The rest of the the YouGov budget polling is now up on their website here. It suggests a broadly positive reaction to the budget and a significant jump in Osborne’s own ratings. Overall 42% think the budget was fair, 27% unfair. Most people think it will make little difference to the country or to their own finances, but of those who do there more think it will have a positive impact than a negative one. 40% of people think Osborne is doing a good job as Chancellor (up 6 from before the budget) and his lead over Ed Balls on who would make the best Chancellor is up to 20 points.

Just because something is approved of though, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has any effect on voting intention. The second of this week’s Populus polls, also conducted entirely after the budget, has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%. No sign of a budget bounce there – but I’ll repeat the same caveats I made after the YouGov poll last night. We could just be seeing random variation, and news events don’t have an instant effect anyway – these two polls were after the budget, but many responses would have been before the media reaction (just because something has already happened, doesn’t mean the respondent already knows about it). Wait and see if the broader average moves in the week ahead.


168 Responses to “Populus – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 17, GRN 5”

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  1. ProfHoward
    I got a 5, which is exactly what I expected.

  2. I got 7. A leftie and proud to be.

  3. Rivers

    It was all stuff like “do you believe in redistribution” “is there one rule for the rich and another for the poor” etc which seem like statements of the blindingly obvious.

  4. ProfHoward,
    I am a 9 which makes you more left than me.Allegedly.

  5. Latest Election Forecast with change from yesterday

    Con 285 (+1)
    Lab 276 (-2)
    SNP 40
    Lib 26 (+1)

  6. @ Andy Shadrack

    Yeah, I don’t know whether that TNS adjustment is any good or not; I just read somewhere that they do make an adjustment for Greens not standing a full slate.

  7. I got 15

    Sounds approximately correct for me, but I’m disappointed with the absence of “somewhat agree/disagree” as an option.

  8. Andy Shadrack

    I don’t think minor party candidate % “in GB” has any real meaning,

    The Scottish Green Party (SGP) is different from the E&W party and their eye is on Holyrood 2016, where current polling suggests their becoming the 3rd largest party. Their English colleagues have to struggle against having to break through the discriminatory FPTP system.

    Unlike Canada, with its Federal structure, those in England have only one focus for their electoral excitement.

    Last I saw UKIP still had only 9 candidates for the 59 Scottish seats, as opposed to the 40+ boasted of. Reports in the Herald from a “UKIP insider” suggest that Farage has little interest in “his” party north of the border, having passed control to Coburn and Thackery.

  9. Mikey
    VIVA LA REVOLU?ION!!!

  10. Too right Rivers

  11. “Revolution”

  12. Andy Shadrack

    I don’t think minor party candidate % “in GB” has any real meaning,

    The Scottish Green Party (SGP) is different from the E&W party and their eye is on Holyrood 2016, where current polling suggests their becoming the 3rd largest party. Their English colleagues have to struggle against having to break through the discriminatory FPTP system.

    Unlike Canada, with its Federal structure, those in England have only one focus for their electoral excitement.

    Last I saw UKIP still had only 9 candidates for the 59 Scottish seats, as opposed to the 40+ boasted of. Reports in the Herald from a “UKIP insider” suggest that Farage has little interest in “his” party north of the border, having passed control to Coburn and the Scottish chairman [whose surname seems to send auto-mod into a paroxysm of fear]..

  13. Profhoward
    It was rather simplistic, I do wonder who these people who totally disagree are

  14. The article which is with the ‘Centre Test’ is more interesting than the test.

  15. Is there some strange English sexual practice called T-H-A-C-K-E-R-Y which terrifies Anthony’s auto-mod?

    Perhaps his Nanny was accosted with a copy of Vanity Fair?

    We should be told!

  16. @BristolianHoward

    You suggest that the projections offered by the various models could be compared with the Ashcroft constituency results. That is exactly what I have been doing for some time, using the Euclidean Distance metric as a measure of accuracy,

    With Ashcroft, his polling many produce variable swings but overall, if a seat could be vulnerable to a Lab gain from Con at 4,5% swing, it has turned out to be so in his polling. Anthony identified just one outlier that has since reverted to what we would expect under UNS, after being re-polled..

    Are you suggesting here that UNS is currently making accurate projections? If so, perhaps I can remind you that when you make the formal comparisons UNS tends to be further from the mark than either Electionforecast or Electoral Calculus and is occasionally worse than the projections made by May2015.

    It may not be too badly off target in the Lab/Con battleground you mention here. But it’s projections for the LibDems are all over the place, and it consistently understates Ukip advances. There are much better guides to which seats are likely to change hands in the GE.

  17. New thread with @aw’s weekly update

  18. On the question of LD here is the list of seats that Ashscroft polling indicates will fall to Labour/SNP:

    Norwich South
    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester Withington
    Burnley
    East Dunbartonshire
    Argyll and Bute
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    Edinburgh West
    Cardiff Central
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Redcar
    Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk
    Gordon
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
    North East Fife
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber

    In addition Labour will take LD-Con seats of

    Cambridge
    Shefiled Hallam

    To which I will add, to either Green or Labour, the unpolled seat of:

    Bristol West

    I also think LD will also lose:

    Birmingham Yardley
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark
    Orkney and Shetland

    Then Ashcroft has found the following LD-Con marginals falling to Conservative:

    Solihul
    Wells
    St Austell and Newquay to Con or UKIP
    Somerton Frome
    Berwick on Tweed
    North Cornwall – toss up
    Taunton Deane
    Portsmouth South
    North Devon
    Twickenham – ICM Oakeshott

    That leaves 22 seats that the Conservatives may or may not take or that Lbaour or UKIP might leap over the Conservatives to take.

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