The YouGov/Sunday Times poll this morning showed a four point Labour lead, interpreted in some quarters of the commentariat as showing an advance for Labour after the Paxman interviews. As ever, it was only one poll. Now we have a second post-Paxman poll, a ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail & ITV, and this one shows the complete opposite – CON 36%(+1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 12%(+2), GRN 5%(-2) (tabs).

If the four point Labour lead in this morning’s YouGov poll equalled their best this year, this poll is the biggest Conservative lead ComRes have delivered since 2010. Where YouGov showed Miliband’s ratings improving, ComRes show Cameron widening his lead as best Prime Minister.

There is no great mystery here, I expect we’re just seeing normal sample variation. I said this morning we needed to wait for some more polling to have any idea whether the Paxman interviews had really had any effect, whether there was a consistent trend. With two polls now showing movement in opposition directions there certainly isn’t yet. It could still be that the rest of the week’s polls show a similar movement to YouGov and the ComRes poll was just a blip… or that the rest of the week’s polls show a similar movement to ComRes and the YouGov poll was a blip. I’ve a sneaky suspicion though that we’ve just happened to see two outliers in opposite directions, and we’re going to see lots of polls showing no clear movement. Time will tell.


442 Responses to “ComRes/Mail/ITV – CON 36, LAB 32, LD 9, UKIP 12, GRN 5”

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  1. Yep I suspect tomorrow’s poll will show Con and Lab very close. Still all to play for.

  2. Lib Dem mini-recovery continues

    UKIP squeeze continues (12% is low for ComRes – check the tables. It’s just that last poll’s 10% was very low)

    Green squeeze continues

    Big 2 continue to score high (68%), this would have been surprising a couple months ago but we’re used to it now

  3. Poor Anthony. The election result may be uncertain but the battle between Reason and Fevered Speculation only ever has one winner.

  4. The Scottish cross break looks very interesting. Looks like Labour are being squeezed by the SNP and Tories in Scotland, taking a pounding in England and wobbling in Wales.

    I really have this feeling that over the next few weeks Labour are going to collapse in the national polls.

  5. CON/LAB stronger
    GRN/UKIP despression
    LD stable ish

    seems to be the trends..

  6. Is that from reading tea leaves?

  7. If there is anything worse than drawing conclusions from a single poll, it is drawing conclusions from the Scottish cross breaks of a single poll!

  8. OMNISHAMBLES
    “Lib Dem mini-recovery continues”
    __________

    That’s got to be bad news for Labour.

  9. @Prof (FPT)

    I do aggregate them. 6-poll, 15-poll, 30-poll, calendar month, MAD system and now a time-weighted MAD system. However, I only aggregate YouGov’s five weekly polls (to avoid the woeful MoE of each CB).

    I’ll keep on linking to Scottish crossbreaks on other polls because that is all we have to go on. They might not be statistically solid, but they are more solid than presumption. So on that note:

    ComRes Scotland – https://twitter.com/StatgeekUK/status/582292743508115456

    :))

  10. @allan christie

    A Labour collapse? No way, that would require the mother of all gaffes.

    We’re going to see both parties swing up and down during the short campaign, it’s inevitable given the intense media focus, debates and “debates”, Events and Big Moments that are coming up.

    We need to stay focused on the trends…

    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/graphics/2015_pool_top_5.svg

    … and the detail in the marginals

  11. RAF, what’s the problem ComRes have with their phone poll samples?

  12. Allan – why is an LD improvement bad for labour, we would have to know who from for you to say that?

    Omni – yes LDs to finish 3rd in GB popular vote and

  13. Forgot to mention. I don’t draw conclusions from the cross breaks. I just highlight the UNS seats based on a given poll. It’s yesterday’s news (literally).

  14. Lib Dems look a little high in that Scotland crossbreak.

  15. If it is true that all pollsters put the question as,”who will you vote for,i.e.,Labour,Tory,Lib-dem,or some other party,why is this.We all know the Lib-dems,although being the third largest party in 2010,are unlikely to do as well in 2015.So why do the pollsters not pose the Question,which of the following parties will you be voting for,Labour,Tory,Lib-dem,Green,UKIP,or none of these,surely this would get a more accurate response.

  16. @Chris

    Thanks for your thorough response (at the very end of the last thread) to my question about using Twitter data to assess reactions to debates.

    Others interested in this topic might find it useful to flick back and read your useful comment.

  17. OMNISHAMBLES

    I agree we are going to see both Labour and the Tories VI swing about like up market husbands and wife shares in the suburbs but over the course of the next few weeks I reckon the Tories will start to pull away from Labout.

    My hypothesis is not based on tonight’s poll but more to do with public perception between EM & DC. Sure EM gave quite a good account of himself on Paxso’s tv thing but that was more to do with the stupid personal questions put to EM by Paxso rather than on policy.

  18. JIM JAM
    Allan – why is an LD improvement bad for labour, we would have to know who from for you to say that?
    ________

    Maybe I’m wrong but did most of the Lib/Dem collapse not go to Labour?

  19. @allan christie

    “That’s got to be bad news for Labour.”

    Ehh not necessarily. Two important points

    1) The LD mini-recovery is very meagre and may not even be real, so whoever is being hurt is not being hurt badly.

    2) Labour-leaning LDs are more likely to shun the LDs after their centre-right record in Coalition. We need Ashcroft polls to see where an increase in LD support is coming from. It may just be tactical to keep out the Nationalists/Tories/Labour in which case all those parties will be hurt a tiny amount (in % terms)

  20. Continued,

    Yes I also agree we’ll see the Tories pull away from Labour, but I’m not sure when it’s going to happen. I’d bet on it happening late, rather than in the next few weeks. I expect to see a dead heat for a while yet.

  21. Back to neck and neck then, apparently.

    That said, if you’re going to conduct a phone poll, is it wise to conduct it entirely over a weekend?

  22. OMNISHAMBLES

    According to reports, Lynton Crosby who has been running the Conservative campaign since 2012, has postponed the crossover until after Easter, as he believes it is important not to peak too soon.

  23. BARNABY MARDER
    “allan christie, if your only reason for visiting this site is to wear your partisan hat & taunt other contributors, it’s not a good reason. you know full well that this poll simply balances the yougov one, unless & until other polls corroborate it. just put a sock in it for once”
    _______

    Who am I taunting? I think what you will read from my posts is the exact opposite from being partisan!! I speak my own mind and not on behalf of any political party.

  24. @ Allan,

    I really have this feeling that over the next few weeks Labour are going to collapse in the national polls.

    To be fair, you have that feeling every week.

  25. Ok, I’ve done a bit of research.

    There have been 4 Comres phone polls this year and NONE have shown a Labour lead.

    25/1/15 – Con 31, Lab 30
    23/2/15 – Con 34, Lab 32
    22/3/15 – Con 35, Lab 35
    29/3/15 – Con 36, Lab 32

    Lab average – 32.5
    Con average – 34

  26. Phil Haines – a good question, though one a phone pollster is better placed to answer. Most phone polls straddle weekend and weekday – but it doesn’t necessarily mean that doing it just on a weekend has any consequences when it comes to sample quality.

  27. Allan

    I can’t see any reason why the Labour vote will collapse. Con may end up with a few more seats than Lab but I can’t see it being any more than that.

  28. RAF

    Very interesting. The Labour and Conservative VI is very much in line with averages for that pollster.

  29. @profhoward

    “[Crosby] has postponed the crossover until after Easter, as he believes it is important not to peak too soon.”

    Me and Lynton, we’re on the same page

    No but seriously I think it’s simply a matter of “the fundamentals” and people making their minds up late. I assume Crosby’s repetitive predictions are because he wants maximum credit for crossover when it happens.

  30. OMNISHAMBLES

    The Lib/Dems in England are not going to be sitting on anything like they are now. In Scotland they are finished (we saw that in 2011) so as I expect the L/D to poll around 15% on polling day then that is going to hurt one of the big two.

    Yes some polls will show a dead heat but between Labour and the Tories over the next few weeks (mind some polls are too Laboury) but in the main the Tories will start to pull away.

  31. @Omnishambles

    “Yes I also agree we’ll see the Tories pull away from Labour, but I’m not sure when it’s going to happen” May 8th?

  32. That steady increase in the Tory VI is interesting.

  33. Allan
    Actually, as I said on the previous thread, Cons gain a lot of seats on modest LD to Con swing. A LibDem collapse would help the Cons disproportionately in seat numbers. A modest revival isn’t good news for Cons.

  34. RAF

    “There have been 4 Comres phone polls this year and NONE have shown a Labour lead.”

    Isn’t that because they were all for the Tory Mail?

  35. Allan, just a question. Why do you bother looking at polls and contributing to a polling site when a) you don’t take any notice of polls and b) know what’s going to happen anyway?

  36. OMNISHAMBLES

    “I assume Crosby’s repetitive predictions are because he wants maximum credit for crossover when it happens.”

    One theory is that Crosby does not want crossover until the last moment, and he is planning all this anticipation and level-pegging so as to get all the more credit when he puts cross over in place just one week before the election.

  37. @Simon

    Not all no. They used to poll for the Independent. I think the latest three have been for the Mail.

    I think it’s just a method quirk. For some reason their method shows more Tory leads. Just as other pollster’s methods may show disproportionate Labour leads.

  38. @allan christie

    I can’t see the LDs achieving any more than the very low double figures. From what I can see, Labour have the “Red Dems” deposited safely in the bank and a proper LD recovery to, say, 15% will hurt the Conservatives much more than Labour. Red Dems will be very annoyed at the LDs. Other than tactical voting to keep out something worse, I can’t see why Labour voters would switch back.

    @the sheep

    Possibly!

  39. @Allan Christie

    You are right: the personal questions during the debate regarding EM’s family were unfair. They didn’t mention the most talented brother – the eldest, Steve Miliband.

    He was an excellent blues/rock singer/guitarist in the 1970s – some of you may remember his hit ‘The Joker’.

    Some people, they call me the space cowboy…

  40. Millie

    Best to stick with the day job!

  41. @unicorn & @Chris

    A very thorough account of sentiment tracking on social media, specifically Twitter.

    The only thing I would add is that research has shown that not only is Twitter take up and usage concentrated among the young and younger urban professionals, but it also tends to have penetrated deeper into certain professional groups.

    For example those working in the media, fashion, design, advertising
    : ‘the creative industries’ and academics are significantly more likely to be active users than their contemporaries in the law, accountancy or engineering.

    You may wish to draw your own conclusions as to whether this demographic skew of ‘the sample’ might have an impact on likely VI / part affiliation.

    A word of caution, this info is based on judgements of Twitter accounts by third parties / Software and user surveys rather than the more rigorous data collection that Facebbok now goes in for.

  42. Presumably the objective is not to “cross over”, but to cross over and then move ahead of Labour to the point where a Conservative-led government is possible (ie 3 points ahead or so).

    That being the case, you really don’t want crossover to happen just before the vote, surely. You want crossover to happen now, followed by a narrow lead, followed by a proper lead just before the vote.

    Of course all this “what Crosby wants” / “what Crosby is planning” stuff is just silly. The man may be an excellent political advisor, but he’s no more actual control over where people put their “X” than anyone else in politics.

  43. What is meant by crossover?

  44. We have finally reached the “short campaign”. This means the much stricter spending limits apply to activities promoting particular candidates. So the advantage will shift to the parties with many volunteers rather than those with a lot of money. This will vary a lot in different areas, so from now the local swings may diverge significantly.

    One of the questions I would be interested to know the answer to is: Do the LibDems still have an army of volunteers in the seats they are trying to hold?

  45. Last six comres tory VI

    31 32 34 33 35 36

    Just watched Coalition -relies more on the Adonis book version of events rather than Laws book.In particular makes it clear Clegg made brown a red line.

    So he must know whats coming if Labour is largest party.

    Harman far more involved than I reckon she was.Ashdown more sceptical than maybe he was.Miliband seen but not heard.Balls just a bruiser.

  46. Crossover is the point at which a measurable lead for one party (ie Labour) crosses over (as in on a graph) into a measurable lead for the other party (ie the Tories).

  47. SIMON

    Crossover is the moment when Lynton Crosby achieves a sustained Tory lead in the polls.

  48. Neil A 11.42

    That last para is probably the most sensible comment of the night

  49. My point being that this is not a Presidential election on a popular vote, where crossover brings victory. The goalposts are a little to the left of that. Victory, even in its most penurious form, is some way past parity of vote for the Tories.

  50. Why are people talking about LibDems recovering to 15%? This is about double where they are now. What is the evidence for this happening, or is it just wishful thinking?

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