There are two polls out tonight, both showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 35%. The first of ComRes’s more frequent telephone polls for the Daily Mail, ramped up to a weekly timetable for the election campaign, has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 7%. Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has extremely similar figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%.


269 Responses to “Latest YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. @Old Nat and Richard

    I would have thought that Scots Tories are more likely to vote LD in the (vain?) hope that more LD MPs will help DC remain in office.

    Tactical voting will be even more of a nightmare this GE than on previous occasions. I tend to agree with the view that, on this occasion, we ought to vote positively for what we really want – and see what happens!

  2. @Peter

    Jim Murphy!

  3. @ Hawthorn

    ™These are all politicians in a democracy, not Nicolae Ceaucescu.”

    Yes and no. His downfall (well, the manner of it), is directly attributable to the decision of repaying foreign debt (which was achieved).

    But today’s EU member Romania is effectively run by the special prosecutors who get their orders from the European Commission and use the secret police to a very large extent.

  4. MRBEESWAX

    There are Yellow Kippers as well.

    I think a lot of UKIP VI are protest votes. I don’t mean to be derogatory about protest votes, but they are not usually bothered about whether Lab or Con is in power so I don’t see why they should go away from UKIP.

  5. @Catoswyn – 5.43

    But won’t that let more Tories in?

  6. @John B

    Yes it will, especially here in the West Country. However those who previously voted tactically to oppose the Conservatives may just see the Lib Dems as Tories in all but name/a vote for the Tories in disguise anyway. There was a lot of anger around when Clegg said a week after the last election that he did not want tactical votes anymore and he most definitely was not a left of centre party. That is even before tuition fees etc.

  7. Hawthorn my NOTA LDs now giving a Green or UKIP VI and likely to stay there.

  8. @JimJam 3:30

    LRR – yes the issues is what will drive support back but more recent converts will need less of an issue or less issues accumulatively to return as they are less entrenched.

    I agree. So:

    Last In Easiest Out
    rather than
    Last In First Out

  9. LRR – OK so Last In easiest out Therefore most likely out

    But LIEOTMLO doesn’t have mush of a ring to it – smiley thing.

  10. Jim Jam

    It’s snappier than

    Last In Easiest Out Therefore Most Likely Out Depending On the Circumstances Of Course

  11. How About:

    Last In Maybe First Out As It’s Pretty Much Impossible To Tell What Is DrivIng People To Change Their Votes, Maybe It’s Last In First Out Or Even Everyone Within Statistical Errors Has An Equal Chance To Be The Next Out.

    *takes breath*

  12. @ Omnishambles

    “Do you think the public spend 5 years thinking about the next election?
    Why do you think the parties bother spending time and money on a campaign just before the election?”

    What you fail to realise is that Peter Crawford is never wrong, so when he says UKIP will not be squeezed and Labour will have 40 Con gains that is what will happen.

    :)

  13. Alan

    Much too dogmatic. It’s far, far subtler than that.

  14. Missed a fair bit of play today – could do with a quick summary, if anyone has the time.

    Which party is doomed today?

  15. LRR

    Hmm, perhaps we can rework Kerchov’s laws of the bloody obvious.

    “Everyone who supports a party either leaves at some point or stays there.”

  16. Andy Shadrack – “The lesson learned is that when you don’t include someone in the day to day running of your country, they have no good reason to stay in that country. ….The origins of Quebec nationalism were grinding poverty and an inability of the French Quebecois to work their way out of that grinding poverty.”

    I don’t think the situation in Scotland is anything like in Quebec.

    First of all, Scots have never been excluded from the day to day running of the country.

    Not sure you realise this, but both Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were born and educated in Scotland. Cameron is ethnically Scottish too (though like Blair he represents an English seat). So you could say that the prime ministers from 1997 on have all been ethnic Scots. That’s an 18 year period.

    And in a country of 63 million people, the 58 million non-Scots have rights too. The Welsh haven’t had a prime minister since Lloyd George nearly a century ago, and the Cornish haven’t had a prime minister EVER.

    So lets put aside all this victim thinking – the idea that a small population is a victim because they can’t have a prime minister 100% of the time and to hell with the rest of the UK, is nonsense.

    Also – the median income in Scotland is similar to England, it is Wales that is poor. The Scots weren’t keen on independence before the oil came around. Then they thought why should we share. It wasn’t about poverty, it was about greed.

    Part of the reason for the surge in the SNP since the referendum is a pique vote. They were making such a noise that they hadn’t realised that they’d intimidated 55% of their compatriots into keeping silent and delivering the boom in the privacy of the ballot box. They felt stunned and stupid that they didn’t realise what was going on in their own country. Then the oil price collapsed and now they feel stupid. Then Greece showed the dangers of a being in a currency they didn’t control, and now they are feeling stupid squared. So there’s an element of “Are you laughing at me, I’ll show ya” involved in the vote.

    They’ll calm down in about five years time. Especially if the devolution measures they are demanding results in their subsidy disappearing. At that point they’ll be feeling stupid cubed and will pretend they were against it all along.

  17. Monday’s ICM Scottish poll – Holyrood

    Constituency / List / Seats (from Scotland Votes)

    SNP 46% (+2) / 42% (n/c) / 67
    Labour 26% (n/c) / 26% (+1) / 33
    Conservatives 13% (+1) / 14% (+2) / 15
    Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c) / 6% (n/c) / 6
    UKIP 5% (-1) / 6% (-1) / 6
    Greens 4% (n/c) / 5% (-3) / 2

  18. On the whole, I tend to dismiss any comment which includes “ethnically Scottish” as being the ranting of someone who sees the world through racist glasses.

    I haven’t seen anything to change my mind on that proposition.

  19. @Alec

    SNP were doomed by 2 bad Yougov crossbreaks in a row + bad Comres crossbreak that made it look like they had collapsed overnight, all OK now as Survation has restored the balance.

    Ditto for UKIP. We were writing their obituary after 2 bad Yougov’s and a bad Comres but then Survation arrived and the Kippers are happy again.

    There is some debating about why Yougov is suddenly showing bad Scotland cross breaks at the same time as sample sizes seeming to increase this week – has there been some change behind the scenes that is causing all these strange SNP/UKIP results this week?

    Will have to wait for a few more to see if it is noise or something else.

  20. @ Hawthorn and Peter Crawford

    You guys do the math and don’t take my word for it:

    http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06549/marginal-seats

    2013 HoC library report has 52 nd Consservative marginal seat is Worcester with plurality of 6.1%

    Deduct 13 Con-LD marginals and give Thurrock to UKIP.

    You get 38 seats on the nose.

  21. @Richard

    You forgot the travesty of the YouGov 8000 sample poll, that did NOT include a Scotland crossbreak!

  22. Andy Shadrack

    I said 38 Lab gains from Tory on 3% swing. Then gains from Lib Dem and losses to SNP and Labour are ahead of the Conservatives.

  23. Comres Welsh crossbreak great entertainment:

    Labour 47%
    UKIP 16%
    Plaid Cymru 15%
    Conservative 14%
    Green 7%
    LD zero

    I mean arre we really supposed to take this stuff serioulsy, so why publish it .

    It still amazes me that the UK allows publication without margin of error being published on the crossbreaks.

  24. I think GE will be around Cons 35%, Lab 32%. Just a gut feel.

  25. @candy

    Yep I think that’s pretty much right. I am surprised Labour are concentrating on “vote SNP get Tories” and they’re not focusing on the oil/finance aspects of an independent Scotland, a sort of “this is what the SNP wanted for Scotland” line. However I don’t know, maybe they are saying that too, I haven’t seen the leaflets etc.

    @alec
    “Which party is doomed today?”

    UKIP is doomed today. But then again everyone dies in the end, we are all doomed if you think about it.

  26. @ JIM JAM

    That depends some people on this list keep nattering on about a swingback for LD and Conservative.

    The weakest LD marginals go to Labour and then to Conservative, so if “swingback” happens for LD then Conservatives chances of picking up those 12 seats get slimmer not greater.

  27. Andy Shadrack

    The crossbreaks are there as part of showing the raw data to avoid accusations they are making their data up, not to try and provide information about that crossbreak.

    What was the size of the Welsh cross break? MOE of +/- 10%? More?

    The problem lies not with the data but how it’s used.

  28. Omnishambles

    “I am surprised Labour are …….. not focusing on the oil/finance aspects of an independent Scotland”.

    Think about it.

    This is a FPTP election where “the 45%” who ignored such arguments during the referendum campaign are now ignoring the Unionist parties.

    Lab/Con/LD/UKIP could win some constituencies if they selected a single candidate and refought the referendum.

    Of course, a lot of potential Lab/Con/LD/UKIP voters wouldn’t actually vote for a hated Lab/Con/LD/UKIP candidate in an election, so even that wouldn’t be a guaranteed tactic.

  29. I think a big problem here is that we do not know how many times a person who voted LD in 2010 has voted Green, UKIP, Conservative or Labour since then.

    Someone who voted UKIP, BNP, NF or socially conservative christian in 2010 is not now going to switch to Labour or Conservative.

    Humans are really creatures of habit so if someone has voted Green in local elections and European elections they are far more likely to stay there than switch now.

    Also when someone says they are willing to consider switching we do not know what the conditions that are attached to that switch are.

    People do not get up in the morning and “oh I have been fool” I really should vote Labour.

    I still think that because in this election two extra parties are delivering leaflets and showing up on the doorstep that will make a difference.

    Running a candidate is one thing but actually starting to run a GOTV campaign does make a difference. And I remain unconvinced that LD has the same GOTV capacity as it had in 2010.

  30. @oldnat

    You’re right, “the 45%” did ignore the arguments. But the referendum happened before the oil price halved and so on. Scotland releases its own public finances data, the latest only a couple of weeks ago.

    So it’s very easy for Labour to take that data which needs no exaggeration to be scary as hell (e.g. the Scottish deficit is almost double the UK deficit) and ask voters to consider an independent Scotland in the current conditions.

    During the referendum campaign you could ignore such arguments and pretend everything would be fine – it is impossible to do that now. That’s the main difference since the referendum. It’s difficult for me to believe that 45% of Scotland would happily ignore the facts.

  31. @ Omnishambles

    “But then again everyone dies in the end, we are all doomed if you think about it.”

    Not quite. Shakespeare has a tendency in some of his plays to kill off almost everyone. But only almost. Think of Fontinbras’s arrival at the end of Hamlet (or France at the end of King Lear). They don’t have personal approval ratings, and we haven’t got the clue of their policies. Yet, they are the winners. And we are not doomed (unless we all choke on the after theatre dinner, walk to under buses, taxis, think too much about Shakespeare, etc).

  32. Andy Shadrack

    So someone who voted Green in 2010 and now says they would vote Labour in 2015 should be treated as a liar and stuffed back in the Green camp by the pollsters?

    An interesting methodology, no doubt.

  33. @ Hawthorn

    “There are Yellow Kippers as well.
    I think a lot of UKIP VI are protest votes. I don’t mean to be derogatory about protest votes, but they are not usually bothered about whether Lab or Con is in power so I don’t see why they should go away from UKIP.”

    Indeed and there will be many and various reasons for that protest. It may well be the caricature of ‘They’re all as bad as each other, might as well give someone else a chance’ – Such people exist, though they don’t comment here.

    Or they could be members of the Liberal Party (yes they still exist!) in Cornwall who have stood down and advised their members to Vote Ukip, presumably because they see them as the natural successors to Mill.

  34. I see that the polls are meeting the convergence criteria for political union.

  35. @Laszlo

    “…And we are not doomed…”

    We most assuredly are. The trick is to ensure we are not also damned…

  36. Pressman strikes!!

    The Sun faces both ways and anti Labour both times

    http://labourlist.org/2015/03/will-the-sun-just-say-anything-to-stop-people-voting-labour/

  37. @Omnishambles
    “It’s difficult for me to believe that 45% of Scotland would happily ignore the facts”

    There is no such thing as an underestimate of average intelligence. – Henry Adams

    You said something similar about the survey that showed 28% of paople decide their vote in the polling booth, if memory serves.

  38. Omnishambles

    What makes you think that LiS don’t try to make those arguments?

    They may be unpopular, but they aren’t incompetent.

    They understand that this election isn’t a rerun of the indyref. The view of what popular opinion in Scotland seen from here is rather different from how those outwith the country imagine it to be.

  39. Ok folks so can we have a serious conversation about the options found in the YouGOV Sunday Times poll. The anti-SNP bias on this list is absolutely palpable:

    Support for coalition:

    Lab-SNP 7%
    Con-LD/Lab-LD 6%

    So the first thing I learn is that by the slimmest of margins the option most supported by voters is Lab-SNP.

    I would not mind:

    Conservative-LD 31%
    Labour-LD 27%
    Labour-SNP – 18%

    Don’t’ know:

    Conservative-LD 11%
    Labour-LD 13%
    Labour-SNP 16%

    So what I learn about a Conservative-LD coalition is that 47% of voters would not get bent out of shape about the coalition continuing

    46% of voters would not get bent out of shape about a Labour-LD coalition being formed.

    41% of voters would not get bent out of shape about a Labour-SNP coalition and I wonder what would happen if someone sat down and educated voters about how C & S works

    Dismay over potential coalition:

    Con-LD 52%
    Lab-LD 54%
    Lab-SNP 59%

    The dislike of all three options varies by only 7 percentage points and could that be because UK citizens are not used to having coalitions and a majority do not like the current one at all.

    It really comes down to the spin you put on things and if you read polls to suit you own political bias as a means to arm you side of the argument, which we all do, then you can sometimes read more into things.

    As I believe someone said this morning, about their door knocking experiences, the issue of a Labour-SNP coalition is not coming up.

    And I bet half the people who said they were dismayed about a Labour-SNP coalition said that without actually thinking it through and would also tell you in the same breath that they were afraid of immigrants too – it is a fear of the unknown and some politicians are playing “boogeyman” politics to get votes.

  40. Now…the sense I get is that if the Tories poll 35%+ , Labour will need to pare back some of their likely losses in Scotland to end up as the largest party.

    I don’t however expect the Tories to end up on 35%. Ukip have fallen back a bit as they are out of the limelight. Once the short campaign starts that will no longer be the case (in England and Wales).

  41. RAF

    Who will “end up as the largest party” may give Con or Lab some bragging rights, but unless the other party is willing to cede power to their rivals on that basis, it really doesn’t matter for the governance of the UK.

    Indeed, that is the answer we really need from Con/Lab. If they aren’t the largest party will they give up on trying to form an arrangement with MPs from other parties and just tamely leave the other to exercise power?

  42. @pete b

    Yes I did say that, then other more mature contributors gave me reason to doubt those numbers (people are bad at remembering when they decided things)

    @oldnat
    “What makes you think that LiS don’t try to make those arguments?”

    I admitted in my previous post that I don’t know for sure – maybe they do. I’m speculating based on my very patchy knowledge of the campaigns in Scotland from: what people say here, John “the hair” Curtice and occasional browsing of Scottish media. I was hoping I’d attract a comment from someone informed like you and your LiS equivalents on UKPR.

  43. @ Martyn

    “We most assuredly are. The trick is to ensure we are not also damned…”

    I will plagiarise this …

  44. @ Alan

    That’s what is happening with some LD voters who won’t say how they plan to vote or do not know how to vote. The pollsters are assigning them back to LD, so why should not the Green or UKIP get the same treatment or are you suggesting each party should have a differet methodology for assigning value to it?

    @ Candy

    You obviously do not know your history of Canadian Prime Ministers

    Trudeau French Catholic Quebec
    Mulroney Irish Catholic Quebec
    Chretien Quebec

    Do you really believe that the turnout in the referendum went from 50% to 75% in Glasgow and for the yes on the basis of “greed”?

  45. @Laszlo

    You’re welcome

  46. Good Evening all; another starry night here in Bournemouth East Constituency.

    No one can tell the way this variegated contest will go, except that the numbers look very tight.
    I think Labour does need Lib Dems to do better than the polls suggest in the tory-lib dem marginal.

    RICH:
    My gut feel is that Murphy’s Labour Party in Scotland will do not so badly.

  47. Omni
    It just strikes me as strange that you (and others) dismiss the only figures that we have about when people make up their minds simply because you can think of reasons why they might not be entirely accurate, and it’s not what you do.

    It’s a good job pollsters don’t think the same way! If data is suspect, but it is your only source, the sensible approach is to accept it with caveats, and then try to think of ways to refine or clean up the data to give an answer that is more robust.

  48. OldNat

    That’s ultimately the government’s decision in the event that the opposition does not achieve an overall majority.

    However, we have been led to believe that DC will resign as PM if Labour wins more seats. Make of that what you will.

  49. ChrisLane1945

    “My gut feel is that Murphy’s Labour Party in Scotland will do not so badly.”

    Presumably Miliband’s Labour Party in Scotland will plunge to total disaster?

    When did parties become personal possessions?

  50. @andy shadrack
    “Do you really believe that the turnout in the referendum went from 50% to 75% in Glasgow and for the yes on the basis of “greed”?”

    What are you on about?

    The turnout increased? From what? There wasn’t a previous independence referendum.

    Furthermore the “yes” vote was 53.5% in Glasgow. Turnout includes “yes” and “no”, I hope you realise that. Turnout added more to both choices, not just “yes”

    @pete b

    I’m not dismissing them, I’m doubting them. There is truth in there but I’m not sure how robust it is.

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