Monday polls

I think we have just the three regular polls this Monday – Populus, Ashcroft and YouGov. ComRes this afternoon announced that their voting intention polls for the Daily Mail will be weekly for the rest of the campaign, but the first of those won’t be until later in the week. March’s Survation/Mirror poll is also due sometime this week, but I don’t know when.

  • Populus this morning had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Ashcroft meanwhile has figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

I’ll update with the YouGov poll later, but with seven polls conducted since the budget I think we can conclude it’s had no effect.

129 Responses to “Monday polls”

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  1. ANDY

    Don’t think it stops the speculation at all. If by some miracle DC stumbles over the line to form a minority government the speculation on when he will go and who will replace him will start immediately.

  2. Good evening.

    First, a quick thanks to you all, for your commentary and insight – I’ve been an avid reader over the past couple of months.

    Re: possible external factors that could propel the Tory party to Kellners estimate of 290-295 seats, could the change in the way the Electoral Register is being compiled (from household registration to individual) have an impact?

    If estimates of a drop of around a million in enfranchisement are accurate, I’d expect the absentees to be drawn from a relatively younger demographic. Wouldn’t this disproportionately affect the LAB / Lib / Green vote?

  3. @ProfHoward

    As you say the bookies continue to expect a Tory win. Odds unchanged since last post.

    Here’s an interesting thought, continuing my earlier Anna Soubry theme:

    Tories to win most seats: 4/9
    Labour to win most seats: 2/1

    Anna Soubry to win Broxtowe: 9/4
    Labour to win Broxtowe: 2/5

    At the last election Soubry was 0.7% ahead so Labour need a 0.35% swing to win the seat.

    All makes common sense, until we take into account the 4% advantage accredited to ‘incumbents’.

    If that is the case, then the chance of Soubry winning and the Tories winning overall should be much the same.

    So, if the bookies are correct, then the incumbency advantage is a bit of a myth.

    If you believe in the incumbency advantage, then do a double on Soubry and Labour.

    I appreciate its a bit more complicated, but try asking Michael Portillo about the incumbency advantage.

    It has nothing to do with incumbency – it is called a personal vote. Carswell – popular, Reckless – less so.

    My point, obliquely, is that the LibDems are relying on a big incumbency vote to get more than 15 or so seats, and I don’t buy it.

    Lynne Featherstone – popular, Charles Kennedy – popular ( still? ) Danny Alexander – no chance, Clegg – doubtful

  4. @peter crawford
    “Omnishambles points works on a day by day basis but the actual vote on May 6th wasn’t that different from an average of polls taken at this stage in the last parliament, i.e 6 weeks before.”

    Sorry, but you’re wrong.

    They are pretty different. Go to the link I provided and scroll down to 23rd March. You’ve got:

    – Labour averaging ~32%. That’s a 2% difference to the result, in your words: “the mother of all swings”.

    – Liberal democrats averaging ~19%. That’s more than 4% different to the result. Double the “mother of all swings”.

    I only have to go back to 2010 to find multiple examples of these swings that you claim would be extremely unusual. You don’t need to go back decades. You don’t need to go to 1992. People here keep telling me 2 or 3% swings would be unheard of, well evidence to the contrary is right there in front of you.

  5. Jim Jam

    You mean being PM was just one of the things he wanted to before he reached 50 or whatever?

  6. @ Prof Howard

    “Do you have any idea as to whether Labour is getting the swing in the places it needs to?”

    I believe the Ashcroft marginal polls, by month of publication, have shown the following swings

    Month Average swing in Ashcroft
    May 5.7
    July 4.7
    August 5.7
    October 4.5
    November 8
    December 3.7
    March 4.4

    Draw your own conclusions!

  7. Re Cons and 290-295 seats.

    I think there is a little too much certainty in some of the posts suggesting this is absurd (if I may paraphrase).

    The 4% Swing in E&W could quite conceivable drop to a 2-3% swing by GE day giving the Cons a 1-3% lead over Lab in vote share.
    The rest of the gap is made up of incumbency bonus.

    I don’t think they will achieve this as I reckon the Tories will ‘only’ take 10-12 seats off the LDs and the incumbency bonus will be less than PK and some other think; it is a credible viewpoint, though.

  8. Matt in Bristol
    Welcome – and you make a very good point. I have to say that because it’s one I’ve made myself :-)

    I think personal registration may also reduce the amount of postal vote fraud, which would also (by historic precedent) affect the Labour vote particularly.

  9. Yes Pete but I think most naughty post will disappear soon.

    Millie – the bonus is ‘up to’ 4% so Soubry would have to get near the max

  10. Good post GuyMonde

    Game, set and match. Lets get on with deciding who is in the next Labour Cabinet. :-)

  11. Also Millie I think it is 4% vote share advantage so equivalent of 2% swing.
    But I may be wrong.

  12. But 290-295 isn’t enough for a Tory majority because in order to get that they have to have taken seats from the LibDem so no coalition or C&S partner to enable Cameron to form a government

    Miliband would be PM

  13. I mean of course Tory government because they have no partner to get to a majority of seats if they only get 290-295 after taking LibDem seats

  14. Couper
    You may well be right, but if Miliband governed with support from a motley crew of Labour, Libdem (?), SNP etc etc I think it might be unpopular if Tories were the largest party.

  15. @Peter Crawford

    Peter Kellner confuses me. As far as I can see he was saying the lack of a budget bounce is another triumph for Osborne because he’s saving the bounce for the manifesto.
    I suspect the great Spock might say ‘Illogical, Captain K”

  16. Why are you here? So yesterday

  17. Yougov on next page.

  18. Can anyone explain about the budget to me? For instance, I understand that a Finance Bill has to be passed for the budget to come into force, but I’ve seen nothing about that. Have I missed something?

    And then I found out today that Parliament is giving up this week until after the election. I know Balls has said he won’t vote against this budget, but if it hasn’t yet been passed presumably he’ll do his own one.

  19. @guymonde
    “saving the bounce”

    I like it.
    I’m with the Big K.

  20. Sorry folks. I’ve just found out that tehy’re doing the whole Finance Bill on Wednesday afternoon! Ridiculous! No time for proper debate.

  21. I think there are good reasons to believe any government formed next time will be unpopular.

    The only ways the SNP can avoid the charge of propping up Labour are: either abstain on just about everything (thus rendering the entire effort to get elected pointless) or support the Conservatives. Can’t see that happening.

  22. I think an awful lot of people are forgetting something and that is that in 2010 in England Conservative lead Labour 39.6% to 28.1%.

    Ashcroft had them on 36% to Labour’s 33% in today’s poll.

    Even if Conservative went back up to 39.6% as long as Labour stays at 33% or higher that is still a swing of 2.5%, which is enough to win 39 extra seats in England and 1 in Wales.

  23. MIKEY

    I cannot see why Cameron would come out with this announcement now. Any reference to a third time when a second term is far from in the bag is a bit daft.

    What is he playing at…?…I can’t see any positives for the Tories with this, it just seems to indicate instability, Joey Jones just reported on Sky News that Cameron would probably have to go by 2018 to allow his successor time to put his case to the electorate. Is this the story he intended, or a throwaway line or two that he didn’t expect to make headlines.

  24. Agree with others about being surprised by Camerons announcement. Cannot see what he hopes to achieve by it. There will be plenty of speculation about his replacement and any hopes of talk about a slow burn budget bounce will be gone. In addition if he does manage to hold on his next term will be dominated by questions of when he goes and who replaces him.

  25. A colleague of mine is scottish, and he is adamant the Conservatives will make a come back in the next 5 years there. There is a lot of antipathy towards Labour at the moment.

  26. @GARY O
    Choosing the next Labour cabinet is an incredibly difficult task. After all, the possibles are all very young and only just starting their careers
    with Unite or teaching in Polytechnics. At this point it is impossible to see how they develop.

  27. pretty hopeless campaign from the Tories so far, the Autumn statement wasn’t a good start, the budget did nothing to improve matters, Cameron’s dodging of the debates hasn’t gone down well though he’s probably taken a short term hit there and now this idiotic rambling about next term. They needed to play a blinder to win close to a majority and they have failed, thus far, by some distance.

  28. John

    Agree about the Tories campaign so far – and Cameron now seems to be going back to his pre-election touchy feely honesty stance (remember all those pics with the huskies?).

    Its all very frank and the comments are probably very unfair about his honesty but its giving out a creeping impression that he is thinking about not being Prime Minister quite a bit. Hardly the best pre-election strategy!

  29. I’ve lived through elections since the sixties and this one is hardest to call. Mrs Thatcher and Mr Blair were so clearly outstanding in their day, in a way that none of the current leaders can hope to be. The media and their opponents are so much more hostile and the public are much more disillusioned and cynical. Labour have traditionally found it much harder to reach the kind of compromises you need to form coalitions. My forecast would be some kind of fragile Labour administration relying variously on Lib Dems and others to get their programme through. They will be wary of calling another election as I think the public will punish them.

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