ICM post-debate poll

ICM did a rapid “who won” poll after the Paxman interviews with Cameron and Miliband tonight. Cameron won over Miliband by 54% to 46% – we won’t know until the tables appear, but I expect that going to show Labour voters thinking Miliband won, Conservative voters thinking Cameron won, the rest splitting evenly and not many minds changed. Still, we’ll see if there is any longer term effect in the next week’s polls. I wouldn’t have imagined there will be – while the debate was new in 2010, events like tonight’s Paxman interviews or the leaders’ Question Time style event next month aren’t new – there were things just like that in2005 and 2001 and they made bog all difference to anything.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. A Tory lead today after some ties and Labour leads so far this week, suggesting the underlying average in YouGov’s daily polls is still neck-and-neck.

UPDATE: ICM tables are now up here (thanks to that fine man Tom Clark!). As expected, perceptions of who won fell pretty much along the lines of pre-existing party support – 84% of Conservatives thought Cameron won, 74% of Labour supporters thought Miliband won, Lib Dems were split, Ukippers thought Cameron won, Greens thought Miliband won. Note that while the sample was demographically and politically weighted to be nationally representative, it was a very heavily Labour sample in terms of current voting intention: the pre-debate voting intentions of the sample had an 10% Labour lead (thus are the difficulties of doing things like this – people who watch programmes like this are different from your average voter!)


365 Responses to “ICM post-debate poll”

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  1. Catmanjeff

    Thank you for sharing and very best wishes to you and your family. Hope you can stay strong.

  2. @ Catman Jeff

    I was going to mention that the alternative to caring for carer-givers is to either spend £bns on professionals or become a nation which treats its disabled the way that Ceausescu’s Rumania did. You said it much more eloquently that I ever could; thank you for sharing your experience with us.

  3. There is an excellent 5 yearly (?) survey of carers with a ver large sample size. You can have the feeling of the life from the number, but not the reality. My wife’s students were given the task to find the human life behind various attributes of caring. They produced a widely referenced report.

  4. CATMANJEFF
    The carers allowance is morally just and actually is a good deal financially for the country.

    Spot on and well said. You and your family have my profound sympathy for the situation you find yourselves in.

  5. New roundup thread

  6. CATMANJEFF

    Your post seems to have been snipped but won’t be forgotten.

  7. @Mitz @Amber Star @Barbazenzero

    Thank you for your kind words.

    I think it’s really important that people look beyond the spreadsheet, and see the impacts of welfare cuts on real lives.

    I think that most welfare cuts actually cost more in the end that the initial headline saving.

    @Lazlo

    Do you have a link to that report please?

  8. Earlier in this parliament when I knew a number of people directly involved in ATOS assessments – some disabled – I was moved to comment on here – not the right forum but Anthony has sometimes been very tolerant – therefore before I add to the discussion it is always well to remember that they’re are real people and their families behind the statistics- people who are deserving as any of us – famous or not – of consideration and respect and because of their vulnerability and relative powerlessness we should be particularly careful not to demonise.

    I think the great danger for the Conservatives in this this sort of leak as over welfare benefits is that it will inform the election debate – as it were filling hole they refuse to fill themselves over the missing £10 billion in cuts to the welfare budget.

    Welfare is in a sense a strong card for them – as has been shown over thi last five years. That said, it is no accident that the transfer from diabliity living alowance to the new notThe salience of the issue of taking money from the most vulnerable reinforces that old chestnut ‘the nasty party’. It is perhaps a significant factor in preventing the sort of recovery after 1997 that previously the Conservative Party always historically had managed after a long period in government and a shorter period in opposition It is telling that as Cameron is their asset the Conservative brand is their liability in electoral terms and the tension between them is only reinforced in the public’s mind by these stories.

  9. @Amber

    The problem seems to be that since I moved to the new computer, the spreadsheet with the charts has gone and made them all of huge dimensions.

    Click a chart / Format / height and width. They are supposed to be 16.86 cm x 25.84 cm, but on this new PC are 22.42 cm x 34.26 cm.

    It’s not a big deal, and once changed, they stay changed. It’s just that with them being ‘big’ I can’t see the entire chart, so I can’t tell if the scales are appropriate. I generally glance through them all before dumping em as images. Some charts suit having fixed rather than auto axes, but require monitoring.

    To be honest, I didn’t think folk paid that much attention to my charts, outside of the odd “have you seen this” post.

    @Bluebob

    1920 x 1200 – No the issue. Same monitor. Everything else on the system is fine. Maybe with the new Excel installation something got reset to some default setting.

  10. @Catmanjeff

    ‘I think it’s really important that people look beyond the spreadsheet, and see the impacts of welfare cuts on real lives.
    I think that most welfare cuts actually cost more in the end that the initial headline saving.’

    How very true.

    I cannot agree with others that the posited cuts would only be noticed by those with disability and their carers. There can be few who do not have friends or family who are unaffected by some sort of disability, infirmity or
    dementia.

  11. apolgies – i hit the wrong button on the keyboard –

    Earlier in this parliament when I knew a number of people directly involved in ATOS assessments – some disabled – I was moved to comment on here – not the right forum but Anthony has sometimes been very tolerant – therefore before I add to the discussion it is always well to remember that they’re are real people and their families behind the statistics- people who are deserving as any of us – famous or not – of consideration and respect and because of their vulnerability and relative powerlessness we should be particularly careful not to demonise them.

    I think the great danger for the Conservatives in this this sort of leak as over welfare benefits is that it will inform the election debate – as it were filling hole they refuse to fill themselves over the missing £10 billion in cuts to the welfare budget.

    Welfare is in a sense a strong card for the Conservatives – as has been shown over the last five years. That said, it is also no accident that the transfer from disability living allowance to the new PIP is postponed as have been ESA re-assessments until after the May election because the government is fully aware of the effect of bad publicity.

    The salience of the issue of taking money from the most vulnerable reinforces that old chestnut ‘the nasty party’.

    here, it is perhaps a significant factor in preventing the sort of recovery after 1997 that previously the Conservative Party always historically had managed after a long period in government and a shorter period in opposition It is telling that as Cameron is their asset the Conservative brand is their liability in electoral terms and the tension between them is only reinforced in the public’s mind by these stories.

    I suggest this is not a story they will wish to gain traction over the next week before the only debate of the election.

  12. @ OLD NAT

    Fair enough, I am never sure what to do with exhausted votes and percentage after that.

    On another matter do you give any credence to this increase in LD values in the Scottish crossbreaks?

    A week ago (March 20-22) Populos had LD on 6% in Scotland and now (March 25-26) has them on 13%, while YouGov has them on 15%.

    This is turn, if you look at the YouGov crossbreak for England (March 25-26), the size of the Scottish polling numbers that is, is pushing LD values from 6 in England to 7 GB wide.

  13. @Alan

    Whilst R is impressive, it’s also pretty unpleasant to code in. I would suggest looking beyond R to Python, especially Pandas.

  14. TheSheep

    I agree if you really need bespoke coding, that Pandas is a very good way of handling data.

    For a lot of needs R will have packages that do what you need and requires a bit less on the coding side of things. Stepping from Excel to R is going to be less of a step than jumping into python.

    It all depends what your needs are, if you find yourself writing a lot of functions in R to get what you need done, then coding it up using something like Python is likely the best option.

    If you want to run a few things that have already been written in a standard R package then it’s probably suitable.

    I generally use R to prototype stuff as it’s pretty easy to manipulate data on the fly as it were.

    I was more making the suggestion that Excel is not the be all and end all of data handling needs.

  15. Labour on 36 and Cons on 32 in YG Poll; tweeted; after the first debate. Lib Dems still high at 8

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