Panelbase are well known for their Scottish polling, but today we have what I think is their first GB voting intention poll. Their first voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%.

Apart from the low Lib Dem score the figures are very much in line with averages across all the pollsters (and it’s too early to tell if Panelbase will always tend to show low Lib Dem scores or this is just an unusual result.) The tables should be out later, but in terms of methodology Panelbase are internet based, they weight by recalled 2010 vote, they are filtering likely voters to include only those who rate their chances of voting at 8/10 or more, and they don’t do any reallocation of people who say don’t know.

UPDATE: The full tables for the Panelbase poll are here. They reveal one very unusual difference – this isn’t a GB poll at all, it’s a UK poll. The vast majority of political opinion polls are only of Great Britain and ignore Northern Ireland, given its different party system. Panelbase include it. It shouldn’t actually make much difference apart from bumping up the “Others” a bit to include the DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, UUP and so on and knocking down the mainland parties by a fraction.


228 Responses to “Panelbase – CON 34, LAB 34, LD 5, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

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  1. Smithson is reporting:

    CON 36
    LAB 34
    LD 7
    UKIP 13
    GRN 5

    Which is right?

  2. Which is the correct YG numbers?

  3. Sun Politics [email protected] 3m3 minutes ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories ahead by two: CON 36, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 5
    _____

    Yip it’s going in the right direction for the Tories and that’s even before the debates get a chance to settle into the party VI.

  4. Number cruncher agrees with Smithson

  5. @ Mr Nameless

    Snap.

    It’s probably Smithson who has the correct numbers.

  6. Some different numbers here. This is the correct poll:

    CON 36 (+2)
    LAB 34 (-1)
    LIB 7 (-1)
    UKIP 13 (+1)
    GRN 5 (-1)

    And yes I agree with whoever said Ed got it worse from the audience. It seemed that way.

  7. Milibands hopes of an overall majority are surely dependant largely on whether Labour can stage a miraculous recovery in Scotland, despite what he said.

  8. It would appear that #HellYes is trending at the moment…

  9. ICM reaction poll coming in 10 mins.

  10. Agreed Phil Haines.

  11. Pete B

    It will no doubt be used by rogue members of all parties, but recent convictions have predominantly been Labour candidates or their agents. That’s just a fact, not partisan comment.

    I’m not sure that’s true. I looked at the figures about a year ago (the Rowntree Trust did a report at one stage) and from memory all Parties were involved. It’s true that about half the cases seemed to involve Asian communities[1], but Conservative, Lib Dem and Independent candidates and agents from those communities were also involved in these frauds[2]. You got the impression that the main motivation was personal rather than partisan – to get a particular person elected rather than a representative of a particular Party.

    I suspect that in turn this means that electoral fraud in more likely to be a factor at the local level rather than for Westminster – apart from anything else, it takes less votes to make a difference there.

    The Birmingham judgment that Rich mentioned was a decade ago in 2004 and there has been some tightening up since. But it may still be a problem and I think neither the police nor the Electoral Commission are as pro-active as I would like – though in part that is due to the way their roles are proscribed.

    There’s a good background piece from Democratic Audit here, though from November 2013:

    http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1870

    However at this election it is more likely that any threat to democracy comes not from fraud but to people losing their vote through the mishandled implementation of Individual Electoral Registration, with possibly millions losing their votes.

    [1] One reason for this may be that while fraud may be easier to commit in close communities like this (there was a case among the Hassidic Jews of Stamford Hill for example) detection may also be easier. In these cases the complainants also tended to be Asian as well, usually a rival candidate.

    [2] In Tower Hamlets the accusation are mainly made by Labour against a locally-based Party Tower Hamlets First.

  12. Gaurdian ICM poll shows Cameron wins – just: Cameron 54%, Miliband 46%

    Our poll result is out. And Cameron wins – just.

    Cameron: 54%

    Miliband: 46%

    More soon …

  13. The rather personal jibes were out of order from Paxman, he had EdM flustered but the went off on one about being a geek.

    I wanted to hear what may be cut if Labour wins a majority not what a bloke from the tube thought about him.

    Waste of an interview if you ask me.

  14. CON 36 (+2) LAB 34 (-1) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 13 (+1) GRN 5 (-1)

    UKIP tanking, I see. :-)

    Taking the Panelbase poll earlier today and recent YouGovs, this poll looks a bit like some MOE around a dead heat. Nothing much to report and we were probably due a Tory lead after a little cluster of Labour ones. Populus awaits tomorrow.

    As for tonight’s Channel 4 programme, I thought both Cameron and Miliband did OK, enjoying good and bad moments in fairly equal measure. Sticky start for Miliband in his Paxman interview, but I thought he turned it around quite well and finished strongly. Cameron was more comfortable with the audience than with Paxman, as was Miliband, obviously, but I’d rate it a low scoring draw.

    Taking the football metaphor a little further, maybe let’s give it to Miliband on penalties considering the match officials look a little biased to me!

    :-)

  15. And bless them, they spelled Guardian wrong so I didn’t have to.

  16. Didn’t watch. Both Telegraph and Guardian leading with ‘I couldn’t live on zero hours contract’ from Cameron, with ‘Hell yeah I’m tough enough’ from the G.

    Interesting first glimpse of the possible defining soundbites.

  17. Interesting the poll result – suspect Cameron going first when people were more attentive may have helped.

    Looking forward to seeing viewing figures, mind – and a lot of the reaction will be longer term and built on social and trad media reactions.

  18. Cameron probably did edge it but given Paxman and Burley were involved he was likely to.

  19. It looks like the papers are going to say Ed won, despite ICM giving it to Cameron.

    I feel like the fact that Ed went second may have been a disadvantage on the ICM snap poll, as presumably the ICM viewers had him being savaged by Paxman very fresh in their mind? I’m not sure.

  20. Roger Maxico
    I wonder how many of the ‘lost’ registrations are real people? It concerns me greatly that we have an essentially 19th-century system of registration and voting that is largely based on trust.

    Unfortunately some of the newcomers come from a background with a more relaxed view of electoral probity.

    Brown’s idea of an id card could have helped with this sort of problem.

  21. I think Miliband will be pretty pleased with a 54% / 46% split. Close enough to be virtually a dead heat.

  22. I think, factoring in the public perception of EM, that was a pretty solid Ed Miliband win.

  23. RMJI

    “I think anyone watching would be worried for Milliband in a head to head.”

    Do you? Well I wouldn’t be for one.

  24. @bluebob

    I agree. I think Paxo may have been overcompensating. He hasn’t been doing tough interviews for a while, he knows that’s “his thing”, went overboard. Almost seemed like he was trying to provide entertainment rather than inform us viewers.

    I’m glad we have Dimbleby chairing the final thing on April 30th.

    @crossbat
    “UKIP tanking, I see. :-)”

    Patience… patience….

  25. Even if people think Cameron won, Milliband coming close is still something people wouldn’t expect. Anything better than an utter trouncing is good news for Miliband; with ratings as dire as his, the only way is up. I don’t expect to see any changes in VI but I’d be surprised if Miliband’s personal ratings didn’t increase at least a little after this.

  26. I’m slightly annoyed we didn’t have another ICM poll done before the debate which asked who people thought would win so we could compare.

  27. “There are three snap observations on our poll.

    1) A win is a win. David Cameron is entitled to celebrate victory.

    2) But, given Ed Miliband’s personal ratings before tonight, Miliband is the man who has outperformed his benchmark – quite significantly.

    3) And this does cause problems for the Tories, because depicting Miliband as unfit to be prime minister constitutes about 50% of their election strategy. (The long-term economic plan is the other 50%). Labour are attacking Cameron, of course, but their campaign is not founded on the notion that he is manifestly incapable of running the country.”

  28. EM started woefully against Paxo but finished strongly.

  29. Oh god lets not have 8 pages of ‘I think (insert name here) won’

    Both could have been better and both could have been a lot worse.

  30. To me the most surprising was that the audiance’s behaviour was radically different between the first and second job applicant. It seemed that they got more comfortable with their task.

    I don’t think that EM did particularly well (but honesty is a hard good to sell) but Paxman was in the corner in the last 3 minutes (basically from the tube man, which was really weak attempt to dig), which eventually should come through.

    Cameron had a much easier task and he did it well.

  31. I suppose Ed had to be tested under fire. He wasn’t terrible but not prime ministerial either. I learnt nothing new however.

  32. He Who Must Not Be Named has just about called it for Ed. On another note, four blokes on multicoloured horses just rode by my window.

  33. On Sky News the press seem to believe EM did better than expected.

  34. Phil Haines,
    You are quite right.Cameron was allowed to finish long convoluted sentences,
    Milliband constantly interrupted.I think Spearmint said some time ago that this is what would happen and not surprisingly it has.Nevertheless I felt that EM
    finished very strongly and put Paxman in his place on two occasions which not
    many people do.

  35. The snap observations were by Andrew Sparrow of the Gaurn. I thought you mightn’t realise that it was straight from the Garnd because Andrew seems to have spelled all his words correctly.

  36. GARY O
    “I think Miliband will be pretty pleased with a 54% / 46% split. Close enough to be virtually a dead heat”
    __________

    The figures are almost identical to the Scottish referendum result yet Labour said that result was decisive!!

    Also I see some are complaining EM got a raw deal from Paxo and his side kick but again during the referendum Labour said they had complete faith with the broadcasters.

    What’s changed?

  37. Re: the YouGov poll

    Everything I have predicted is coming true. Except more UKIP squeezing which will happen later, and the small Lib Dem recovery which will materialise after the 30th April “debate” causes another case of Cleggmania.

  38. Retweeted Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch):
    Thanks for 2 mentions, Ed Miliband. Only met once for all of 2 minutes when you embarrassed me with over the top flattery.

  39. EdM finished strongly because Paxman changed his line of questioning into personal attacks.

  40. I agree with your earlier post Bluebob. The broadcasters don’t seem very interested in us finding out what each would do in the next parliament. That was about as illuminating as mud.

  41. After tonight’s YG:

    Con looking good, highest 5 poll rolling average for 2015 – 34.4%

    Lab are also now on their highest 5 poll RA for 2015 – 34.6% (for the third timetwo weeks)

    LD plodding along…..

    UKIP now on 10 polls below the 2015 in a row. Stuck on the lowest 5 poll RA for 2015 – 12.6

    The Greens have hit their lowest 5 poll RA of the year – 5.6%

    No change really.

  42. Alberto Nardelli [email protected] · 48 secs49 seconds ago
    ICM poll: among those who might change their mind after #BattleForNumber10:

    56% for Labour
    30% for Tories

  43. An instant Guardian/ICM poll found that David Cameron had narrowly “won” the contest with 54% saying that the PM came out on top once the don’t knows were excluded, compared with just 46% who felt that Miliband had the edge.

    The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.

    There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.

    David Cameron retains his lead as best prime minister in this survey – but by a smaller margin than in many past polls – he is preferred on this count by 48% as against just 40% for Miliband.

    ICM interviewed 3,650 adults aged 18+ online on 24-26th March. All agreed to watch the Cameron vs Miliband Live: the Battle for Number 10, and to complete a second interview immediately after it finished, which 1,123 did in the first few minutes. The data on both waves were weighted to the profile of all GB adults, including to recall of 2010 General Election voting. In essence, the post-wave data is ICM’s best guess on what a representative sample of the voting population would say had they all watched the programme.

    (Tom Clark – Guardian)

  44. @ Allan Christie

    As much as people try to leave party allegiance at the door, most fail.

    If EdM broke down in tears people here would say he is just showing his human side and losing 98% to 2% really is not that big a difference.

  45. Interesting analysis from Andrew Sparrow of Guardian (below) of tonight’s debate (if we can call it a debate), which I believe sums up the most significant aspect quite well.

    ‘Miliband is the man who has outperformed his benchmark – quite significantly.And this does cause problems for the Tories, because depicting Miliband as unfit to be prime minister constitutes about 50% of their election strategy. (The long-term economic plan is the other 50%). Labour are attacking Cameron, of course, but their campaign is not founded on the notion that he is manifestly incapable of running the country’.

  46. @Ann in Wales
    In the interests of neutrality I didn’t actually mention whether it was Cameron or Miliband who was the one subject to persistent interruption, since it was obvious to anyone who watched it.

  47. I think that’s quite enough of

    Lab supporter: I think Ed did well
    Con supporter: I think Cameron did well

    It’s really not the sort of thing that’s conducive to non-partisan discussion in the same way PMQs isn’t. There are some things when it’s easy to put your biases to one side, on things like this its almost impossible to see it through the eyes of someone neutral or who supports a different party.

  48. @ Mr Nameless

    On another note, four blokes on multicoloured horses just rode by my window.

    Okay, I’ll ask… may I have a nip of what you’re drinking. ;-)

  49. Correction

    After tonight’s YG:

    Con looking good, highest 5 poll rolling average for 2015 – 34.4%

    Lab are also now on their highest 5 poll RA for 2015 – 34.6% (for the third time in two weeks)

    LD plodding along…..

    UKIP now on 10 polls below their 2015 in a row. Stuck on the lowest 5 poll RA for 2015 – 12.6

    The Greens have hit their lowest 5 poll RA of the year – 5.6%

    No change really.

  50. @ Anthony

    I’m just reporting the reporting. Is that okay?

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