight?

  19. PETE B
    I am deeply hurt that the Chiltern Hills Celts were not included in your list up page. Our own name for High Wycombe (the old Chiltern capitol) is Abergooohpolackshiel.

  20. Steven
    A YouGov will be out in a few minutes and will (no doubt) be posted here.

  21. Apparently YG:

    CON – 35% (+3) LAB – 35% (-1) UKIP – 12% (-1) LDEM – 8% (-) GRN – 5% (-1)

    Not sure why that’s out early and if it’s valid.

  22. Cool. Thankyou :)

  23. On the subject of electoral reform from upthread, I would favour AV elections to the commons and a mostly PR elected second chamber with some appointed cross-benchers.

  24. @statgeek

    The political editor of The Sun tweeted it early.

    He’s been known to do that with YG/Sun polls that look relatively good for the Tories.

  25. Roland
    Lol!

  26. I think we are looking at Labour + lib dem

    Not because of national share but because marginals, especially in and around London will go very red with UKIP doing enough to reduce the Tories by a few percent and Lib dems generally holding up against tories because of labour tactical voting.

    So perhaps 300 labour (and this assuming big losses to the SNP), 20-25 lib dems.

  27. @Neil A

    I don’t view the idea of a Labour Government + SNP C&S as being anywhere near nailed on.

    I think Con + LD is going to exceed Lab + SNP in terms of seats and that Con will be close to 300.

    Sometime soon YouGov are going to start to build in a turnout adjustment into their polling (perhaps even tonight given the short campaign has started) which can only help the Conservatives, and that may change a few perspectives here.

  28. So the latest YouGov has the two parties on 35 each.

    No change.

  29. Prof Howard

    Its 2 point swing back to Con. A good couple of days for Con. Let’s see what the next few days bring before some posters on here get carried away and start talking of a Con majority again.

  30. Prof except Con+Lab up but could just be MOE.

  31. Oh and on the SNP having nothing in common with the Greens

    Unlike Labour but like the Greens the SNP oppose Trident renewal.
    Unlike Labour but like the Greens the SNP support unilateral disarmament.
    Unlike Labour but like the Greens the SNP oppose Nuclear power.
    Unlike Labour but like the Greens the SNP binding CO2 limits.
    Unlike Labour but like the Greens the SNP want to increase public spending.

    Peter.

  32. Good polling day for the Cons today.

  33. What this (taken together with the other polls) indicates is that the political parties are still neck and neck and that the debates have not changed anything.

  34. Yep, looks like continued polldrums, with a slight squeeze on UKIP and Greens.

  35. @ Phil,

    Sometime soon YouGov are going to start to build in a turnout adjustment into their polling (perhaps even tonight given the short campaign has started) which can only help the Conservatives

    It seems like it should, but there have been months when the Ipsos Mori filter has actually helped Labour. I don’t know if that’s a quirk in how they filter or MoE or what, but the turnout gap doesn’t seem as consistent as it has in past elections.

    (IIRC the Ashcroft turnout filter always helps the Tories. Not sure about the others.)

  36. Any idea which polls come out tomorrow? ICM?

  37. So, it’s starting to look like the first ‘debate’ had little or no effect on polling after all. Lab and Con remain neck and neck, while UKIP and Greens get gently squeezed. Will Thursday’s 7-headed debate have any effect? Possibly not, though the added publicity it gives to UKIP, Greens, SNP and PC is probably worth something, regardless of who is judged to have ‘won’ or ‘lost’ the debate.

  38. @ Profhoward,

    YouGov. ;)

  39. luke
    I think you’re right there. As the campaign gets under way and they get more publicity, the smaller parties (including LibDems) might start to reverse the gradual squeeze.

  40. New thread with an excellent first post!

  41. Summary of tonight’s YouGov

    Conservative

    They have hit a five poll rolling average of 34.4%, for second time in three days, the highest of the year.

    The signs are that their VI is actual flattening off slightly, and their rise is slowing.

    Labour

    They have had seven polls in a row above their 2015 mean, and a zenith of a 2015 five poll rolling average of 35%.

    Ed has legs at the moment.

    Lib Dem

    Eight of their last nine polls above their last 2015 mean.

    Their five poll rolling average is 7.8%, just below the record for 2015, 8%.

    UKIP

    Twelve consecutive polls below their 2015 mean, and for two days in a row a five poll rolling average of 12.4% (lowest of 2015).

    Green

    Twenty three of the last twenty four polls below their 2015 mean.

    A new 2015 low five poll rolling average of 5.6%

  42. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “Unlike Labour but like the Greens the SNP oppose Nuclear power.”

    ————

    Oh, so it’s not just the Greens, the SNP don’t appreciate the essential benefits of Thorium either? One despairs…

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