YouGov’s weekly Sunday Times poll is now up here. Topline voting intention are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%.

Most of the survey was made up of questions about the budget and government spending. If George Osborne has money to spend in the budget 44% would prefer it goes on public services, 25% on tax cuts, 20% on the deficit. In general people would like to see any spending focused up helping low paid people in work (59%), followed by people looking for work (31%), small businesses (25%) and homebuyers (25%). People saving for their retirement, incidentally, comes bottom.

On specific measures most of those YouGov tested got the thumbs up – the most widespread approval was for increasing the personal tax allowance again (83%), limiting child benefit to three children (73%) and raising the NI threshold (71%). Letting people buy back annuities they bought when they were compulsory gets low support, but mainly because of a very high don’t know (I expect people simply don’t understand the change). The only measure that was actually opposed by more people than supported it was cutting taxes on alcohol (33% would support, 50% would oppose).

Moving onto government spending in general the areas people would most like to see protected from government cuts are the NHS (79%), education (50%) and policing (35%). The areas people most wanted to see cut were overseas aid (66%), welfare benefits (36%) and environment and climate change (29%). As I discussed in the weekly round up, defence and welfare were unusual in being issues that had both significant numbers of people wanting to prioritise them for cuts and significant numbers of people wanting to protect them from cuts.

Asked specifically about whether the government should commit to 2% of GDP spending on defence, 52% think they should, 27% that they should not. Asked the equivalent question about overseas aid only 24% think the government should commit to the 0.7% target, 59% think they should not. On Trident, 31% think it should be replaced with an equally robust system, 29% replaced with a cheaper system, 24% scrapped completely.

Outside of Scotland itself, the idea of the SNP being in a position of influence at Westminster is seen negatively – 63% think it would be a bad thing if they held the balance of power in Westminster, 64% think it would be bad thing if they were involved in a coalition. Overall 53% of people think that Labour should rule out doing a deal with the SNP, but this is largely made up of Labour’s opponents, their own supporters are far more split over the idea. If there was a choice between a minority Labour government or an SNP/Lab coalition with a majority, Labour voters would be evenly divided but if the alternative was another Tory government Labour voters would back a deal with the SNP by 6 to 1.


527 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 5”

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  1. I’ve just started a chart of Election Forecast’s – er – forecasts. The only change from yesterday to today is that they now have Lab gaining an extra seat from Libdems. I have no idea why.

  2. PETE B

    Where does one see your chart?

  3. Alec

    Why are you calling “No” – “a stupid boy”?

    I disagreed with No voters, but lots of them were perfectly sensible.

  4. What appears on the ballot paper in Scotland?

    I thought there was dispensation to stick a “Scottish” prefix with your party without needing to be a distinct party. (Scottish UKIP anyone or Scottish SNP just for the sake of recursion?).

  5. @Pete B

    The best thing about EFUK’s site is how quickly they update it. It’s much faster than any of the others.

  6. ProfHoward
    It’s just for my own use for now (I only started today)! If anything interesting turns up, I’ll make it available one way or another.

  7. Alan

    I think it’s Scottish Labour. That’s what they call themselves. I always think the courteous thing is to call people what they want to be called.

  8. @ Prof Howard

    “Scottish Labour” is what they call themselves

    It is, but who can be bothered typing the full thing every time?

  9. Conservative Uxtoxeter unitary team. Time to stop I think!

  10. RAF
    Agree about EF site. That’s why I decided to keep track of their changing forecasts. I kept finding myself thinking things like “Didn’t they have Labour 10 seats higher yesterday?”

  11. Amber Star:

    I think abbreviations based on Scottish Labour, e.g. SL or ScL or Scot Lab), would be the most respectful.

    I always think its most respectful to use the name for others that the people themselves prefer to use.

  12. @ Pete B

    I’ve just started a chart of Election Forecast’s – er – forecasts. The only change from yesterday to today is that they now have Lab gaining an extra seat from Libdems. I have no idea why.

    It might be that they’ve added today’s ICM to their polling figures. ICM is usually quite good for the LDs but today’s ICM had them on their lowest score this parliament.

    The write up is in the Gruniad so I can’t post a link because the Graun is auto-modded from UKPR.

  13. Interesting to see that the SNP leader has today apparently issued voting advice to people in other component parts of the UK:

    In Wales: SNP leader recommends Plaid.
    In England: SNP leader recommends Green.

    Does anyone know SNP leader has advice for people in NI?

  14. SNP have parliamentary grouping with Plaid and Green. That is why she is recommending a vote for them

  15. @profhoward

    Fantastic. Advice from the separatists on how to vote in the UK general election.

    So this is what it feels like to be informed.

  16. Surely a vote for the Greens in England could let the Conservatives in, and keep the SNP out of power. Sounds like she is trying to irritate L UK.

  17. @John J

    Labour have more support in Scotland than the Conservatives. Therefore it suits the SNP to have Tories in power, because they can keep saying “Westminster doesn’t represent Scotland”. The SNP want Labour as weak as possible.

    Remember a functioning UK is exactly what the nationalists don’t want, because the nationalists think the UK shouldn’t exist.

  18. “I think abbreviations based on Scottish Labour, e.g. SL or ScL or Scot Lab), would be the most respectful.”

    Can you expect people to use LiS and then complain if we use LiE?

  19. JOHN J.
    Good Evening to you. All of politics is demeaned by bad word games such as this stuff and left and right all play with such games.

  20. Having read all the “predictions” and The Kellner one in particular is any one able to tell me that Electoral Calculus published today from polls Feb 14 to yesterday is simply to be ignored or not based on reliable evidence compared to what we see elsewhere???
    Their seat figures are remarkably different.
    Lab 310
    Con 255
    Lib 1
    N ireland 18
    Plaid 4
    UKIP 1
    SNP 46
    Green 1
    They claim to be most accurate for 2010. Are there reasons , not opinions, that should mean THEIR figures are wildly wrong. Could they be pro Labour ??? The other figures are quite simmilar.

  21. Omnishambles
    It’s puzzling to me that most polls are still GB-only. I often see the excuse that NI vote for different parties, with different politics, so they’re not very relevant. But the last part is no longer true.
    I think the reason they’re excluded is more of a practical one – since the NI population is so small and the parties are different their VI figures would just bounce around the ones and zeroes which wouldn’t be very illuminating. More importantly the crossbreaks would be either comically small, in which case they’d be of very little use, or disproportionately expensive, which the client will probably balk at (and they’d still be less accurate than we’d like). I don’t know if it’s standard practice to weight for religion etc in NI because of the religious/political issues there but if it is then that probably makes it more difficult as well. I imagine it works out better both in terms of accuracy and economically to have a fewer & less frequent proper NI polls than a glut of rubbish crossbreaks. I do agree with you that it would be good to see more Ni polls though.

    John J
    Surely a vote for the Greens in England could let the Conservatives in, and keep the SNP out of power. Sounds like she is trying to irritate L UK.
    There was a piece in the Spectator today to similar effect:
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/nicola-sturgeons-baffling-electoral-logic-vote-green-to-get-labour-and-the-snp/

  22. One of the reasons that LD appear to be on 8% GB wide, is because the LD have surged to 9% – 10% in Scotland. Have any of our Scoittish contributors noticed this upsurge in LD support?

    Election trivia: Conservative and Labour are very close to having full slates with Con needing only 3 candidates in England and Labour 2.

    Liberal still need 66 in GB, UKIP 76 and Green 123 :)

  23. ChrisLane1945
    JOHN J.
    Good Evening to you. All of politics is demeaned by bad word games such as this stuff and left and right all play with such games.

    Do you often read the comments on US news sites? I used to but some are even worse than Guido’s. Every second comment has some awful forced wordplay meant to smear a politician or party, it’s vitually unreadable.

  24. ChrisLane
    I see you had a good win against Highcliffe in December.

  25. @ David

    Regarding UKIP 2nd position, in many seats, not likely
    Why, they do not have the organised man power.
    Rabble army.
    European Elections, completely different to GE, different ball game.
    Their main focus is Thanet, to get Nigel elected.
    Yes you may see the odd UKIP poster here and there.
    Unless the UKIP candidate is using his own resources to fund their own campaign, no chance

  26. @omnishambles

    “Remember a functioning UK is exactly what the nationalists don’t want, because the nationalists think the UK shouldn’t exist.”

    That is false logic. The SNP need to demonstrate that they are effective and responsible to build the case for independence and secure support in Scotland for another referendum which is likely to be many years away. Precipitating a crisis in the UK would have exactly the opposite effect on polling VI which they want to achieve.

  27. The SNP could well be good for NI, Wales, and England, as they work in Westminster, alongside the other parties, for greater fairness and prosperity for all, which seems to be what they are aiming for.

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