Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%.

YouGov’s fieldwork normally runs from around 5pm or so until around 3pm the next day, so all of this poll was conducted after the budget. The Conservatives are back in the lead again, but that isn’t necessarily an impact from the budget – remember YouGov produced several polls last week that had Tory leads too, so what we could just be seeing random variation. We need to wait a bit longer before we can be confident, what we should be looking for is whether or not the broader average in the polls moves away from neck-and-neck, and for that we’ll need some more polling.

Also bear in mind that while all this poll was conducted after the budget was given, it hadn’t necessarily reached respondents yet – many respondents would, for example, have replied before reading this morning’s newspapers, or before watching yesterday’s 10 o’clock news – the impact of political events does not happen instantaneously. There will be more from this poll in tomorrow’s Sun and on the YouGov website tomorrow, and no doubt more polling on the budget in the weekend polls.

Also out tonight is a new Survation Scotland poll for the Daily Record – that shows the big SNP lead holding strong, with Westminster voting intentions of CON 16%, LAB 26%, LDEM 4%, SNP 47%.

108 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 13, GRN 6”

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  1. @oldnat

    I doubt it will have much effect. The wavering kippers are already likely to switch to LAB/CON on election day, the committed kippers probably don’t care about this story because if the many previous race/corruption UKIP news stories haven’t scared them off, this one won’t.

  2. Let me start by saying that I understand the weakness involved in looking at a poll of polls.
    However that said the BBC version for the last year makes very interesting reading for those who are predicting a sudden spurt for one party or the other. Last March labour were on 35% the Tories on 33%. Throughout the year the Labour high was 36% in early April and the low 31% in November the consistent labour position has been at about 33/34%. The Tories have remained consistently on or about 33% with a high of 34% at the end of February beginning of March this year and with lows of 31% sprinkled occasionally through last year but with the consistent position ranging at about 32/33%.

    The drop in 2013 of the significant Labour lead bottomed out in the early summer of 2014, the Tory recovery to about 34% arrived this spring.
    The lack of volatility is remarkable.

    To those who keep expressing IMO or IMHO supported by anecdotal evidence I would quote Terry Pratchett in Jingo about the educational achievements of a character expressing strident views:
    ” He’d been to the school of My Dad Always Said, the College of Stands to Reason and was now a post-graduate student at the University of What Some Bloke in the Pub Told Me”

  3. re: Tim Farron

    Many Tory voters are more left wing economically than the Labour party. A majority of Tory voters support outright re-nationalisation of the railways and utilities!

    Although the modern Tory party are free market fundamentalists, that is a relatively recent phenomenon in the party history. Look at the Tory governments of the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s – they were active state interventionists embarking on mass government housebuilding programmes, of the kind even the current Labour party dare not suggest for fear of upsetting ‘the market’.

    Tim Farron has always been a left-wing Liberal Democrat. That didn’t do him any harm in the past, and I’m not sure why it would suddenly become a huge issue now. Particularly when it’s the left flank of the Lib Dems which is vulnerable to voter hemorrhage.

  4. Some have suggested that the wavering Kippers will return to CON in greater numbers than LAB? Given the fact that Kippers are often the most pessimistic about the economy, their own finances etc in polls, I doubt this will be the case. I think apathy will take most from the wavering Kipper pot!

  5. You’ve got a new follower too, Bramley!

  6. @ JIM JAM

    The best analysis I have found on marginal seats has been produced by the HOC library:

    Of 18 LD-Lab/SNP marginals Ashcroft has polled 16 of them and found that LD would only likely retain two of them:

    Birmingham Yardley
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark

    Of 26 LD Con marginals polled by Ashcroft they retain 12, but interestingly Labour leap frogged over the Conservative to take two:

    Sheffield Hallam

    Finally the two LD-Labour marginals that Ashcroft has so far not polled are Orkney and Shetland and Bristol West.

    I would call Bristol West for either Labour or Green and I think that Orkney and Shetland is more vulnerable than some LD-Conservative marginals, especially if the latest Survation crossbreak is accurate for the Highlands and Islands at:

    SNP 30.7%
    Lab 22.1%
    Con 20.5%
    LD 8.3%
    UKIP 2.7%

    Green party is not running a candidate and nor are the Scottish Christians yet and the undecided is 9.6%

    The other thing I’ll observe is that according to ICM, the company with the “gold pollster standard”, in their last poll before the 2014 EU election they had LD on 15.5% ahead of UKIP on 13.3% in the 2015 UK GE.

    In which case UKIP were at the same level of support in the UK GE as they are now at the height of their EU election popularity.

    LD on the other hand have lost half their 2015 GE support since the European EU, if ICM accurately polled at the time.

    @ OLD NAT

    On UKIP and racism I will simply observe that in five seats in 2010 the combined UKIP, BNP, National Front and socially conservative christian vote exceeded LD 14.2% to 12.5% in the 2010 GE.

    Those seats are:

    Thurrock, where UKIP supposedly has a 3% lead
    Boston and Skegness, where Lord A found the swing to UKIP needed was just 1.5%
    Dudley North swing needed to UKIP 1.5%
    Basildon South and East Thurrock swing needed to UKIP 3%
    Wallsall South swing needed to UKIP 3.5%

    Then there is South Thanet where Survation has Farage ahead, Clacton and Rochester and Strood where I cannot
    see that UKIP voters have any compelling reason not to contiue voting for the Party.

    So that is eights seats I have pointed to so far, and there are at least another seven seats where the margin needed for UKIP to take them is between .5% and 1.5%.

    A number of pollsters keep showing UKIP at 1:5 votes in the Midlands, even when UK wide polling has them at 13% UK wide and that is where a lot of these seats are, or in the Southeast or Southwest.

    So the long and the short of it is that bad press is not going to phase hard core UKIP voters who have been voting for parties like National Front, BNP, the English Democrats, etc.

    And to suggest that these voters will go back to Conservative or Labour after a decade or more of voting differently seems a little far fetched to me.

  7. Thanks everyone for the generous responses to my poem!

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