There are two polls out tonight, both showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 35%. The first of ComRes’s more frequent telephone polls for the Daily Mail, ramped up to a weekly timetable for the election campaign, has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 7%. Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has extremely similar figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%.


269 Responses to “Latest YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. first?

    I can hear the rumblings of dramatic swingback…!!?

  2. It does look like UKIP are steadily slipping back.

  3. Terrible week for Ukip. It’s probably all over.

  4. It does seem the UKIP squeeze is on. I think it may have started with previous Labour voters going back to Labour following on Farage’s comments that he would go in to a coalition with the conservatives but no mention of Labour.
    Also suspect some conservatives are drifting back now as they can see it will be a wasted vote (with the exception of a handful, if that, of seats)
    The question is how big the squeeze will be. Having said that still expect the odd poll to give a good result for UKIP but believe the average will only go one way, down.

  5. @James Peel

    Some ‘rumbling’ have been evident for the last 6-8 weeks, although they may not be dramatic.

    Perhaps ‘gentle tilt back’ might be more accurate than ‘swing back’.

    Given the big increase in both Green and UKIP support and membership, then I don’t expect their VI to fall back to 2010 levels.

    My hunch is that UKIP will get about 10% of the vote, and the Greens maybe 4-5% in May.

  6. @NeilJ

    This graph shows nicely when UKIP and the Greens started to decline, and the main parties picked up:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDV3J4Zm1ib1hQazg/view?usp=sharing

    (down is bad, up is good)

  7. Last week it was Green being given out the 4s and 5s, while this week it is UKIP being given the 10s and 12s almost like getting a report card from the teacher.

    At the end of week 1, March, I had Conservative ahead by .4%, at week 2 Labour .3% and week 3 Conservative .1% all clustered around 33% and two days into week 4 both are at 33%, one at the low end and the other at the high end.

    Yes UKIP is down and have been a point to half point below the beginning of February and LD are up a point and Green were down 2 points last week, but have bobbed up slightly this week…whereas the nationalists are on even.

    This still all looks like “house effect” depending on which pollster is reporting out which week or margin of error. There is no unanimity from the pollsters, a bit like crabs trying to climb out of a bucket…just when you think one is about to get out another one pulls them back down.

    But next week, March 30th I believe, Cameron will go the Queen and ask for Parliament to be dissolved, so the question of who you want to govern becomes for real and Cameron has now cleverly said I only want one more term.

    So maybe this week people are really starting to line up behind the horse they know they really have to back or they are still testing the waters to see if they can have their cake and eat it to. Vote SNP and get Labour. Vote UKIP get Conservative. Vote Green or Plaid Cymru get Labour.

    Now neither of two the major parties like these political slogans because they did not invent them, and the voters if they follow “their hearts desire” may take a risk, which is why there may be some jitteryness around actually voting for these options.

    And we may not know until late May 7th or even late May 8th just how many people followed “their hearts desire”, but for sure I think the bride being left at the alter in this election is going to be LD.

    Unlike 2010 there are at least three possibly four other options to be considered UKIP, SNP Green and Plaid Cymru. UKIP is running nearly as many candidates as LD and Green are only 20 or so behind LD. This election could be a game changer or not, while the Conservative, if they approach 35% are reaching their 2010 result, but if Labour are at 35% they are 6% up on 2010.

    As a former long distance runner I always remember those who came out fast and faded before the end of the race, while I used to slowly move up through the field, hoping I had enough in me for the inevitable sprint at the end.

    Which party actually has the horsepower or person power I cannot tell you, but watching the race is as always fascinating.

  8. Swingback is here ?Maybe more curveback.

    After a 37-31 on Monday the latest crossbreak from yougov is

    Snp 34,Labour 32

    Tho as usual some slightly odd features Tory lead amongst women,Labour lead amongst men.

    Tories lead in Wales and the Midlands -surely time to publish separate figures for this and to publish England,Wales and Scotland too.

    The ex snp leader expects the Tories to be the largest party -maybe he spoke too soon.And what does the leader think ?

  9. One poll a trend does not make, and a trend does not win an election until all the ballot are cast at that election.

  10. @AW

    The YouGov has a much larger sample than normal. Can I asked if you have changed anything about the weightings the last few days/weeks? Maybe YouGov though the SNP were too high a couple of weeks ago and have tweaked. I ask because the figures look very similar to Populus results at the beginning of the year.

    Scotland has been considerably unweighted, which is unusual 141-175. But the SNP down weighted by ~65 – 38 (impossible to tell real figure because Plaid included

    Also, how do you judge ‘party identification’ and what year do you base it on?

  11. Of course the prof told me off yesterday with the 37-31.Need a scottish poll to really know.

    Apparently Crosby thought swingback was on when tories had three yougov leads two weeks ago.

    But small gap in 2010 Lab to Tory and 2010 Tory to Lab ,7 to 4 ,needs to be watched.

  12. @07052015

    There were two full-scale Scottish polls with fieldwork completed last week (ICM and Survation). Unless your hypothesis is that opinion has changed since last Friday.

  13. UKIP definitely seem to be falling

  14. The level of Scoffing at the 290-295 Brigade seems to be increasing!

    It reminds me of the amount of opprobrium experienced by the few us who suggested a Cons OM in the run up to 2010 was not a forgone conclusion.
    IIRC, Neil A as a cons supporter saying so got similar remarks addressed to him as Lab supporters do now for believing Con most seats is likely now.

    It seems that 38-40 seats Lab-Con is the forecast from a few posters based on current polling and it only takes this to fall by 7-10, with no corresponding move in Scotland to compensate Labour, for the Cons to have most seats.

    I agree at that level while the Tories may have most seats a Cons. UKIP, LD. DUP alliance to pass a Queen’s Speech and/or Budget is very unlikely and would be unstable if it did; however, a Lab led Government would also be unstable with such arithmetic.
    A further 7-8 seats though so only 25 gains by Lab from the Tories would allow a weak Cons dominated (Prob C&S) Government to just about function.

    It may not happen but it is realistic, just as it is realistic that Lab could improve by 10-15 seats in Scotland and/or 5-15 in E&W (v current UNS), possibly breaching 300 and be able to negotiate with more authority with the LDs and/or SNP.

  15. ‘CATMANJEFF
    This graph shows nicely when UKIP and the Greens started to decline, and the main parties picked up:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDV3J4Zm1ib1hQazg/view?usp=sharing
    (down is bad, up is good)’

    Thanks, that is very clear

  16. James

    You are right. The two recent full scale Scottish polls surely scotch the idea that there is a Labour revival. The You Gov cross breaks only become reliable when you add together about 10 of them.

  17. Prof, even then we don’t know if the weightings within Scotland are representative.

    If the weightings in Scotland are usually unbalanced to compensate for unbalances elsewhere in GB then the cross-breaks even in aggregate will be wrong.

    As you suggest, the full scale Scottish Polls are the most meaningful data points and how ever some might clutch at MOE straws there has to be some big movement back to Lab to avoid the SNP Land-slide.

  18. An aspect of the lab and con kipper profile which it would be interesting to know is whether they are, more than most voters, policy watchers, and thus more likely than others to be asking who is going to give me what I want in government, and deciding that it isn’t UKIP for all the sympathetic promises. Hence what I think is a trend, which will continue in both camps for another point or three.

  19. JIM JAM

    Do you think LIFO has been confirmed in the fall in UKIP VI -it seems to have benefitted Lab as much as Cons?

    UKIP 2010 still with Con & Lab in this mornings Poll equates to Headline VIs of 4.5% & 1.3% respectively.

    Not much left for Lab to retrieve from them ?

  20. FAREHAM GRECIAN

    @”As for The Other Howard, no offence but I think the boards are much better off without his partisan ramblings”

    TOH is no more , and a good deal less partisan than many other contributors here.

    It is AW who arbitrates on what breaches Comment Rules-meanwhile TOH’s views are as useful & valid as yours or anyone elses.

  21. I am utterly convinced that one of the major factor which will lead to an increase in Tory seats, is the pronouncements of Mr Salmond. The Tories, will exploit this to the maximum.

    Their message will be, “If we have the most seats, say 295, we will not be able to run a government because of the SNP, who instead will support a labour government with say 275 seats. FPTP has its failings, but when the party with the most seats is prevented from forming a government by a party who wants to break up the Country, we have an issue.”

    The Tories wont lose any Scottish seats because of the bile they will direct at the SNP. They wont lose any voters in E & W if they major on this attack. They may attract back a good number of those havering, for whom the prospect of the party with the most number of seats is kept out of government by a party who wants to break up the country, is abhorrent. Surely even the hitherto lacklustre Tory machine can get a very effective message out on this.

  22. Clearly I’ve missed something…what’s happened to TOH, please?

  23. “I am utterly convinced that one of the major factor which will lead to an increase in Tory seats, is the pronouncements of Mr Salmond. The Tories, will exploit this to the maximum. ”

    hmmm.

    Can anyone clarify for me AS’s role in the SNP, please? Is there a Scotland SNP with NS as leader and a Westminster SNP with AS as it’s leader?

  24. Back when UKIP were flying high, and some folk were talking about them breaking the mould of British politics, many was the time I forecast that UKIP would be the “dog that didnt bark” at this election.

    Now it looks like they aren’t even going to yap!

  25. @AA

    Don’t you think it is very odd that a party that was just six months ago desperate for Scots to stay in the union are now stirring up so much enmity that the union is threatened. If they seriously wanted Scotland to stay surely they should be trying to consolidate and build on the No vote rather than pushing Scots further towards independence as evidenced by the recent Survation poll.

    I don’t mind them taking this tack but if I was a committed unionist I’d be worried.

  26. Looks like Jim Jam and I were correct and we got a lot of criticism a while back for suggesting UKIP on single figures by May.

  27. @COUPER2802

    The Union has gone. Its only a matter of when. Once you have had one referendum which is close, the next referendum is permanently on the agenda, and the one after that etc, until the Nationalists finally get the result they want.

  28. James

    A Survation poll in Scotland versus two days Yougov crossbreaks -its a tough call !!.

    ICM I will give you.

  29. @Mike N

    Funnily enough I think there is, everyone in Scotland knows Nicola Sturgeon is leader but the fact seems to escape the rUK media, the BBC etc.

    I think it’s because Salmond is more of a bogeymen. Salmond is well down the pecking order, Angus Robertson is Westminster Leader and Stewart Hosie Deputy Party Leader. So AS won’t be calling the shots. However, I am sure he does help plan strategy.

    It will be interesting when the rUK finally see Sturgeon in the leaders debate next week, they will be really surprised it’s not AS.

  30. Don’t understand. Big increase in Lab with Comres to draw level, but this is swingback?

  31. @AA

    IMO only voters who want a Con government will be bothered about what AS has said. Maybe a few blue kippers may switch, but I can’t think why it would cause anyone who would prefer a Lab government to vote Con. Consequently I don’t see this changing much.

  32. Couper2802
    Thanks.
    Well the Tories now have not one but two bogeymen (bogeypersons being PC) for this GE, then: AS and EM.

    IMO it’s hypocrisy for the Tories to say SNP voting down a Tory Queen’s speech is undemocratic if the Tories are in office again on the back of about 20% of so of the support of the electorate.

    If the Tories (and Tory press) focus on the ‘threat’ of the SNP to the democratic will of the people in GB, what effect will this have on support for SNP, Con and Lab in Scotland?

  33. The Union has gone. Its only a matter of when. Once you have had one referendum which is close, the next referendum is permanently on the agenda, and the one after that etc, until the Nationalists finally get the result they want.

    Like Canada, you mean?
    Except Canada is still Canada, so maybe you have an example which actually supports your hypothesis.

  34. The ComRes subsample is 36 SNP 31 Labour sample of just 60 people but we could be picking up a collapse of the SNP vote in these 3 subsamples. However, I think there is a full Scottish YouGov which might be published today, AW will know, this will confirm or otherwise.

  35. @Cloudspotter

    I respectfully disagree that it is only Tory voters who would be concerned by what AS says (and I acknowledge that AS is not the leader of the SNP, but he is the one who gets the most coverage here south of Hadrians Wall).

    I have no evidence other than anecdotal, (not sure if any evidence in the form of specific pollster questions exists?) but I know of many who at the start of the Neverendum last year were adamant in their support of the union, but then as the campaign progressed, and much Scottish vitriol was directed at those in England, those hitherto fervent supporters of the union became very miffed with AS, and the SNP, to the extent that they are ambivalent as to whether Scotland remains in the union – and I think that sentiment is not restricted to Tories.

    So to see AS propping up a party with fewer seats than the Tories, I think will be an abhorrent prospect to some who are havering.

    People may well cite many unholy alliances of coalitions elsewhere in the world, whereby the party with the most seats is kept out of power. But how many of those are kept out of power by a party who wants to see the demise of the Country?

  36. Cannot see what is the issue with a party wanting to vote against a Party and or policy it does not agree with. Or for that matter support a party and or policy it agrees with. Surely that is what democracy is about?

  37. James

    You are correct. Our numerical friend seems to have forgotten the Ashcroft poll from Monday whose Scottish sub sample shows SNP 56 Labour 20 Tory 17!

    It will be a tiny sample as are all Scottish cross breaks and therefore best to rely on published full polls like the ICM.

    However I happen to know that there is a YouGov super poll due to be published with a sample size of 6,000 plus. I was told in would be in Times today but no sign and therefore presumably tomorrow.

    I am told that it is close at UK level and that the SNP have “huge” lead in Scotland.

  38. MIKE N
    If the Tories (and Tory press) focus on the ‘threat’ of the SNP to the democratic will of the people in GB, what effect will this have on support for SNP, Con and Lab in Scotland?

    Divide and rule seems to be the Sun’s policy. The London version has a leader [The Sun says] SNP Nightmare following the Con line whilst the Scottish Sun [largest circulation in Scotland] goes with Block vote following a pro SNP line and ending “Get used to it”. Horses for courses, I suppose.

    Pictures of both articles are on the WoS website.

  39. @Cloudspotter

    The polls suggest about one in seven Labour voters dislike the SNP sufficiently that they’d rather the Tories got in than see the SNP with any power at Westminster. That’s enough to make a difference at polling time.

    I don’t think the SNP leadership are unaware of that.

  40. @Chris Riley

    That’s far too small a number to make a difference even if some vote Conservative or LibDem it will be balanced by anti-Tories swinging behind the SNP.

  41. CHRIS RILEY
    The polls suggest about one in seven Labour voters dislike the SNP sufficiently that they’d rather the Tories got in than see the SNP with any power at Westminster.

    Lab voters where? Which pollster asked the question? Did they say they would vote Con instead?

    Do you have a link to the tables?

  42. @COUPER2802

    I think the data to which CR refers (although I haven’t seen it so would like CR to confirm) is that 1 in 7 Labour Voters in E & W are unhappy with SNP holding balance of power. Therefore there can be no balancing by anti Tory voting SNP.

    Tories potentially have a very difficult balancing act here if they use this anti SNP strategy. On the one hand they must be secretly praying (supporting perhaps?) for SNP to annihilate Labour in Scotland but on the other hand they want to get out the message that labour in second place (based on seats) supported by SNP is an abhorrent prospect, to woo the haverers.

  43. AberdeenAngus

    The Union has gone. Its only a matter of when. Once you have had one referendum which is close, the next referendum is permanently on the agenda, and the one after that etc, until the Nationalists finally get the result they want.

    Well Quebec had a referendum about 20 years ago that was about as close as you can get (unlike the Scottish one):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995

    and yet Quebec is still part of Canada and I don’t think there is currently much demand for another referendum. In the most recent elections last year the main separatist Party the PQ lost quite badly.

    Of course the potential is always there in a country as large and diverse as Canada but if anything what has happened over recent decades is the other provinces becoming more like Quebec in developing an individual political geography. So it’s possible we will see stronger regional diversity in the UK arise as the aftermath of the referendum, but Scottish independence is certainly not inevitable.

  44. @aberdeen angus
    “The Union has gone. Its only a matter of when.”

    I think that’s up to the people of Scotland to decide, most of whom won’t even vote for the nationalists in the general election. Your comment seems aimed at starting an argument rather than adding anything useful in the way of content.

    “Once you have had one referendum which is close”

    A 10.6% margin of victory is “close” now? A very interesting way of looking at it. I’m so glad we have your insightful analysis at hand.

  45. @ Mike N

    IMO it’s hypocrisy for the Tories to say SNP voting down a Tory Queen’s speech is undemocratic if the Tories are in office again on the back of about 20% of so of the support of the electorate.

    It is hypocrisy. I remember all the cat-calls when “Brown took over without standing for election as PM”. The same folk were silent when “Major took over without standing for election as PM”.

    But I bet a pound to a penny that each side shouts the same thing loud enough when they feel like it!

    After all hypocrisy comes with the territory in the world of politics. Just as it does in some other glorious tributes to humanity; such banking, finance and arms dealing.

  46. @Roger Mexico

    Thanks for that. But I wonder whether the Quebec Referendum was fought on such a negative / vitriolic basis as the Scottish Referendum? It s highly subjective question, but can you pass comment on that?

    It is my personal view, but which I think is shared by many, that last year’s referendum caused mortal damage to the Union. The nationalists in Scotland stirred up / were provoked into voicing (delete dependent on your perspective) very anti English sentiments. There were a good number of English people, previously pro union, who now think otherwise. I therefore wonder whether next time there is a referendum (and given the SNP dominance in Scottish politics at the moment its difficult to see how there cannot be another referendum in the next few years) , so much effort will be expended by those south of the border in saving the union.

  47. Oh how we love our leaders part 2

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3009653/Arrogant-weak-liar-racist-Voters-Verdicts-party-leaders-revealed-blunt-rude-words.html

    -Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage subjected to ‘blink test’ polling by Populus.
    -2,000 people asked for the first word they think of when they see leaders
    -Cameron seen as ‘arrogant’, ‘smug’, ‘leader’, ‘liar’ and ‘Prime Minister’
    -Miliband called ‘weak’, ‘idiot’, ‘Labour’, ‘useless’ and ‘untrustworthy’
    -Clegg also ‘weak’, plus liar’, ‘don’t know’, ‘untrustworthy’ and ‘useless’
    -Farage branded ‘racist’, ‘idiot’, ‘dangerous’, ‘arrogant’ and ‘bigot’

    Comres asked

    “Q7. How important, if at all, will each of the following be in helping you decide who to vote for … – The party with the leader I think will make the best Prime Minister”

    77% overall said important
    71% of undecided voters said it was important.

    Hmmm….who to pick….

  48. @ Omnishambles

    Thanks. I’m off!

  49. Odd change in Party ID weighting for SNP in last two YG crossbreaks.

    SNP ID downweighted by 41.5% today and 42.6% yesterday compared with 25.6% and 26.6% in a couple of polls from last week.

    My aggregated numbers rely on YG applying a consistent methodology since early January.

    If they randomly start changing weightings then they are of even less value than I had supposed!

  50. It might be interesting to see if YG have also altered the ID weightings for other small parties – UKIP & Greens.

    Such a move would automatically increase the apparent support for con/Lab.

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