Panelbase are well known for their Scottish polling, but today we have what I think is their first GB voting intention poll. Their first voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%.

Apart from the low Lib Dem score the figures are very much in line with averages across all the pollsters (and it’s too early to tell if Panelbase will always tend to show low Lib Dem scores or this is just an unusual result.) The tables should be out later, but in terms of methodology Panelbase are internet based, they weight by recalled 2010 vote, they are filtering likely voters to include only those who rate their chances of voting at 8/10 or more, and they don’t do any reallocation of people who say don’t know.

UPDATE: The full tables for the Panelbase poll are here. They reveal one very unusual difference – this isn’t a GB poll at all, it’s a UK poll. The vast majority of political opinion polls are only of Great Britain and ignore Northern Ireland, given its different party system. Panelbase include it. It shouldn’t actually make much difference apart from bumping up the “Others” a bit to include the DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, UUP and so on and knocking down the mainland parties by a fraction.


228 Responses to “Panelbase – CON 34, LAB 34, LD 5, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

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  1. Anthony I think posters have been pretty even handed on here from both sides. I think we have all recognised good and bad parts for both party leaders tonight.

  2. Allan Christie

    Is your point that Cameron had a ‘decisive’ win? Presumaly then todays 2% opinion poll lead for the Tories is also ‘decisive’. Until it turns into a 2% Labour lead tomorrow.

    Lots more debates to go and generally both camps will be happy as DC didn’t mess up badly and EM improved on audience expectations. – we’ll see how the others go and whether they are ‘decisive’. I suspect none of them will be.

    The QT audience seem to think Miliband did better than expected. If he keeps doing that then people might see him as more of a PM in waiting than his current poll ratings suggest.

  3. Alan,

    ”Yip it’s going in the right direction for the Tories and that’s even before the debates get a chance to settle into the party VI.”

    Careful reading too much in to one or a couple of polls.

    Look at the UKPR Average and CMJs 5 YG Moving Average.

    Con+Lab at 69%.

    I expected a clear Cons lead on the UKPRAve by next week which is looking doubtful now?

    Re Debates – a slight loss must be a relative win for EM due to the big gap in ratings between them going in to the exercise.
    If he can translate the 46% in to 40% of voters envisaging him as PM Lab will get over the 35% they need.

  4. “Instant ICM poll 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against 30% for the Tories.”

    This is the key point.

  5. YouGov First Verdict response (not a poll):

    Cameron 51%
    Miliband 49%

    Sample Size 802

  6. Well that was a laugh .

    Onwards to Sunday’s Poll.

    ex umbra in solem

  7. Anthony, will Sunday’s polls show any ‘debate’ impact, or did those go out before the ‘debate’?

  8. The notable thing about tonight’s YouGov is the big 2 total of 70%. That is higher than we normally see. In the past couple of weeks we’ve been getting between 65-70, but we rarely hit 70.

    I haven’t plotted the average over the last few months but it *seems* like a slow steady increase, if somebody has crunched the numbers feel free to correct me.

  9. New thread.

  10. Miliband has done well considering hes very much negatively viewed. Will be interesting to see further polling and viewing figures.

    Certainly from a ‘rallying the right/left’; Miliband has a lot to gain however he performs.

  11. Being one of the three people who watched the debate, I’d say Miliband just edged it; neither of them did well with Paxman (but that was to be expected), but Ed finished well, whereas David didn’t. Ed also, noticeably, had the harder questions and Burley was more interventionist with him (particularly uncomfortable when the question of his brother was raised – that had no place in the discussion and was bang out of order). Doubt it’ll shift much in the way of VI, but a decent enough warm up before the ITV debate which will most probably be more watched.

    One thing I didn’t understand though – why did Cameron start with Paxman and finish with the studio audience and Miliband the reverse? It seems to be a fairly obvious bias issue as Paxman was always going to throw a more negative light on things, whereas the studio audience would always allow for a more positive finish.

  12. Cameron won hands down that’s what the editors of the sun mail telegraph times express star have been told to say by the billionaire owners of said newspapers . how can opinion polls give any kind of peoples opinions when they are overpowered by complete bias towards the tory party . as josef Goebbels used to say “keep telling the people what to beleave often enough and they will beleave it “

  13. @Bluebob

    For what it’s worth I agree. Miliband dealt with the personal attacks well and it naturally engenders sympathy from a live audience when they see he is a ‘real person’ and not just a caricature from the tabloids that’s being attacked.

    Enough though from me as AW has spoken. Any more polls tonight?

  14. @ETIENNE

    People who say they haven’t made up their minds yet are usually telling fibs. There was nothing in the interviews to change anyone’s minds but many prejudices will have been confirmed.

  15. The ICM poll suggests that Miliband lost, but XYZ, therefore he won an epic victory.

  16. Presenter on Newsnight saying that Lab members coming out of the interview beaming while Tories look winded.

  17. @RMJ1

    Yeah, nothing new at all.

    In general I don’t much like these set pieces. I’d rather a 4 hour programme with 2 hours each of substantive issues across all policy areas, with the leaders given a real chance to finish their answers.

  18. GARY O

    I couldn’t put a % score on who won tonight but I look at the body language and who looked more uncomfortable.

    I do admit that the last 3 mins of Paxos questioning to EM was a car crash for Paxo and he himself must know he is nearing his sell by date on such programs.

  19. @Peter Bell

    Sky News said the same. But that’s just based on expectations.

  20. Meanwhile the price of oil has surged today.

  21. @ James and Catmanjeff

    So which is Con 36 or Con 34, or Lab 34 or Lab 35?

  22. @Andy S

    Cons ahead by 2%.

  23. JIM JAM

    A little bit of posturing in my post you were referring to but when the proper debates take off then the party VI will be very interesting.

    Yes the UKPR average has moved in the right direction for Labour but when the clocks go forward at the end of the week I expect the Labour VI to fall back.. ;-)

  24. AMBER STAR
    New thread

    Thanks but am not done on this yin just yet so hold your horses. ;-)

  25. @RMJ1

    Well, there have to be some undecided’s out there. I think it’s difficult for the politically engaged to put themselves in the mindset of those who aren’t.

  26. @Anthony

    “its almost impossible to see it through the eyes of someone neutral”

    I thought they were both great. I didn’t watch them. :))

  27. Looking through the ICM instant poll all that is clear is that everyone ‘supported their man’ and opinions split along party lines. As far as potential future ‘squeeze’ UKIP supporters liked Cameron more and the Greens went for Ed (quite strongly) Basically the response to the debate is therefore pretty much as expected and as Anthony said it doesn’t look like it will change anything much.

  28. .

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