Panelbase are well known for their Scottish polling, but today we have what I think is their first GB voting intention poll. Their first voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%.

Apart from the low Lib Dem score the figures are very much in line with averages across all the pollsters (and it’s too early to tell if Panelbase will always tend to show low Lib Dem scores or this is just an unusual result.) The tables should be out later, but in terms of methodology Panelbase are internet based, they weight by recalled 2010 vote, they are filtering likely voters to include only those who rate their chances of voting at 8/10 or more, and they don’t do any reallocation of people who say don’t know.

UPDATE: The full tables for the Panelbase poll are here. They reveal one very unusual difference – this isn’t a GB poll at all, it’s a UK poll. The vast majority of political opinion polls are only of Great Britain and ignore Northern Ireland, given its different party system. Panelbase include it. It shouldn’t actually make much difference apart from bumping up the “Others” a bit to include the DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, UUP and so on and knocking down the mainland parties by a fraction.


228 Responses to “Panelbase – CON 34, LAB 34, LD 5, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

1 2 3 4 5
  1. @Pete B

    Maybe he’s aiming for the lefty vote.

  2. Q: Has the paint dried yet?

  3. @Rich

    Maybe EM was reminding the audience that DC supported those things.

  4. EM does get very close to the female presenter at times. Not sure the audience took him seriously though and I’m thinking the debates will trash Labour’s VI.

  5. Miliband was fine. Cameron was more relaxed in front of the audience though. Paxman gave a Cameron a bit of a grilling. Let’s see how Miliband copes.

  6. I think the question about his brother was unfair, and Burley rather focused on that too.

  7. I’m also thinking Paxo will rip EM a new one.

  8. @adam
    Not using silly variants on politicians names is a long established tradition on this site. It is not conducive to sensible discussion and does not really add to any point you might want to make.

    Whatever our views of tonight’s non debate, I’m sure the papers copies have been written well before it started.

  9. @rich

    I am not watching so can not comment on how he is doing.

    There is nothing in my comment which can identify my beliefs. Only that I think we should all leave our political leanings at the door when we come in here

  10. @AC

    One wonders whether you thought that anyway :)

  11. EM taking the ‘be honest’ guidance which he’s clearly received a bit far. Admitted they were wrong on bank regulation, immigration, spending,…

  12. EM got tougher questions, have to say that. DC questions were all very easy apart from maybe one on the NHS and a local closure, and even then he didn’t get pressed much.

  13. So this programme is the peak of a cutting edge political debate?

    [….wanders off get a revolver…….]

  14. ….and now he’s said he got the inequality gap wrong!!

    Anything Labour got right Ed?

  15. The thing is, will this debate change much? How many people are watching this?

  16. Miliband did fine, ad libbing it with a live audience but Paxo is now taking him to pieces.

  17. Council by elections tonight –
    Scotland
    Buckie
    Armadale & Blackridge
    Glenrothes West and Kinglassie

    Wales
    Llantwit Major

  18. Scottish election odds:

    First change in weeks.

    SNP to win most seats – odds shortened from 1/4 to 1/5. Labour drifting.

    This confirms the feeling on this site – the SNP are looking very strong. The shortening of their odds probably just reflects the feeling that May 7 is getting closer, not that their expected seat take is getting higher.

  19. Miliband struggling here

  20. Rich
    “How many people are watching this?”

    Not many. At least two of us on this site aren’t bothering, and we’re probably more interested than most potential voters.

  21. I wouldn’t like to guess at viewing figures. I suspect fairly low because it’s been planned fairly quickly and it’s not a “proper” debate. I’m a very involved activist and I’m not watching.

  22. On the audience side it was a draw. Whilst Cameron struggled with Paxman he was better than Miliband who has panicked.

  23. I think debate nights might be a good night to keep away from here…….

  24. It’s difficult viewing now, I think Ed is struggling, especially on numbers. As I said earlier, doubt many people are watching though, so little damage done.

    The seven way debate is going to be awful.

  25. Norbold I am a Labour voted and am sad to admit Miliband is struggling.

  26. @ALL

    I was watching “Big Bang” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” on E4. Did the debates go OK? Was it like this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Rl46Dpy-P4

  27. A little too defensive, not relaxed enough.

    It’s interesting how body language, nervousness and fairly minor differences get magnified.

  28. @OMNISHAMBLES
    “…Oh god Burley is awful…”

    Well…yes. We know. Pope, Catholic.

  29. Though not many are watching, the event will be reported in the papers, political blogs, and TV channels tomorrow, so it might have a small influence. Mind you, hardly anything does…

  30. Good response from EM on that tube anecdote, and a better response on both the SNP and Syria, so he turned it round a bit then.

  31. @ALL

    C’mon, people: Panelbase did a UK WIDE POLL! I never thought I’d see one! More exclamation marks! There y’go, Anthony, you can put pollsters in NI and their heads *don’t* explode.

    Although admittedly, forty years ago that wasn’t a metaphor…:-(

  32. David

    “Paxo is now taking him to pieces”
    _____

    It’s brutal.

  33. Miliband has improved. He is a resilient character. That’s for sure. A very difficult and painful first ten minutes.

  34. What was that ridiculous ‘are you ok Ed’ just as it was cutting to the break?

  35. Ooops at the end. Paxo asks EM if he’s alright. Don’t think the microphone was meant to be on.

  36. And a pretty powerful, impassioned and seemingly honest ending by Miliband. Think he gained a lot of respect in those last 5 mins. If anyone was watching!

  37. I suppose the problem with polling in Northern Ireland has traditionally been that you have to weight for what street the respondent happens to be on at the time.

  38. Good Evening All
    I think Ed came over symaptico

  39. The last few questions from Paxman were weak. Paxo was basically attacking his character, he could have done better.

  40. It looked a bit shaky for a while, but I thought he ended up finishing strongly.

    Even the most innocent TV watcher ought to see that Cameron got an easier ride.

  41. YouGov:

    CON 34 (=) LAB 35 (=) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 13 (+1) GRN 5 (-1)

  42. Ed was always the man to gain something from this, and he did. He started off horribly with Paxman but ended very strongly. He did a reasonable job with the audience too. Cameron’s affair was duller and less lively; save for a few minutes with Paxman he got the best he would realistically hope for and dodged bullets. This was always about Milliband gaining ground and Cameron not losing it; that’s why Cameron was so hostile to it all to begin with.

    It is just my biases shining through or did the audience seem more hostile, or at the least more animated, with Milliband?

  43. See, Ed did crash tonight….

    CON 36 (+2) LAB 34 (-1) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 13 (+1) GRN 5 (-1)

    ;-)

  44. LD and Green drop; 35 is quite a high figure I think

  45. After a rocky start, Miliband did quite well v Paxman. Turned some of his questions against him with humour. Journalists might poo-poo the “fighting for a majority” line (re: possible SNP deals) but it seemed to work quite well with the audience.

    Problem is, I doubt that many people were watching. Will probably help Labour morale though.

  46. are there any instant polls on the interviews (wont call them debates)

  47. ‘symaptico’?

  48. I don’t really like Paxo as an interviewer because he gets too personal but I suppose it’s his job. Miliband got sympathetic applause at the end – not good. Cameron was much more relaxed but you would expect that. I think anyone watching would be worried for Milliband in a head to head but of course there isn’t one.

    There will of course be no effect on VI whatsoever.

  49. I hope we get some stats on the length of time that Paxman let each interviewee respond before interrupting them. I got the distinct impression that one respondent was generally allowed to answer at length, while the other wasn’t allowed to complete a sentence before being interrupted.

  50. Ed for once he didnt mention people he had meet when out walking perhaps he just doesn’t meet any body now .they are all working .

1 2 3 4 5