Lord Ashcroft put out a new batch of constituency polls today, this time revisiting some Conservative -vs- Labour marginals that were very close the last time he polled them. The average swing across the seats polled is 4.4 from Con to Lab, the equivalent of a two point lead in a GB poll. This is obviously bigger that the position in most national polls, but I suspect it’s more of an England effect than a marginal effect – all the seats polled by Ashcroft were in England, and because of the collapse of Labour in Scotland the Con>Lab swing in England is actually bigger than in GB as a whole. Full details of the polls are here.

Most of the seats Ashcroft polled showed results that were pretty similar to the last time he polled them at the tail end of last year, with changes well within the margin of error. The only big shifts were Labour doing much better in Chester than before, the Conservatives doing much better in Worcester than before, and Labour doing much better in Southampton Itchen. I expect the last one is just a reversion to the mean after the previous Southampton Itchen poll produced figures that stuck out like a sore thumb – this poll showed a fairly typical swing in the seat, when Ashcroft’s previous Southampton Itchen poll had shown a very dubious looking swing from Lab to Con.

TNS also released a new poll today with CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 17%, GREEN 4%, OTHER 7%. TNS typically show a significantly larger Labour lead than other pollsters, so the small Tory lead is slightly surprising. It may be a methodology effect – TNS seem to have dropped the weighting by European vote that they introduced earlier this year (though its introduction didn’t seem to make much difference, so its dropping really shouldn’t), and have started reallocating UKIP and Green supporters in constituencies that don’t have UKIP or Green

Finally, tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6% – so a couple of Labour leads from YouGov so far this week. For the record, today’s poll has Labour at their highest this year, UKIP at their lowest this year… but of course, all the normal caveats apply, don’t get overexcited about individual unusual polls, watch the trend across all the pollsters.


755 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft, TNS and YouGov polling”

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  1. Lest anyone forgets that there are/were decent people in every party –

    Carswell has condemned Coburn, and the candidate for Westmorland and Lonsdale has resigned from UKIP citing “issues happening in Scotland: open racism and sanctimonious bullying within the party. This sectarian racist filth in Scotland needs cleaning up. it is a great threat to the Eurosceptic cause and civil society.”

  2. @Pete B

    I realise that there are some who wish the health service to be more priivately run; the problem is allocating the resources where they are needed, rather than where they will make a profit…….

  3. “Sectarian racist filth in Scotland”….. except that, as I think we all know, Coburn is hardly ‘a home grown Scottish politician’, is he? But good to know that he is feeling the wrath of his own (present and ex) colleagues.

  4. John B

    I think that particular epithet was equally directed at UKIP’s Scottish chairman Arthur Minty Thackery.

  5. John B

    I think that particular epithet was equally directed at UKIP’s Scottish chairman.

  6. @AC

    That’s a bit rough on AS. NS is undoubtedly a politician of considerable substance and skill, but AS had to run the show in far tougher times for the SNP. I remember when he returned to the leadership after the SNP had suffered a setback without him and set the SNP on the course to its current position of strength. Not alone, granted, but leadership is so critical for smaller parties that want to break into the mainstream. And he provided it.

  7. For probably very good reason, auto-mod goes into shock at mention of the chairman’s name, and will not allow it to pollute these threads!

  8. @OldNat

    Are you saying Mr Schweppes is a secret lemonade drinker?

  9. @oldnat

    I guess you could say the auto-mod shot Mr Schnapps’ fox

  10. Who is this alcohol laden fizzy drink of who you speak?

    The Scottish chairman’s first name is the same as the wielder of Excalibur

    His second name describes the flavour of an After Eight

    His surname is a mis-spelling of the surname of the author of Vanity Fair.

  11. I do apologise.

    That should have been “of whom you speak”.

  12. @Oldnat

    Oh…that chairman. I thought you meant the other one.

  13. @Pete / John

    Simple test. If for some reason there were no patients (a freak situation where no one got sick) would GPs still get paid?

    If so, public sector. If not, private sector. :))

  14. The YouGov. If it was taken at 3pm yesterday it will not really reflect the budget. We need to wait a full 25 hours to find out the true effect of the budget (is there a YouGov on Friday?)

  15. Statgeek does an insurance firm get paid even if there are no accidents?

  16. Prof Howard

    The YG polling that finishes tomorrow will appear as the ST poll.

  17. There’s a weird gizmo in the graphical swingometer.

    I tapped in Con 39 Lab 36 Lib 16 Rest 10

    The result was Lab on 299, Con on 298

    But the caption said ‘Con short by 28’ instead of referring to the larger party, Lab, in this case.

  18. @John B

    “Coburn is hardly ‘a home grown Scottish politician”

    You mean that Kensington ‘kaylee’ chappie? That’s what he tweeted during a bash at Inverness….”at a Kaylee”.

    He’s a Muppet Numpty Ignoramus

    Can’t decide. :))

  19. @Oldnat

    Uther Plain Chocolate?

  20. Yesterday an SNP member tweeted a really horrible sexist, homophobic tweet to Ruth Davidson. He has been suspended and phoned Davidson and apologised. But like the comments about Yusef – the politicians from the main parties together with practically the whole of the Scottish twitter crowd condemned the comments directed at Yusef and Ruth and tweeted messages of support.

    The positive from these incidents is that, racism, homophobia & misogyny is simply not tolerated anymore. It socially unacceptable and people that hold such views are shunned.

  21. @Prof

    Perhaps for a while. Eventually people will assess the risk, and ignore the premium.

  22. Contractors providing a service for another organisation get paid whether they end up providing it or not.

    GPs a are self-employed, PCTs are private businesses and they are contracted by the NHS for a fixed fee to provide a service should it be demanded.

  23. Statgeek

    Since he spells his surname phonetically, I suspect he does the same with all words.

  24. Less of the cryptic crosswords, OLDNAT.

    Arthur Mint? Never heard of him.

  25. @JimJam

    Not really very familiar with the Kaiser Chiefs music so missed the fact that your description of UKIP voters was actually a verse from their song, the Angry Mob.

    Accordingly,I hereby withdraw my accusation of patronising nonsense, but the bard of Leeds, Ricky Wilson, more latterly star of The Voice, isn’t quite my go-to reference for where it’s at political wisdom.

    Or wisdom of any sort, really.

    Now, if it was Gary Barlow you were talking about….

    :-)

  26. Andy – thanks. It’s nice to have someone agree with one, especially when it’s about something that’s true!

  27. RAF
    @AC

    “That’s a bit rough on AS. NS is undoubtedly a politician of considerable substance and skill, but AS had to run the show in far tougher times for the SNP. I remember when he returned to the leadership after the SNP had suffered a setback without him and set the SNP on the course to its current position of strength. Not alone, granted, but leadership is so critical for smaller parties that want to break into the mainstream. And he provided it”
    _____

    I wasn’t being critical of Alex Salmond and for me personally he is my top politician of all time. He has not only transformed the fortunes of the SNP but has also transformed the direction of British politics.

    NS has her own style of approach which is less confrontational and I think appeals more to voters but there is no getting away from the fact that AS very rarely if at all came off worse when up against an opponent.

    Westminster will be enriched by his presence I hear them shout!!

  28. @oldnat

    After Eights taste ‘misty’ in Scotland?

    This is getting a bit complex

  29. OLDNAT
    Lest anyone forgets that there are/were decent people in every party –
    Carswell has condemned Coburn, and the candidate for Westmorland and Lonsdale has resigned from UKIP citing “issues happening in Scotland: open racism and sanctimonious bullying within the party. This sectarian racist filth in Scotland needs cleaning up. it is a great threat to the Eurosceptic cause and civil society.”
    ___________

    A resounding thumbs up. :-)

  30. Prof Howard

    I tried to bring you his name – but auto-mod obviously is repulsed by any mention of him.

    NB His middle name is an adjective, not a noun, so you are a letter short, and Mr Mint didn’t write Vanity Fair, so you are missing a surname. :-)

  31. Apparently we’re getting the normal Survation/Daily Record poll tonight.

  32. Calum Findlay

    I saw that on Twitter. Clearly Unison are unclear on Scottish polling. They could have saved themselves a bit of cash by not asking the VI questions, and just piggy backing on the DR poll.

  33. @ProfHoward & JohnB

    Been out but earlier you both asked about morale / JM’s prospects.

    My feeling is JM will probably hang on. The polling showing it as a two horse SNP vs Lab race may help squeeze some of the softer Con vote to Murphy.

    If he does lose the lack of a Green Candidate may prove crucial.

    As regards Morale it’s a bit of a strange one. Of the political circles I move in (not in Jim’s constituency and I’m not a party member of any party but I know many politicians for my sins) the SNP folk I know are cautiously optimistic but strangely reluctant to believe the polls.

    Amongst Labour folk there are some in complete denial and some who almost seem to feel it would be better to lose disastrously to prove the choice of Murphy was a mistake. Suspect that reflects the crowd of LiS folk I know more than anything else!

  34. One of the Diddy Men was Dickie Mint. Is that helpful?

  35. Very nice, sympathetic portrait of Nicola Sturgeon on BBC News.

    Comes across as a really likable, sincere, person from a really down to earth, normal family.

    Excellent person.

  36. @Old Nat

    Lest anyone forget !

    Conjunctive, I think.

    However the sentiments were, of course, entirely to be supported.

  37. “Westminster will be enriched by his presence I hear them shout!!”

    Who says Salmond will win Gordon? Well, Alex Salmond, obviously, but one would hope the electors get some say in the matter.

  38. @Prof Howard

    She’s from Ayrshire. How could that possibly by ‘normal’?

    :-)

  39. Carswell seems a thoroughly decent bloke.

    A shame Murdo Fraser didn’t win and tempt him North to help form the Scottish Progressive Party.

    The 2 of them could have setup a really interesting right of centre Scottish party starting with a blank sheet of paper (insert your own Scottish Tory joke here).

  40. ‘be’, not ‘by’.

    A joke, of course.

  41. BTW I can’t see a saltire at the top of this thread.

  42. @NorthumbrianScot

    You mean the membership list?

  43. Thanks Northumbrian Scot.

  44. @Bristolianhoward

    Of course the voters will have their say, once they’ve been advised correctly.

    As for the lack of a saltire, the East India Company and the Honk King and Shanghai bank didn’t have saltires either but that never stopped the Scots from taking over…….

    It’s up to the rest of you to say something which will shut us up…….

  45. BristolianHoward

    I can’t see a Bristolian flag either.

    http://worldofflags.co.uk/index.php?app=gbu0&ns=prodshow&ref=City-of-Bristol-Flag

  46. CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6%

  47. Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 – CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/

  48. Kong not King.

    Enough!

    Early rise tomorrow and a long day, so I bid you all “farewell” and “good night”

  49. @Bristolian Howard

    Somewhat unusually I don’t think Alex Salmond has ever (personally) lost an election.

    Somehow given the state of the Lib Dems in Scotland I don’t think he’ll be changing that this year.

  50. Next one up will be the 700th.

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