A new YouGov poll for Channel Four news has asked about voting intention in Scotland in both the forthcoming Scottish Parliament elections, the local elections and the Westminister Parliament.

Voting intentions for Westminister are CON 19%, LAB 34%, LDEM 15%, SNP 27%. Interestingly, while the general impression amongst most commentators is that the swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Britain as a whole has not been reflected by any advance in Scotland, comparing these figures to the results in Scotland at the last general election shows there isn’t actually much contrast. This poll shows a 4% swing from Labour to the Tories in Scotland (the Conservatives up 3, Labour down 5), while the last YouGov poll in Great Britain as a whole also showed a 4% swing from Labour to the Tories (though with the Conservatives up 4 and Labour down 4).

The big beneficaries of the drop in Labour and Lib Dem support North of the border is obviously the SNP, and the Conservatives are so weak in much of Scotland that their modest increase in support is not likely ot bring them many seats, but in terms of change to their Westminister support then judging on the lastest polls there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference between the swing in Scotland and the swing elsewhere.

Moving on, the figures for the Scottish Parliamentary election, with changes from the last Scottish YouGov poll for the Telegraph (there is a marginally more recent YouGov poll done for the SNP, but the question wording and order in this poll are more comparable to the Telegraph one) are – in the constituency vote CON 14% (-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 14%(-1), SNP 33%(+1), GRN 5%(+1), SSP 1%(nc). In the regional vote the figures are CON 15%(-2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(-4), SNP 33%(+5), GRN 7% (-1), SSP 1%(-1), Solidarity 1%.

John Curtice suggests that this would result in the SNP winning 45 seats in the Scottish Parliament, with Labour on 42, the Conservatives on 18, the Lib Dems on 14 and the Greens on 7. Under those circumstances, either Labour or the SNP would need to come to a deal with more than one of the smaller parties in order to have an overall majority.

Finally, voting intention in the local authority elections in Scotland stands at CON 15%, LAB 31%, LDEM 15%, SNP 30%.

UPDATE: Another Scottish YouGov poll in the Sunday Times, carried out between the 10th and 12th January, has Westminster voting intention at CON 16%, LAB 35%, LDEM 15%, SNP 28%. In the Scottish Parliament constituency vote the split is CON 13%, LAB 29%, LDEM 18%, SNP 35% and the regional voting intention is CON 14%, LAB 30%, LDEM 14%, SNP 32%.


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